Ophelia brushing Bermuda; Super Typhoon Nalgae hits the Philippines

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:50 PM GMT on October 01, 2011

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Hurricane Ophelia is steaming northwards to the east of Bermuda as a powerful Category 3 hurricane with 120 mph winds. Radar out of Bermuda shows that rain bands from Ophelia are beginning to affect the island, though as of noon Saturday, the Bermuda airport has reported just one brief rain shower and a peak wind gust of 21 mph. Recent satellite loops show that Ophelia is well-organized, with a prominent eye, good upper-level outflow, and solid lower-level spiral banding. The models agree that Ophelia will track far enough to the east of Bermuda that the island should see sustained winds below 30 mph, since it will be on the weak (left) side of the storm. The 11 am wind probability forecast from NHC gave Bermuda a 19% chance of receiving tropical storm force winds of 39 mph, and no chance of receiving hurricane force winds. Ophelia's closest approach to the island will be late Saturday night through early Sunday morning. Ophelia is likely to bring high winds and heavy rains to Southeast Newfoundland Monday. The 11 am wind probability forecast for Cape Race, Newfoundland gave it a 47% chance of receiving tropical storm force winds, and a 1% chance of hurricane force winds.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Ophelia.

Tropical Storm Philippe no threat to land
In the middle Atlantic, Tropical Storm Philippe continues to struggle against dry air and high wind shear. Satellite loops show Philippe is a small system with little heavy thunderstorm activity, with the surface circulation partially exposed to view by wind shear. Wind shear is a very high 30 - 40 knots, thanks to the upper-level outflow from Ophelia. This shear will remain high through Tuesday, but may relax to the moderate range as Philippe turns towards the north on Wednesday. It is unlikely that Philippe will trouble any land areas.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic, none of the computer models is calling for a new tropical storm to form in the coming seven days (though the NOGAPS model shows a strong tropical disturbance forming in the Western Caribbean in about 7 days, something it has erroneously been predicting frequently during the past few weeks.) The large-scale environment over the Atlantic currently favors sinking air, due to the current phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). This situation will likely last well into next week, and will discourage formation of new tropical storms. The MJO is a 30 - 60 day cycle of thunderstorm activity that affects the tropics.


Figure 2. True-color MODIS image of Typhoon Nalgae approaching the Philippine Islands, taken at 02:15 UTC Friday, September 30, 2011. At the time, Nalgae was a strengthening Category 1 typhoon with 90 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Super Typhoon Nalgae hits the Philippines
Typhoon Nalgae roared ashore over the Philippines' main island of Luzon as a super typhoon with 150 mph winds at 9 am local time this morning. Nalgae dumped heavy rains of 4 - 8 inches across a large swath of Northern Luzon; 4.81" of rain fell on Viganon the northwest coast of Luzon. The capital of Manila received 0.30" of rain from Nalgae, and experienced wind gusts up to 36 mph. Nalgae is the second major typhoon in a week to hit northern Luzon; on Monday, Typhoon Nesat hit the same region as a Category 3 storm with 120 mph winds, killing at least 52 people. Nalgae's rains fell on soils already saturated from Nesat's heavy rains, and the potential exists for high loss of life due to extreme flooding and mudslides. Nalgae is expected to follow a track almost exactly the same as Nesat's, passing near China's Hainan Island on Tuesday, and then hitting northern Vietnam.

Jeff Masters

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Hurricane Ophelia is developing an intense ring of convection around its eye...Not sure if this is just a brief cycle, or the storm is strengthening.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32861
Quoting JLPR2:
Philippe is surprising me, holding itself together under so much shear.


30-40 knots.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32861
Philippe is surprising me, holding itself together under so much shear.

Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
Quoting washingtonian115:
It's simple.Ophelia isn't affecting land nor is Phillipe(however you spell it;s name).


Philippe: One "l", two "p"'s.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32861
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Why'd everyone get quiet when I came in...? :S
It's simple.Ophelia isn't affecting land nor is Phillipe(however you spell it;s name).
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Remember Ophelia before? Just a swirl with major displaced convection. Take a good look at her now!
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Ophelia has a very nice eye.
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the distubance east of the windwards has good 500mb and 250mb vorticity. all it needs now is something at the surface
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Ophelia:


Philippe:


AOI:


They all look good in their respective categories.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
What an amazing hurricane.

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One thing I've been wondering about, and it kind of fits in with the discussion on page One - earlier this year, we saw a TS all but obliterated by Texas' dry air. Does anyone think that with the drought predicted to last for 9 years, that we can expect a semi-permanent Texas Air Layer (TAL?) that will disrupt storms approaching the western GoM? I understand drought conditions exist there, and that some places have gotten less than 10 inches of rain, making it officially a desert - with the topsoil drying out, and blowing away, is this a possibility?
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H.Ophelia's_6pmGMT_ATCF : Starting 30Sept_6pmGMT and ending 1Oct_6pmGMT

The 4 southern line-segments represent HurricaneOphelia's path,
the northernmost line-segment is the straightline projection for 1Oct_6pmGMT,
the coastline dumbbell at 45.876n59.991w-YPS is the endpoint of the 1Oct_12pmGMT
straightline projection connected to its nearest airport,
and the coastline dumbbell at 44.142n64.499w-YAW is the same for the 1Oct_6amGMT.

Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the
ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 12pmGMT then 6pmGMT :
H.Ophelia's travel-speed was 21.8mph(35.1k/h) on a heading of 2.6degrees(N)
H.Ophelia was headed toward passage over WineHarbour,NovaScotia ~1days21hours from now

Copy&paste 44.142n64.499w-yaw, 45.876n59.991w-yps, 24.1n62.9w-25.5n63.0w, 25.5n63.0w-27.0n63.1w, 27.0n63.1w-28.5n62.9w, 28.5n62.9w-30.4n62.8w, 28.5n62.9w-45.037n61.85w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info

The previous mapping for 1Oct_6pmGMT
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
69. Skyepony (Mod)
Looking at NOAA's Dvorak numbers Ophelia reached Cat 4. Something that also stands out in her record is she's been around for 10 days now..
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Quoting HuracanTaino:
The feature at 10N , 51W has increassed some convection.I don't kmow what is going on,,since it isn't mention on NHC discussion. Why? If you look close, apparently something is going on at the surface...or is it me?


A little disturbance trying to strengthen, but almost nothing at the surface, for the moment.

Actually it's a little more complex than a simple disturbance, there is also a weak ULL in the area.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
Quoting HuracanTaino:
The feature at 10N , 51W has increassed some convection.I don't kmow what is going on,,since it isn't mention on NHC discussion. Why? If you look close, apparently something is going on at the surface...or is it me?

Just ITCZ convection, not going to develop.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32861
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Grrrr....lol.

Well, I answered your question.
Anyway, Philippe is firing some cold cloud tops.
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the area of disturbed weather esat of the windward islands looks more like a pertabation from the itcz
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The feature at 10N , 51W has increassed some convection.I don't kmow what is going on,,since it isn't mention on NHC discussion. Why? If you look close, apparently something is going on at the surface...or is it me?
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monsoon trough??? that far north? it lloks more like the itcz
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

...because you're cursed.
LOL


Grrrr....lol.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32861
Quoting pottery:

A little strange that there is no mention.
Looks like it will all drift North of us AGAIN, and leave us gasping in the Hot Dry weather.

Will see what tomorrow brings...
they said its part of the moonsoon trough on the last discussion
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 5006
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Why'd everyone get quiet when I came in...? :S

...because you're cursed.
LOL
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leaving the blog for you with all your insights
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Beautiful system, probably a little stronger than indicated.



Good afternoon all.
Yes, agree,probably stronger , but without HH recon to corroborate the information , we wont ever know if she ever reach cat. 4 or how close she got .
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Why'd everyone get quiet when I came in...? :S


You'd figure a major hurricane out there would cause some interest, but I guess not.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24579
Why'd everyone get quiet when I came in...? :S
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32861
ASCAT found a few 45 knot wind barbs associated with Philippe, along with one 50 kt. barb.



Good day for ASCAT all together me thinks...



Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32861
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
every model run ive seen shows 1007mb low in the SW carribean. things will be interesing next 10 days. also mjo has dark whites in the carribean. that is just insanely strong mjo pulse

If that were to come to reailty, oh man...In any case, the statement by Dr. Masters saying that MJO won't return until the end of next week at least is very incorrect.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32861
every model run ive seen shows 1007mb low in the SW carribean. things will be interesing next 10 days. also mjo has dark whites in the carribean. that is just insanely strong mjo pulse
Member Since: August 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1728
Hi Pottery, doesn't this happen often in Trinidad, that is with you guys being located so far South, 11 degrees North, as you said? So many of these disturbences cross the islands North of you and even North of Barbadoes.
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Beautiful system, probably a little stronger than indicated.



Good afternoon all.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32861
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Quoting stoormfury:
area east of the windward islands , has some cyclonic turning near 12n 51 w. there is no mention of this feature any where in the tropical discussion. to me it is an area of disturbed weather within a surface trough. please for clarification.

A little strange that there is no mention.
Looks like it will all drift North of us AGAIN, and leave us gasping in the Hot Dry weather.

Will see what tomorrow brings...
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24914
area east of the windward islands , has some cyclonic turning near 12n 51 w. there is no mention of this feature any where in the tropical discussion. to me it is an area of disturbed weather within a surface trough. please for clarification.
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Quoting HuracanTaino:
The point is that computers and technology are possitives tools, but nothing is written on stone, and mother nature has its ways to do as she pleases...

... with a little help from her friends (and enemies, too!)
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24914
Quoting SherwoodSpirit:


I might break something if I tried to limbo, but I'm all for the Rain Dances and Freaking out part! :D
The point is that computers and technology are possitives tools, but nothing is written on stone, and mother nature has its ways to do as she pleases...
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Quoting DDR:

Hey pottery long time no see,just had a 1/2 inch here,don't worry by the looks of it the next 2-3 days we'll have plenty.

Just checked the temp here at home.
34.8C (95F) on the upstairs gallery....

That's too hot.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24914
Hi Hurricanefelix, I heard on the CBS evening news last night that in the Northern Phillipines, that Many people were still trapped on their roofs, waiting for help after the first Typhone went thru, and of course with this second one bearing down on them, they were in extreme danger. Don't know what happened to them. LT
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Quoting SherwoodSpirit:


I might break something if I tried to limbo, but I'm all for the Rain Dances and Freaking out part! :D

heheheh, 2 out of 3 is Great!
I'll pass on the Limbo too.
:)
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24914
the cold front moving south in the gulf will need to be watched as well as the disturbance just east of the windward. closeby conus action should pick up soon
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 5006
I'm currently enjoying our totally non-dramatic weather here in Missouri.
Lower 60s, bright sunshine, comfy dewpoints in the 50s... ahhhh. Fall.

So nice after our extremes from the last three seasons with too much snow, then too many tornadoes, then too much heat.

Yep. This is good. :)
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Quoting DDR:

Hey pottery long time no see,just had a 1/2 inch here,don't worry by the looks of it the next 2-3 days we'll have plenty.

Hi, DDR.
I can see the clouds over you.....
Clear, hot and dry here.
Hearing thunder too....

Yep, looking forward to some rains from those clouds in the east.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24914
Quoting HurricaneFelix:

I know right! The great mystery! But the author of this blog entry will probably have some good insight into it soon enough. He's great.

Trinadad. Okay, I was
close. lol

Hope so.
The dry air was not forecast, as far as I know.
And the dry air tends to increase the pressure gradients too, which works to give the developing systems some problems, by increasing winds around/in front of them.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24914
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Quoting pottery:

That's true as well.

But you know, I think we have reached the point where we put much too much faith in the WeatherGurus at the NHC and stuff.
Would be much better if we all got together and did some RainDances and Limbo and general Freaking out....

That used to work fine, you know.
Now, we expect a Computer to tell the clouds where to go and what to do?
It aint workin' !


I might break something if I tried to limbo, but I'm all for the Rain Dances and Freaking out part! :D
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35. DDR
Quoting pottery:

The East South Carb could use some clouds.....
Point your Machine down here, please.

Hey pottery long time no see,just had a 1/2 inch here,don't worry by the looks of it the next 2-3 days we'll have plenty.
Member Since: April 27, 2007 Posts: 14 Comments: 1730
Quoting HurricaneFelix:

Pot, another thing. It's not like the conditions where you are in Cayman (that's where are you right? i can't remember there or Jamaica) were even that hostile.

You put a wave there, and boom. That can explode in an instant. I love when storms literally explode, but just not near any land you know!

Trinidad, 11n 61w.
Same story though!

And yes, the conditions are pretty good (STILL) all over the place.
But the dry air has been furious!

So, here is The Question...
Where is it coming from?????????
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24914

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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