Ophelia brushing Bermuda; Super Typhoon Nalgae hits the Philippines

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:50 PM GMT on October 01, 2011

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Hurricane Ophelia is steaming northwards to the east of Bermuda as a powerful Category 3 hurricane with 120 mph winds. Radar out of Bermuda shows that rain bands from Ophelia are beginning to affect the island, though as of noon Saturday, the Bermuda airport has reported just one brief rain shower and a peak wind gust of 21 mph. Recent satellite loops show that Ophelia is well-organized, with a prominent eye, good upper-level outflow, and solid lower-level spiral banding. The models agree that Ophelia will track far enough to the east of Bermuda that the island should see sustained winds below 30 mph, since it will be on the weak (left) side of the storm. The 11 am wind probability forecast from NHC gave Bermuda a 19% chance of receiving tropical storm force winds of 39 mph, and no chance of receiving hurricane force winds. Ophelia's closest approach to the island will be late Saturday night through early Sunday morning. Ophelia is likely to bring high winds and heavy rains to Southeast Newfoundland Monday. The 11 am wind probability forecast for Cape Race, Newfoundland gave it a 47% chance of receiving tropical storm force winds, and a 1% chance of hurricane force winds.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Ophelia.

Tropical Storm Philippe no threat to land
In the middle Atlantic, Tropical Storm Philippe continues to struggle against dry air and high wind shear. Satellite loops show Philippe is a small system with little heavy thunderstorm activity, with the surface circulation partially exposed to view by wind shear. Wind shear is a very high 30 - 40 knots, thanks to the upper-level outflow from Ophelia. This shear will remain high through Tuesday, but may relax to the moderate range as Philippe turns towards the north on Wednesday. It is unlikely that Philippe will trouble any land areas.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic, none of the computer models is calling for a new tropical storm to form in the coming seven days (though the NOGAPS model shows a strong tropical disturbance forming in the Western Caribbean in about 7 days, something it has erroneously been predicting frequently during the past few weeks.) The large-scale environment over the Atlantic currently favors sinking air, due to the current phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). This situation will likely last well into next week, and will discourage formation of new tropical storms. The MJO is a 30 - 60 day cycle of thunderstorm activity that affects the tropics.


Figure 2. True-color MODIS image of Typhoon Nalgae approaching the Philippine Islands, taken at 02:15 UTC Friday, September 30, 2011. At the time, Nalgae was a strengthening Category 1 typhoon with 90 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Super Typhoon Nalgae hits the Philippines
Typhoon Nalgae roared ashore over the Philippines' main island of Luzon as a super typhoon with 150 mph winds at 9 am local time this morning. Nalgae dumped heavy rains of 4 - 8 inches across a large swath of Northern Luzon; 4.81" of rain fell on Viganon the northwest coast of Luzon. The capital of Manila received 0.30" of rain from Nalgae, and experienced wind gusts up to 36 mph. Nalgae is the second major typhoon in a week to hit northern Luzon; on Monday, Typhoon Nesat hit the same region as a Category 3 storm with 120 mph winds, killing at least 52 people. Nalgae's rains fell on soils already saturated from Nesat's heavy rains, and the potential exists for high loss of life due to extreme flooding and mudslides. Nalgae is expected to follow a track almost exactly the same as Nesat's, passing near China's Hainan Island on Tuesday, and then hitting northern Vietnam.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting wunderweatherman123:
guys 11pm 135 140 125 145?

I'm going with 140Mph, I wish they had a recon out there it would be nice to get some data for 2011's Strongest Atlantic storm to date. Too bad it isn't daylight, the visible sat on her would be beautiful i bet (:
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FXCN31 CWHX 012348 CCA
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.00 PM ADT
SATURDAY 01 OCTOBER 2011.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.00 AM ADT

**CORRECTED FOR INITIAL INTENSITY**

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 9.00 PM ADT , HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
32.8 N AND LONGITUDE 62.1 W , ABOUT 130 NAUTICAL MILES OR 245
KM EAST NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA . MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 115 KNOTS ( 213 KM/H ) AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 944
MB. OPHELIA IS MOVING NORTH AT 24 KNOTS ( 45 KM/H ).

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
ADT MB KTS KMH
OCT 01 9.00 PM 32.8N 62.1W 944 115 194
OCT 02 3.00 AM 35.5N 61.7W 951 100 176
OCT 02 9.00 AM 37.8N 61.0W 961 90 167
OCT 02 3.00 PM 40.2N 59.9W 963 85 157
OCT 02 9.00 PM 42.6N 58.5W 970 75 139
OCT 03 3.00 AM 44.6N 55.7W 977 70 130
OCT 03 9.00 AM 46.6N 52.6W 983 60 111 POST-TROPICAL
OCT 03 3.00 PM 48.2N 48.2W 992 55 102 POST-TROPICAL
OCT 03 9.00 PM 49.8N 43.8W 994 50 93 POST-TROPICAL

3. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION

A. ANALYSIS

OPHELIA'S APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE REMAINS IMPRESSIVE WITH A SMALL AND
WELL-DEFINED EYE, AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE UPPED ITS
INTENSITY TO CATEGORY 4. THE WIND CIRCULATION IS VERY COMPACT BASED
ON SCATTEROMETRY DATA. THE HURRICANE IS MOVING OVER A LARGE WARM
WATER TEMPERATURE ANOMALY SO THE INTENSITY WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN
ITSELF FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE FRONT TO THE WEST IS QUICKLY
APPROACHING OPHELIA AND BRINGING ABOUT THE NORTHWARD ACELLERATION
WE'VE SEEN TODAY.

B. PROGNOSTIC

THE GEM REG AND GLB MODELS ARE BEING DISCOUNTED IN OUR EVALUATION
OWING TO A POOR ANALYSIS OF THE INTENSITY AND LOCATION OF THE
COMPACT HURRICANE AT TIME-ZERO (12Z). THE HWRF AND GFDL MODELS OFFER
A MUCH MORE REALISTIC-LOOKING DEPICTION OF THE WIND AND PRESSURE
FIELDS. GFS AND NAM ARE REASONABLE FOR THE RAINFALL PREDICTIONS - AT
LEAST IN TERMS OF LOCATION OF THE AXES ASSOCIATED WITH OPHELIA AND
A LONG FRONTAL ZONE TO THE WEST OF IT. WAVE GUIDANCE IS BEING TAKEN
FROM THE GFDL-DRIVEN WAVEWATCH-3 MODEL AND CHC'S TRAPPED-FETCH WAVE
MODEL.

DETAILS FROM THE VARIOUS MODELS APPEARS IN THE GENERAL INFORMATION
STATEMENT UNDER THE WOCN31 CWHX HEADER.

NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK WITH THIS PACKAGE, BUT HAVE UPDATED
THE INTENSITY SOMEWHAT AS IT CROSSES CANADIAN WATERS. TRANSITION TO
POST TROPICAL IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BY THE TIME IT REACHES OR PASSES
CLOSEST TO THE AVALON PENINSULA (NEWFOUNDLAND).

C. PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)

TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE
NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW
02/00Z 150 160 80 90 45 45 40 35 20 25 20 20
02/06Z 185 200 85 90 45 45 40 40 20 25 20 20
02/12Z 200 205 90 90 50 50 35 30 20 25 20 10
02/18Z 205 225 90 90 60 60 50 30 20 25 10 10
03/00Z 210 240 90 90 70 70 50 20 20 25 10 0
03/06Z 190 240 90 80 75 70 45 20 15 20 0 0
03/12Z 180 245 105 70 60 60 40 20 0 0 0 0
03/18Z 170 245 120 90 50 65 35 15 0 0 0 0
04/00Z 160 245 170 120 45 55 35 15 0 0 0 0

END/FOGARTY/BORGEL

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Quoting Hurricanes4life:
Does anyone know what the chance of a EWRC is in the next 24 hours for Ophelia?

Not really thought it about...Although, Ophelia should begin to weaken sometime tomorrow.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32689
280. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting Hurricanes4life:


That would be bad, I haven't seen any models saying 90kts. The strongest ive seen is the GFDL about 50 to 55 kts by the time it gets here. Although all those models ended up being underdone in strength right now.


Here's more models, including the ones I was referencing. It's about 3 dots out to landfall. The underdone factor has me leaning toward the stronger ones. The front was really cold too so she should get plenty of baroclinic support as she goes EXTRP as well.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 208 Comments: 39049
Does anyone know what the chance of a EWRC is in the next 24 hours for Ophelia?
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Quoting wunderweatherman123:
guys 11pm 135 140 125 145?

120 knots (140 mph).
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32689
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Yeah.

Doesn't look like a miss this time. Poor Newfoundland...has gotten hit several times this season.


Haha yeah, we are like the Canadian version of Florida in 04 this year :P
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
guys 11pm 135 140 125 145?
Member Since: August 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1726
It feelslike I live in the North West right now rather than the Mid-Atlantic.It's cold outside and rainy.The events of bad weather/natural disasters started from late August and have not stopped since.A flood watch is up for the area again.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17599


LSU Earth Scan Lab

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Quoting Hurricanes4life:

I'm guessing that as well, however it could be a bust here if the center passes to the east, like Maria. If it heads a little to my west I'm sure I'll be in for a solid storm. I think the models (18z) have trended a little west, and im guessing the NHC update will move there cone accordingly to bring the center over the Avalon.


Yeah.

Doesn't look like a miss this time. Poor Newfoundland...has gotten hit several times this season.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32689


Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 51 Comments: 1731
Quoting Skyepony:




WeatherNerd~ At least the models threatened CA that day..

It didn't happen (thankfully), Hilary was mostly a fish storm, but it's rainbands did cause flooding in the West Coast of MX. Also, it's impressive that the EPAC has only had 8 storms and has had a pretty decent ACE total.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
270. Skyepony (Mod)
Tropical~ I glanced at her on FNMOC & she looked naked..cause it was IR & she's about the same temp as the ocean I guess. Not so naked on vis.. Her T# has been 1 for 2 days & she went EXTRP ~6hrs ago.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 208 Comments: 39049
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32689
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It'll be comparable to all of those storms, as it will probably make landfall as a Category 1 hurricane.

I'm guessing that as well, however it could be a bust here if the center passes to the east, like Maria. If it heads a little to my west I'm sure I'll be in for a solid storm. I think the models (18z) have trended a little west, and im guessing the NHC update will move there cone accordingly to bring the center over the Avalon.
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Quoting Skyepony:


Yes & I don't think 90kts is out of the question for Newfoundland at this point (3 out of 7 models agree), hopefully it will be a little less..

WeatherNerd~ Atleast the models threatened CA that day..


That would be bad, I haven't seen any models saying 90kts. The strongest ive seen is the GFDL about 50 to 55 kts by the time it gets here. Although all those models ended up being underdone in strength right now.
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Quoting Hurricanes4life:


Thanks, that is what I feared, I'm currently in St.john's here in Newfoundland studying at Memorial university. Got a few labs Monday morning, I figure they may get disrupted. Been through several hurricanes in my life, Maria (2011) Igor (2010) Bill (2009) and back in Nova Scotia for Kyle (2008) Juan (2003). Any idea how Ophelia may live up to any of those storms? Thanks in Advance!

It'll be comparable to all of those storms, as it will probably make landfall as a Category 1 hurricane.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32689
Ophelia for being written off as dead has probably made one the greatest, if not the greatest comeback ever of a tropical system!, still think the area east of T &T bears watching!
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264. JLPR2
2011OCT01 234500 6.5 932.5/ -2.5 /127.0 6.5 6.6 6.6

146mph, 932.5mb.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Yes.


Thanks, that is what I feared, I'm currently in St.john's here in Newfoundland studying at Memorial university. Got a few labs Monday morning, I figure they may get disrupted. Been through several hurricanes in my life, Maria (2011) Igor (2010) Bill (2009) and back in Nova Scotia for Kyle (2008) Juan (2003). Any idea how Ophelia may live up to any of those storms? Thanks in Advance!
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262. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting Hurricanes4life:
Would it be correct to say, the stronger Ophelia gets now, the worse it will end up being in south-eastern Newfoundland? Obviously she will weaken, but wouldn't the intensity be stronger father north the stronger she gets now. For example if they forecast her to be at 115mph now, but is really 135mph. Would that mean she would be more like 75-85mph around the Newfoundland instead of 60-70mph?


Yes & I don't think 90kts is out of the question for Newfoundland at this point (3 out of 7 models agree), hopefully it will be a little less..

WeatherNerd~ Atleast the models threatened CA that day..
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 208 Comments: 39049
Quoting Skyepony:


You don't miss Hilary? I guess she still is a naked extrp ghost swirl that is still active. She's 10 days old today too.

Even though it wasn't the most unstable year, some of these storms have lasted...


Hilary was a good storm, but I prefer tracking storms in the Atlantic, since tracks here are more interesting to forecast. The EPAC storms are so predictable.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
Olando: Clear

temp:71F

humidity 41%

dewpoint 45F

NW winds 5-10 MPH

Gotta love it!!!
Member Since: May 26, 2007 Posts: 47 Comments: 1368
16L/MH/O/C4
MARK
33.22N/62.25W
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Quoting Skyepony:


You don't miss Hilary? I guess she still is a naked extrp ghost swirl that is still active. She's 10 days old today too.

Even though it wasn't the most unstable year, some of these storms have lasted...



Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32689
Quoting Hurricanes4life:
Would it be correct to say, the stronger Ophelia gets now, the worse it will end up being in south-eastern Newfoundland? Obviously she will weaken, but wouldn't the intensity be stronger father north the stronger she gets now. For example if they forecast her to be at 115mph now, but is really 135mph. Would that mean she would be more like 75-85mph around the Newfoundland instead of 60-70mph?

Yes.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32689
Would it be correct to say, the stronger Ophelia gets now, the worse it will end up being in south-eastern Newfoundland? Obviously she will weaken, but wouldn't the intensity be stronger father north the stronger she gets now. For example if they forecast her to be at 115mph now, but is really 135mph. Would that mean she would be more like 75-85mph around the Newfoundland instead of 60-70mph?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
255. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Ugh, not again.


You don't miss Hilary? I guess she still is a naked extrp ghost swirl that is still active. She's 10 days old today too.

Even though it wasn't the most unstable year, some of these storms have lasted...

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 208 Comments: 39049
Quoting cyclonekid:


Breaking records this year.

*8 tropical storms and no hurricanes (beginning the year out)
*farthest north Cat 4 since Diana (Hurricane Ella holds the record)

What else?

Nothing so far.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32689
Quoting Skyepony:
I think Ophelia will peak right before sunrise there. It's the time of day many peak, models like it too.. MIMIC starting to get somewhat concentric rings..don't hold much hope to see Cat 5..but hard to have too much confidence, she's got the whole night ahead & looks to be on an intensifying trend.

I agree.

Probably a 140-150 mph peak.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32689
Quoting JLPR2:


More like brush and water temps are going to drop dramatically soon, so it should arrive there as a weakening storm, possibly extra tropical.

Inform yourself before calling anyone a dork...


Ya and this storm wasn't even suppose to do anything
Member Since: July 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 79
251. weatherh98
11:58 PM GMT on October 01, 2011
Quoting FloatingCity:


Its going to hit newfoundland....thats land dork..


way to show respectfor others iggy
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
250. cyclonekid
11:57 PM GMT on October 01, 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Ophelia has become the farthest north Category 4 hurricane since Diana in 1984.


Breaking records this year.

*8 tropical storms and no hurricanes (beginning the year out)
*farthest north Cat 4 since Diana (Hurricane Ella holds the record)

What else?
Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 51 Comments: 1731
249. Skyepony (Mod)
11:57 PM GMT on October 01, 2011
I think Ophelia will peak right before sunrise there. It's the time of day many peak, models like it too.. MIMIC starting to get somewhat concentric rings..don't hold much hope to see Cat 5..but hard to have too much confidence, she's got the whole night ahead & looks to be on an intensifying trend.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 208 Comments: 39049
248. SPLbeater
11:56 PM GMT on October 01, 2011
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
:) I say she peaks at 160mph. Just cause I want her to.


LOL. yeah peak at 160 mph then go post tropical before Newfoundland. perfect hehe
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4488
247. JLPR2
11:56 PM GMT on October 01, 2011
Quoting FloatingCity:


Its going to hit newfoundland....thats land dork..


More like brush and water temps are going to drop dramatically soon, so it should arrive there as a weakening storm, possibly extra tropical.

Inform yourself before calling anyone a dork...
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
246. TropicalAnalystwx13
11:55 PM GMT on October 01, 2011
Ophelia has become the farthest north Category 4 hurricane since Diana in 1984.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32689
245. WeatherNerdPR
11:55 PM GMT on October 01, 2011
Quoting Skyepony:


I'm half expecting that to be a strong TS or hurricane in 3-4 days.

Ugh, not again.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
244. cyclonekid
11:54 PM GMT on October 01, 2011
Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 51 Comments: 1731
243. FloatingCity
11:53 PM GMT on October 01, 2011
Quoting weatherh98:
come on a perfect 5, no land as long as bermuda is ok


Its going to hit newfoundland....thats land dork..
Member Since: July 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 79
242. washingtonian115
11:52 PM GMT on October 01, 2011
Quoting weatherh98:
come on a perfect 5, no land as long as bermuda is ok
Igor of last year was almost a perfect 5.Not cuasing trouble for anybody while at it's strongest point.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17599
241. TropicalAnalystwx13
11:51 PM GMT on October 01, 2011
Come on Ophelia...keep going...
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32689
240. weatherh98
11:51 PM GMT on October 01, 2011
come on a perfect 5, no land as long as bermuda is ok
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
239. trHUrrIXC5MMX
11:50 PM GMT on October 01, 2011

Models call for major hurricane Irwin out of this... maybe not
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
238. Skyepony (Mod)
11:49 PM GMT on October 01, 2011
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
lol


I'm half expecting that to be a strong TS or hurricane in 3-4 days.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 208 Comments: 39049
237. washingtonian115
11:47 PM GMT on October 01, 2011
I see another "T" is in the house.You all remember the routine...just '!' and "-".Looks like Ophilia is now a cat 4.Beautiful storm.It has to be one of the most comback storms in my recent memory.(we all know the story of T.D 10 back in 2005 and what that turned into).
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17599
236. hurricanehunter27
11:47 PM GMT on October 01, 2011
SO CLOSE!

Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3851
235. JLPR2
11:46 PM GMT on October 01, 2011
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


I want that too


Yeah! me too.
Now I'm thinking she will peak at 140mph at 11pm.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
234. WeatherNerdPR
11:45 PM GMT on October 01, 2011
lol

Compared to:
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
233. Skyepony (Mod)
11:44 PM GMT on October 01, 2011
Ophelia intensifying again..
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 208 Comments: 39049

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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