Wet subtropical storm possible for Florida this weekend

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:29 PM GMT on October 05, 2011

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A large low pressure system with heavy rains is expected to develop over Cuba and South Florida on Saturday. The counter-clockwise flow around this low will bring strong winds and heavy rains to much of the Florida coast on Saturday, and these conditions will spread northwards to Georgia by Sunday and South Carolina by Monday. Most of the models develop this system into a tropical or subtropical storm, but the potential location of such a storm is still murky. The ECMWF model predicts the storm will form in the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Monday, then move north into the Florida Panhandle on Tuesday. If this track verifies, the oil rigs off the coast of Southeast Louisiana may experience a one or two day period of sustained winds above tropical storm force Monday or Tuesday. The GFS and NOGAPS models put the storm on the other side of Florida, over the Northwestern Bahamas, and predict the storm will move northwards and hit North Carolina on Wednesday. The UKMET model is in-between, developing the storm right on top of Florida. Since the storm is going to be getting its start as a cold-cored upper-level low pressure system with some dry air aloft, it will probably start out subtropical, with a large band of heavy rain developing well north of the center, bringing heavy rains to a wide region of the Southeast U.S. Subtropical storms cannot intensify quickly, due to their lack of an organized inner core. If the storm follows the path of the GFS model, it could be similar to Subtropical Storm Four of October 4, 1974. That storm brought 10 - 14 inches of rain to the east coast of Florida and strong onshore winds of 30 - 40 mph that caused beach erosion and coastal flooding. The extended forecast discussion from NOAA's Hydrometeorological Prediction Center has a more technical discussion of this coming storm for those interested.


Figure 1. Rainfall forecast for the 5-day period ending at 8 am EDT Monday, October 10, 2011. The storm system affecting Florida this weekend is expected to bring up to 7 inches of rain along the coast. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

Tropical Storm Philippe no threat to land
In the middle Atlantic, Tropical Storm Philippe is about to interact with a frontal system and turn northeastward out to sea. Satellite loops show Philippe is a small system with a modest amount heavy thunderstorm activity, with the surface circulation partially exposed to view by wind shear. Wind shear will remain in the moderate range today, which may allow the storm to intensify into a hurricane, as predicted by several of the intensity forecast models. By Thursday, wind shear will rise to a very high 30 - 50 knots, which should cause rapid weakening. Philippe will not trouble any land areas.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Philippe. The band of clouds to the northwest of Philippe is associated with a cold front that is expected to absorb the storm and recurve it to the northeast on Thursday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Evening Grothar.


Hello, my friend to the North. Looks like we are going to get wet this nice holiday week-end. (How have you been?)
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Quoting (Post # 315)Skyepony:


Excellent Graphics Sky...
Brings it down to my level Ha!!
Thanks again and keep posting !!
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Quoting Tazmanian:




will you guys plzs stop that i will come and go has i plzs


Definitely.
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Quoting Tazmanian:




will you guys plzs stop that i will come and go has i plzs

Yes Taz, you, along with the rest of us, have a life outside of this blog.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
Evening Grothar.
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Quoting Tazmanian:




will you guys plzs stop that i will come and go has i plzs

OK.
Good to see you too, Taz!
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Quoting pottery:

Probably.




will you guys plzs stop that i will come and go has i plzs
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Quoting pottery:

Precisely!
On all counts.
LOLOL

good to see you Gro.


You too, pott!
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Quoting Grothar:


Indubitably.

We have a Winner!
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Anyone waiting to validate the Psychic Twins prediction of a Cat 4/5 affecting FL and the east coast this fall. Equinox was Sept 23rd. I am personally intrigued, especially looking at the GFS toying at a future storm in the Caribbean.
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Quoting Grothar:


to use one's mind to formulate an opinion based upon observation and/or experience. To ponder and reflect on any particular subject in which the outcome may differ from the observers current point of view. I could go on, but I know or I think you know the rest.

Precisely!
On all counts.
LOLOL

good to see you Gro.
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Quoting Drakoen:


lol?


He was previously known as KerryInNOLA. It's become customary for me to call him that.
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Quoting pottery:
Dependin'


Indubitably.
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Quoting clwstmchasr:
Where is Taz? Please don't tell me he has left the blog too? If he was here tonight he would have easily had a couple of people banned.

Probably.
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Quoting Grothar:


Perhaps.


Of Course!
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Quoting pottery:

Define 'think'.


to use one's mind to formulate an opinion based upon observation and/or experience. To ponder and reflect on any particular subject in which the outcome may differ from the observers current point of view. I could go on, but I know or I think you know the rest.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Kerry, I respect you immensely, but you need to understand that Grey et al do NOT predict the amount of landfalls and overall land impacts -- just the storms. And they've been relatively accurate. True, we've seen an unusual amount of weak storms, but we still have two whole months to catch up with the hurricanes.


lol?
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30693
Dependin'
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Quoting Grothar:


Perhaps.

Possibly.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
Quoting hyperstratocumulus:


MAYBE!


Perhaps.
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Quoting Grothar:


Yes!


MAYBE!
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Quoting Grothar:
I think the Caribbean and Atlantic storms will be big.
oh heyy
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Quoting Grothar:


Yes!
You should not, but who am I to tell you what to do.
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Quoting Darryl7:
NO


Yes!
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Quoting Grothar:
I think the Caribbean and Atlantic storms will be big.

Define 'think'.
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Quoting Grothar:
I think the Caribbean and Atlantic storms will be big.
NO
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For a weather related post, here's Philippe, who has barely changed in intensity for the past two days:
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
I think the Caribbean and Atlantic storms will be big.
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Quoting donna1960ruled:
The PLANFALF Model tskes Major Subtropical Storm Quiznos into Wilmington as a Cat 2. The interesting thing about the PLANFALF model this year is that it always predicts a direct hit by every wave/depression/storm on Wilmington, NC. Once, it did predict that pre-Irene would strike Wilmington Delaware....and was correct. All we can do now is pray, and wait for the trusty McTavish numbers. Stay tuned.
LOL...this model is a classic! I mean a perfect 0-16 so far, reminds me of the Lions, can they make it up to the 0-26 Bucs, though? I mean these records are always remembered for futility. Stay tune it remains to be seen :-P
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This is taken from the 5PM Advisory Discussion for Ophelia on September 21:

"THE EXPERIMENTAL
COAMPS-TC MODEL...WHICH HAS BEEN A GOOD PERFORMER SO FAR THIS
YEAR...SHOWS DISSIPATION BY 72 HOURS WHILE THE GFDL MODEL PREDICTS
OPHELIA TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD."

Maybe the GFDL deserves more merit than given.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32692
Quoting hunkerdown:
what do you expect when the majority of people on here have not yet reach puberty...
And the ones that have have never reached maturity.
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Quoting hunkerdown:
what do you expect when the majority of people on here have not yet reach puberty...

Believe it or not, there are only a select few that post here like that.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32692
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
LOL

This place has become so immature.
what do you expect when the majority of people on here have not yet reach puberty...
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Quoting jrweatherman:
I see our Anti-Government, athiest losers are out in full force tonite.
It's tonight, not tonite.

:)
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Quoting bluenosedave:


Actually, I rather like the scene on this blog lately. Trolls will be trolls, but I seem to have most of them on ignore, so no worries. I can duck in here once or twice a day, to get the info I want, which is all I'm interested in. I'm glad the folks who enjoy lots of friendly off-topic chit-chat have found themselves a new home; good for them. Personally I'm happier with a couple hundred posts per day that I can keep up with than thousands that I can't, most of which contained little or no useful info. I'm glad you're still posting for one, Tom.


lol I know what you mean there. During July and August when we're getting several thousand comments per blog it's pretty tough to keep up, especially for me since I like to read through most of the comments.

Anyway, yea, ignoring the people isn't that hard at all, but I was commenting on the shape of the blog as a whole. I mean if you were just someone who randomly stumbled upon this blog and started reading the comments and the reports of people getting their mail filled with thousands of spam messages, I think you'd be pretty quick to hightail it out of here.
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Quoting TomTaylor:

I don't have high standards on the internet; it's pretty hard to regulate and therefore immaturity seems to go hand and hand with the internet. Nonetheless, the scene on this blog is pathetic.


Actually, I rather like the scene on this blog lately. Trolls will be trolls, but I seem to have most of them on ignore, so no worries. I can duck in here once or twice a day, to get the info I want, which is all I'm interested in. I'm glad the folks who enjoy lots of friendly off-topic chit-chat have found themselves a new home; good for them. Personally I'm happier with a couple hundred posts per day that I can keep up with than thousands that I can't, most of which contained little or no useful info. I'm glad you're still posting for one, Tom.
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Quoting Chicklit:

Not really.
If you flag, ignore, and don't quote they disappear pretty quickly.

Very well stated. Now let's see if it works in this instance.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13729
Quoting FrankZapper:
Wooptee do!

I still maintain that this predicted storm won't amount to anything.

And anybody who thinks this season lived up to Grey and Co, Bastardi and many others hype is in denial.


Kerry, I respect you immensely, but you need to understand that Grey et al do NOT predict the amount of landfalls and overall land impacts -- just the storms. And they've been relatively accurate. True, we've seen an unusual amount of weak storms, but we still have two whole months to catch up with the hurricanes.
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Quoting ClaySFL:
RIP Steve Jobs. Truly a man that gave the world his brillance and shared it.
And made a billion or so.
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315. Skyepony (Mod)
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
I just took a look at the 18z GFS and it shows the system riding up or just off the east coast of FL. albeit weak the lowest I see is a 1000mb. in the red numbers, not sure what the difference is between the other 2 numbers bolded in black? Also, the GFS shows a system forming near the Yucatan around the 16th & 17th. next Sunday time frame.

The Florida storm hits Georgia in that run(WTH?!) as a sub-1000mb storm, I agree on intensity, but a landfall in Georgia is just bizarre. The timing is pretty good though, with the Carib. Storm forming next weekend.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
Got our first real winter storm today. Pretty weak storm (lows in the 50s, highs in the 60s, rainfall totals around half an inch, snow levels near 7/8000ft) if you're someone from anywhere other than SoCal, but for us, this is a pretty decent storm, especially for early October.




^Shown in composite refelectivity to make the storm look more impressive
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RIP Steve Jobs. Truly a man that gave the world his brillance and shared it.
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Quoting Seflhurricane:
by when does it seem the NHC will start to mention a low chance potential area


When possible development is within the 48hr window dictated by their tropical weather outlook product.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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