Wet subtropical storm possible for Florida this weekend

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:29 PM GMT on October 05, 2011

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A large low pressure system with heavy rains is expected to develop over Cuba and South Florida on Saturday. The counter-clockwise flow around this low will bring strong winds and heavy rains to much of the Florida coast on Saturday, and these conditions will spread northwards to Georgia by Sunday and South Carolina by Monday. Most of the models develop this system into a tropical or subtropical storm, but the potential location of such a storm is still murky. The ECMWF model predicts the storm will form in the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Monday, then move north into the Florida Panhandle on Tuesday. If this track verifies, the oil rigs off the coast of Southeast Louisiana may experience a one or two day period of sustained winds above tropical storm force Monday or Tuesday. The GFS and NOGAPS models put the storm on the other side of Florida, over the Northwestern Bahamas, and predict the storm will move northwards and hit North Carolina on Wednesday. The UKMET model is in-between, developing the storm right on top of Florida. Since the storm is going to be getting its start as a cold-cored upper-level low pressure system with some dry air aloft, it will probably start out subtropical, with a large band of heavy rain developing well north of the center, bringing heavy rains to a wide region of the Southeast U.S. Subtropical storms cannot intensify quickly, due to their lack of an organized inner core. If the storm follows the path of the GFS model, it could be similar to Subtropical Storm Four of October 4, 1974. That storm brought 10 - 14 inches of rain to the east coast of Florida and strong onshore winds of 30 - 40 mph that caused beach erosion and coastal flooding. The extended forecast discussion from NOAA's Hydrometeorological Prediction Center has a more technical discussion of this coming storm for those interested.


Figure 1. Rainfall forecast for the 5-day period ending at 8 am EDT Monday, October 10, 2011. The storm system affecting Florida this weekend is expected to bring up to 7 inches of rain along the coast. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

Tropical Storm Philippe no threat to land
In the middle Atlantic, Tropical Storm Philippe is about to interact with a frontal system and turn northeastward out to sea. Satellite loops show Philippe is a small system with a modest amount heavy thunderstorm activity, with the surface circulation partially exposed to view by wind shear. Wind shear will remain in the moderate range today, which may allow the storm to intensify into a hurricane, as predicted by several of the intensity forecast models. By Thursday, wind shear will rise to a very high 30 - 50 knots, which should cause rapid weakening. Philippe will not trouble any land areas.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Philippe. The band of clouds to the northwest of Philippe is associated with a cold front that is expected to absorb the storm and recurve it to the northeast on Thursday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Grothar:


He has been doing that for years. Have you ever seen it before?


Nope
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Quoting hydrus:
Very busy..I even tried to post a chart off of the Crown Weather site and blew it..just isnt my night. I will get something up before I sign off..;)


I hope so. Which chart was it?
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Quoting Drakoen:


Seems like everyone is doing a video now lol.


He has been doing that for years. Have you ever seen it before?
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Quoting Grothar:


Ever watch 28Storms.com videos. Think you might find it interesting. Let me know what you think.

Link
Big changes coming for the U.S. Tropics will become active again, and severe weather outbreaks for the mid-Link west and mid-south.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21409
Quoting Grothar:


Ever watch 28Storms.com videos. Think you might find it interesting. Let me know what you think.

Link


Seems like everyone is doing a video now lol.
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Philippe looks to be intensifying as convection builds towards the center of circulation. By the way, this winter I will be keeping an eye out for winter storms and their potential. i will be posting as much as possible with an unbiased opinion given that I am living in SC now.
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Quoting Grothar:


And I see nothing has changed with you, still can't post those Raleigh weather maps. Don't you remember anything I taught you?????? How do you doing hydrus?
Very busy..I even tried to post a chart off of the Crown Weather site and blew it..just isnt my night. I will get something up before I sign off..;)
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21409
Quoting Drakoen:


So that's what they are now huh? If only I could do more. Tidbits from Sunshine State? lol. Yes I am back in school.


Ever watch 28Storms.com videos. Think you might find it interesting. Let me know what you think.

Link
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Quoting JLPR2:


Good good.
Finishing my bachelor's at a steady rate.

¿Cómo te va todo por allá? :D


Lentos y seco. LOL
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Quoting pottery:
Today's News--

Sad, Jobs death.
Glad, Palins retreat.
Only 56 years old..Good evening Pott.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21409
Quoting Grothar:


Drak-mon! Been watching your little updates. Doing good as usual. Back in school again?


So that's what they are now huh? If only I could do more. Tidbits from Sunshine State? lol. Yes I am back in school.
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0 Z NAM much different from 18 Z - not as bullish on development and more broad - doesn't even close off the low as it did in the 18 Z run

Link
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Quoting hydrus:
I feel like I went back in time a few years. It is cool to see the bloggers that I first met here all posting at the same time. Hope you are doing better Gro..The GFS has the Florida East Coast in its sights....(for now)..


And I see nothing has changed with you, still can't post those Raleigh weather maps. Don't you remember anything I taught you?????? How do you doing hydrus?
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398. JLPR2
Quoting Grothar:


Como andas?


Good good.
Finishing my bachelor's at a steady rate.

¿Cómo te va todo por allá? :D
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Quoting VolunteerGator:


Evening Gro. How have you been?

S67
Sorry, i answered your question with the same question.

I have been good except I have to chat on 2 blogs to touch base with all of the cool online weather folk I came to know over the past year. It's all good though.

Formerly, Scooster67
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000
WTNT22 KNHC 060238
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 48
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011
0300 UTC THU OCT 06 2011

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.4N 61.0W AT 06/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 75NE 75SE 45SW 45NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 60SE 60SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.4N 61.0W AT 06/0300Z
AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.1N 61.1W

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 27.4N 60.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 45SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 28.5N 58.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 29.3N 56.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 30SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 105SE 75SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 30.8N 53.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 75SE 50SW 20NW.
34 KT...120NE 150SE 120SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 37.0N 45.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 90SE 60SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 200SE 240SW 240NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 43.5N 41.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 52.0N 33.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.4N 61.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Member Since: August 18, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 994

000
WTNT32 KNHC 060238
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE ADVISORY NUMBER 48
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011
1100 PM AST WED OCT 05 2011

...PHILIPPE NOW MOVING EAST OF DUE NORTH WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.4N 61.0W
ABOUT 465 MI...750 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.0 WEST. PHILIPPE
IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE TONIGHT. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH
AND INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE AND PHILIPPE COULD BECOME A
HURRICANE ON THURSDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Member Since: August 18, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 994

000
WTNT42 KNHC 060240
TCDAT2

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 48
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011
1100 PM AST WED OCT 05 2011

PHILIPPE HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE CENTRAL CONVECTION...WHILE AN OUTER CONVECTIVE BAND IS PRESENT
IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN 65
KT FROM TAFB AND 55 KT FROM SAB...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS
55 KT. ANALYSES FROM THE SHIPS MODEL AND CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY
OF WISCONSIN SHOW THAT THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS DECREASED TO
ABOUT 10 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 010/6. PHILIPPE IS RECURVING TO THE EAST
OF A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...AND THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD WITH SOME
ACCELERATION DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. A MORE NORTHERLY MOTION MAY
OCCUR AFTER 72 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL AND
MERGES WITH THE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE
FORECAST TRACK. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
TRACK AND LIES IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

WHILE PHILIPPE HAS NOT YET STRENGTHENED...THERE WILL BE A 12-24 HOUR
PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHEAR BEFORE THE CYCLONE ENCOUNTERS THE
STRONGER WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH. FOR THE MOST PART...THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE STILL CALLS FOR PHILIPPE TO BECOME A HURRICANE
DURING THAT TIME...AND SO DOES THE INTENSITY FORECAST. AFTER 24
HOURS...INCREASING SHEAR SHOULD CAUSE A WEAKENING TREND.
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD BEGIN IN ABOUT 48 HOURS AND BE
COMPLETE BY 72 HOURS. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS AGREE ON PHILIPPE
MAINTAINING GALE TO STORM INTENSITY AS AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW...AND
THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0300Z 26.4N 61.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 27.4N 60.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 07/0000Z 28.5N 58.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 07/1200Z 29.3N 56.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 08/0000Z 30.8N 53.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 09/0000Z 37.0N 45.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 10/0000Z 43.5N 41.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 11/0000Z 52.0N 33.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Member Since: August 18, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 994
Today's News--

Sad, Jobs death.
Glad, Palins retreat.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
...PHILIPPE NOW MOVING EAST OF DUE NORTH WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...
11:00 PM AST Wed Oct 5
Location: 26.4°N 61.0°W
Max sustained: 65 mph
Moving: N at 7 mph
Min pressure: 997 mb

Link Ahem. Advisory Time.
Member Since: August 18, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 994
Quoting Drakoen:
GROTHAR!?!?!?!?!


Drak-mon! Been watching your little updates. Doing good as usual. Back in school again?
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Quoting Grothar:


Okay, Clay! Just waiting for the big storms this week.


Me too. it would be nice to get that storm before the rainy season finishes up soon.
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I feel like I went back in time a few years. It is cool to see the bloggers that I first met here all posting at the same time. Hope you are doing better Gro..The GFS has the Florida East Coast in its sights....(for now)..
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21409
Quoting VolunteerGator:


Evening Gro. How have you been?

S67


Hey, there 67! Getting older by the day, but other than that just been in lurk-mode.
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GROTHAR!?!?!?!?!
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Quoting Grothar:


Hello, my friend to the North. Looks like we are going to get wet this nice holiday week-end. (How have you been?)


Evening Gro. How have you been?

S67
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Quoting ClaySFL:


I'm good Grothar, how are you?


Okay, Clay! Just waiting for the big storms this week.
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I wouldn't mind a rainy couple of days off for a change. I would in a windowless office, it will be nice to watch.
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Quoting ProgressivePulse:



If it's any consolation, we've all been in and out of sickness the past month as well. Indeed the max QPF is up to 8.6. I would be happy with half that.



I'll take the 8.6. If this keeps up, it could get even higher.
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Quoting JLPR2:


Yeah! XD
98e seems to be a little ahead of 97e, will probably be a TS first.
Link



Great to have you around Gro.
Absolutely. :P


Como andas?
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381. 7544
hi all the gfs really wants to bring a strom to fl but how strong andor maybe even two ? when will this happen
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Quoting Grothar:


And wind, don't forget the wind! How are you Clay?


I'm good Grothar, how are you?
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379. JLPR2
Quoting pcola57:


They look like they are playing follow the leader JLPR2..LOL.. :p


Yeah! XD
98e seems to be a little ahead of 97e, will probably be a TS first.
Link

Quoting Grothar:


Definitely.


Great to have you around Gro.
Absolutely. :P
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Philippe looks OK. Persistent little bugger.

Good Night everyone :)
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5690
Quoting ClaySFL:


Good to see you too Woody. I'm on the east coast of FL. That's what the news has been saying. Looks like a nice rainy weekend for us.


And wind, don't forget the wind! How are you Clay?
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Quoting Grothar:


Been a little "under the weather". Keep up the education. I think that map has been updated. Looks like we may get even more. They keep changing it on every run.



If it's any consolation, we've all been in and out of sickness the past month as well. Indeed the max QPF is up to 8.6. I would be happy with half that.

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Quoting WoodyFL:


Hey, Clay, nice to see you. Heard you might get a lot of rain your way. I think you are in FL. East or West coast?


Good to see you too Woody. I'm on the east coast of FL. That's what the news has been saying. Looks like a nice rainy weekend for us.
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Quoting Grothar:


TROPICALANALYSTWX13!!!!!!!

GROTHAR!!!!!!!!
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32251
Well, I'm off for the night.

Night.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32251
i will be lurking most of the time here un less we have storms too talk about so no storm i lurk
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

GROTHAR!!!!!!!!!!


TROPICALANALYSTWX13!!!!!!!
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Quoting ProgressivePulse:


Doing well Gro, How about you? First year of school for my Daughter and Wife started her Masters Program last week, been real busy. Loving Doc's QPF map up top, we sure could use a bump before dry season.


Been a little "under the weather". Keep up the education. I think that map has been updated. Looks like we may get even more. They keep changing it on every run.
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Quoting JLPR2:
I'm liking 97e and 98e.



Maybe twin storms soon. :D


They look like they are playing follow the leader JLPR2..LOL.. :p
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Quoting Grothar:
I think the Caribbean and Atlantic storms will be big.

GROTHAR!!!!!!!!!!
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32251
Quoting ClaySFL:


I remember seeing that. It is fall after all, and they've gotten big things right.


Hey, Clay, nice to see you. Heard you might get a lot of rain your way. I think you are in FL. East or West coast?
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Quoting Grothar:


Hello, my friend to the North. Looks like we are going to get wet this nice holiday week-end. (How have you been?)


Doing well Gro, How about you? First year of school for my Daughter and Wife started her Masters Program last week, been real busy. Loving Doc's QPF map up top, we sure could use a bump before dry season.
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364. JLPR2
I'm liking 97e and 98e.



Maybe twin storms soon. :D
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Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Anyone waiting to validate the Psychic Twins prediction of a Cat 4/5 affecting FL and the east coast this fall. Equinox was Sept 23rd. I am personally intrigued, especially looking at the GFS toying at a future storm in the Caribbean.


I remember seeing that. It is fall after all, and they've gotten big things right.
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Quoting clwstmchasr:


Drake, glad to see you on. Your (and my) Noles are disappointing me this year. Are you see any hints of a track of our potential sub-tropical storm? East or West of Fl or is just too early to get a handle on it. Also, I'm a bit more interested in storm #2. We'll worry about that one later.


Possible Subtropical or Tropical storm on either side of Florida. Right now i'm siding with the ECMWF which places a subtropical low in the eastern GOM. Too early to worry about the other system.


Quoting KoritheMan:


He was previously known as KerryInNOLA. It's become customary for me to call him that.


Oh I thought you were using a metonymy for Emmanuel vs. Gray. Nevermind.
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Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Evening Grothar.


Hello, my friend to the North. Looks like we are going to get wet this nice holiday week-end. (How have you been?)
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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