Wet subtropical storm possible for Florida this weekend

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:29 PM GMT on October 05, 2011

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A large low pressure system with heavy rains is expected to develop over Cuba and South Florida on Saturday. The counter-clockwise flow around this low will bring strong winds and heavy rains to much of the Florida coast on Saturday, and these conditions will spread northwards to Georgia by Sunday and South Carolina by Monday. Most of the models develop this system into a tropical or subtropical storm, but the potential location of such a storm is still murky. The ECMWF model predicts the storm will form in the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Monday, then move north into the Florida Panhandle on Tuesday. If this track verifies, the oil rigs off the coast of Southeast Louisiana may experience a one or two day period of sustained winds above tropical storm force Monday or Tuesday. The GFS and NOGAPS models put the storm on the other side of Florida, over the Northwestern Bahamas, and predict the storm will move northwards and hit North Carolina on Wednesday. The UKMET model is in-between, developing the storm right on top of Florida. Since the storm is going to be getting its start as a cold-cored upper-level low pressure system with some dry air aloft, it will probably start out subtropical, with a large band of heavy rain developing well north of the center, bringing heavy rains to a wide region of the Southeast U.S. Subtropical storms cannot intensify quickly, due to their lack of an organized inner core. If the storm follows the path of the GFS model, it could be similar to Subtropical Storm Four of October 4, 1974. That storm brought 10 - 14 inches of rain to the east coast of Florida and strong onshore winds of 30 - 40 mph that caused beach erosion and coastal flooding. The extended forecast discussion from NOAA's Hydrometeorological Prediction Center has a more technical discussion of this coming storm for those interested.


Figure 1. Rainfall forecast for the 5-day period ending at 8 am EDT Monday, October 10, 2011. The storm system affecting Florida this weekend is expected to bring up to 7 inches of rain along the coast. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

Tropical Storm Philippe no threat to land
In the middle Atlantic, Tropical Storm Philippe is about to interact with a frontal system and turn northeastward out to sea. Satellite loops show Philippe is a small system with a modest amount heavy thunderstorm activity, with the surface circulation partially exposed to view by wind shear. Wind shear will remain in the moderate range today, which may allow the storm to intensify into a hurricane, as predicted by several of the intensity forecast models. By Thursday, wind shear will rise to a very high 30 - 50 knots, which should cause rapid weakening. Philippe will not trouble any land areas.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Philippe. The band of clouds to the northwest of Philippe is associated with a cold front that is expected to absorb the storm and recurve it to the northeast on Thursday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Ameister12:
Not looking good for Mexico. TD 10 is gonna hit Mexico as a hurricane.
give texas a soaking hopefully
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4016
Worst Cambodian floods in a decade kill 167

PHNOM PENH—Cambodia’s worst floods in over a decade have killed 167 people, a disaster official said Wednesday, as efforts intensified to provide aid to tens of thousands of families.

Sixty-eight children were among those who died in nearly two months of flooding caused by heavy rainfall that has also seen the Mekong River overflow, said Keo Vy, spokesman for the National Committee for Disaster Management.

Some 300,000 hectares (740,000 acres) of rice paddies have been inundated and more than 23,000 families had to be evacuated to higher ground in provinces across the country, he added.

“The government and the Red Cross are giving the necessary help to those affected,” Keo Vy said, adding that aid, including food deliveries, had so far reached 40,000 families.

He estimated that nearly 230,000 families across the impoverished nation had been affected by the unusually severe floods but he indicated the situation was under control.

“As Prime Minister Hun Sen has said, we are not appealing for aid but we welcome any assistance,” he said.

International relief organization Oxfam, which has started handing out hygiene kits in some areas, has urged all relevant agencies in Cambodia “to urgently deliver food, clean water, sanitation supplies and shelters.”

In neighboring Thailand, the worst monsoon floods in decades have left more than 220 people dead.
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Not looking good for Mexico. TD 10 is gonna hit Mexico as a hurricane.
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Philippe is most likely a hurricane right now, with deep convection atop the low-level center, and a nice spiral band forming on the right side of the system. The next update is at 11AM.
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SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
341 AM EDT THU OCT 6 2011

VALID 12Z THU OCT 6 2011 - 12Z SAT OCT 8 2011

...STRONG EARLY SEASON WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE WESTERN STATES...

...GUSTY WINDS AND SHOWERS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER FLORIDA AND INTO GEORGIA...

...VERY PLEASANT CONDITIONS FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE EAST COAST...

ALTHOUGH THE CALENDAR MAY SAY EARLY OCTOBER...WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE MORE TYPICAL OF THE WINTER MONTHS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WEST THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ALONG WITH A STRONG SURFACE LOW WILL KEEP THE WEATHER UNSETTLED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. VERY COLD AIR ALOFT...ALONG WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND UPWARD FORCING...CREATE A RECIPE FOR EARLY SEASON SNOW ABOVE 6000 FEET FOR MOST PLACES OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST AND THE SIERRA NEVADA. A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER MAY BE HEARD IN A FEW AREAS. THE LOWER ELEVATIONS SHOULD STAY MAINLY RAIN WITH PERHAPS SOME SNOW MIXING IN AT TIMES. BY FRIDAY NIGHT...LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE U.S. DURING THIS TIME.

OVER FLORIDA AND INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA...THERE SHOULD BE PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BETWEEN A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH...AND A GENERAL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT SOUTH OF THE BAHAMAS. THIS WILL BRING MOISTURE INTO THIS REGION AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA. THERE MAY BE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO AS WELL. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

ELSEWHERE...WONDERFUL FALL CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. SUNSHINE WILL BE ABUNDANT AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL ALONG THE EAST COAST...AND ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE MIDWEST.

HAMRICK

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
LinkHydrometeorological Prediction Center
Camp Springs, MD


off to make the donuts. have a great day everyone.
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phillipe deserves a spankin'!
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Good morning!

Philippe looks like he's very close to becoming out 5th hurricane.

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good morning, all.
phillipe is about to be carried away by that trough.
Link
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Morning, WxLogic. Thank you, HondosGirl. I'm so excited. I've lost count of the times he's been deployed, but each time he comes home is just as exciting for me as the others. Now I need the weather to cooperate. *G*
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Quoting islander101010:
sat. picture not what i expected this morning
pouch 37 in the bahamas happy for you and your family aisln hope for alot more happy families soon rip steve jobs its ashamed he sold out us americans sent all the jobs overseas.
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Quoting aislinnpaps:
Good morning, all. Glad to see someone else up this early. The last week or so, hardly anyone around. Hope all is quiet around the panhandle of Florida in about a week and a half. I don't want my son's return from the land of sand delayed! (Afghanistan)


Safe travels and welcome home to your son! We live in the panhandle as well --- can use the rain to refill the ponds, but hope anything more serious stays far away.
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Good Morning
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4881
Good morning, all. Glad to see someone else up this early. The last week or so, hardly anyone around. Hope all is quiet around the panhandle of Florida in about a week and a half. I don't want my son's return from the land of sand delayed! (Afghanistan)
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Looks to me development will be pushed back further very dry air getting pushed south across Florida and the Bahamas
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Quoting weatherbro:


Wonder if that'll also be the product of a stalled frontal boundary from next weekends(15th-16th) front? I think this one will head more northeast due to the east coast trough expected then.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Levi, I think the Caribbean system is beginning to get pushed back again XD

This is the 18Z GFS at 288 hours:



Wonder if that'll also be the product of a stalled frontal boundary from next weekends(not this weekend) front? I think this one will head more northeast due to the east coast trough expected then.
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well philipe its old but is strong
but look two tropical depressions in the east pacific
tropical depression eleven - it will be a strong tropical storm but not a hurricane i think.
tropical depression ten- well this system coul cause destruction in mexico because it will be an hurricane not a major one but could be a strong category 2 hurricane i think.
another thing look at the waters betwen africa and lesser antiles ... there warming up !!
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sat. picture not what i expected this morning
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442. MahFL
Quoting pottery:
Today's News--

Sad, Jobs death.
Glad, Palins retreat.


Amen !
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441. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
437. j2008 4:53 AM GMT on October 06, 2011
Little comparisons
Atlantic ACE- 102
EPAC ACE- 84.4
CPAC ACE- 1.23
WPAC ACE- 156
N. INDIAN ACE- 0 .....wierd....

Strongest EPAC vs. Atlantic storms
EPAC- HILARY- 31.3!!!
Atlantic- KATIA- 24.8

and that concludes the night, night everyone.
Stay safe!!!


We'll see what happens in November for the northern Indian Ocean, the second peak month for that area.
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Good morning everyone!

Grothar.. take care brother, come back when you can, you and yours are in my prayers.
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439. Skyepony (Mod)
Pretty quiet weather disaster day across the world today. There was this Bit about sinkholes in South Africa..which I've got to gleem a quote of the day off of.. it's gotten serous, the ground has eaten up like 38 people, caused 1.5 billion in damages in the last 50 years, attributed to big business sucking up too much water at once..

"The dolomitic situation is satanic," says Gauteng MEC for local government and housing, Humphrey Mmemezi. "[Residents don't realise] it comes during the night... .People can wake up and the section [of the township] is not there."


Night hydrus, I'm out too..

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Good night to all..:)
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19494
437. j2008
Little comparisons
Atlantic ACE- 102
EPAC ACE- 84.4
CPAC ACE- 1.23
WPAC ACE- 156
N. INDIAN ACE- 0 .....wierd....

Strongest EPAC vs. Atlantic storms
EPAC- HILARY- 31.3!!!
Atlantic- KATIA- 24.8

and that concludes the night, night everyone.
Stay safe!!!
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Quoting Skyepony:
98E won & became TD10 before 97E



hydrus~ The gfs there hits me with an invest, Tropical Storm & then a Hurricane. Could use some rain.
It is my guess that you will get some decent amounts in your area, Regardless of what happens with this next system, that is one powerful mjo impulse headin our way. Who knows, even November could throw something at us with huge rainfall totals..it has happened..:)
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19494
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19494
434. j2008
Quoting Skyepony:
Maybe Philippe can pull off an eye before he's gone. I think he may be just starting to strengthen a little.

Evening everybody, I agree, Phillipe seems to be close to hurricane if not at hurricane status now, and most likely will become one tomorrow. Quite exciting to see 2 systems in EPAC 10E and 97E should both be Tropical Storms by end of day tomorrow. It seems like MJO has entered the EPAC!! Not to much longer till it gets to the Atlantic! Very glad to see Grothar was back tonight hope he is doing well, blog isnt the same without him here.
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433. Skyepony (Mod)
Maybe Philippe can pull off an eye before he's gone. I think he may be just starting to strengthen a little.
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432. Skyepony (Mod)
98E won & became TD10 before 97E



hydrus~ The gfs there hits me with an invest, Tropical Storm & then a Hurricane. Could use some rain.
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Quoting Skyepony:
In about five hours Philippe will be 12 days old. Raw T score just jumped from 2.5 to 4.0 in the last 2 hrs..tying the strongest it has been up to this point, which was briefly on Sept 25th.
Good evening Skye..Philippe is marching on. Tough lil sucker...
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Quoting Huracaneer:

982 mb, is it kidding? And almost at the same time of year as the Cat 3 from 1921. Let's hope it never pans out.
I never doomcast. That model shows a storm to far out in time to worry about. The bottom line is that October is a month that Floridians should watch the Caribbean for anything that spins up. It can and will spawn major hurricanes in short order, and they usually hit the southern half of the peninsula.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19494
TS.Phillipe's_6Oct_12amGMT_ATCF : Starting 5Oct_12amGMT and ending 6Oct_12amGMT

The 4 southern line-segments represent TropicalStormPhillippe's path,
the northernmost line-segment is the straightline projection for 6Oct_12amGMT,
the coastline dumbbell at 43.561n65.784w-YQI is the endpoint of the 5Oct_6pmGMT
straightline projection connected to its nearest airport,
and the coastline blob at 35.369n76.092w-7W6 is the same for the 5Oct_12pmGMT.

Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the
ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 6pmGMT then 12amGMT :
TS.Phillipe's travel-speed was 7.2mph(11.5k/h) on a heading of 16.7degrees(NNE)
TS.Phillipe was headed toward passing ~42miles(67.6kilometres) east of Newfoundland ~8days15hours from now

Copy&paste 35.369n76.092w-7w6, 43.561n65.784w-yqi, 24.3n60.2w-24.5n60.6w, 24.5n60.6w-25.0n61.2w, 25.0n61.2w-25.5n61.3w, 25.5n61.3w-26.1n61.1w, bda, 25.5n61.3w-46.816n52.057w, yyt, 46.816n52.937w-46.816n52.057w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info

The previous mapping for 5Oct_6pmGMT
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428. Skyepony (Mod)
In about five hours Philippe will be 12 days old. Raw T score just jumped from 2.5 to 4.0 in the last 2 hrs..tying the strongest it has been up to this point, which was briefly on Sept 25th.
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.
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426. Skyepony (Mod)
Philippe~ Fresh pass, not that great though, caught the SW side..click pic for quicktime animation.
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Quoting hydrus:
Did you see this?Link

982 mb, is it kidding? And almost at the same time of year as the Cat 3 from 1921. Let's hope it never pans out.
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Quoting Grothar:
Well, folks, I will be gone for a long time now. Just wanted to say good-bye. Don't know when I will be back this time. You all take care.


Grothar - your WU mail is not accepting mail. Check your regular email. I do not know if it is going through there either.
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Quoting hydrus:
Did you see this?Link

Ok, thanks for the link, but although that's fairly far in the future and by definition low reliability, it's still gives the willies. I may be shopping for supplies this weekend, just in case.
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Hi Grothar. Glad to see you back again, even if only for a brief visit.
Hope your wanderjahre is as pleasant as it can be while taking you to where ya wanna be.
Drop in and say "hi" when you've got the time and the connections. Us'n WUbers have always been quite fond of you.
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Quoting Huracaneer:
Blog seems to have slowed down a lot from it's frantic pace earlier in the year and that's even with possible Florida development starting this weekend. Levi has been talking about what the MJO pulse is going to do and I am worried for the West Coast of Fl. After all, Tampa's worst storm in a 100 years was on October 24, 1921 Link
Did you see this?Link
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19494
Blog seems to have slowed down a lot from it's frantic pace earlier in the year and that's even with possible Florida development starting this weekend. Levi has been talking about what the MJO pulse is going to do and I am worried for the West Coast of Fl. After all, Tampa's worst storm in a 100 years was on October 24, 1921 Link
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Ahh welcome back Dr. Grother and now off ya go again. I will miss your wit and knowledge.
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I am so confused...
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.
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Good evening everyone.

I see that Grothar is in the house. I saw his car parked outside and thought I would drop by to say hello.







HELLO, Grothar!
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Quoting Grothar:
Well, folks, I will be gone for a long time now. Just wanted to say good-bye. Don't know when I will be back this time. You all take care.
What??? Ya just got here.. I didnt even have time to crack a Geritol joke!..o well..Hope we see you soon and God Bless..
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19494
Quoting Grothar:
Well, folks, I will be gone for a long time now. Just wanted to say good-bye. Don't know when I will be back this time. You all take care.


Where are you going?
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Well, folks, I will be gone for a long time now. Just wanted to say good-bye. Don't know when I will be back this time. You all take care.
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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102011
800 PM PDT WED OCT 05 2011

INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION OF THE LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTH
OF MANZANILLO HAS INCREASED. A CDO-LIKE FEATURE WITH CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES TO -90C HAS RECENTLY FORMED...WITH MICROWAVE DATA
SUGGESTING THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER LIES ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF IT.
DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS WERE T1.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB AT 0000 UTC BUT
THIS WAS BEFORE THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE MASS DEVELOPED. BASED ON THE
SUBSEQUENT INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION...ADVISORIES ARE BEING
INITIATED ON THE SYSTEM AS A 30 KT TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

SINCE THE DEPRESSION IS IN ITS FORMATIVE STAGE...THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 280/09. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD COURSE FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TO THE SOUTH OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED OFFSHORE OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO. BETWEEN 48-72 HOURS...AN
UNSEASONABLY STRONG MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD ERODE THE RIDGE...CAUSING THE
TRACK OF THE DEPRESSION TO SLOW AND TURN NORTHWARD. THE DEPRESSION
IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AFTER 72 HOURS AS IT COMES
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP LAYER OF WESTERLY FLOW DOMINATING THE
REGION. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS LEFT OF ALL OF THE TRACK
GUIDANCE AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH A BLEND OF THE BAMS AND
ECMWF MODELS. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE A POOR HANDLE ON THE
INITIAL MOTION AND LOCATION OF THE DEPRESSION...SO THE OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST IS OF RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE.

SHIPS AND UW-CIMSS SHEAR ANALYSES CURRENTLY DIAGNOSE MODERATE
NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE DEPRESSION. GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE THAT SHEAR OF ABOUT THIS MAGNITUDE SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 48-72 HOURS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE INTENSITY
CONSENSUS AIDS BY SHOWING ONLY SLOW INTENSIFICATION DURING THIS
TIME. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO PEAK IN STRENGTH AROUND THE POINT
OF RECURVATURE AND JUST PRIOR TO ENCOUNTERING AN INCREASE IN
WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS BUT IS OF
LOWER CONFIDENCE THAN NORMAL GIVEN THE HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE TRACK FORECAST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0300Z 10.0N 105.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 10.2N 106.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 07/0000Z 10.6N 107.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 07/1200Z 11.1N 108.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 08/0000Z 11.8N 109.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 09/0000Z 13.6N 110.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 10/0000Z 15.6N 108.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 11/0000Z 17.4N 106.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
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Quoting Grothar:


He has been doing that for years. Have you ever seen it before?


Nope
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.