Weakening Ophelia headed towards Newfoundland

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:30 PM GMT on October 02, 2011

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Hurricane Ophelia is steaming north-northeastwards towards Newfoundland, Canada, as a weakening Category 2 hurricane with 110 mph winds. Yesterday, the center of Ophelia passed about 130 miles to the east of Bermuda. The Bermuda airport picked up 0.24" of rain from Ophelia's outer rain bands, and had a peak wind gust of 24 mph. Recent satellite loops show that Ophelia is asymmetric and has lost its eye, thanks to strong upper-level southwesterly winds creating 20 - 30 knots of wind shear. The shear has destroyed a portion of Ophelia's eyewall, according to recent microwave satellite imagery. With the shear expected to increase today and Ophelia about to pass over waters too cold to support a hurricane, the hurricane's eyewall should collapse tonight, resulting in rapid weakening just before the storm arrives in Newfoundland Monday morning. Ophelia will bring a 6-hour period of high winds to Southeast Newfoundland beginning around 4 am local time Monday morning. The 11 am wind probability forecast for Cape Race, Newfoundland gave it a 87% chance of receiving tropical storm force winds, a 15% chance of winds in excess of 57 mph, and no chance of hurricane force winds. The main threat to Southeast Newfoundland from Ophelia will probably be the minor to moderate flooding the storm's 2 - 4 inches of rain will cause.


Figure 1. Radar image of Ophelia as it skirted Bermuda last night, at 7:13 pm AST on October 1, 2011. At the time, Ophelia was a Category 3 hurricane with 120 mph winds. Image credit: Bermuda Weather Service.

Tropical Storm Philippe no threat to land
In the middle Atlantic, Tropical Storm Philippe continues to struggle against dry air and high wind shear. Satellite loops show Philippe is a small system with little heavy thunderstorm activity, with the surface circulation completely exposed to view by wind shear. Wind shear is a very high 30 - 40 knots, thanks to the upper-level outflow from Ophelia. This shear will remain high through Tuesday, but may relax to the moderate range as Philippe turns towards the north on Wednesday. It is unlikely that Philippe will trouble any land areas.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic, none of the computer models is calling for a new tropical storm to form in the coming seven days (though the NOGAPS model shows a strong tropical disturbance forming in the Western Caribbean in about 7 days, something it has erroneously been predicting frequently in the past few weeks.) The large-scale environment over the Atlantic currently favors sinking air, due to the current phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). The MJO is a 30 - 60 day cycle of thunderstorm activity that affects the tropics.


Figure 2. True-color MODIS image of Typhoon Nalgae over the Philippine Islands, taken at 03 UTC Saturday, October 1, 2011. At the time, Nalgae was a Category 3 typhoon with 120 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Storm Nalgae headed for Vietnam
In the Western Pacific, Tropical Storm Nalgae will be skirting China's Hainan Island on Tuesday, and will make final landfall over Vietnam on Wednesday. Nalgae is not expected to regain typhoon strength. Nalgae roared ashore over the Philippines' main island of Luzon as a super typhoon with 150 mph winds at 9 am local time on Saturday morning. The typhoon dumped heavy rains of 4 - 8 inches across a large swath of Northern Luzon, on soils already saturated from the rains of Typhoon Nesat just five days previously. Surprisingly, the death toll from Nalgae's floods is relatively low so far, with three deaths reported. Nesat killed at least 52 people in the Philippines and three in China.

Jeff Masters

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299. Neapolitan
2:27 PM GMT on October 03, 2011
NEW BLOG ENTRY
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13509
298. strong2011storm
2:25 PM GMT on October 03, 2011
here in lisbon, portugal, there are a bit of high clouds my termometer are in the 32.3 degress celsius and rising at 1.1 degrees per hour.
297. strong2011storm
2:19 PM GMT on October 03, 2011
Quoting PlazaRed:

I think it might only be of minor interest to us. I live just south of Seville and we had that Invest in I think February just west of the straits of Gibraltar. It made for some interesting skies for a few days.
One point that we have been talking about in Andalucia is the fact that this is the first year here in our area since about 1995 that we have had no rain after the summer in September and the forecast this year is for very little rain in October, things are very dry and the olives are starting to fall off the trees from extra dry conditions.
The last time the rainy season started very late it was the 14th of November before we got rain and then we had months of it including 10 inches in one morning where I lived.



i live in lisbon and september was a dry month if invest 92 comes to portugal it will be good because the heat is very intense
i hope it will rain in your area soon
296. WxLogic
2:18 PM GMT on October 03, 2011
Quoting hurricane23:


Have doupts whatever developes will get very strong but rather a hybrid/sloppy type system bringing lots of rain to florida later this week into weekend.


That's for sure.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4965
295. aspectre
2:12 PM GMT on October 03, 2011
45.5n56.5w has been re-evaluated&altered for TS.Ophelia's_3Oct_12pmGMT_ATCF
45.4n57.9w, 47.3n54.1w are now the most recent positions
Partial(6hour)mapping starting 3Oct_6amGMT and ending 3Oct_12pmGMT

The long western line-segment represents TropicalStormOphelia's path,
the short easternmost line-segment is the straightline projection for 3Oct_12pmGMT,
the island-to-coastline dumbbell at 47.39n54.25w-NWP is the endpoint of the straightline projection
connected to its nearest airport for the 3Oct_6amGMT*mapping,
and the island-to-island dumbbell at 47.506n57.387w-MQC is the same for the 3Oct_12amGMT*mapping.

Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the
ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 6amGMT then 12pmGMT :
TS.Ophelia's travel-speed was 37.3mph(60.1k/h) on a heading of 52.8degrees(NW)
TS.Ophelia was headed toward reentry into the Atlantic through Bristol'sHope,Newfoundland
after landfall on the southwesternmost shore of LongHarbour,Newfoundland

To see the full 24hour mapping starting 2Oct_12pmGMT and ending 3Oct_12pmGMT (and other info), copy&paste 47.506n57.387w-mqc, 47.39n54.25w-nwp, 37.4n61.5w-39.9n60.7w, 39.9n60.7w-42.5n59.7w, 42.5n59.7w-45.4n57.9w, 45.4n57.9w-47.3n54.1w, 45.4n57.9w-47.382n53.93w, 45.4n57.9w-47.719n53.195w, yyt into the GreatCircleMapper

The previous mapping for 3Oct_12amGMT

* The alteration of the endpoint of a TropicalCyclone's previous path also changes its previous travel-speed&heading, and the endpoint of its previous straightline projection...
...but I'm choosing to preserve the historicity of the mappings.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
294. guygee
2:10 PM GMT on October 03, 2011
As advised by the NWS MLB forecasters, "staying tuned".

Quoting NOAA HPC:
PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
945 AM EDT MON OCT 03 2011

VALID 12Z FRI OCT 07 2011 - 12Z MON OCT 10 2011

[...]
A SMALL BUT POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT CYCLONE IS SHOWN BY THE ECMWF TO DEVELOP ALONG A RESIDUAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AROUND DAYS 5/6 BEFORE DRIFTING OVER FLORIDA. THE OTHER DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE MUCH WEAKER WITH THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF IS SUPPORTED BY ABOUT 10 TO 15 OF ITS OWN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WHICH IS A SIGNIFICANT NUMBER. THUS...THE EVENT IS WORTH MONITORING AND IF IT COMES TO FRUITION COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN/WIND FOR EASTERN FLORIDA...PERHAPS AS A HYBRID BAROCLINIC/BAROTROPIC LOW.

JAMES
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3148
293. PlazaRed
2:08 PM GMT on October 03, 2011
Quoting strong2011storm:
i think that it will be interesting the 92l because i live in portugal

I think it might only be of minor interest to us. I live just south of Seville and we had that Invest in I think February just west of the straits of Gibraltar. It made for some interesting skies for a few days.
One point that we have been talking about in Andalucia is the fact that this is the first year here in our area since about 1995 that we have had no rain after the summer in September and the forecast this year is for very little rain in October, things are very dry and the olives are starting to fall off the trees from extra dry conditions.
The last time the rainy season started very late it was the 14th of November before we got rain and then we had months of it including 10 inches in one morning where I lived.
Member Since: January 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2072
292. strong2011storm
2:04 PM GMT on October 03, 2011
Quoting aspectre:
259 strong2011storm "I think that it will be interesting the 92l because i live in Portugal"

Well, there is HurricaneVince of October2005


i hope invest 92 coul become more powerfull than vince and it lisbon . i am tired of see heat today its 32 degrees celsius . and the heat will go one
291. Jackone
2:00 PM GMT on October 03, 2011
Quoting TropicTraveler:


You have my sympathy. Same problem and the only thing that helps are the exercises from physical therapist - and they only help part way - keeps coming back.


Don't feel alone, I have it on my right side. Pain down my right leg.
Member Since: April 4, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 3
290. JNCali
1:55 PM GMT on October 03, 2011
Morning all!.. Gonna be 30 degrees below average for 3 days starting tomorrow :( I gotta find me some pants and shoes Don't usually have to until December here in SoCal.. Could even get snow on the local mountains.. must be the HAARP!

Double trouble Forecast for the E Pac...

Member Since: September 9, 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 1034
289. TampaTom
1:53 PM GMT on October 03, 2011
Hey, guys, we have an interesting eSeries: Prepare to Survive lined up for this Wednesday at 7 p.m.

I'm going to be interviewing Bryan Koon, Florida's Emergency Management director. Biggest. Guest. So. Far.

http://www.pinellascounty.org/eseries

If you can make it, we'd love to see you there.
Member Since: June 20, 2005 Posts: 22 Comments: 1054
288. hurricane23
1:26 PM GMT on October 03, 2011
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Miami NWS Discussion

EXTENDED FORECAST...
THE LATEST LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE BACK OFF ON DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS THIS
WEEKEND...AND ARE SHOWING THAT THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN
OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS
WEEKEND. SO THE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE METRO AREAS LATE THIS WEEK
INTO THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL STILL REMAIN DRY
FROM ABOUT 850 MBS ON UP. THEREFORE...THE ONLY INCREASE WILL BE
IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE FOR LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS
WEEKEND. SO WILL CONTINUE THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE THIS
WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND FOR MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA EXCEPT FOR THE
EAST COAST METRO AREAS WHERE A LOW END CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE
IN PLACE.



.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13740
287. CitikatzSouthFL
1:25 PM GMT on October 03, 2011
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Good morning.

From Crown Weather about potential development.

Rob Lightbown on October 3, 2011, 5:49 am

It appears that the weather will become quite %u201Cinteresting%u201D along the east coast of Florida from late this week through this upcoming Columbus Day weekend. An area of strong high pressure will anchor itself over the Mid-Atlantic and northeastern United States late this week and continuing into this upcoming weekend. This will lead to a lowering of barometric pressures from the western Caribbean northeastward into the central and northwestern Bahamas. The latest ensemble guidance of the GFS and European models, as well as the Canadian model is showing the potential of a broad area of low pressure to develop in the southwestern Caribbean as early as Thursday or Friday. The European ensemble model seems to hint that this low pressure system may develop into a tropical or sub-tropical storm as it tracks north-northeastward to near the Cayman Islands by about Sunday or next Monday and then near western or central Cuba around next Wednesday. The operational counterpart of the European model forecasts that the development of a tropical or sub-tropical storm may occur further north near Andros and Grand Bahama Island in the northwestern Bahamas on Sunday and then forecasts this potential storm to meander around south Florida right through the middle part of next week.

The GFS operational model develops the potential tropical/sub-tropical storm further offshore around next Monday and forecasts it to strengthen just off of the eastern North Carolina coast towards the end of next week, which then leads to the development of a second tropical/sub-tropical storm around October 16 or 17 which tracks across the northwestern Bahamas and right up the US East Coast as we get into October 18 and 19.

The pressure difference between any low pressure systems developing over the Florida Straits or the western Caribbean and this strong high pressure system over the Mid-Atlantic and northeastern United States will lead to strong easterly winds of 25 to 45 mph and very rough seas and riptides to develop across much of the Florida Peninsula starting late Thursday and continuing through this entire weekend. The strongest winds, heaviest rains and the likelihood of coastal flooding may be centered over central and northern Florida, roughly north of a line from Tampa to Vero Beach on Saturday, Sunday and Monday. These strong winds and heavy rains may then push northward into areas from South and North Carolina northward through the Mid-Atlantic states once we get into next Tuesday and next Wednesday.

So, everyone across the Florida Peninsula should be aware of the potential for several days of heavy rainfall, strong winds and coastal flooding & rip tides starting late Thursday and continuing right through this upcoming Columbus Day weekend.

Link


EEEKKK! Well, some wind and rain is ok. As long as it is not a storm, or at least just a small one. Got a couple of good books and might just make cookies then settle in and enjoy the rainy weather. Thank you very much for sharing this information.
Member Since: August 14, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 454
286. 7544
1:21 PM GMT on October 03, 2011
hi all looks like the gfs and euro and cmc has a strom doing a loop all around so fla at 165 hr hmm its oct could fl be in the bulls eye if anything does form ?

eruo Link
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6767
285. CitikatzSouthFL
1:20 PM GMT on October 03, 2011
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
I will never understand the mentality that sees a season such as this as a "waste" or "boring". I guess you dweebs need death and destruction to get off? We had that with IRENE. Oh, so you need massive death and destruction, multiple times, to float your boat. Get a clue.


Reminder of the "troll" rules...don't quote the trolls, don't respond to the trolls...they are only posting to upset and irritate you with their comments. Please just hide or ignore..but don't tell them you are doing that. Just ignore them. They do eventually go away, but most reincarnate themselves with new names just to start the silliness all over again.

Can't believe we have an invest so far NORTH! Interesting season and very different. Hopefully, October will go by without a serious threat to anyone..U.S., Carribean, etc. We have been very lucky so far...not counting Irene which has been a nightmare for so many folks.

Another reminder for all you downcasters...THE SEASON AIN'T OVER! NOVEMBER 30 IS OFFICIALLY THE END, AND A STORM IN DECEMBER IS NOT UNHEARD OF! (Not shouting..just emphasis only!)

With that said, everyone have a wonderful day.
Member Since: August 14, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 454
284. Neapolitan
1:19 PM GMT on October 03, 2011
Quoting MarcoIslandCat5:
How do the sst's in the Carib & southeast Gom compare to this time last year?

This year's SSTs and TCHP are substantially higher than they were last year on the same date in most areas, partiuclarly in the western Caribbean and the GOM. These first two maps show the situation in 2010, while the last two show the current:

OCTOBER 2, 2010
Hot
Hot

OCTOBER 2, 2011
Hot
Hot
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13509
283. Guysgal
1:08 PM GMT on October 03, 2011
Quoting AussieStorm:
Is there anyone here that is willing to exchange L5/S1 lower back disc, The one I have is degenerating and causing inflammation of nerve which is giving me pain down my left side. I've had 4.5 years of this pain, and I guess I got another 50,60,70 years more.


Not to sound like a nutcase but you need to go on a very low-carb diet asap. There are any number of great books you can read on the benefits of very-low carb in curbing inflammation and actually causing regeneration of bones. Zero-carb is kinda radical but works wonders on diseases of civilization. Good luck
Member Since: May 9, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 218
282. Neapolitan
12:56 PM GMT on October 03, 2011
...and the pressure in 92L is up from 1004:

AL, 92, 2011100312, , BEST, 0, 391N, 276W, 30, 1006, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 160, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13509
281. Neapolitan
12:51 PM GMT on October 03, 2011
Philippe hanging in there at 45 knots:

AL, 17, 2011100312, , BEST, 0, 257N, 552W, 45, 1004, TS, 34, NEQ, 80, 80, 40, 70, 1017, 150, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, PHILIPPE, M,
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13509
280. whepton3
12:49 PM GMT on October 03, 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

The threat for a tropical cyclone developing in the Caribbean over the next two weeks is pretty high, with a moist environment returning, and model support.


That's a pretty straightforward assessment.

The next two weeks could be interesting... this broad low may begin to materialize within a day or two, and it's timing perfectly with what the consensus has been all along about the first two weeks of October.
Member Since: July 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 645
279. Neapolitan
12:46 PM GMT on October 03, 2011
Ophelia down to 50 knots. It won't be long now...

AL, 16, 2011100312, , BEST, 0, 473N, 541W, 50, 994, TS, 50, NEQ, 0, 100, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 75, 0, 0,
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13509
278. aspectre
12:46 PM GMT on October 03, 2011
259 strong2011storm "I think that it will be interesting, the 92L, because I live in Portugal"

Well, there is HurricaneVince of October2005
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
277. AussieStorm
12:41 PM GMT on October 03, 2011
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
I will never understand the mentality that sees a season such as this as a "waste" or "boring". I guess you dweebs need death and destruction to get off? We had that with IRENE. Oh, so you need massive death and destruction, multiple times, to float your boat. Get a clue.

your 1000% right there mate! people are not just content with watching storms grow and traverse the ocean, they want mega death and mega destruction along with it. Sadistic is the world i think you need to use, harsh but fair.
Just look at the WPAC season so far, 360 dead and US$2.6billion in damage. But, the after effects of these typhoons are still ongoing, Central Luzon in the Philippines is still flooded, people there have lived on there house roofs for 5 days now. towns there are without power and drinking water. maybe this person should make a donation like my family and I have to unicef or red cross even to the inquirer newspaper in Manila. My house in Pulilan, Bulacan is surrounded by flood waters, the bore well is flooded, septic tank flooded, the power is off, rice harvest is gone.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
276. GeoffreyWPB
12:40 PM GMT on October 03, 2011
Miami NWS Discussion

EXTENDED FORECAST...
THE LATEST LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE BACK OFF ON DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS THIS
WEEKEND...AND ARE SHOWING THAT THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN
OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS
WEEKEND. SO THE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE METRO AREAS LATE THIS WEEK
INTO THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL STILL REMAIN DRY
FROM ABOUT 850 MBS ON UP. THEREFORE...THE ONLY INCREASE WILL BE
IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE FOR LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS
WEEKEND. SO WILL CONTINUE THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE THIS
WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND FOR MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA EXCEPT FOR THE
EAST COAST METRO AREAS WHERE A LOW END CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE
IN PLACE.

Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11107
275. Neapolitan
12:38 PM GMT on October 03, 2011
For you lovers of winter weather:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
510 AM PDT MON OCT 3 2011

...WINTER-LIKE STORM TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.A STRONG STORM DROPPING OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL BRING
UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER TO THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR.
TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE AS HIGH AS 18 INCHES OVER THE
HIGH COUNTRY...AND UP TO A FOOT DOWN TO THE 7000 FOOT LEVEL.
THE
STORM IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

CAZ096-032015-
/O.CON.KHNX.WS.A.0015.111005T0700Z-111006T0700Z/
SIERRA NEVADA FROM YOSEMITE TO KINGS CANYON-
510 AM PDT MON OCT 3 2011

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING ABOVE 7000 FEET...

A WINTER STORM WATCH ABOVE 7000 FEET REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
NEVADA FROM YOSEMITE TO KINGS CANYON.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS: 6 TO 12 INCHES ABOVE 7000 FEET...AND 12
TO 18 INCHES IN THE HIGH COUNTRY.

* ELEVATION: ABOVE 7000 FEET.

* TIMING: SNOW WILL BEGIN FALLING TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

* LOCATIONS INCLUDE: HUNTINGTON LAKE...TUOLUMNE MEADOWS...TIOGA
PASS...FLORENCE LAKE...EDISON LAKE

* WINDS: WEST WINDS OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY WILL GUST TO 50 MPH.

* IMPACTS: WEST WINDS GUSTING TO 50 MPH OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY
WILL CAUSE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW AND POSSIBLE WHITE
OUT CONDITIONS. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAY CAUSE CLOSURES OF
MOUNTAIN ROADS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW AND STRONG WINDS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. HIKERS...CAMPERS...AND
ALL OUTDOOR ENTHUSIASTS SHOULD PREPARE FOR DANGEROUS WINTER STORM
CONDITIONS. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

- - - - - - - - -

But those of you not quite ready to feel the long and icy grip of winter will appreciate this 6-10 outlook from the CPC:

Uh-oh
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13509
274. AussieStorm
12:33 PM GMT on October 03, 2011
Quoting TropicTraveler:


You have my sympathy. Same problem and the only thing that helps are the exercises from physical therapist - and they only help part way - keeps coming back.

I've been there, done that 4 times now. Physo and exercise physiologist. My specialist said if it didn't respond this time to the exercise program, he will try a radiographer assisted anti-inflammatory injection beside the nerve to reduce the inflammation, but,,,, they don't last long, like a few weeks.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
273. whepton3
12:33 PM GMT on October 03, 2011
Quoting ncstorm:
Good Morning..NOGAPS, Euro and GFS still seeing a potential player near florida



This is interesting... been seeing the development of this Caribbean system for a couple of days now.

I kinda figured that once we got that cool front and a couple of days of cooler dryer weather that would be the harbinger of things getting primed in the Caribbean, and here it comes.

Could be a rainy and possibly windy mess for us here in S. FL.
Member Since: July 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 645
272. AussieStorm
12:31 PM GMT on October 03, 2011
Quoting Ameister12:

So Dominica and Newfoundland aren't land? Welcome to my ignore list.

Ditto to that.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
271. TropicTraveler
12:23 PM GMT on October 03, 2011
Quoting AussieStorm:
Is there anyone here that is willing to exchange L5/S1 lower back disc, The one I have is degenerating and causing inflammation of nerve which is giving me pain down my left side. I've had 4.5 years of this pain, and I guess I got another 50,60,70 years more.


You have my sympathy. Same problem and the only thing that helps are the exercises from physical therapist - and they only help part way - keeps coming back.
Member Since: July 24, 2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 924
270. Neapolitan
12:20 PM GMT on October 03, 2011
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
I will never understand the mentality that sees a season such as this as a "waste" or "boring". I guess you dweebs need death and destruction to get off? We had that with IRENE. Oh, so you need massive death and destruction, multiple times, to float your boat. Get a clue.

I'll actually agree you with you here. At least this one time. ;-)
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13509
269. MarcoIslandCat5
12:17 PM GMT on October 03, 2011
How do the sst's in the Carib & southeast Gom compare to this time last year?
Member Since: October 26, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 52
268. Tropicsweatherpr
12:15 PM GMT on October 03, 2011
Good morning.

From Crown Weather about potential development.

Rob Lightbown on October 3, 2011, 5:49 am

It appears that the weather will become quite %u201Cinteresting%u201D along the east coast of Florida from late this week through this upcoming Columbus Day weekend. An area of strong high pressure will anchor itself over the Mid-Atlantic and northeastern United States late this week and continuing into this upcoming weekend. This will lead to a lowering of barometric pressures from the western Caribbean northeastward into the central and northwestern Bahamas. The latest ensemble guidance of the GFS and European models, as well as the Canadian model is showing the potential of a broad area of low pressure to develop in the southwestern Caribbean as early as Thursday or Friday. The European ensemble model seems to hint that this low pressure system may develop into a tropical or sub-tropical storm as it tracks north-northeastward to near the Cayman Islands by about Sunday or next Monday and then near western or central Cuba around next Wednesday. The operational counterpart of the European model forecasts that the development of a tropical or sub-tropical storm may occur further north near Andros and Grand Bahama Island in the northwestern Bahamas on Sunday and then forecasts this potential storm to meander around south Florida right through the middle part of next week.

The GFS operational model develops the potential tropical/sub-tropical storm further offshore around next Monday and forecasts it to strengthen just off of the eastern North Carolina coast towards the end of next week, which then leads to the development of a second tropical/sub-tropical storm around October 16 or 17 which tracks across the northwestern Bahamas and right up the US East Coast as we get into October 18 and 19.

The pressure difference between any low pressure systems developing over the Florida Straits or the western Caribbean and this strong high pressure system over the Mid-Atlantic and northeastern United States will lead to strong easterly winds of 25 to 45 mph and very rough seas and riptides to develop across much of the Florida Peninsula starting late Thursday and continuing through this entire weekend. The strongest winds, heaviest rains and the likelihood of coastal flooding may be centered over central and northern Florida, roughly north of a line from Tampa to Vero Beach on Saturday, Sunday and Monday. These strong winds and heavy rains may then push northward into areas from South and North Carolina northward through the Mid-Atlantic states once we get into next Tuesday and next Wednesday.

So, everyone across the Florida Peninsula should be aware of the potential for several days of heavy rainfall, strong winds and coastal flooding & rip tides starting late Thursday and continuing right through this upcoming Columbus Day weekend.

Link
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14219
267. PensacolaDoug
12:03 PM GMT on October 03, 2011
Quoting HurricaneFelix:
PcolaDoug...you won't change the mentality of those that think that way.



True 'nuff. It feels good to vent sometimes, however.
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 556
264. PensacolaDoug
11:59 AM GMT on October 03, 2011
I will never understand the mentality that sees a season such as this as a "waste" or "boring". I guess you dweebs need death and destruction to get off? We had that with IRENE. Oh, so you need massive death and destruction, multiple times, to float your boat. Get a clue.
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 556
263. Ameister12
11:56 AM GMT on October 03, 2011
Quoting ITCZmike:
Ophelia = FISH

Philippe = FISH

And now, 92L = FISH

A boring, complete waste of the 2011 hurricane season.

So Dominica and Newfoundland aren't land? Welcome to my ignore list.
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 4948
259. strong2011storm
11:33 AM GMT on October 03, 2011
i think that it will be interesting the 92l because i live in portugal
258. TropicalAnalystwx13
11:30 AM GMT on October 03, 2011
Quoting MarcoIslandCat5:
Morning all! Not liking the look of some of the models,
Reallyy could do without a strong storm at my place on marco just having major work done to the house, What are your thoughts on the Carib producing these next couple weeks? Lovely morning here btw humidity low!

The threat for a tropical cyclone developing in the Caribbean over the next two weeks is pretty high, with a moist environment returning, and model support.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31902
257. MarcoIslandCat5
11:29 AM GMT on October 03, 2011
Morning all! Not liking the look of some of the models,
Reallyy could do without a strong storm at my place on marco just having major work done to the house, What are your thoughts on the Carib producing these next couple weeks? Lovely morning here btw humidity low!
Member Since: October 26, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 52
256. Ameister12
11:24 AM GMT on October 03, 2011
Quoting Autistic2:
Can a tropical system develp as far north as 92L is. Look at the SSTS.

It is rare, but they can.

Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 4948
255. TropicalAnalystwx13
11:24 AM GMT on October 03, 2011
Quoting Autistic2:
Can a tropical system develp as far north as 92L is. Look at the SSTS.

Yes, it has several times. One example is Tropical Storm Grace in 2009.



Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31902
254. TropicalAnalystwx13
11:21 AM GMT on October 03, 2011
Quoting strong2011storm:



yes 45 mph

is this almost a tropical depression?

With a pressure of 1004 millibars, and winds up to 35 mph, yes.

What it needs now is convection, which is what all Extratropical systems have to attain to become tropical systems. A lot of models show the strengthening into a tropical depression and then into a storm, but given 92L's current organization, they may be taking it a little too slow.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31902
253. aislinnpaps
11:21 AM GMT on October 03, 2011
A chilly 50 degrees here. Off to my classroom, my kids await. Everyone have a great Monday!
Member Since: August 22, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3115
252. Autistic2
11:21 AM GMT on October 03, 2011
Can a tropical system develp as far north as 92L is. Look at the SSTS.
Member Since: August 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 460
251. strong2011storm
11:19 AM GMT on October 03, 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

75 km/h = 45 mph



yes 45 mph

is this almost a tropical depression?
250. TropicalAnalystwx13
11:16 AM GMT on October 03, 2011
Quoting strong2011storm:
92L has winds of 35mph and the forecast for azores today is gusts of 75 km/H witch is a good gusts

75 km/h = 45 mph
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31902
249. strong2011storm
11:15 AM GMT on October 03, 2011
92L has winds of 35mph and the forecast for azores today is gusts of 75 km/H witch is a good gusts

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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