Ophelia brushing Bermuda; Super Typhoon Nalgae hits the Philippines

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:50 PM GMT on October 01, 2011

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Hurricane Ophelia is steaming northwards to the east of Bermuda as a powerful Category 3 hurricane with 120 mph winds. Radar out of Bermuda shows that rain bands from Ophelia are beginning to affect the island, though as of noon Saturday, the Bermuda airport has reported just one brief rain shower and a peak wind gust of 21 mph. Recent satellite loops show that Ophelia is well-organized, with a prominent eye, good upper-level outflow, and solid lower-level spiral banding. The models agree that Ophelia will track far enough to the east of Bermuda that the island should see sustained winds below 30 mph, since it will be on the weak (left) side of the storm. The 11 am wind probability forecast from NHC gave Bermuda a 19% chance of receiving tropical storm force winds of 39 mph, and no chance of receiving hurricane force winds. Ophelia's closest approach to the island will be late Saturday night through early Sunday morning. Ophelia is likely to bring high winds and heavy rains to Southeast Newfoundland Monday. The 11 am wind probability forecast for Cape Race, Newfoundland gave it a 47% chance of receiving tropical storm force winds, and a 1% chance of hurricane force winds.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Ophelia.

Tropical Storm Philippe no threat to land
In the middle Atlantic, Tropical Storm Philippe continues to struggle against dry air and high wind shear. Satellite loops show Philippe is a small system with little heavy thunderstorm activity, with the surface circulation partially exposed to view by wind shear. Wind shear is a very high 30 - 40 knots, thanks to the upper-level outflow from Ophelia. This shear will remain high through Tuesday, but may relax to the moderate range as Philippe turns towards the north on Wednesday. It is unlikely that Philippe will trouble any land areas.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic, none of the computer models is calling for a new tropical storm to form in the coming seven days (though the NOGAPS model shows a strong tropical disturbance forming in the Western Caribbean in about 7 days, something it has erroneously been predicting frequently during the past few weeks.) The large-scale environment over the Atlantic currently favors sinking air, due to the current phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). This situation will likely last well into next week, and will discourage formation of new tropical storms. The MJO is a 30 - 60 day cycle of thunderstorm activity that affects the tropics.


Figure 2. True-color MODIS image of Typhoon Nalgae approaching the Philippine Islands, taken at 02:15 UTC Friday, September 30, 2011. At the time, Nalgae was a strengthening Category 1 typhoon with 90 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Super Typhoon Nalgae hits the Philippines
Typhoon Nalgae roared ashore over the Philippines' main island of Luzon as a super typhoon with 150 mph winds at 9 am local time this morning. Nalgae dumped heavy rains of 4 - 8 inches across a large swath of Northern Luzon; 4.81" of rain fell on Viganon the northwest coast of Luzon. The capital of Manila received 0.30" of rain from Nalgae, and experienced wind gusts up to 36 mph. Nalgae is the second major typhoon in a week to hit northern Luzon; on Monday, Typhoon Nesat hit the same region as a Category 3 storm with 120 mph winds, killing at least 52 people. Nalgae's rains fell on soils already saturated from Nesat's heavy rains, and the potential exists for high loss of life due to extreme flooding and mudslides. Nalgae is expected to follow a track almost exactly the same as Nesat's, passing near China's Hainan Island on Tuesday, and then hitting northern Vietnam.

Jeff Masters

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233. Skyepony (Mod)
Ophelia intensifying again..
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 226 Comments: 39441
Quoting JLPR2:


It's 2mb away from being the strongest storm of 2011.


I want that too
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Borderline strongest storm of the season.

Irene: 942mb, 120mph
Katia: 946mb, 135mph
Ophelia: 944mb, 135mph
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
BULLETIN
HURRICANE OPHELIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 37A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
800 PM AST SAT OCT 01 2011

...OPHELIA INTENSIFIES INTO A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE AS IT PASSES
EAST OF BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.5N 62.4W
ABOUT 140 MI...220 KM E OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...944 MB...27.88 INCHES
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229. JLPR2
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
8:00 PM AST Sat Oct 1
Location: 32.5°N 62.4°W
Max sustained: 135 mph
Moving: N at 26 mph
Min pressure: 944 mb

OPHELIA INTENSIFIES INTO A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE AS IT PASSES EAST OF BERMUDA...


It's 2mb away from being the strongest storm of 2011.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
8:00 PM AST Sat Oct 1
Location: 32.5°N 62.4°W
Max sustained: 135 mph
Moving: N at 26 mph
Min pressure: 944 mb

OPHELIA INTENSIFIES INTO A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE AS IT PASSES EAST OF BERMUDA...
:) I say she peaks at 160mph. Just cause I want her to.
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we have a cat 4 now
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Ophelia is boring everyone except fish.
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Sorry guys, I should've asked the poll earlier. :P
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32859
BULLETIN
HURRICANE OPHELIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 37A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
800 PM AST SAT OCT 01 2011

...OPHELIA INTENSIFIES INTO A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE AS IT PASSES
EAST OF BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.5N 62.4W
ABOUT 140 MI...220 KM E OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...944 MB...27.88 INCHES
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32859
8:00 PM AST Sat Oct 1
Location: 32.5°N 62.4°W
Max sustained: 135 mph
Moving: N at 26 mph
Min pressure: 944 mb

OPHELIA INTENSIFIES INTO A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE AS IT PASSES EAST OF BERMUDA...
Member Since: August 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1728
Q: What will Ophelia's intensity be at 8PM?

A. 115 mph
B. 120 mph
C. 125 mph
D. 135 mph
E. Higher or lower than indicated here.

I want to say 135 mph.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32859
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Yes I do, it wont affect anybody, u need to calm down some.


Im hoping for that too. Waiting since 2007
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I would love to see a 8.0 hurricane in the central Atlantic heading north
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

OH MY GOD.
DUH DUH DUHH
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

OH MY GOD.
Hurricane Ophelia is Now Mega-Hurricane Chuckia Norris
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Quoting prcane4you:
Still talking about Ophelia.Bye bye Ophelia.CV season is over.Now what.Boring time is here wait to next year.


October is just as bad as August. There is more home grown mischief. It's just as active if not just a little less. But Mitch, Wilma, Omar, all of these devastating hurricanes formed in the month of October.
Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 51 Comments: 1731
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:


Yeah heres the thing we are sitting right here:

2011OCT01 231500 6.4 935.1/ -2.5 /124.6 6.4 6.6 6.6 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 14.14 -68.79 EYE 24 IR 32.37 62.20 COMBO

at 6.4 which is only 0.1 from your 6.5 but the white is maybe 1 mile wide on the NE side but what I was saying is if the thickest part of the eye expands around the eye we will likely see at least 6.8 but maybe as high as 7.0

OH MY GOD.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:

A CAT 5? is that what you want?
Yes I do, it wont affect anybody, u need to calm down some.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Until they don't become phenomena anymore. ;)


Hmmm. . .I wonder when that'll be. ;)
Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 51 Comments: 1731
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32859
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
RAW is getting closer and closert to 7.0


:O Ophelia is one of those examples where it won't affect anyone at peak strength and we can watch this amazing system at it's peak with all the satellites :)
Newfoundland may get scraped, be prepared, but I don't think it will be that big of a deal. Yet... I've been through Irene at peak strength, so this is an awesome site to see! :)
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Quoting hurricanehunter27:
RAW is getting closer and closert to 7.0

A CAT 5? is that what you want?
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Probably not, there are other things that determine it like eye, banding, etc...7.0 is Category 5 hurricane. If it does wrap around the eye, we may see a jump to 6.5-6.5 though.

6.3 now.


Yeah heres the thing we are sitting right here:

2011OCT01 231500 6.4 935.1/ -2.5 /124.6 6.4 6.6 6.6 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 14.14 -68.79 EYE 24 IR 32.37 62.20 COMBO

at 6.4 which is only 0.1 from your 6.5 but the white is maybe 1 mile wide on the NE side but what I was saying is if the thickest part of the eye expands around the eye we will likely see at least 6.8 but maybe as high as 7.0
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Quoting JLPR2:
2011OCT01 231500 6.4 935.1/ -2.5 /124.6 6.4 6.6 6.6

6.4 - 143mph, 935.1mb
RAW is getting closer and closert to 7.0
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207. JLPR2
2011OCT01 231500 6.4 935.1/ -2.5 /124.6 6.4 6.6 6.6

6.4 - 143mph, 935.1mb
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t6/flash-avn.html
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Quoting cyclonekid:


Ophelia is a great example of how storms struggle, but yet overcome the biggest obstacles. Hurricanes are still a mystery. Yet we think we know so much about them. We know A LOT about them, yes. However they are phenomena and they shall remain phenomena. :)

Until they don't become phenomena anymore. ;)
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32859
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
just hypothetically speaking... would T 7.0 be if that thick band of white can wrap around the eye?
That was kinda what I was thinking if it got very symetrical.
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Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
just hypothetically speaking... would T 7.0 be if that thick band of white can wrap around the eye?

Probably not, there are other things that determine it like eye, banding, etc...7.0 is Category 5 hurricane. If it does wrap around the eye, we may see a jump to 6.5-6.5 though.

6.3 now.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32859
Looks like a cut-off low will form well east of Florida by Thursday-Sunday connected with a back-door cold front expected to move through by then. Wonder if that'll form into anything or not?

Originally models had it forming over or just west of Florida. But now models have trended much more eastward.
Member Since: May 26, 2007 Posts: 47 Comments: 1393
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Ophelia is almost there....She is likely a Category 4 hurricane now. Deep convection wraps around 99% of the entire eye.



Ophelia is a great example of how storms struggle, but yet overcome the biggest obstacles. Hurricanes are still a mystery. Yet we think we know so much about them. We know A LOT about them, yes. However they are phenomena and they shall remain phenomena. :)
Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 51 Comments: 1731
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Ophelia is almost there....She is likely a Category 4 hurricane now. Deep convection wraps around 99% of the entire eye.

notice the sw side has the stronger convection yet there is less shear to her north east :P
Member Since: August 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1728
just hypothetically speaking... would T 7.0 be if that thick band of white can wrap around the eye?
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Ophelia is almost there....She is likely a Category 4 hurricane now. Deep convection wraps around 99% of the entire eye.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32859
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Whoa...lets not get ahead of ourselves now.
that has never happened where the trough is literally right next to a hurricane for it to become a cat 5 because SW shear would prohibit it
Member Since: August 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1728
I am beginning to think 125 knts will be peak intensity sometime overnight tonight... already ADT shows close to 120 knts (we may see it jump to 115 knts at 8 PM and 125 at 11 PM)
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195. Skyepony (Mod)
Here is a recently released, indepth precipitation analysis for Lee.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 226 Comments: 39441
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Whoa...lets not get ahead of ourselves now.
Well who ever though she would get to cat3, that was a shocker in itself. Yah not likly but I can hope.
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Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Could make a run for cat 5 if the deep convection is able to completly circle her eye.


Whoa...lets not get ahead of ourselves now.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32859
Quoting biowizard:
Ophelia is a tight little craft - expect bad weather in the UK in about 7 days' time ...

Brian

We always expect bad weather in the UK!
If we had had an history of good weather we probably would never in times gone by have forged an empire on which the sun never set.After all we could just have sat in the sun and waited for the industrial revolution to be invented by someone else.
Thanks for that one Brian.
Also thanks to Levi for your answers to my previous queries.
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191. Skyepony (Mod)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162011 OPHELIA 10/01/11 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 226 Comments: 39441
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Ophelia continues to organize, with deep convection now taking hostage half of the eyewall..

Could make a run for cat 5 if the deep convection is able to completly circle her eye.
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Quoting cyclonekid:



Yeah, but strangely enough, the MvTavish numbers aren't off the chart like usual.

Somebody might want to call Dr. Bongevine.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32859
Ophelia continues to organize, with deep convection now taking hostage half of the eyewall..

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32859


Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 51 Comments: 1731
I got bored so I searched LOL on my iPad's Google Earth, and apparently "Lol" is a place in South Sudan...
Anyways, Ophelia:
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
Quoting washingtonian115:
How is Phillipe still alive?

No...clue...
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32859
How is Phillipe still alive?
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17831

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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