Unprecedented Arctic ozone hole in 2011; a Florida tropical storm next week?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:01 PM GMT on October 04, 2011

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An unprecedented ozone hole opened in the Arctic during 2011, researchers reported this week in the journal Nature. Holes in the Antarctic ozone layer have opened up each spring since the early 1980s, but the Arctic had only shown modest springtime ozone losses in the 5% - 30% range over the past twenty years. But this year, massive ozone destruction of 80% occurred at altitudes of 18 - 20 kilometers in the Arctic during spring, resulting in Earth's first known case of twin ozone holes, one over each pole. During late March and portions of April, the Arctic ozone hole was positioned over heavily populated areas of Western Europe, allowing large levels of damaging ultraviolet rays to reach the surface. UV-B radiation causes skin damage that can lead to cancer, and has been observed to reduce crop yields in two-thirds of 300 important plant varieties studied (WMO, 2002.) The total loss of ozone in a column from the surface to the top of the atmosphere reached 40% during the peak of this year's Arctic ozone hole. Since each 1% drop in ozone levels results in about 1% more UV-B reaching Earth's surface (WMO, 2002), UV-B levels reaching the surface likely increased by 40% at the height of this year's hole. We know that an 11% increase in UV-B light can cause a 24% decrease in winter wheat yield (Zheng et al., 2003), so this year's Arctic ozone hole may have caused noticeable reductions in Europe's winter wheat crop.


Figure 1. Left: Ozone in Earth's stratosphere at an altitude of approximately 12 miles (20 kilometers) in mid-March 2011, near the peak of the 2011 Arctic ozone loss. Right: chlorine monoxide--the primary agent of chemical ozone destruction in the cold polar lower stratosphere--the same day and altitude. Image credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech.

What caused this year's unprecedented Arctic ozone hole?
Earth's ozone holes are due to the presence of human-emitted CFC gases in the stratosphere. The ozone destruction process is greatly accelerated when the atmosphere is cold enough to make clouds in the stratosphere. These polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) act like ozone destruction factories, by providing convenient surfaces for the reactions that destroy ozone to occur. PSCs only form in the 24-hour darkness of unusually cold winters near the poles; the atmosphere is too warm elsewhere to support PSCs. Stratospheric temperatures are warmer in the Arctic than the Antarctic, so PSCs and ozone destruction in the Arctic has, in the past, been much less than in the Antarctic. In order to get temperatures cold enough to allow formation of PSCs, a strong vortex of swirling winds around the pole needs to develop. Such a "polar vortex" isolates the cold air near the pole, keeping it from mixing with warmer air from the mid-latitudes. A strong polar vortex in winter and spring is common in the Antarctic, but less common in the Arctic, since there are more land masses that tend to cause large-scale disruptions to the winds of the polar vortex, allowing warm air from the south to mix northwards. However, as the authors of the Nature study wrote, "The persistence of a strong, cold vortex from December through to the end of March was unprecedented. In February - March 2011, the barrier to transport at the Arctic vortex edge was the strongest in either hemisphere in the last ~30 years. This unusual polar vortex, combined with very cold Arctic stratospheric temperatures typical of what we've seen in recent decades, led to the most favorable conditions ever observed for formation of Arctic PSCs. The reasons for this unusual vortex are unknown.


Figure 2. Global lower stratospheric departure of temperature from average since 1979, as measured by satellites. The large spikes in 1982 and 1991 are due to the eruptions of El Chicon and Mt. Pinatubo, respectively. These volcanoes ejected huge quantities of sulphuric acid dust into the stratosphere. This dust absorbed large quantities of solar radiation, heating the stratosphere. Stratospheric temperature has been generally decreasing in recent decades, due to the twin effects of ozone depletion and the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the lower atmosphere. During Jan - Aug 2011, Earth's stratosphere had its 3rd coldest such period on record. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.

Greenhouse gases cause stratospheric cooling
When ozone absorbs UV light, it heats the surrounding air. Thus, the loss of ozone in recent decades has helped cool the stratosphere, resulting in a feedback loop where colder temperatures create more PSCs, resulting in even more ozone destruction. However, in 1987, CFCs and other ozone-depleting substances were banned. As a result, CFC levels in the stratosphere peaked in 2000, and had fallen by 3.8% as of 2008, according to NASA. Unfortunately, despite the fact that CFCs are falling in concentration, the stratosphere is not warming up. The recovery of the ozone layer is being delayed by human emissions of greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide and methane. These gases trap heat near the surface, but cause cooling of the stratosphere and increased formation of the PSCs that help destroy ozone. We need only look as far as our sister planet, Venus, to see an example of how the greenhouse effect warms the surface but cools the upper atmosphere. Venus's atmosphere is 96.5% carbon dioxide, which has triggered a hellish run-away greenhouse effect. The average surface temperature on Venus is a sizzling 894 °F, hot enough to melt lead. Venus's upper atmosphere, though, is a startling 4 - 5 times colder than Earth's upper atmosphere. The explanation of this greenhouse gas-caused surface heating and upper air cooling is not simple, but good discussions can be found at Max Planck Institute for Chemistry and realclimate.org, for those unafraid of radiative transfer theory. One way to think about the problem is that the amount of infrared heat energy radiated out to space by a planet is roughly equal to the amount of solar energy it receives from the sun. If the surface atmosphere warms, there must be compensating cooling elsewhere in the atmosphere in order to keep the amount of heat given off by the planet the same and balanced. As emissions of greenhouse gases continue to rise, their cooling effect on the stratosphere will increase. This will make recovery of the stratospheric ozone layer much slower.

Greenhouse gases cause cooling higher up, too
Greenhouse gases have also led to the cooling of the atmosphere at levels higher than the stratosphere. Over the past 30 years, the Earth's surface temperature has increased 0.2 - 0.4 °C, while the temperature in the mesosphere, about 50 - 80 km above ground, has cooled 5 - 10 °C (Beig et al., 2006). There is no appreciable cooling due to ozone destruction at these altitudes, so nearly all of this dramatic cooling is due to the addition of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. Even greater cooling of 17 °C per decade has been observed high in the ionosphere, at 350 km altitude. This has affected the orbits of orbiting satellites, due to decreased drag, since the upper atmosphere has shrunk and moved closer to the surface (Lastovicka et al., 2006). The density of the air has declined 2 - 3% per decade the past 30 years at 350 km altitude. So, in a sense, the sky IS falling due to the greenhouse effect!

Since any increase in solar energy would heat both the lower and upper atmosphere, the observed drop in upper atmospheric temperatures in the past 30 years argues against an increase in energy coming from the sun being responsible for global warming. The observed cooling of the upper atmosphere is strong evidence that the warming at Earth's surface is due to human-emitted greenhouse gases that trap heat near the surface and cause compensating cooling aloft. It should also give us additional confidence in the climate models, since they predicted that this upper atmospheric cooling would occur. Keep in mind, also, that 2010 was tied for Earth's hottest year on record, and the amount of energy coming from the sun during 2009 - 2010 was the lowest since satellite measurements began in the late 1970s. There has been no long-term increase in energy coming from the sun in recent decades, and the notion that global warming is due to an increase in energy coming from the sun simply doesn't add up.

Commentary
The development of an ozone hole in the Arctic is a discouraging reminder that humans are capable of causing harmful and unexpected planetary-scale changes to the environment. A 2002 assessment of the ozone layer by the World Meteorological Organization concluded that an Arctic ozone hole would be unlikely to occur, due to the lack of a strong Arctic vortex in winter, and the fact CFCs levels had started to decline. However, an Arctic ozone hole may now become a regular visitor in the future. "Day-to-day temperatures in the 2010 - 11 Arctic winter did not reach lower values than in previous cold Arctic winters," said the lead author of this year's Nature study, Gloria Manney, of NASA and the New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology in Socorro. "The difference from previous winters is that temperatures were low enough to produce ozone-destroying forms of chlorine for a much longer time. This implies that if winter Arctic stratospheric temperatures drop just slightly in the future, for example as a result of climate change, then severe Arctic ozone loss may occur more frequently." I might add that its a very good thing CFCs were banned in 1987, or else the Arctic ozone hole would have opened up much sooner and would have been far worse. It turned out that the costs of the CFC ban, while substantial, were far less than the dire cost predictions that the CFC industry warned of. It is highly probable that we will see future nasty climate change surprises far more serious than the Arctic ozone hole if we continue on our present business-as-usual approach of emitting huge quantities of greenhouse gases. Humans would be wise to act forcefully to cut emissions of greenhouse gases, as the cost of inaction is highly likely to be far greater than the cost of action.

References
Manney, G.L., et al., 2011, Unprecedented Arctic ozone loss in 2011, Nature (2011), doi:10.1038/nature10556

Weather Underground Ozone Hole FAQ

World Meteorological Organization (WMO), "Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion: 2002 Global Ozone Research and Monitoring Project - Report #47", WMO, Nairobi, Kenya, 2002.

Zheng, Y., W. Gao, J.R. Slusser, R.H. Grant, C. Wang, "Yield and yield formation of field winter wheat in response to supplemental solar ultraviolet-B radiation," Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, Volume 120, Issues 1-4, 24 December 2003.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Philippe. Philippe has a Central Dense Overcast (CDO) of high cirrus clouds characteristic of a tropical storm nearing hurricane strength.

Tropical Storm Philippe no threat to land
In the middle Atlantic, Tropical Storm Philippe has managed to grow a bit more organized in the face of high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots. Satellite loops show Philippe is a small system with a modest amount heavy thunderstorm activity, with the surface circulation partially exposed to view by wind shear. Wind shear will remain high today, but is expected to relax to the moderate range on Wednesday as Philippe recurves to the northeast. This may allow Philippe to intensify into a hurricane, as predicted by several of the intensity forecast models. It is unlikely that Philippe will trouble any land areas.

A Florida tropical storm next week?
Recent runs by all of the computer forecast models predict that an area of low pressure will develop near Florida this weekend or early next week. The counter-clockwise flow around this low will bring strong winds and heavy rains to Northeast Florida and the Georgia coast, and it is possible this storm will develop into a tropical or subtropical storm. The situation is similar to Subtropical Storm Four of October 4, 1974, according to the latest extended forecast discussion from NOAA's Hydrometeorological Prediction Center. That storm brought 10 - 14 inches of rain to the east coast of Florida and strong onshore winds of 30 - 40 mph that caused beach erosion and coastal flooding. The exact formation location of this weekend's storm is still in doubt, with the ECMWF and UKMET models predicting the storm will form in the Gulf of Mexico off the west coast of Florida, and the GFS model predicting formation over the Bahamas. We'll have to wait for future model runs before we can get a better handle on where and when this storm will most likely develop.

Jeff Masters

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ECMWF @ 144 hours:

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
MLB AFD:

...THU-SAT...BACK DOOR FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OVER THE ATLANTIC WITH
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE COVERING THE EASTERN SEABOARD. DEPTH OF
MOISTURE WILL STEADILY INCREASE DUE TO BREEZY/WINDY NORTHEAST/EAST
FLOW. EXPECT 30-40 POPS THU-FRI.

THEN AS ENHANCED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE FROM THE WEAK BOUNDARY
ARRIVES FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AND MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF
VICINITY OF FLORIDA...THE RAIN CHANCES WILL GO UP...AT LEAST TO
40-50 PERCENT. MENTION OF ISOLATED STORMS ALSO INCLUDED THEN. SUCH
A SETUP COULD ALSO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.

SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A HYBRID
TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING VICINITY FLORIDA STRAITS AND
LIFTING NORTHWEST TO NORTH INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE
GFS SHOWS THE LOW HUGGING THE WEST COAST WHILE THE ECMWF IS A
LITTLE FARTHER WEST...BUT OVERALL THEY ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT.

THE EXACT DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM ARE FAR FROM CERTAIN BUT THE
THREATS INCLUDE HEAVY RAINFALL...WINDY CONDITIONS AND BEACH
EROSION. THESE SYSTEMS ARE ALSO NOTORIOUS FOR PRODUCING ISOLATED
TORNADOES.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4972
Quoting Ameister12:

How about this guy?

Not even been focused on that little guy....The models do show it becoming a hurricane like the one ahead of it, so it seems the EPAC may have two more systems left. Models also show both of them threatening Mexico, the 20% one before the 50% one.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Probably the Eastern Pacific's last storm in the making...Should become a hurricane, and then likely a major hurricane.

EP, 97, 2011100506, , BEST, 0, 118N, 1138W, 25, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 120, 60, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,


What about this guy behind 97?
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Aussie! Good evening mate, I've been gone a year or so.. missed ya!
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Quoting TropicTraveler:

Wetlands are wonderful. I love them. Birds and grasses and fish nurseries.....


just don't eat yellow snow....


I sorta shook my head at that comparison.. wetlands give birth to and nurture many wonderful things, I see them as you do.

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.
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Quoting WxLogic:
Good Morning
Quoting indianrivguy:
and good morning to you too!

Good Evening, How's ya weather?
here it's clear and crisp but cloudy.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
Probably the Eastern Pacific's last storm in the making...Should become a hurricane, and then likely a major hurricane.

EP, 97, 2011100506, , BEST, 0, 118N, 1138W, 25, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 120, 60, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting FrankZapper:
This bog has become a wetlands.

Wetlands are wonderful. I love them. Birds and grasses and fish nurseries.....
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Miami NWS Discussion

EXTENDED FORECAST...
THIS WEEKEND WEATHER WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THE FRONT IS LOCATED AND
IF A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ALONG IT
OR NOT. AT THIS TIME THE...ECMWF MODEL SHOW A LOW DEVELOPING OVER
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND MOVING IT
TO THE NORTH TOWARDS THE PANHANDLE LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK PULLING THE FRONT THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA ON SATURDAY INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE GFS MODEL SHOWS A WEAK LOW TO DEVELOP IN
THE FLORIDA KEYS AND MOVES IT TO THE NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE WESTERN
PANHANDLE DURING THE SAME TIME PULLING THE FRONT THROUGH THE CWA ON
SATURDAY.

SO WILL CONTINUE THE SCATTERED POPS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THIS
WEEKEND WITH THE BEST CHANCE ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...AS
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA. DUE TO THE LACK OF SUNSHINE ON
SATURDAY ACROSS THE MOST OF THE CWA...THE THUNDER CHANCE WILL BE
LOW OVER THE AREA. ON SUNDAY...THE THUNDER CHANCE WILL REMAIN LOW
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND THE ENERGY SUPPORT
WILL BE NORTH OF THE CWA. FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM THIS EVENT
PLEASE SEE THE HYDRO SECTION BELOW.

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CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.4 / 995.3mb/ 53.0kt

3.2 from Objective ADT.
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and good morning to you too!
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something is expected to happen wish it would just go on to next yr
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Good Morning
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4972
HPC Preliminary Extended Forecast Discussion

Excerpt:

FLORIDA AND THE SOUTHEAST COULD SEE WINDY CONDITIONS FROM A
SUBTROPICAL/TROPICAL CYCLONE THIS PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS NO BETTER
THAN AVERAGE IN PLACEMENT DUE TO THE LARGE CHANGE IN THE GLOBAL
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FROM THIS TIME YESTERDAY /ABOUT FIVE DEGREES OF
LONGITUDE FARTHER WEST/. HOWEVER...IT IS EXPECTED TO BE A LARGE
SYSTEM AS DISTURBED WEATHER FROM THE TAIL END OF A FRONTAL ZONE IN
THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN DURING THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD COUPLES WITH
THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH THE HEAVIEST BAND OF RAIN/HIGHEST
WINDS WELL REMOVED TO THE NORTHEAST OF ITS CENTER. THE EXPECTED
TRACK HAS CONVERGED UPON THAT OF THE LATE MAY 2009 GULF GALE WHICH
BROUGHT OVER SEVEN INCHES OF RAIN TO NORTHEAST FLORIDA...AND ITS
IMPACTS COULD BE SIMILAR. STAY TUNED.




Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11166
First chance I've had to post in some time. Slow blog night/ morning too. What a shame. Boy what a season. From nothing a brewing to this, that, and the other we be a tracking. Sadly I missed quite a bit of it, but life dictates certain sacrifices, eh? I know this season was devastating and deadly to some, and my most heart felt prayers go to them. However, when compared with the threat of what may of been, so far, we've all been relatively pretty lucky. Here's to hoping that the end of season throws no suprises, and that future seasons can behave just as well, or milder. Not to minimize anyone's loss thus far, just saying, we perhaps have dodged a bullet.

Coming in to the season, I thought doom and gloom awaited many. I live in Indiana, so my first concern obviously wasn't me and mine. But after all the record breaking snows, then floods, then those horrible tornado outbreaks, coupled with a major quake or 2, heck I figured in a horrendous cane season. You know, Murphy's law. All these billion dollar disasters, and cane season only footing a small fraction of that? Wow, thank god! Admittedly, I was all doom. Expected many of you to get raked, and hard. Never been happier to be incorrect.

Here's to Phil being the end. But as the Doc's blog entry title elaborates, the threat of a storm or 2 is still there.

Hope they all fizzle...
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24.4n60.1w has been re-evaluated&altered for TS.Phillipe's_5Oct_6amGMT_ATCF
24.3n60.2w, 24.6n60.7w are now the most recent positions
Starting 4Oct_6amGMT and ending 5Oct_6amGMT

The 4 eastern line-segments represent TropicalStormPhillippe's path,
the westernmost line-segment is the straightline projection for 5Oct_6amGMT,
the coastline blob at 39.201n74.651w-26N is the endpoint of the straightline projection
connected to its nearest airport for the 5Oct_12amGMT*mapping
and the island blob at 24.79n76.166w-RSD is the same for the 4Oct_6pmGMT*mapping.

Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the
ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 12amGMT then 6amGMT :
TS.Phillipe's travel-speed was 6.3mph(10.2k/h) on a heading of 303.3degrees(WNW)
(303.75degrees is midway between WNW and NW)
TS.Phillipe was headed toward passage over PawleysIsland,SouthCarolina ~8days4hours from now

Copy&paste 24.79n76.166w-rsd, 39.201n74.651w-26n, 23.7n57.7w-23.8n58.8w, 23.8n58.8w-23.9n59.7w, 23.9n59.7w-24.3n60.2w, 24.3n60.2w-24.6n60.7w, 24.3n60.2w-33.488n79.08w, myr into the GreatCircleMapper for more info

The previous mapping for 5Oct_12amGMT

* The alteration of the endpoint of a TropicalCyclone's previous path also changes its previous travel-speed&heading, and the endpoint of its previous straightline projection...
...but I'm choosing to preserve the historicity of the mappings.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
Quoting ClaySFL:


Comcast?


Worse than that here.... Comcast & Vista
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Quoting will40:


yup its that time of the season it looks like


Wasn't that a song? It's the time of the season?
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
No major systems (currently) in the WPAC?? Shocker.


prob cuz the MJO is moving away to our side of the world
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Quoting will40:


yup its that time of the season it looks like


Wasn't that a song? It's the time of the season?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
368. Skyepony (Mod)
MJO is days away but still threatening to be very interesting..


Shell Oil's Poll isn't coming out in their favor..

Save the Delaware from 20,000 fracking wells.

People got handcuffed & rolled over in Austin, TX at the supposed hearing with the public about the Keystone Pipeline. The same people that want this, will profit from it, wrote the impact statements & completed the final reviews from TX through Canada. Total conflict of interest. Fox left guarding the hen house..
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Quoting mossyhead:
Why do educated people say "mother nature" when there is no such entity. People get upset when you bring God into things, but then turn around and say mother nature.


Don't start something you can't finish.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Something similar to Tammy in 2005 looks likely next week, while I'm in NY.. Figures, I miss out on the fun haha..

Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7390
Quoting WeatherfanPR:
does somebody here received a strange mail on your wunderground account today ?


Likewise. The Goonies?
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Pedring/Nesat damage may be worse than Ondoy



The damage caused by Typhoon Pedring in Luzon may exceed that of Tropical Storm Ondoy two years ago, according to National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) executive director Benito Ramos.

That is a possibility but I hope that will not happen, Ramos said when asked if the extent of the damage from Pedring would exceed P11 billion.

Ramos said the council had yet to reach a full estimate of the damage to farmlands and fisheries as well as roads and bridges in Central Luzon.

It also has yet to report the damage wrought by Typhoon Quiel, which hit the same areas pummeled by Pedring in Luzon.

The NDRRMC said 56 people died during Pedring onslaught, while Quiels death toll reached four.

So far, Pedrings damage to agriculture and infrastructure has been estimated at P8.8 billion. The figure does not yet account for areas in Central Luzon that have remained flooded six days since the typhoon left the country on September 28.

Damage to crops and livestock has reached P7.5 billion, including P6.8 billion in palay losses, while damage to roads, bridges, schools and hospitals has reached P1.25 billion.

NDRRMC records placed Ondoys damage to crops and infrastructure at P10.9 billion. Up to 464 people died in the 2009 calamity, where 37 others went missing

State of calamity

The legislative boards of Pangasinan province and Dagupan City on Monday declared their respective areas in a state of calamity, following the devastation wrought by Typhoons Pedring and Quiel.

Pangasinan has lost more than P700 million worth of crops, roads, bridges and dikes to the two typhoons, which hit Luzon within days last week. Provincial Administrator Rafael Baraan told Pangasinan board members that losses from Pedring alone had reached P583.6 million.

This is the second time this year that Pangasinan was declared in a state of calamity. Only in June, it lost P157 million worth of crops, fishery and infrastructure to Typhoon Falcon.

Defense Secretary Voltaire Gazmin will recommend to President Benigno Aquino III the declaration of a state of calamity in the areas most affected by the two typhoons, Mr. Aquino's spokesperson Edwin Lacierda told reporters Tuesday.

But even without the declaration, Lacierda said, we are pursuing our efforts at providing assistance and relief to affected communities in Bulacan, Pampanga and Tarlac, also in Ifugao and Isabela.

Lacierda said the President also mentioned that he had tasked Cabinet officials to come up with rehabilitation plans.

He said the departments concerned were Social Welfare and Development, Public Works and Highways, Interior and Local Government, Transportation and Communication, and Energy.

What the law says

Under Republic Act No. 10121, or the law strengthening the Philippine disaster risk reduction and management system, the declaration of a state of calamity shall make mandatory the immediate undertaking of these remedial measures:

Imposition of price ceilings on basic necessities and prime commodities by the President upon the recommendation of the implementing agency as provided for under RA 7581, otherwise known as the Price Act, or the National Price Coordinating Council.

Monitoring, prevention and control by the Local Price Coordination Council of overpricing/profiteering and hoarding of prime commodities, medicines and petroleum products.

Programming/reprogramming of funds for the repair and safety upgrading of public infrastructures and facilities.

Grant of no-interest loans by government financing or lending institutions to the most affected section of the population through their cooperatives or peoples organizations.

Only P78M left

Baraan said Pangasinan had set aside P109.54 million in calamity funds for 2011 but that only P78.24 million was left because P31.29 million was spent to fund rehabilitation projects after Falcon.

Mayor Benjamin Lim of Dagupan City, the commercial center of Pangasinan, said he wanted government hydrologists to determine why the city remained flooded even if it had not been raining for the past two days.

Sunday was a generally a fair day in the entire province. There was very little rain and the water receded on Sunday morning, only to rise again at midnight. I cannot understand where the water is coming from, he said.

Silted rivers

Lim said provincial officials had told him that even if the San Roque Dam in San Manuel town released water, Dagupan would not be flooded because the dam water flowed into the Agno River and emptied into the Lingayen Gulf.

According to San Roque Power Corp. officials, water released from the dam does not cause flooding in Dagupan because the city is not traversed by the Agno River but by the Sinocalan-Pantal river system.

Lim said the floods might have been caused by the siltation of rivers, exacerbated by fishpen operations for many years, and the impact of the July 1990 earthquake on the citys land features.

He said the use of big water pumps had caused the ground to sink in sections of the city, and the construction of the De Venecia Highway created an artificial dike that hampered the flow of rainwater into the rivers and fishponds.

If nothing is done, in 10 years, 20 percent of the city will always be under water. As of now, there are villages, like Pantal, which are flooded during high tide, Lim said.

No longer No. 1

Nueva Ecija, which has consistently topped the list of rice-producing provinces, will not be able to fill its granaries this time.

Although Pedring and Quiel did not directly hit the province, they spawned strong winds and dumped heavy rains that triggered flash floods.

The rice plants were hit by the calamity when they were very vulnerable either in their reproductive or maturity stages, Nueva Ecija agriculturist Serafin Santos said in Cabanatuan City.

An assessment made by city and municipal agriculturists in Nueva Ecija showed that the province lost an expected rice harvest of 300,923.35 metric tons (MT). At P12 a kilogram, the loss amounted to P3.63 billion.

When rice plants are battered by strong winds at their reproductive stage, unfilled or half-filled grains will be produced, Santos said.

He said that when soaked while in the maturity stage, the grains would darken.

Records of Nueva Ecijas agriculture office showed that 188,000 hectares were planted to rice this cropping season, but only about 3,000 ha had been harvested before the typhoons struck.

Of the total area planted, 154,526 ha were projected to suffer losses of 30-80 percent.

Pity the farmers

Rice plants in about 104,000 ha were in their reproductive stage when Pedring and Quiel swept the province.

Santos said that before the two typhoons came, farmers and agriculture officials were expecting a bountiful harvest at least 762,400 MT because of the good weather.

Because of the damage, only about 60 percent of that projected harvest can be expected, he said.

We pity the farmers. They will be buried in bigger debts, Santos said.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
Quoting WeatherfanPR:
does somebody here received a strange mail on your wunderground account today ?



yes i got one a lil while ago
Member Since: September 19, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 4229
does somebody here received a strange mail on your wunderground account today ?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
359. Skyepony (Mod)
I've been flipping through different years of that graph I posted. As the surface warms the stratosphere gets colder & it shows, but also standing out is the polar vortex splits the warming has brought on so mid winter there's an added stratosphere warming..example 2008..


We know there is plenty of CFCs up there..UARS(RIP).. This is from 1994,

"UARS has seen high levels of chlorine monoxide in the Northern Hemisphere," says Schoeberl, "but with the warmer temperatures, the high levels do not last as long over the Arctic." Low temperatures and sunlight are key parts of the chemical reaction that allows CFCs to attack the ozone, he explains, making the dramatic ozone loss seen over the South Pole unlikely elsewhere."

Last year something didn't happen that has become common in the last 10 or so years~ a polar vortex split. The added heat has been causing bubbles of heat to move to the North pole in winter & rise through the polar vortex, severely disrupting it. So we had no injection of hot air up high mid to late winter..So when spring dragged on, La Nina passed peak..it was a warm one on the surface, keeping the stratosphere cold. Still doesn't really answer the question of why the polar vortex took so long to be disrupted. Hard to blame La Nina.. 2008 was La Nina, just not quite as strong. Plenty of heat at the surface but somehow stable enough not to burp a vortex wreck, allowing temps in the stratosphere to be come cold enough for the waiting CFCs to do their due.

Disturbing to see the last decade set the out there boundaries on that graph. Temps in the stratosphere seem way less stable then they used to.


Jedkins~ everyone doesn't have to except GHG as a pollution for something to be done.. There are plenty of people out there that don't believe in CFC gases & what havoc something that we just created in 1928 has caused. Yet we stopped putting that up there & I still have air conditioning & can control my hair.

Congrates on your rainfall amounts there..Hasn't rained much east of I-95 in Central FL. Melbourne, FL just had it's 4th driest Sept on record.
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Indonesia- Anak Krakatau, a volcanic island in the Sunda Strait between the islands of Java and Sumatra in Indonesia, erupted on Tuesday sending columns of ash and rock hurtling high into the air. The rise in volcanic and earthquake activity prompted authorities to put in place a 2km exclusion zone for tourists and local fishermen. The Indonesian Volcanology and Geology Disaster Mitigation Centre reported that an estimated 6,000-7,000 volcanic earthquakes were recorded daily during the weekend and on Monday. Daily earthquake totals usually do not exceed 100-200. Seismologists are still attempting to determine the type and scale of the ongoing eruption. -IWO

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TS.Phillipe's_12amGMT_ATCF : Starting 4Oct_12amGMT and ending 5Oct_12amGMT

The 4 eastern line-segments represent TropicalStormPhillippe's path,
the westernmost line-segment is the straightline projection for 5Oct_12amGMT,
the island dot at 24.79n76.166w-RSD is the endpoint of the 4Oct_6pmGMT
straightline projection connected to its nearest airport,
and the ocean-to-island blob at 22.85n74.346w-PWN is the same for the 4Oct_12pmGMT*mapping.

Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the
ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 6pmGMT then 12amGMT :
TS.Phillipe's travel-speed was 7.2mph(11.5k/h) on a heading of 323.8degrees(NW)
TS.Phillipe was headed toward passage over Strathmere,NewJersey ~7days15hours from now
(The straightline passes ~127miles/204kilometres west of Bermuda)

Copy&paste 32.281n67.050w-32.281n64.887w, bda, 22.85n74.346w-pwn, 24.79n76.166w-rsd, 23.8n56.5w-23.7n57.7w, 23.7n57.7w-23.8n58.8w, 23.8n58.8w-23.9n59.7w, 23.9n59.7w-24.4n60.1w, 23.9n59.7w-39.201n74.651w, 26n into the GreatCircleMapper for more info

The previous mapping for 4Oct_6pmGMT

* The alteration of the endpoint of a TropicalCyclone's previous path also changes its previous travel-speed&heading, and the endpoint of its previous straightline projection...
...but I'm choosing to preserve the historicity of the mappings.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
Quoting kmanislander:


Yeah, I came home around 2:45 and the lightning was awesome. The rest of the week should be more of the same. Watch for potential tropical trouble to our South or just over us late this weekend.
It certainly looks like Oct/ Nov is going to be potentially busy in our area of the Carib'. Interesting couple of weeks lie ahead.
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Time for a good book. Will check in periodically over the next few days.

Good night all
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Quoting will40:


18z GFS has it a lil further west and would put us in the east side of storm if it panned out but hopefully it wont




18Z GFS looks like it brings a tropical storm ashore near St. Augustine.
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Quoting superpete:
Evening Kman. I was driving thru S.Sound this afternoon, thought I was heading into a tropical depression LOL.. That was some rain we had today.


Yeah, I came home around 2:45 and the lightning was awesome. The rest of the week should be more of the same. Watch for potential tropical trouble to our South or just over us late this weekend.
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The CMC on Sunday

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Volcano In Siberia Caused The Greatest Mass Extinction Event Of All Time (6/5/2007)
Tags:
fossils, extinction

Scientists from the Universities of Sheffield and Cambridge have discovered that Mother Nature caused a massive ozone depletion event, some 251 million years ago, during the greatest mass extinction event of all time.

The research, which has been published in the June edition of Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A, shows that toxic chemicals released by volcanoes led to a thinning of the ozone layer, millions of years before humans even existed.

New mathematical models developed by the scientists suggest a massive episode of volcanism in Siberia, which coincided with the mass extinction, seriously depleted the ozone shield that protects life on Earth from harmful ultraviolet-B radiation. The eruptions injected halogen gases into the atmosphere, and produced potent ozone-destroying chemicals as the hot ascending lava cooked Siberian rocks and underground salt and minerals.

The calculations also help explain fossil finds reported a few years ago of unusual mutated plant pollen in rocks, which dated back to around the time of the mass extinction, and had previously puzzled scientists. These mutations are consistent with damage to plants by extreme UV-radiation.

Don't imagine it was the first or the last, Hmmm.
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Quoting interstatelover7165:
I Hate My Internet and My Computer.


Comcast?
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Evening Kman. I was driving thru S.Sound this afternoon, thought I was heading into a tropical depression LOL.. That was some rain we had today.
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Off to bed, good night all.
Philippe looks tired...




then whats wake him up
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Euro this Sunday

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Quoting kmanislander:


The season has been tame so far. October and November are still wild cards.

Yeah, although I believe that October won't be a nice month.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

That sounds horrible :\


The season has been tame so far. October and November are still wild cards.
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Quoting kmanislander:


The Caribbean system is supposedly going to be the product of a very strong high just on or off the Eastern seaboard driving Caribbean pressures down. If this verifies then that high would also serve to steer anything coming N out of the Caribbean to the NNW or NW.

That is my thinking for now. Saturday looks like a good timeline for something to possibly spin up just east of the NE coast of Nicaragua/Honduras.

That sounds horrible :\
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

What about the storms that develop in the Caribbean and move NE into the Bahamas because of the troughiness over the Eastern Seaboard?


The Caribbean system is supposedly going to be the product of a very strong high just on or off the Eastern seaboard driving Caribbean pressures down. If this verifies then that high would also serve to steer anything coming N out of the Caribbean to the NNW or NW.

That is my thinking for now. Saturday looks like a good timeline for something to possibly spin up just east of the NE coast of Nicaragua/Honduras.
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Off to bed, good night all.
Philippe looks tired...

Take Philippe to bed with you.

Night.
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Quoting kmanislander:


Euro takes it NNW just West of the W coast of Fla.

The GFS and CMC go up the East coast of Fla.and one of them bends the system back onshore near Daytona. Some of my links are not working now so cannot be more specific but I like the Euro solution due to the big high that is forecast to build just off the SE coast.
Thanks.Very good answer.
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Off to bed, good night all.
Philippe looks tired...
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.