Ophelia brushing Bermuda; Super Typhoon Nalgae hits the Philippines

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:50 PM GMT on October 01, 2011

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Hurricane Ophelia is steaming northwards to the east of Bermuda as a powerful Category 3 hurricane with 120 mph winds. Radar out of Bermuda shows that rain bands from Ophelia are beginning to affect the island, though as of noon Saturday, the Bermuda airport has reported just one brief rain shower and a peak wind gust of 21 mph. Recent satellite loops show that Ophelia is well-organized, with a prominent eye, good upper-level outflow, and solid lower-level spiral banding. The models agree that Ophelia will track far enough to the east of Bermuda that the island should see sustained winds below 30 mph, since it will be on the weak (left) side of the storm. The 11 am wind probability forecast from NHC gave Bermuda a 19% chance of receiving tropical storm force winds of 39 mph, and no chance of receiving hurricane force winds. Ophelia's closest approach to the island will be late Saturday night through early Sunday morning. Ophelia is likely to bring high winds and heavy rains to Southeast Newfoundland Monday. The 11 am wind probability forecast for Cape Race, Newfoundland gave it a 47% chance of receiving tropical storm force winds, and a 1% chance of hurricane force winds.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Ophelia.

Tropical Storm Philippe no threat to land
In the middle Atlantic, Tropical Storm Philippe continues to struggle against dry air and high wind shear. Satellite loops show Philippe is a small system with little heavy thunderstorm activity, with the surface circulation partially exposed to view by wind shear. Wind shear is a very high 30 - 40 knots, thanks to the upper-level outflow from Ophelia. This shear will remain high through Tuesday, but may relax to the moderate range as Philippe turns towards the north on Wednesday. It is unlikely that Philippe will trouble any land areas.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic, none of the computer models is calling for a new tropical storm to form in the coming seven days (though the NOGAPS model shows a strong tropical disturbance forming in the Western Caribbean in about 7 days, something it has erroneously been predicting frequently during the past few weeks.) The large-scale environment over the Atlantic currently favors sinking air, due to the current phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). This situation will likely last well into next week, and will discourage formation of new tropical storms. The MJO is a 30 - 60 day cycle of thunderstorm activity that affects the tropics.


Figure 2. True-color MODIS image of Typhoon Nalgae approaching the Philippine Islands, taken at 02:15 UTC Friday, September 30, 2011. At the time, Nalgae was a strengthening Category 1 typhoon with 90 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Super Typhoon Nalgae hits the Philippines
Typhoon Nalgae roared ashore over the Philippines' main island of Luzon as a super typhoon with 150 mph winds at 9 am local time this morning. Nalgae dumped heavy rains of 4 - 8 inches across a large swath of Northern Luzon; 4.81" of rain fell on Viganon the northwest coast of Luzon. The capital of Manila received 0.30" of rain from Nalgae, and experienced wind gusts up to 36 mph. Nalgae is the second major typhoon in a week to hit northern Luzon; on Monday, Typhoon Nesat hit the same region as a Category 3 storm with 120 mph winds, killing at least 52 people. Nalgae's rains fell on soils already saturated from Nesat's heavy rains, and the potential exists for high loss of life due to extreme flooding and mudslides. Nalgae is expected to follow a track almost exactly the same as Nesat's, passing near China's Hainan Island on Tuesday, and then hitting northern Vietnam.

Jeff Masters

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How is Phillipe still alive?
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17069
gottaluv weather...especially tropics for these crazy unexpected acts
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HURRICANE OPHELIA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
625 PM AST SAT OCT 01 2011

THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR BERMUDA.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BRENNAN
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32249
It seems to me that this winter will likley be a memorable one for my area.I know It's to far out to forecast but these cold shots have been coming early.We've also seen a wet late summer into early fall.The last time that happened was in 2009.The animals have also been active early.There usually active early when they know a bad winter is suppose to come up.For exsample 2001-2002,2002-2003,and 2009-2010.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17069
Quoting JLPR2:
Wind shear is close or at 35-40knots, yet...


WTH!
Resilience is the word, just like his girlfriend in her beginnings she fought almost died and became a monster.
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16L/H/O/C4
MARK
33.22N/62.25W
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177. JLPR2
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
Could this make a run at 120-130 knts


Looks like there is a good chance it manages that.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8732
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
Could this make a run at 120-130 knts

That may be a tad too high...I say 110-115 knots at peak, or (125-135 mph). I'm leaning towards the higher side at this time.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32249
Have a great evening everyone. Hello to Levi, I learned so much just reading his entries in 5 minutes. Thank You Levi and to other bloggers also.
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Could this make a run at 120-130 knts
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Ophelia is a tight little craft - expect bad weather in the UK in about 7 days' time ...

Brian
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Quoting SPLbeater:
wtf has gotten into Ophelia? its almost like her husband Phillipe didnt make cat 1 status like projected and she havin a hissy fit!! LOL


It's her TOY.
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171. JLPR2


2011OCT01 221500 6.3 937.9/ -2.3 /122.2 (140mph) 6.3 6.4 6.4
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8732
wtf has gotten into Ophelia? its almost like her husband Phillipe didnt make cat 1 status like projected and she havin a hissy fit!! LOL
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SAB/TAFB come out in a little over an hour...That will be the deciding vote.

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.0 6.3 6.3

CIMSS ADT now at Category 4 strength.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32249
168. JLPR2
Wind shear is close or at 35-40knots, yet...


WTH!
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8732
167. JLPR2
Quoting winter123:
Remember how less than a week ago everyone was calling for ophelia to dissipate? I had a feeling it wouldn't!


Definitely surprised me, I mean, I thought it would max out at cat 1. Now look at it, making a run at cat 4.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8732
Pretty eye

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32249
I think Ophelia might be making a run at Cat 4 status, imo , the most impressive looking storm we've had this season!
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7925
The eye temperature continues to warm, and convection continues to develop in the ring of deep convection around the eye.



Link
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32249
Remember how less than a week ago everyone was calling for ophelia to dissipate? I had a feeling it wouldn't!
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Quoting PlazaRed:

Thanks for that Chart Levi,
2 things that wonder me from it are 1, does that mean in your opinion that any storms or hurricanes in the western Atlantic at this time can be directed into the Caribbean along the southern edge of this projected high and 2, will this high cause a very large amount of warm moist air to move northwards out of the GOM into the US and eventually Canada?
Surly the implications of this must be big storms over the central mid west areas of the US?


1.) No, because we're no longer that concerned with storms developing out in the middle of the Atlantic. The focus of this pattern is going to be the Caribbean, eastern gulf, and Bahamas areas for development. The high there helps incubate such development.

2.) Sure some moisture will probably eventually get into the plains, and a severe weather event may occur, but I doubt it will be that long-lived or be able to progress very far eastward, because the trough encroaching on Texas is likely to lift out instead of digging deep through the entire southeastern United States.
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Quoting JLPR2:


Cat 4! Cat 4!
:)

It sure looks like one.



Amen!

Yup.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32249
160. JLPR2
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I hope it is declared a Category 4.

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.9 6.2 6.2

2011OCT01 214500 6.2 940.5/ -2.3 /119.8 6.2 6.5 6.5 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 14.44 -66.94 EYE 25 IR 31.82 62.28 COMBO


Cat 4! Cat 4!
:)

It sure looks like one.

Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
A miracle: NO RAIN TODAY!!


Amen!
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8732
Quoting Levi32:
A massive high centered over Virginia in 120-144 hours means the Caribbean needs to be watched closely starting October 7th. It's not that far away now.


Thanks for that Chart Levi,
2 things that wonder me from it are 1, does that mean in your opinion that any storms or hurricanes in the western Atlantic at this time can be directed into the Caribbean along the southern edge of this projected high and 2, will this high cause a very large amount of warm moist air to move northwards out of the GOM into the US and eventually Canada?
Surly the implications of this must be big storms over the central mid west areas of the US?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JLPR2:
Eye keeps warming and getting better defined.

I hope it is declared a Category 4.

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.9 6.2 6.2

2011OCT01 214500 6.2 940.5/ -2.3 /119.8 6.2 6.5 6.5 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 14.44 -66.94 EYE 25 IR 31.82 62.28 COMBO
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32249
A miracle: NO RAIN TODAY!!
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5690
156. JLPR2
Eye keeps warming and getting better defined.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8732
I tried to catch fog this morning, but I mist it.

lol ;)
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32249
Wow blog isvery quite for an almost cat 4 in the Atl.
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Quoting wunderweatherman123:
alright thanx and a good example of that is wilma when you see a storm stall in the carribean and then get launched NE into florida. those are still posiblities. also can you tell me "how" majors from the carribean maintain cat 3 or higher status until landfall in florida because in many of these situation they have the subtropical jet against them


The jet is not always in the way, and truly deep tropical systems out of the Caribbean monsoonal circulation like Wilma can fend off a lot of shear before they succumb to it.
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A more complete picture of October major hurricanes:

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


See Levi, this is what happens when you leave the blog for a while...You get bombarded with questions :P
when levi is here the blog is more interesting :P
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Quoting Levi32:


Wind shear naturally increases in the Gulf of Mexico during October, but there have been numerous major hurricane strikes on the U.S. during that month, mostly on Florida.
alright thanx and a good example of that is wilma when you see a storm stall in the carribean and then get launched NE into florida. those are still posiblities. also can you tell me "how" majors from the carribean maintain cat 3 or higher status until landfall in florida because in many of these situation they have the subtropical jet against them
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October is not a cozy month. These are all major hurricanes that formed in October and blasted Florida and areas eastward.

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See Levi, this is what happens when you leave the blog for a while...You get bombarded with questions :P
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32249
Quoting wunderweatherman123:

my bad. also what is causing all the shear in the gulf now and can we discount a major affecting the US or is early to mid october still a possibility for this to occur?


Wind shear naturally increases in the Gulf of Mexico during October, but there have been numerous major hurricane strikes on the U.S. during that month, mostly on Florida.
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Quoting Levi32:


I didn't say that.





I don't recall you asking me before, but sorry if I missed it. Upper-level conditions shouldn't be that bad in the heart of the Caribbean, especially as the MJO gradually returns. Things become more questionable as we head northward, as wind shear may or may not become an issue, depending on how the subtropical jet is behaving at the time, and depending on how convectively beefy of a development we might get.

my bad. also what is causing all the shear in the gulf now and can we discount a major affecting the US or is early to mid october still a possibility for this to occur?
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Quoting Levi32:


I didn't say that.





I don't recall you asking me before, but sorry if I missed it. Upper-level conditions shouldn't be that bad in the heart of the Caribbean, especially as the MJO gradually returns. Things become more questionable as we head northward, as wind shear may or may not become an issue, depending on how the subtropical jet is behaving at the time, and depending on how beefy of a development we might get.

Thanks.

Its been over the past few weeks that I've asked.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32249
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
i see you said bahamas/cuba but not florida. will florida be protected? :)


I didn't say that.



Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I've asked two times, and this will make three, lol. What about intensity and the conditions available in the Western Caribbean in 6-10 days from now.


I don't recall you asking me before, but sorry if I missed it. Upper-level conditions shouldn't be that bad in the heart of the Caribbean, especially as the MJO gradually returns. Things become more questionable as we head northward, as wind shear may or may not become an issue, depending on how the subtropical jet is behaving at the time, and depending on how convectively beefy of a development we might get.
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143. Gorty
Now people knows why two years are not the same... 2011 was similar to 2005 for activity but the steering pattern has been quite different and the intensity of cyclones was also different.
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Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 5025
Quoting Levi32:


It would depend on where a hypothetical storm forms. A formation out of the monsoon trough in the southern Caribbean would have a better chance to go west into central America. The most likely path choice for a development within the 6-10 day window looks like it will be north to northeast towards Cuba and the Bahamas. Again though, that will depend on when and where we get development, if we do get it.

I've asked two times, and this will make three, lol. What about intensity and the conditions available in the Western Caribbean in 6-10 days from now.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32249
Quoting Levi32:


It would depend on where a hypothetical storm forms. A formation out of the monsoon trough in the southern Caribbean would have a better chance to go west into central America. The most likely path choice for a development within the 6-10 day window looks like it will be north to northeast towards Cuba and the Bahamas. Again though, that will depend on when and where we get development, if we do get it.
i see you said bahamas/cuba but not florida. will florida be protected? :)
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Quoting JLPR2:


Not much there yet, no surface reflection with it so nothing going on yet. Probably being enhanced by the ULL close by. Need to watch it since convection is persisting and see if it develops some 850mb vort, which would indicate something trying to form closer to the surface.

Interesting, thank you.
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138. Gorty
Wow, Sept. alone had 5 named storms! This year was very active!
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2011OCT01 211500 6.1 943.2/ -2.2 /117.4 6.1 6.5 6.5 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 13.94 -67.18 EYE 26 IR 31.54 62.41 COMBO


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.8 6.2 6.2
01/1745 UTC 30.3N 62.7W T5.5/5.5 OPHELIA -- Atlantic

Final CIMSS T# is at 5.8 for Ophelia, or 110 knots. However, Adjusted and Raw T# are at 6.2, or Category 4 status. With the other ADT at 6.1, and the Final CIMSS ADT T# rising, we may see C4 Hurricane Ophelia soon. The latest SAB/TAFB numbers come out at 7:45 PM EDT...Those will be the deciding numbers.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32249
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Levi, did you see how strong the GFS brings the MJO back in mid-October?


Yes, it's finally on the move. This is why the Caribbean potential is now weeks later than I thought it would be.

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Quoting RussianWinter:
What would the steering currents for that would be like? A Yucatan westward moving storm?


It would depend on where a hypothetical storm forms. A formation out of the monsoon trough in the southern Caribbean would have a better chance to go west into central America. The most likely path choice for a development within the 6-10 day window looks like it will be north to northeast towards Cuba and the Bahamas. Again though, that will depend on when and where we get development, if we do get it.
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Quoting Levi32:
A massive high centered over Virginia in 120-144 hours means the Caribbean needs to be watched closely starting October 7th. It's not that far away now.


Levi, did you see how strong the GFS brings the MJO back in mid-October?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32249
Quoting Levi32:


CMC, but it matters not because the high is there on every single model.
What would the steering currents for that would be like? A Yucatan westward moving storm?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.