Unprecedented Arctic ozone hole in 2011; a Florida tropical storm next week?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:01 PM GMT on October 04, 2011

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An unprecedented ozone hole opened in the Arctic during 2011, researchers reported this week in the journal Nature. Holes in the Antarctic ozone layer have opened up each spring since the early 1980s, but the Arctic had only shown modest springtime ozone losses in the 5% - 30% range over the past twenty years. But this year, massive ozone destruction of 80% occurred at altitudes of 18 - 20 kilometers in the Arctic during spring, resulting in Earth's first known case of twin ozone holes, one over each pole. During late March and portions of April, the Arctic ozone hole was positioned over heavily populated areas of Western Europe, allowing large levels of damaging ultraviolet rays to reach the surface. UV-B radiation causes skin damage that can lead to cancer, and has been observed to reduce crop yields in two-thirds of 300 important plant varieties studied (WMO, 2002.) The total loss of ozone in a column from the surface to the top of the atmosphere reached 40% during the peak of this year's Arctic ozone hole. Since each 1% drop in ozone levels results in about 1% more UV-B reaching Earth's surface (WMO, 2002), UV-B levels reaching the surface likely increased by 40% at the height of this year's hole. We know that an 11% increase in UV-B light can cause a 24% decrease in winter wheat yield (Zheng et al., 2003), so this year's Arctic ozone hole may have caused noticeable reductions in Europe's winter wheat crop.


Figure 1. Left: Ozone in Earth's stratosphere at an altitude of approximately 12 miles (20 kilometers) in mid-March 2011, near the peak of the 2011 Arctic ozone loss. Right: chlorine monoxide--the primary agent of chemical ozone destruction in the cold polar lower stratosphere--the same day and altitude. Image credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech.

What caused this year's unprecedented Arctic ozone hole?
Earth's ozone holes are due to the presence of human-emitted CFC gases in the stratosphere. The ozone destruction process is greatly accelerated when the atmosphere is cold enough to make clouds in the stratosphere. These polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) act like ozone destruction factories, by providing convenient surfaces for the reactions that destroy ozone to occur. PSCs only form in the 24-hour darkness of unusually cold winters near the poles; the atmosphere is too warm elsewhere to support PSCs. Stratospheric temperatures are warmer in the Arctic than the Antarctic, so PSCs and ozone destruction in the Arctic has, in the past, been much less than in the Antarctic. In order to get temperatures cold enough to allow formation of PSCs, a strong vortex of swirling winds around the pole needs to develop. Such a "polar vortex" isolates the cold air near the pole, keeping it from mixing with warmer air from the mid-latitudes. A strong polar vortex in winter and spring is common in the Antarctic, but less common in the Arctic, since there are more land masses that tend to cause large-scale disruptions to the winds of the polar vortex, allowing warm air from the south to mix northwards. However, as the authors of the Nature study wrote, "The persistence of a strong, cold vortex from December through to the end of March was unprecedented. In February - March 2011, the barrier to transport at the Arctic vortex edge was the strongest in either hemisphere in the last ~30 years. This unusual polar vortex, combined with very cold Arctic stratospheric temperatures typical of what we've seen in recent decades, led to the most favorable conditions ever observed for formation of Arctic PSCs. The reasons for this unusual vortex are unknown.


Figure 2. Global lower stratospheric departure of temperature from average since 1979, as measured by satellites. The large spikes in 1982 and 1991 are due to the eruptions of El Chicon and Mt. Pinatubo, respectively. These volcanoes ejected huge quantities of sulphuric acid dust into the stratosphere. This dust absorbed large quantities of solar radiation, heating the stratosphere. Stratospheric temperature has been generally decreasing in recent decades, due to the twin effects of ozone depletion and the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the lower atmosphere. During Jan - Aug 2011, Earth's stratosphere had its 3rd coldest such period on record. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.

Greenhouse gases cause stratospheric cooling
When ozone absorbs UV light, it heats the surrounding air. Thus, the loss of ozone in recent decades has helped cool the stratosphere, resulting in a feedback loop where colder temperatures create more PSCs, resulting in even more ozone destruction. However, in 1987, CFCs and other ozone-depleting substances were banned. As a result, CFC levels in the stratosphere peaked in 2000, and had fallen by 3.8% as of 2008, according to NASA. Unfortunately, despite the fact that CFCs are falling in concentration, the stratosphere is not warming up. The recovery of the ozone layer is being delayed by human emissions of greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide and methane. These gases trap heat near the surface, but cause cooling of the stratosphere and increased formation of the PSCs that help destroy ozone. We need only look as far as our sister planet, Venus, to see an example of how the greenhouse effect warms the surface but cools the upper atmosphere. Venus's atmosphere is 96.5% carbon dioxide, which has triggered a hellish run-away greenhouse effect. The average surface temperature on Venus is a sizzling 894 °F, hot enough to melt lead. Venus's upper atmosphere, though, is a startling 4 - 5 times colder than Earth's upper atmosphere. The explanation of this greenhouse gas-caused surface heating and upper air cooling is not simple, but good discussions can be found at Max Planck Institute for Chemistry and realclimate.org, for those unafraid of radiative transfer theory. One way to think about the problem is that the amount of infrared heat energy radiated out to space by a planet is roughly equal to the amount of solar energy it receives from the sun. If the surface atmosphere warms, there must be compensating cooling elsewhere in the atmosphere in order to keep the amount of heat given off by the planet the same and balanced. As emissions of greenhouse gases continue to rise, their cooling effect on the stratosphere will increase. This will make recovery of the stratospheric ozone layer much slower.

Greenhouse gases cause cooling higher up, too
Greenhouse gases have also led to the cooling of the atmosphere at levels higher than the stratosphere. Over the past 30 years, the Earth's surface temperature has increased 0.2 - 0.4 °C, while the temperature in the mesosphere, about 50 - 80 km above ground, has cooled 5 - 10 °C (Beig et al., 2006). There is no appreciable cooling due to ozone destruction at these altitudes, so nearly all of this dramatic cooling is due to the addition of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. Even greater cooling of 17 °C per decade has been observed high in the ionosphere, at 350 km altitude. This has affected the orbits of orbiting satellites, due to decreased drag, since the upper atmosphere has shrunk and moved closer to the surface (Lastovicka et al., 2006). The density of the air has declined 2 - 3% per decade the past 30 years at 350 km altitude. So, in a sense, the sky IS falling due to the greenhouse effect!

Since any increase in solar energy would heat both the lower and upper atmosphere, the observed drop in upper atmospheric temperatures in the past 30 years argues against an increase in energy coming from the sun being responsible for global warming. The observed cooling of the upper atmosphere is strong evidence that the warming at Earth's surface is due to human-emitted greenhouse gases that trap heat near the surface and cause compensating cooling aloft. It should also give us additional confidence in the climate models, since they predicted that this upper atmospheric cooling would occur. Keep in mind, also, that 2010 was tied for Earth's hottest year on record, and the amount of energy coming from the sun during 2009 - 2010 was the lowest since satellite measurements began in the late 1970s. There has been no long-term increase in energy coming from the sun in recent decades, and the notion that global warming is due to an increase in energy coming from the sun simply doesn't add up.

Commentary
The development of an ozone hole in the Arctic is a discouraging reminder that humans are capable of causing harmful and unexpected planetary-scale changes to the environment. A 2002 assessment of the ozone layer by the World Meteorological Organization concluded that an Arctic ozone hole would be unlikely to occur, due to the lack of a strong Arctic vortex in winter, and the fact CFCs levels had started to decline. However, an Arctic ozone hole may now become a regular visitor in the future. "Day-to-day temperatures in the 2010 - 11 Arctic winter did not reach lower values than in previous cold Arctic winters," said the lead author of this year's Nature study, Gloria Manney, of NASA and the New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology in Socorro. "The difference from previous winters is that temperatures were low enough to produce ozone-destroying forms of chlorine for a much longer time. This implies that if winter Arctic stratospheric temperatures drop just slightly in the future, for example as a result of climate change, then severe Arctic ozone loss may occur more frequently." I might add that its a very good thing CFCs were banned in 1987, or else the Arctic ozone hole would have opened up much sooner and would have been far worse. It turned out that the costs of the CFC ban, while substantial, were far less than the dire cost predictions that the CFC industry warned of. It is highly probable that we will see future nasty climate change surprises far more serious than the Arctic ozone hole if we continue on our present business-as-usual approach of emitting huge quantities of greenhouse gases. Humans would be wise to act forcefully to cut emissions of greenhouse gases, as the cost of inaction is highly likely to be far greater than the cost of action.

References
Manney, G.L., et al., 2011, Unprecedented Arctic ozone loss in 2011, Nature (2011), doi:10.1038/nature10556

Weather Underground Ozone Hole FAQ

World Meteorological Organization (WMO), "Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion: 2002 Global Ozone Research and Monitoring Project - Report #47", WMO, Nairobi, Kenya, 2002.

Zheng, Y., W. Gao, J.R. Slusser, R.H. Grant, C. Wang, "Yield and yield formation of field winter wheat in response to supplemental solar ultraviolet-B radiation," Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, Volume 120, Issues 1-4, 24 December 2003.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Philippe. Philippe has a Central Dense Overcast (CDO) of high cirrus clouds characteristic of a tropical storm nearing hurricane strength.

Tropical Storm Philippe no threat to land
In the middle Atlantic, Tropical Storm Philippe has managed to grow a bit more organized in the face of high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots. Satellite loops show Philippe is a small system with a modest amount heavy thunderstorm activity, with the surface circulation partially exposed to view by wind shear. Wind shear will remain high today, but is expected to relax to the moderate range on Wednesday as Philippe recurves to the northeast. This may allow Philippe to intensify into a hurricane, as predicted by several of the intensity forecast models. It is unlikely that Philippe will trouble any land areas.

A Florida tropical storm next week?
Recent runs by all of the computer forecast models predict that an area of low pressure will develop near Florida this weekend or early next week. The counter-clockwise flow around this low will bring strong winds and heavy rains to Northeast Florida and the Georgia coast, and it is possible this storm will develop into a tropical or subtropical storm. The situation is similar to Subtropical Storm Four of October 4, 1974, according to the latest extended forecast discussion from NOAA's Hydrometeorological Prediction Center. That storm brought 10 - 14 inches of rain to the east coast of Florida and strong onshore winds of 30 - 40 mph that caused beach erosion and coastal flooding. The exact formation location of this weekend's storm is still in doubt, with the ECMWF and UKMET models predicting the storm will form in the Gulf of Mexico off the west coast of Florida, and the GFS model predicting formation over the Bahamas. We'll have to wait for future model runs before we can get a better handle on where and when this storm will most likely develop.

Jeff Masters

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240. washingtonian115
10:47 PM GMT on October 04, 2011
Quoting VolunteerGator:
For reasons with no justification or scientific evidence and only to disagree. :)

That is Impossible!!
Um...First of all if you were on here not to long ago I explained why I think we may see a November hurricane.With TCHP likley to remain high through late October into early November and the door is also still open for a storm to form depending on the weather patterns at that time.In nutreal years like this as well like 2005 and 2008 it is a possibility.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17476
239. VolunteerGator
10:38 PM GMT on October 04, 2011
Quoting VolunteerGator:
For reasons with no justification or scientific evidence and only to disagree. :)

That is Impossible!!
Formerly Scooster67
Member Since: September 24, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 20
238. VolunteerGator
10:37 PM GMT on October 04, 2011
Quoting washingtonian115:
I think it's possible that we could see a hurricane in November this year.
For reasons with no justification or scientific evidence and only to disagree. :)

That is Impossible!!
Member Since: September 24, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 20
237. TropicalAnalystwx13
10:28 PM GMT on October 04, 2011
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.2 4.3 1.5

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.6 / 976.5mb/ 82.2kt

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32507
236. TropicalAnalystwx13
10:27 PM GMT on October 04, 2011
Quoting KoritheMan:

No? It's clearly big enough to have its own distinction within the English dictionary. ;)

Yeah, no. :P

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32507
235. KoritheMan
10:24 PM GMT on October 04, 2011

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Yeah...not a big difference.
No? It's clearly big enough to have its own distinction within the English dictionary. ;)
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 596 Comments: 21029
234. TropicalAnalystwx13
10:23 PM GMT on October 04, 2011
Quoting KoritheMan:


Couple = two

Several = more than two


Yeah...not a big difference.

Floria is going to have several days of very heavy rain and strong winds. ;)
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32507
233. presslord
10:23 PM GMT on October 04, 2011
Quoting KoritheMan:


Couple = two

Several = more than two


yup
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10492
232. superpete
10:21 PM GMT on October 04, 2011
Quoting stormpetrol:


Nasty looking weather that's for sure, worse I would say we had this year , the rain was much needed and made it feel a little cooler. I still think something might be starting to brew in our area, it just has that "look"

I agree with you there, we are approaching that time of the year where potential development close by is the threat. Especially down south near Nica'/ Colombian coastline area, which some of the models indicate for the coming week's +.
Member Since: October 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 704
231. KoritheMan
10:21 PM GMT on October 04, 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

?


Couple = two

Several = more than two
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 596 Comments: 21029
230. TropicalAnalystwx13
10:20 PM GMT on October 04, 2011
Quoting KoritheMan:


Not by a longshot, bro.

?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32507
229. stormpetrol
10:17 PM GMT on October 04, 2011
Quoting superpete:
Stormpetrol- Had some heavy rain here today & more on the way through this evening, by the look of it.


Nasty looking weather that's for sure, worse I would say we had this year , the rain was much needed and made it feel a little cooler. I still think something might be starting to brew in our area, it just has that "look"
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7989
228. washingtonian115
10:16 PM GMT on October 04, 2011
I think it's possible that we could see a hurricane in November this year.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17476
227. pmagn
10:14 PM GMT on October 04, 2011
Thank for the excellent coverage of the Ozone hole...
Member Since: July 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7
226. PlazaRed
10:11 PM GMT on October 04, 2011
Just returning to Dr,Masters opening part of the blog:-
I and several people I know are concerned about what he has written about here regarding an ozone hole, as it must have very far reaching effects in the near future. This type of situation is not natural as far as I can see as it has not been monitored previously, the effects may even be catastrophic for some parts of the northern hemisphere.
I have sent out links on e-mails to several people to look at the blog, especially with a note to the possible effects on food production as this year global food production may not meet demands,hence price rises ( for those who can afford to pay,)and with the problems in the southern /USA with droughts and other area of the world all we need is another problem!
This information should be given some attention by the press ASAP.
Member Since: January 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2093
225. weatherbro
10:10 PM GMT on October 04, 2011
the models are trending more east with this system.
Member Since: May 26, 2007 Posts: 47 Comments: 1352
224. KoritheMan
10:05 PM GMT on October 04, 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Couple...Several...they are the same thing... :\


Not by a longshot, bro.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 596 Comments: 21029
223. superpete
10:05 PM GMT on October 04, 2011
Stormpetrol- Had some heavy rain here today & more on the way through this evening, by the look of it.
Member Since: October 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 704
222. interstatelover7165
10:04 PM GMT on October 04, 2011
Not that this matters, I thought I should share that I uploaded my first video onto youtube.
Member Since: August 18, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 994
221. stormpetrol
10:02 PM GMT on October 04, 2011






Station 42056
NDBC
Location: 19.802N 84.857W
Conditions as of:
Tue, 04 Oct 2011 20:50:00 UTC
Winds: W (280°) at 7.8 kt gusting to 9.7 kt
Significant Wave Height: 3.0 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 6 sec
Mean Wave Direction: ESE (116°)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.96 in and falling
Air Temperature: 77.0 F
Dew Point: 72.0 F
Water Temperature: 85.3 F
View Details - View History
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7989
220. stormpetrol
9:57 PM GMT on October 04, 2011
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7989
219. IceCoast
9:54 PM GMT on October 04, 2011
Quoting presslord:
Do analogs actually serve any useful forecasting purpose? Or are they purely for entertainment?


In my opinion, analogs can be some of the best forecasting tools we have. Of course this doesn't mean simply looking at any given track, on a given date, but what the overall pattern was when particular storms took place.
Member Since: October 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1267
218. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
9:53 PM GMT on October 04, 2011
IWASTOTALLYRIGHT

you got anything better to do then show us how stupid you are
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54827
216. HurricaneHunterJoe
9:45 PM GMT on October 04, 2011
Quoting will40:



the 06z run showed two different systems


Is one tropical and the other sub tropical? Does it distinguish?
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5237
215. TropicalAnalystwx13
9:45 PM GMT on October 04, 2011
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Huh...pretty moist ITCZ/ Monsoon trof.

Go watch Levi's video, he explains it.

Thunderstorms being sheared because of a cut-off low pressure area that sent a strong front all the way up into the amazon of South America, which created a cyclonic flow, shearing the shower/thunderstorm activity associated with the ITCZ/monsoon trough.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32507
214. presslord
9:40 PM GMT on October 04, 2011
Do analogs actually serve any useful forecasting purpose? Or are they purely for entertainment?
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10492
213. WeatherNerdPR
9:38 PM GMT on October 04, 2011
Huh...pretty moist ITCZ/ Monsoon trof.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
212. washingtonian115
9:36 PM GMT on October 04, 2011
Poor Florida always up under the gun when it comes to storms/hurricanes.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17476
211. WeatherNerdPR
9:35 PM GMT on October 04, 2011
Good Afternoon, Philippe is back to his old self, maintaining himself with strong bursts of convection.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
210. TropicalAnalystwx13
9:28 PM GMT on October 04, 2011
Quoting weatherbro:


I mean this ain't gonna be a week long event like May 19-20 2009.:)

That took forever to get out of the way.

Well, it isn't just going to shoot out either.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32507
209. PlazaRed
9:24 PM GMT on October 04, 2011
Noting what you say:-
199. tramp96,
Your arguments are very difficult to contest at grass roots level so to speak.
Here is my attempt at my justifications:-
5 years ago I installed a solar system that works perfectly in my workshops/garage. It cost about $800 including panels,batteries,inverter, regulator etc.
since the installation all of it has worked perfectly BUT how much CO2 did it take to make it and if I had been connected to the power grid who here charge about 20 cents a kilowatt would I have in fact used less CO2.
The costs are in my favour as I would have had to pay about $150 a year standing connection charges plus electricity use charges, so I am in pocket BUT is the planet out of pocket?on the amount of CO2 it took to make all my bits compared with me just buying the power in.
My conclusion to my own argument is that I and everybody else has to use less power.
What may be needed is a national power plan which is sustainable with penalties for excessive consumption.
Member Since: January 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2093
208. weatherbro
9:24 PM GMT on October 04, 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Couple...Several...they are the same thing... :\


I mean this ain't gonna be a week long event like May 19-20 2009.:)

That took forever to get out of the way.
Member Since: May 26, 2007 Posts: 47 Comments: 1352
207. weatherbro
9:18 PM GMT on October 04, 2011
Looks like the best analogs for this subtropical storm is one on October 14th 1956(which didn't acquire tropical characteristics) and another on October 4th 1974. Those two Octobers had the exact same setup as we'll see this weekend. Right now I'm opting for a path similar to subtropical storm 4 in 1974.
Member Since: May 26, 2007 Posts: 47 Comments: 1352
206. CybrTeddy
9:14 PM GMT on October 04, 2011
KUEFC, what on earth are you talking about? There was loads of development that was predicted in the Caribbean last year, late in the season like now.



Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24459
205. bohonkweatherman
9:08 PM GMT on October 04, 2011
Quoting bohonkweatherman:


I am 25 miles away and I can see the smoke big time, looks like a huge dark cloud in clear skies.
I see the Bastrop fire from my house, unreal, hope it does not burn more homes, I know DC10 is fighting it.
Member Since: July 5, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1348
204. bohonkweatherman
9:07 PM GMT on October 04, 2011
>
Member Since: July 5, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1348
203. TropicalAnalystwx13
9:05 PM GMT on October 04, 2011
Quoting KUEFC:
take it you havent seen the cpc prediction? They are calling for a higher chance of development in the carribean the week after next when the strong pulse of the mjo returns, now if i remember last year it just didnt happen and kept getting pushed back

But, it is ALREADY returning...Its not being forecast to return, it IS returning.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32507
200. KUEFC
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Huh?

The MJO is returning now..
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Huh?

The MJO is returning now..
take it you havent seen the cpc prediction? They are calling for a higher chance of development in the carribean the week after next when the strong pulse of the mjo returns, now if i remember last year it just didnt happen and kept getting pushed back
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
18Z NAM @84HR:



Tight pressure gradient (25KTS to 30KTS).
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Fire warning for Bastrop county Texas right now. Looks like fire is to the North of the city currently by Herron Trail. You can start to pick it out in the last few 1km VIS satellite images.


Fire Warning
TXC021-042315-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FIRE WARNING
BASTROP COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
315 PM CDT TUE OCT 4 2011

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE
BASTROP COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

ALL RESIDENTS ON HERRON TRAIL IN BASTROP COUNTY ARE ASKED TO
EVACUATE IMMEDIATELY. ALSO RESIDENTS ON FARM TO MARKET 2336
BETWEEN HERRON TRAIL AND OAK HILL CEMETERY ROAD.

Member Since: October 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1267
Quoting aburttschell:



hmmmmmm...Artic ice increasing in volume from 2008


Link



Wow, your link goes to cherry picker Steven Goddard's blog. I'm impressed ;)


Organized Climate Change Denial “Played a Crucial Role in Blocking Domestic Legislation,” Top Scholars Conclude

Two leading scholars have written an excellent analysis of the Denier Industrial Complex.

Riley E. Dunlap, a sociology professor at Oklahoma State, and Aaron M. McCright of Michigan State call it the “climate change denial machine” in their book chapter, “Organized Climate Change Denial,” for the new Oxford Handbook of Climate Change and Society.

In a note, the authors explain: The actions of those who consistently seek to deny the seriousness of climate change make the terms “denial” and “denier” more accurate than “skepticism” and “skeptic,” particularly since all scientists tend to be skeptics.







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Quoting KUEFC:
Also the mjo isnt forecast to come into play until just under 2 weeks anything can happen in that time ie more cold fronts for florida

Huh?

The MJO is returning now..
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32507
194. KUEFC
Also the mjo isnt forecast to come into play until just under 2 weeks anything can happen in that time ie more cold fronts for florida
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting weatherbro:


Not several. Only a couple of days as this gets pushed northeastwards up the eastern seaboard. Most models have it meandering around Southeast Georgia/Northeast Florida for a day(Monday) before a weakness in the high in the mid Atlantic pulls it northwards.

Expect more rain mid-late next week in the mid Atlantic/Northeast unfortunately.

Couple...Several...they are the same thing... :\
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32507
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I've noticed over the past few days that people seem to be getting the Caribbean development and Subtropical development mixed up together.

If we are going to see Subtropical development, it will be this weekend into next week as the MJO really begins to return to the area and the air begins to converge and pile up in the northwestern Caribbean/Bahamas/Eastern Gulf of Mexico area. Whether or not we get Subtropical development is unseen at this point, but it looks possible, and regardless of whether we do or not, Florida is in for several days of heavy rain and gale-force winds.


Not several. Only a couple of days as this gets pushed northeastwards up the eastern seaboard. Most models have it meandering around Southeast Georgia/Northeast Florida for a day(Monday) before a weakness in the high in the mid Atlantic pulls it northwards.

Expect more rain mid-late next week in the mid Atlantic/Northeast unfortunately.
Member Since: May 26, 2007 Posts: 47 Comments: 1352
What I think is scary is the idea of a shrinking atmosphere. We only have a very thin atmosphere and if it keeps shrinking we'll be like fish when the creek dries up in the summer. Interesting and admirably sane discussions today on the hot topic of our planet and its atmosphere.
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190. KUEFC
Since when has 25mph been gale force?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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