Unprecedented Arctic ozone hole in 2011; a Florida tropical storm next week?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:01 PM GMT on October 04, 2011

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An unprecedented ozone hole opened in the Arctic during 2011, researchers reported this week in the journal Nature. Holes in the Antarctic ozone layer have opened up each spring since the early 1980s, but the Arctic had only shown modest springtime ozone losses in the 5% - 30% range over the past twenty years. But this year, massive ozone destruction of 80% occurred at altitudes of 18 - 20 kilometers in the Arctic during spring, resulting in Earth's first known case of twin ozone holes, one over each pole. During late March and portions of April, the Arctic ozone hole was positioned over heavily populated areas of Western Europe, allowing large levels of damaging ultraviolet rays to reach the surface. UV-B radiation causes skin damage that can lead to cancer, and has been observed to reduce crop yields in two-thirds of 300 important plant varieties studied (WMO, 2002.) The total loss of ozone in a column from the surface to the top of the atmosphere reached 40% during the peak of this year's Arctic ozone hole. Since each 1% drop in ozone levels results in about 1% more UV-B reaching Earth's surface (WMO, 2002), UV-B levels reaching the surface likely increased by 40% at the height of this year's hole. We know that an 11% increase in UV-B light can cause a 24% decrease in winter wheat yield (Zheng et al., 2003), so this year's Arctic ozone hole may have caused noticeable reductions in Europe's winter wheat crop.


Figure 1. Left: Ozone in Earth's stratosphere at an altitude of approximately 12 miles (20 kilometers) in mid-March 2011, near the peak of the 2011 Arctic ozone loss. Right: chlorine monoxide--the primary agent of chemical ozone destruction in the cold polar lower stratosphere--the same day and altitude. Image credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech.

What caused this year's unprecedented Arctic ozone hole?
Earth's ozone holes are due to the presence of human-emitted CFC gases in the stratosphere. The ozone destruction process is greatly accelerated when the atmosphere is cold enough to make clouds in the stratosphere. These polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) act like ozone destruction factories, by providing convenient surfaces for the reactions that destroy ozone to occur. PSCs only form in the 24-hour darkness of unusually cold winters near the poles; the atmosphere is too warm elsewhere to support PSCs. Stratospheric temperatures are warmer in the Arctic than the Antarctic, so PSCs and ozone destruction in the Arctic has, in the past, been much less than in the Antarctic. In order to get temperatures cold enough to allow formation of PSCs, a strong vortex of swirling winds around the pole needs to develop. Such a "polar vortex" isolates the cold air near the pole, keeping it from mixing with warmer air from the mid-latitudes. A strong polar vortex in winter and spring is common in the Antarctic, but less common in the Arctic, since there are more land masses that tend to cause large-scale disruptions to the winds of the polar vortex, allowing warm air from the south to mix northwards. However, as the authors of the Nature study wrote, "The persistence of a strong, cold vortex from December through to the end of March was unprecedented. In February - March 2011, the barrier to transport at the Arctic vortex edge was the strongest in either hemisphere in the last ~30 years. This unusual polar vortex, combined with very cold Arctic stratospheric temperatures typical of what we've seen in recent decades, led to the most favorable conditions ever observed for formation of Arctic PSCs. The reasons for this unusual vortex are unknown.


Figure 2. Global lower stratospheric departure of temperature from average since 1979, as measured by satellites. The large spikes in 1982 and 1991 are due to the eruptions of El Chicon and Mt. Pinatubo, respectively. These volcanoes ejected huge quantities of sulphuric acid dust into the stratosphere. This dust absorbed large quantities of solar radiation, heating the stratosphere. Stratospheric temperature has been generally decreasing in recent decades, due to the twin effects of ozone depletion and the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the lower atmosphere. During Jan - Aug 2011, Earth's stratosphere had its 3rd coldest such period on record. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.

Greenhouse gases cause stratospheric cooling
When ozone absorbs UV light, it heats the surrounding air. Thus, the loss of ozone in recent decades has helped cool the stratosphere, resulting in a feedback loop where colder temperatures create more PSCs, resulting in even more ozone destruction. However, in 1987, CFCs and other ozone-depleting substances were banned. As a result, CFC levels in the stratosphere peaked in 2000, and had fallen by 3.8% as of 2008, according to NASA. Unfortunately, despite the fact that CFCs are falling in concentration, the stratosphere is not warming up. The recovery of the ozone layer is being delayed by human emissions of greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide and methane. These gases trap heat near the surface, but cause cooling of the stratosphere and increased formation of the PSCs that help destroy ozone. We need only look as far as our sister planet, Venus, to see an example of how the greenhouse effect warms the surface but cools the upper atmosphere. Venus's atmosphere is 96.5% carbon dioxide, which has triggered a hellish run-away greenhouse effect. The average surface temperature on Venus is a sizzling 894 °F, hot enough to melt lead. Venus's upper atmosphere, though, is a startling 4 - 5 times colder than Earth's upper atmosphere. The explanation of this greenhouse gas-caused surface heating and upper air cooling is not simple, but good discussions can be found at Max Planck Institute for Chemistry and realclimate.org, for those unafraid of radiative transfer theory. One way to think about the problem is that the amount of infrared heat energy radiated out to space by a planet is roughly equal to the amount of solar energy it receives from the sun. If the surface atmosphere warms, there must be compensating cooling elsewhere in the atmosphere in order to keep the amount of heat given off by the planet the same and balanced. As emissions of greenhouse gases continue to rise, their cooling effect on the stratosphere will increase. This will make recovery of the stratospheric ozone layer much slower.

Greenhouse gases cause cooling higher up, too
Greenhouse gases have also led to the cooling of the atmosphere at levels higher than the stratosphere. Over the past 30 years, the Earth's surface temperature has increased 0.2 - 0.4 °C, while the temperature in the mesosphere, about 50 - 80 km above ground, has cooled 5 - 10 °C (Beig et al., 2006). There is no appreciable cooling due to ozone destruction at these altitudes, so nearly all of this dramatic cooling is due to the addition of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. Even greater cooling of 17 °C per decade has been observed high in the ionosphere, at 350 km altitude. This has affected the orbits of orbiting satellites, due to decreased drag, since the upper atmosphere has shrunk and moved closer to the surface (Lastovicka et al., 2006). The density of the air has declined 2 - 3% per decade the past 30 years at 350 km altitude. So, in a sense, the sky IS falling due to the greenhouse effect!

Since any increase in solar energy would heat both the lower and upper atmosphere, the observed drop in upper atmospheric temperatures in the past 30 years argues against an increase in energy coming from the sun being responsible for global warming. The observed cooling of the upper atmosphere is strong evidence that the warming at Earth's surface is due to human-emitted greenhouse gases that trap heat near the surface and cause compensating cooling aloft. It should also give us additional confidence in the climate models, since they predicted that this upper atmospheric cooling would occur. Keep in mind, also, that 2010 was tied for Earth's hottest year on record, and the amount of energy coming from the sun during 2009 - 2010 was the lowest since satellite measurements began in the late 1970s. There has been no long-term increase in energy coming from the sun in recent decades, and the notion that global warming is due to an increase in energy coming from the sun simply doesn't add up.

Commentary
The development of an ozone hole in the Arctic is a discouraging reminder that humans are capable of causing harmful and unexpected planetary-scale changes to the environment. A 2002 assessment of the ozone layer by the World Meteorological Organization concluded that an Arctic ozone hole would be unlikely to occur, due to the lack of a strong Arctic vortex in winter, and the fact CFCs levels had started to decline. However, an Arctic ozone hole may now become a regular visitor in the future. "Day-to-day temperatures in the 2010 - 11 Arctic winter did not reach lower values than in previous cold Arctic winters," said the lead author of this year's Nature study, Gloria Manney, of NASA and the New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology in Socorro. "The difference from previous winters is that temperatures were low enough to produce ozone-destroying forms of chlorine for a much longer time. This implies that if winter Arctic stratospheric temperatures drop just slightly in the future, for example as a result of climate change, then severe Arctic ozone loss may occur more frequently." I might add that its a very good thing CFCs were banned in 1987, or else the Arctic ozone hole would have opened up much sooner and would have been far worse. It turned out that the costs of the CFC ban, while substantial, were far less than the dire cost predictions that the CFC industry warned of. It is highly probable that we will see future nasty climate change surprises far more serious than the Arctic ozone hole if we continue on our present business-as-usual approach of emitting huge quantities of greenhouse gases. Humans would be wise to act forcefully to cut emissions of greenhouse gases, as the cost of inaction is highly likely to be far greater than the cost of action.

References
Manney, G.L., et al., 2011, Unprecedented Arctic ozone loss in 2011, Nature (2011), doi:10.1038/nature10556

Weather Underground Ozone Hole FAQ

World Meteorological Organization (WMO), "Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion: 2002 Global Ozone Research and Monitoring Project - Report #47", WMO, Nairobi, Kenya, 2002.

Zheng, Y., W. Gao, J.R. Slusser, R.H. Grant, C. Wang, "Yield and yield formation of field winter wheat in response to supplemental solar ultraviolet-B radiation," Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, Volume 120, Issues 1-4, 24 December 2003.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Philippe. Philippe has a Central Dense Overcast (CDO) of high cirrus clouds characteristic of a tropical storm nearing hurricane strength.

Tropical Storm Philippe no threat to land
In the middle Atlantic, Tropical Storm Philippe has managed to grow a bit more organized in the face of high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots. Satellite loops show Philippe is a small system with a modest amount heavy thunderstorm activity, with the surface circulation partially exposed to view by wind shear. Wind shear will remain high today, but is expected to relax to the moderate range on Wednesday as Philippe recurves to the northeast. This may allow Philippe to intensify into a hurricane, as predicted by several of the intensity forecast models. It is unlikely that Philippe will trouble any land areas.

A Florida tropical storm next week?
Recent runs by all of the computer forecast models predict that an area of low pressure will develop near Florida this weekend or early next week. The counter-clockwise flow around this low will bring strong winds and heavy rains to Northeast Florida and the Georgia coast, and it is possible this storm will develop into a tropical or subtropical storm. The situation is similar to Subtropical Storm Four of October 4, 1974, according to the latest extended forecast discussion from NOAA's Hydrometeorological Prediction Center. That storm brought 10 - 14 inches of rain to the east coast of Florida and strong onshore winds of 30 - 40 mph that caused beach erosion and coastal flooding. The exact formation location of this weekend's storm is still in doubt, with the ECMWF and UKMET models predicting the storm will form in the Gulf of Mexico off the west coast of Florida, and the GFS model predicting formation over the Bahamas. We'll have to wait for future model runs before we can get a better handle on where and when this storm will most likely develop.

Jeff Masters

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440. necanicumwoman
6:49 PM GMT on October 08, 2011
re #390: Cool pressure map! Where did you get this?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
ECMWF @ 144 hours:

Member Since: July 18, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 5
439. weatherbro
5:34 PM GMT on October 05, 2011
Quoting weatherbro:


Well no the strongest front but as least as strong. I predict the strongest front of the season more around the 20-23ed.
Member Since: May 26, 2007 Posts: 47 Comments: 1369
438. weatherbro
5:33 PM GMT on October 05, 2011
Quoting weatherbro:
My guess is that this subtropical storm will form around the Bahama's. Track NW across the Florida Peninsula. Make a second landfall in the panhandle, track toward Atlanta, then northeastwards towards the mid-Atlantic/New England states. Before the strongest front of the season boots it out of here by late next week.


Well no the strongest front but as least as strong. I predict the former more around the 20-23ed.
Member Since: May 26, 2007 Posts: 47 Comments: 1369
437. aspectre
5:07 PM GMT on October 05, 2011
vinotinto "Please put the tropical summary first so we don't have to read all the climate change propaganda to get to the only real reason most of us read this blog."

419 Neapolitan "I'm not sure I understand your request. Is it too burdensome to simply scroll down to get to the stuff you want to see? After all, the blog entry's subject line announces that there is tropical substance; why not just skip over the parts you don't care about to get to it? When you're enjoying a newspaper or magazine, do you force yourself to read every article--even the ones that don't interest you--to get to the parts you care most about? I simply skip things that don't interest me; can you not do the same?

This may not apply to you, but it's been my experience that most times when people phrase things the way that you have--you know, referring to climate science, something about which Dr. Masters cares deeply and about which he's written frequently, as "propaganda"--they're not actually requesting that the climate-related parts of the post be moved to the bottom, but rather eliminated altogether for ideological reasons. So why not just say that in the first place?
"

[NOTE: This forum has no real-time admin to delete comments. This one was deleted earlier, as many of mine and others have been recently, by a group of non-contributing members coordinating their efforts...Nevertheless, I apologize for any inconvenience.] "

Amazingly persistent at their censorship efforts, aren't they?
Even of comments that have nothing to do with ClimateChange itself. eg The exchange here is about whether Dr.Masters should censor himself on his own blog to avoid discomfiting those who don' wanna think about the possibility of man-made meteorological catastrophes.

Which makes me think that their enmity has little to do with the slant, pro-or-con, of your comments. The far more likely motive is their own perception of you as the BigMan on Campus...
...the TopGun. Hence, sniping from deep-cover.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
436. hydrus
4:07 PM GMT on October 05, 2011
Quoting AussieStorm:

I've been past the US Embassy a number of times and to see it like that is just jaw dropping.
This is what it normally looks.


Compared to.....


I must note, The US Embassy site is right on Manila Bay.
Disturbing image to say the least..I hope it is not as bad as it looks... Florida may have some rough weather soon. Southern Caribbean has a surprise in store I believe.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22266
435. weatherbro
3:57 PM GMT on October 05, 2011
My guess is that this subtropical storm will form around the Bahama's. Track NW across the Florida Peninsula. Make a second landfall in the panhandle, track toward Atlanta, then northeastwards towards the mid-Atlantic/New England states. Before the strongest front of the season boots it out of here by late next week.
Member Since: May 26, 2007 Posts: 47 Comments: 1369
434. WxLogic
3:20 PM GMT on October 05, 2011
18Z NAM @84HR:

Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 5038
433. JLPR2
2:51 PM GMT on October 05, 2011
97e reminds me of Pre-Ophelia

Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
432. AussieStorm
2:44 PM GMT on October 05, 2011
Quoting fuzzy3456:
http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/satellite/animatew eb _e.html?imagetype=satellite&imagename=goes_eca n_vv i_m_..................jpg&nbimages=1&clf=1

there sorry lol




Goodnight all
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15962
431. islander101010
2:38 PM GMT on October 05, 2011
looks like the west coast of fl. is in for a pounding
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4989
430. fuzzy3456
2:35 PM GMT on October 05, 2011
http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/satellite/animateweb _e.html?imagetype=satellite&imagename=goes_ecan_vv i_m_..................jpg&nbimages=1&clf=1

there sorry lol
Member Since: August 31, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 36
429. fuzzy3456
2:35 PM GMT on October 05, 2011
Hey guys, just thought you'd like to see an interesting picture of the nor'easter. It seems like an eye-like feature is forming near cape breton. BTW the winds are regularly gusting over 110 km/h here in western nl. Siding just blew off of a hardware store lol

Member Since: August 31, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 36
428. entrelac
2:32 PM GMT on October 05, 2011
Quoting Neapolitan:

[NOTE: this forum has no real-time admin to delete comments. This one was deleted earlier, as many of mine and others have been recently, by a group of non-contributing members coordinating their efforts on another website. It's pretty pathetic, but to be expected; many were banned from here for such childish acts. Nevertheless, I apologize for any inconvenience.]
If this is the case then maybe it is time to get some moderators in here to drop the ban hammer (since admin can see who is down rating comments) or just do away with comments completely.

This mess is getting totally ridiculous and is making the comment section nearly unreadable.
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 239
427. AussieStorm
2:29 PM GMT on October 05, 2011
Quoting hydrus:
It seems that the Philippines get slammed continuously. I remember in the 70,s and 80,s getting whacked with monster typhoons.

I've been past the US Embassy a number of times and to see it like that is just jaw dropping.
This is what it normally looks.


Compared to.....


I must note, The US Embassy site is right on Manila Bay.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15962
426. aspectre
2:17 PM GMT on October 05, 2011
24.6n60.7w has been re-evaluated&altered for TS.Phillipe's_5Oct_12pmGMT_ATCF
24.5n60.6w, 25.0n61.2w are now the most recent positions
Starting 4Oct_12pmGMT and ending 5Oct_12pmGMT

The 4 eastern line-segments represent TropicalStormPhillippe's path,
the westernmost line-segment is the straightline projection for 5Oct_12pmGMT,
the coastline blob at 33.488n79.08w-MYR is the endpoint of the straightline projection
connected to its nearest airport for the 5Oct_6amGMT*mapping
and the coastline blob at 39.201n74.651w-26N is the same for the 5Oct_12amGMT*mapping.

Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the
ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 6amGMT then 12pmGMT :
TS.Phillipe's travel-speed was 8.5mph(13.7k/h) on a heading of 312.5degrees(NW)
TS.Phillipe was headed toward passage over Engelhard,NorthCarolina ~5days12hours from now

Copy&paste 39.201n74.651w-26n, 33.488n79.08w-myr, 23.8n58.8w-23.9n59.7w, 23.9n59.7w-24.3n60.2w, 24.3n60.2w-24.5n60.6w, 24.5n60.6w-25.0n61.2w, 24.5n60.6w-35.369n76.092w, 7w6 into the GreatCircleMapper for more info

The previous mapping for 5Oct_6amGMT

* The alteration of the endpoint of a TropicalCyclone's previous path also changes its previous travel-speed&heading, and the endpoint of its previous straightline projection...
...but I'm choosing to preserve the historicity of the mappings.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
425. hydrus
2:12 PM GMT on October 05, 2011
Quoting AussieStorm:

Yeah, it would be ironic.

Pics from Manila after Typhoon Pedring/Nesat.










Manila Bay walk.


US Embassy Manila.

It seems that the Philippines get slammed continuously. I remember in the 70,s and 80,s getting whacked with monster typhoons.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22266
424. AussieStorm
2:08 PM GMT on October 05, 2011
Quoting hydrus:
I was saying it would be a shame that all the science info and research that we get from our space programs could be doing significant damage to the atmosphere. Ironic considering that some of the satellites we use to monitor pollution may have actually caused a percentage of it.

Yeah, it would be ironic.

Pics from Manila after Typhoon Pedring/Nesat.










Manila Bay walk.


US Embassy Manila.

Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15962
423. hydrus
2:07 PM GMT on October 05, 2011
Quoting AussieStorm:

Is this from your comment from last night? What number was it, I'll read back :-)

Are you talking about the one in the NE ATL or in the GOM?
Gulf.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22266
422. hydrus
2:03 PM GMT on October 05, 2011
Quoting AussieStorm:

Is this from your comment from last night? What number was it, I'll read back :-)
I was saying it would be a shame that all the science info and research that we get from our space programs could be doing significant damage to the atmosphere. Ironic considering that some of the satellites we use to monitor pollution may have actually caused a percentage of it.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22266
421. AussieStorm
1:57 PM GMT on October 05, 2011
Quoting RitaEvac:
Bastrop County:

Almost exactly to the date of the devastating Bastrop Complex Fire which burned 1649 homes, a new fire started yesterday about 3 miles north of the northern end of the previous fire along FM 2336 near Camp Swift. The fire has burned 1,000 acres since yesterday afternoon requiring an evacuation of 30 homes and is 25% contained

Geez, you guys can't get a break :-(
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15962
420. AussieStorm
1:55 PM GMT on October 05, 2011
Quoting hydrus:
Good morning Aussie. I was hoping you read my post before you signed off for the last night..The CMC has a Fujiwara like set up for the Gulf of Mexico this morning..Link

Is this from your comment from last night? What number was it, I'll read back :-)

Are you talking about the one in the NE ATL or in the GOM?
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15962
419. Neapolitan
1:53 PM GMT on October 05, 2011
Quoting vinotinto:
Please put the tropical summary first so we don't have to read all the climate change propaganda to get to the only real reason most of us read this blog.

Best Regards,
Michael

I'm not sure I understand your request. Is it too burdensome to simply scroll down to get to the stuff you want to see? After all, the blog entry's subject line announces that there is tropical substance; why not just skip over the parts you don't care about to get to it? When you're enjoying a newspaper or magazine, do you force yourself to read every article--even the ones that don't interest you--to get to the parts you care most about? I simply skip things that don't interest me; can you not do the same?

This may not apply to you, but it's been my experience that most times when people phrase things the way that you have--you know, referring to climate science, something about which Dr. Masters cares deeply and about which he's written frequently, as "propaganda"--they're not actually requesting that the climate-related parts of the post be moved to the bottom, but rather eliminated altogether for ideological reasons. So why not just say that in the first place?

Best Regards,
Jim

[NOTE: this forum has no real-time admin to delete comments. This one was deleted earlier, as many of mine and others have been recently, by a group of non-contributing members coordinating their efforts on another website. It's pretty pathetic, but to be expected; many were banned from here for such childish acts. Nevertheless, I apologize for any inconvenience.]
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13732
418. RitaEvac
1:53 PM GMT on October 05, 2011
Bastrop County:

Almost exactly to the date of the devastating Bastrop Complex Fire which burned 1649 homes, a new fire started yesterday about 3 miles north of the northern end of the previous fire along FM 2336 near Camp Swift. The fire has burned 1,000 acres since yesterday afternoon requiring an evacuation of 30 homes and is 25% contained
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 9680
417. hydrus
1:51 PM GMT on October 05, 2011
Quoting AussieStorm:


I actually agree with neo, if you don't want to read about climate change, then skip it and read the stuff you want to. I read Dr. Masters full blog, the more knowledge I have the better i can comment. Simple really.

And i neo's comment.
Good (evening) Aussie. I was hoping you read my post before you signed off for the last night..The CMC has a Fujiwara like set up for the Gulf of Mexico this morning..Link
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22266
416. Tazmanian
1:48 PM GMT on October 05, 2011
Quoting vinotinto:
Please put the tropical summary first so we don't have to read all the climate change propaganda to get to the only real reason most of us read this blog.

Best Regards,
Michael


they dont have to do any thing 1st been like this for years
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115437
415. RitaEvac
1:46 PM GMT on October 05, 2011
http://www.greenvinc.com/
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 9680
414. Neapolitan
1:42 PM GMT on October 05, 2011
Quoting vinotinto:
Please put the tropical summary first so we don't have to read all the climate change propaganda to get to the only real reason most of us read this blog.

Best Regards,
Michael

I'm not sure I understand your request. Is it too burdensome to simply scroll down to get to the stuff you want to see? After all, the blog entry's subject line announces that there is tropical substance; why not just skip over the parts you don't care about to get to it? When you're enjoying a newspaper or magazine, do you force yourself to read every article--even the ones that don't interest you--to get to the parts you care most about? I simply skip things that don't interest me; can you not do the same?

This may not apply to you, but it's been my experience that most times when people phrase things the way that you have--you know, referring to climate science, something about which Dr. Masters cares deeply and about which he's written frequently, as "propaganda"--they're not actually requesting that the climate-related parts of the post be moved to the bottom, but rather eliminated altogether for ideological reasons. So why not just say that in the first place?

Best Regards,
Jim
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13732
413. RitaEvac
1:41 PM GMT on October 05, 2011
Quoting vinotinto:
Please put the tropical summary first so we don't have to read all the climate change propaganda to get to the only real reason most of us read this blog.

Best Regards,
Michael


lol
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 9680
412. AussieStorm
1:37 PM GMT on October 05, 2011
Quoting srada:


Minus-------->


I actually agree with neo, if you don't want to read about climate change, then skip it and read the stuff you want to. I read Dr. Masters full blog, the more knowledge I have the better i can comment. Simple really.

And i neo's comment.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15962
411. Xyrus2000
1:34 PM GMT on October 05, 2011
Quoting iceagecoming:
Volcano In Siberia Caused The Greatest Mass Extinction Event Of All Time (6/5/2007)
Tags:
fossils, extinction

Scientists from the Universities of Sheffield and Cambridge have discovered that Mother Nature caused a massive ozone depletion event, some 251 million years ago, during the greatest mass extinction event of all time.

The research, which has been published in the June edition of Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A, shows that toxic chemicals released by volcanoes led to a thinning of the ozone layer, millions of years before humans even existed.

New mathematical models developed by the scientists suggest a massive episode of volcanism in Siberia, which coincided with the mass extinction, seriously depleted the ozone shield that protects life on Earth from harmful ultraviolet-B radiation. The eruptions injected halogen gases into the atmosphere, and produced potent ozone-destroying chemicals as the hot ascending lava cooked Siberian rocks and underground salt and minerals.

The calculations also help explain fossil finds reported a few years ago of unusual mutated plant pollen in rocks, which dated back to around the time of the mass extinction, and had previously puzzled scientists. These mutations are consistent with damage to plants by extreme UV-radiation.

Don't imagine it was the first or the last, Hmmm.


There have been multiple mass extinction events throughout history. In fact, we're living in one right now. But I'm not sure what this has to do with the current blog post.
Member Since: October 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1625
409. intampa
1:28 PM GMT on October 05, 2011
hey neo you can forget telling people who think global warming is propaganda to just skip that part of the blog. they wont. its so apparent the climate is changing. how much humans are to blame can surely be debated however it is changing. most people just dont want to see it because it might mean in some way they are seen as supporting anything liberal.i dont understand why trying to make the earth a cleaner place and more livable for us all and trying to understand our climate could be seen as dangerous and propaganda. looks like common sense would tell you its the only planet we have and we have to try and take care of it. regardless of your politics we have to try and stop polluting and destroying this planet all in the name of the almighty dollar.
Member Since: July 6, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 127
408. rmbjoe1954
1:24 PM GMT on October 05, 2011
No. 407....Agreed.
Member Since: June 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1437
407. Neapolitan
1:20 PM GMT on October 05, 2011
Quoting vinotinto:
Please put the tropical summary first so we don't have to read all the climate change propaganda to get to the only real reason most of us read this blog.

Best Regards,
Michael

I'm not sure I understand your request. Is it too burdensome to simply scroll down to get to the stuff you want to see? After all, the blog entry's subject line announces that there is tropical substance; why not just skip over the parts you don't care about to get to it? When you're enjoying a newspaper or magazine, do you force yourself to read every article--even the ones that don't interest you--to get to the parts you care most about? I simply skip things that don't interest me; can you not do the same?

This may not apply to you, but it's been my experience that most times when people phrase things the way that you have--you know, referring to climate science, something about which Dr. Masters cares deeply and about which he's written frequently, as "propaganda"--they're not actually requesting that the climate-related parts of the post be moved to the bottom, but rather eliminated altogether for ideological reasons. So why not just say that in the first place?

Best Regards,
Jim
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13732
406. KUEFC
1:16 PM GMT on October 05, 2011
Good to see the wishcasters popping by, yep lets belive a totally unreliable model
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 93
405. kwgirl
1:08 PM GMT on October 05, 2011
Quoting rmbjoe1954:


GEM still depicts two storms for Florida. Yikes!
Good morning. I don't think that is necessarily a bad thing. Lake Okechobee needs to be filled before the dry season sets in. I just hope it is more of a rain event than anything else.
Member Since: March 28, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1532
404. rmbjoe1954
1:06 PM GMT on October 05, 2011
Quoting 7544:
morning all looks like the gem has a lot in store starting this sat for fla

Link


GEM still depicts two storms for Florida. Yikes!
Member Since: June 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1437
403. 7544
1:03 PM GMT on October 05, 2011
morning all looks like the gem has a lot in store starting this sat for fla

Link
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6874
402. vinotinto
12:25 PM GMT on October 05, 2011
Please put the tropical summary first so we don't have to read all the climate change propaganda to get to the only real reason most of us read this blog.

Best Regards,
Michael
Member Since: September 24, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 22
401. guygee
12:20 PM GMT on October 05, 2011
As NWS-MLB forecasters advised in this past weekends AFDs, "Staying Tuned":


Quoting NOAA HPC:
PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
402 AM EDT WED OCT 05 2011

VALID 12Z SUN OCT 09 2011 - 12Z WED OCT 12 2011

...RAINY/WINDY WEATHER STILL SLATED FOR THE SUNSHINE STATE...

THE GENERAL FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO FEATURE TROUGHING IN THE
PLAINS AND RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THIS PERIOD...THOUGH WITH
DECREASING AMPLITUDE. UNDER THE BASE OF THE NORTHEASTERN RIDGE
WILL LURK A SUBTROPICAL/TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE
NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
MONDAY...OUTSIDE OF THE 00Z GFS BEING QUICKER THAN THE OTHER
GUIDANCE WITH A COUPLE SYSTEMS WITHIN THE FLOW PATTERN AND MORE
EASTWARD WITH THE POSSIBLE TROPICAL/SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE. SINCE
THE 00Z CANADIAN/00Z UKMET/00Z ECMWF WERE IN SUCH GOOD AGREEMENT
DURING THIS TIME FRAME AND WITHIN THE 12Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE
SPREAD...USED A COMPROMISE OF THEIR SOLUTIONS THROUGH MONDAY.
THEREAFTER...THE 00Z CANADIAN DEVELOPS TWO SURFACE CYCLONES FROM
THE NORTHWEST-MOVING MID-LEVEL LOW IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
AND HAS A MORE ZONAL LOOK TO THE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS CANADA THAN
SEEN ON THE OTHER GUIDANCE...SO DID NOT USE IT BEYOND MONDAY.
USED A 00Z ECMWF/12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN COMPROMISE FOR NEXT
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

FLORIDA AND THE SOUTHEAST COULD SEE WINDY CONDITIONS FROM A SUBTROPICAL/TROPICAL CYCLONE THIS PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS NO BETTER THAN AVERAGE IN PLACEMENT DUE TO THE LARGE CHANGE IN THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FROM THIS TIME YESTERDAY /ABOUT FIVE DEGREES OF LONGITUDE FARTHER WEST/. HOWEVER...IT IS EXPECTED TO BE A LARGE SYSTEM AS DISTURBED WEATHER FROM THE TAIL END OF A FRONTAL ZONE IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN DURING THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD COUPLES WITH THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH THE HEAVIEST BAND OF RAIN/HIGHEST WINDS WELL REMOVED TO THE NORTHEAST OF ITS CENTER. THE EXPECTED TRACK HAS CONVERGED UPON THAT OF THE LATE MAY 2009 GULF GALE WHICH BROUGHT OVER SEVEN INCHES OF RAIN TO NORTHEAST FLORIDA...AND ITS IMPACTS COULD BE SIMILAR. STAY TUNED.
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3188
400. prcane4you
12:08 PM GMT on October 05, 2011
Quoting AussieStorm:

You got one of those too, gee, and I thought it was only sent to me. Also get others too but mentioning them I might get a 24hr ban. lol

Philippe
Philippe...tropical storm warning for the fishes.
Member Since: June 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1252
399. TropicalAnalystwx13
12:08 PM GMT on October 05, 2011
I shall return....This afternoon.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32695
398. TropicalAnalystwx13
12:06 PM GMT on October 05, 2011
Quoting AussieStorm:

You got one of those too, gee, and I thought it was only sent to me. Also get others too but mentioning them I might get a 24hr ban. lol

Philippe

Organizing nicely now, T#'s continue to rise.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32695
397. prcane4you
12:06 PM GMT on October 05, 2011
Winds from west to east all over the tropical atlantic.It's all over there.
Member Since: June 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1252
396. AussieStorm
11:59 AM GMT on October 05, 2011
Quoting MahFL:


I got one from a nice Nigerian Prince !...lucky me !

You got one of those too, gee, and I thought it was only sent to me. Also get others too but mentioning them I might get a 24hr ban. lol

Philippe
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15962
395. mcluvincane
11:54 AM GMT on October 05, 2011


GFS 144 hrs
Member Since: June 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1396
394. MahFL
11:54 AM GMT on October 05, 2011
Quoting WeatherfanPR:
does somebody here received a strange mail on your wunderground account today ?


I got one from a nice Nigerian Prince !...lucky me !
Member Since: June 9, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 3805
393. DDR
11:53 AM GMT on October 05, 2011
It's been raining heavy in northern Trinidad for 25 mins,raining off and on for the past 5 days.
Member Since: April 27, 2007 Posts: 14 Comments: 1723
392. WxLogic
11:51 AM GMT on October 05, 2011
Quoting AussieStorm:

Good Evening, How's ya weather?
here it's clear and crisp but cloudy.


Aussie... not bad over here. My station reporting 62F outside (good for the energy bill!!!). WND out of the NE and SPD starting to pick up little by little and Partly Cloudy with moisture starting to creep up again.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 5038
391. AussieStorm
11:49 AM GMT on October 05, 2011
Quoting indianrivguy:
Aussie! Good evening mate, I've been gone a year or so.. missed ya!

Well you ain't missed much, except all the trolls and the bans.
Where did ya disappear to?
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15962
390. TropicalAnalystwx13
11:49 AM GMT on October 05, 2011
ECMWF @ 144 hours:

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32695

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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