Ophelia brushing Bermuda; Super Typhoon Nalgae hits the Philippines

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:50 PM GMT on October 01, 2011

Share this Blog
20
+

Hurricane Ophelia is steaming northwards to the east of Bermuda as a powerful Category 3 hurricane with 120 mph winds. Radar out of Bermuda shows that rain bands from Ophelia are beginning to affect the island, though as of noon Saturday, the Bermuda airport has reported just one brief rain shower and a peak wind gust of 21 mph. Recent satellite loops show that Ophelia is well-organized, with a prominent eye, good upper-level outflow, and solid lower-level spiral banding. The models agree that Ophelia will track far enough to the east of Bermuda that the island should see sustained winds below 30 mph, since it will be on the weak (left) side of the storm. The 11 am wind probability forecast from NHC gave Bermuda a 19% chance of receiving tropical storm force winds of 39 mph, and no chance of receiving hurricane force winds. Ophelia's closest approach to the island will be late Saturday night through early Sunday morning. Ophelia is likely to bring high winds and heavy rains to Southeast Newfoundland Monday. The 11 am wind probability forecast for Cape Race, Newfoundland gave it a 47% chance of receiving tropical storm force winds, and a 1% chance of hurricane force winds.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Ophelia.

Tropical Storm Philippe no threat to land
In the middle Atlantic, Tropical Storm Philippe continues to struggle against dry air and high wind shear. Satellite loops show Philippe is a small system with little heavy thunderstorm activity, with the surface circulation partially exposed to view by wind shear. Wind shear is a very high 30 - 40 knots, thanks to the upper-level outflow from Ophelia. This shear will remain high through Tuesday, but may relax to the moderate range as Philippe turns towards the north on Wednesday. It is unlikely that Philippe will trouble any land areas.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic, none of the computer models is calling for a new tropical storm to form in the coming seven days (though the NOGAPS model shows a strong tropical disturbance forming in the Western Caribbean in about 7 days, something it has erroneously been predicting frequently during the past few weeks.) The large-scale environment over the Atlantic currently favors sinking air, due to the current phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). This situation will likely last well into next week, and will discourage formation of new tropical storms. The MJO is a 30 - 60 day cycle of thunderstorm activity that affects the tropics.


Figure 2. True-color MODIS image of Typhoon Nalgae approaching the Philippine Islands, taken at 02:15 UTC Friday, September 30, 2011. At the time, Nalgae was a strengthening Category 1 typhoon with 90 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Super Typhoon Nalgae hits the Philippines
Typhoon Nalgae roared ashore over the Philippines' main island of Luzon as a super typhoon with 150 mph winds at 9 am local time this morning. Nalgae dumped heavy rains of 4 - 8 inches across a large swath of Northern Luzon; 4.81" of rain fell on Viganon the northwest coast of Luzon. The capital of Manila received 0.30" of rain from Nalgae, and experienced wind gusts up to 36 mph. Nalgae is the second major typhoon in a week to hit northern Luzon; on Monday, Typhoon Nesat hit the same region as a Category 3 storm with 120 mph winds, killing at least 52 people. Nalgae's rains fell on soils already saturated from Nesat's heavy rains, and the potential exists for high loss of life due to extreme flooding and mudslides. Nalgae is expected to follow a track almost exactly the same as Nesat's, passing near China's Hainan Island on Tuesday, and then hitting northern Vietnam.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 333 - 283

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10Blog Index

Quoting washingtonian115:
Ophelia is being censored!!.


lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Ophelia is being censored!!.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16441
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5639
329. JLPR2


Actually it's starting to look better again.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8520
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

The eye has warmed so much that if it warms further it will open up a wormhole that'll lead us to another dimension.


LOL.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31564
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

The eye has warmed so much that if it warms further it will open up a wormhole that'll lead us to another dimension.


LOL, ahahhahha
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Weakening? Definitely not...Hold steady? Yeah.


The eye has warmed so much that if it warms further it will open up a wormhole that'll lead us to another dimension.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5639
Sorry had to put a blogger on iggy for the moment due to them screwing up the format.They will be taken off soon once the problem is fixed or when we go to a new page.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16441
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Holy chicken wings look at the pressure.

lol, yeah.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31564
Quoting Hurricanes4life:
I think she may be trending downward in intensity again. probably peaked about an 1/2 an hour ago or so.


Weakening? Definitely not...Hold steady? Yeah.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31564
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I think Ophelia found her peak at 125 knots (145 mph), unless she begins to strengthen again. But for now, she is holding steady.

2011OCT02 011500 6.5 932.3/ -2.7 /127.0 6.5 6.5 6.5 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 12.94 -67.53 EYE 23 IR 33.22 62.08 COMBO

Holy chicken wings look at the pressure.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5639
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Just three hours ago, the NHC put the chances of Ophelia reaching Category 4 status at 3%.

Now look where it is...
The NHC have been really bad with intensity forecast this year.Last year they did a good job even in 2009 and 2008.What is 2011 trying to prove?
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16441
I think she may be trending downward in intensity again. probably peaked about an 1/2 an hour ago or so.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I think Ophelia found her peak at 125 knots (145 mph), unless she begins to strengthen again. But for now, she is holding steady.

2011OCT02 011500 6.5 932.3/ -2.7 /127.0 6.5 6.5 6.5 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 12.94 -67.53 EYE 23 IR 33.22 62.08 COMBO
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31564
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
At 11pm I think:
140mph - 145mph
940mb - 945mb
But that's just a guess.


I'm gonna guess 140 mph, considering this hurricane looks so great at such a high latitude. :P
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
317. JLPR2
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
At 11pm I think:
140mph - 145mph
940mb - 945mb
But that's just a guess.


I would like to see:
HURRICANE OPHELIA BECOMES THE STRONGEST HURRICANE, SO FAR, OF THE 2011 SEASON.

I'm thinking along those line too.
140mph
938-940mb
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8520
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It'll be somewhere between 125-145 mph, but not 130 mph.

Well, let's see what Ophelia does for the next hour and a half.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5639
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
At 11pm I think:
140mph - 145mph
940mb - 945mb
But that's just a guess.

It'll be somewhere between 125-145 mph, but not 130 mph.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31564
At 11pm I think:
140mph - 145mph
940mb - 945mb
But that's just a guess.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5639
Best looking eye of this year in the ATL. Irene and Katia never maintained an eye like this for an extended period of time.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

With the high Sea Surface Temperatures and the high Ocean Heat Content, I think there is a good chance of the latter occurring. Not saying it will occur, but IMO, there is a good chance.


agreed.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting stormpetrol:
Ophelia for being written off as dead has probably made one the greatest, if not the greatest comeback ever of a tropical system!, still think the area east of T &T bears watching!

Some lightening around for the past 3-4 hours.
No wind, hot and still with gentle drizzle from time to time.
Looks like we may get some action later tonight/tomorrow.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting tropicfreak:
Bermuda has been brushed several times this year, Jose, Gert, Katia, Ophelia, just to name a few, Franklin believe it or not dropped a little rain before he moved out.

I give Ophelia, the best looking hurricane of the year award for 2011, unless a future hurricane takes her place.

With the high Sea Surface Temperatures and the high Ocean Heat Content, I think there is a good chance of the latter occurring. Not saying it will occur, but IMO, there is a good chance.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31564
Bermuda has been brushed several times this year, Jose, Gert, Katia, Ophelia, just to name a few, Franklin believe it or not dropped a little rain before he moved out.

I give Ophelia, the best looking hurricane of the year award for 2011, unless a future hurricane takes her place.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JLPR2:


The ring of intense convection is almost closed around the eye. Neat!


Yep.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31564
307. JLPR2
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


The ring of intense convection is almost closed around the eye. Neat!
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8520


seems to be a light circulation in this area!
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7711
Why??
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31564
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31564
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Just three hours ago, the NHC put the chances of Ophelia reaching Category 4 status at 3%.

Now look where it is...


Yeah, intensity forecasts are very difficult. This storm likes to strengthen no matter what people say. Kinda like an annular hurricane, but it isn't. But it kinda is in terms wanting to increase intensity/ maintain it!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

This season is the NHC's worst nightmare...

lol.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31564
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Just three hours ago, the NHC put the chances of Ophelia reaching Category 4 status at 3%.

Now look where it is...

This season is the NHC's worst nightmare...
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5639
Just three hours ago, the NHC put the chances of Ophelia reaching Category 4 status at 3%.

Now look where it is...
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31564
Quoting Skyepony:


Yeah there is a little if left in the exact where she landfalls. That Low has been such a slow mover I see what your saying about the front drawing it more west. I was almost surprised how long the Canada expects it go before it goes EXTRP (thanx Keeper). Best of luck..let us know how you fair,


Will do, for sure. It seem people at the CHC are downplaying it a bit. Saying there is only 5 to 10% chance of a hurricane force gust. They wont even mention sustained winds.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Nobody.

It amazes me how unpredictable weather can be sometimes.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Ameister12:
Category 4 Hurricane Ophelia.

Who would ever have guessed it would ever get this strong a week ago?
I never thought she'd get this strong either.She totally died out.And the forecasters all thought it was the end of her.This has to be one of the greatest come backs of a tropical cyclone.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16441
295. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting Hurricanes4life:


Thank you very much! I wonder if the front will act to draw the storm more westward than the model's show. Something similar happened last year with Igor, when it was by Newfoundland. Also, very Humid here in Newfoundland, and very warm for this time of year. Usually these types of air masses delay the extra tropical transition.


Yeah there is a little if left in the exact where she landfalls. That Low has been such a slow mover I see what your saying about the front drawing it more west. I was almost surprised how long the Canada expects it go before it goes EXTRP (thanx Keeper). Best of luck..let us know how you fair,
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37455
Quoting Neapolitan:
ATCF holds Ophelia at 115 knots (Cat 4):

AL, 16, 2011100200, , BEST, 0, 326N, 624W, 115, 944, HU, 64, NEQ, 25, 25, 20, 20, 1009, 180, 15, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, OPHELIA, D,

Philippe holding too..

AL, 17, 2011100200, , BEST, 0, 253N, 493W, 55, 996, TS, 50, NEQ, 50, 0, 0, 50, 1014, 125, 25, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, PHILIPPE, M,
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31564
Quoting hydrus:
Frost advisory for all of Middle Tennessee tonight from Canadian air mass...
Observed at: Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 8:00 PM EDT Saturday 1 October 2011
Condition: Mainly Clear
Pressure: 30.08 inches
Tendency: rising
Visibility: 15 miles
Air Quality Health Index: 2

Temperature: 47.7°F
Dewpoint: 29.8°F
Humidity: 50 %
Wind: N 14 mph
GOING DOWN TO 35 TONIGHT FROST RISK
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53308
ATCF holds Ophelia at 115 knots (Cat 4):

AL, 16, 2011100200, , BEST, 0, 326N, 624W, 115, 944, HU, 64, NEQ, 25, 25, 20, 20, 1009, 180, 15, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, OPHELIA, D,
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Frost advisory for all of Middle Tennessee tonight from Canadian air mass...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Ameister12:
Category 4 Hurricane Ophelia.

Who would ever have guessed it would ever get this strong a week ago?

Nobody.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31564
289. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting Hurricanes4life:
Does anyone know what the chance of a EWRC is in the next 24 hours for Ophelia?


On MIMIC you can see concentric eyewalls forming so one seems eminent in the next day.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37455
Large trough.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Environment Canada's Official Weather Warnings

Tropical storm watch for
St. John's and vicinity issued

Hurricane Ophelia is forecast to track close to the southeastern portion of Newfoundland Monday morning with a possibility of tropical storm conditions.

A tropical storm watch means that a tropical storm or an incipient tropical storm condition poses a possible threat to the specified areas within 36 hours.

Given the close range of hurricane Ophelia's track to the Avalon Peninsula Monday morning, a tropical storm watch is being issued by the Canadian Hurricane Centre for that region. This means that there is a possibility of tropical storm force winds (60 gusting to 90 km/h) from Ophelia.

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53308
Quoting Skyepony:


Here's more models, including the ones I was referencing. It's about 3 dots out to landfall. The underdone factor has me leaning toward the stronger ones. The front was really cold too so she should get plenty of baroclinic support as she goes EXTRP as well.


Thank you very much! I wonder if the front will act to draw the storm more westward than the model's show. Something similar happened last year with Igor, when it was by Newfoundland. Also, very Humid here in Newfoundland, and very warm for this time of year. Usually these types of air masses delay the extra tropical transition.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
285. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

It didn't happen (thankfully), Hilary was mostly a fish storm, but it's rainbands did cause flooding in the West Coast of MX. Also, it's impressive that the EPAC has only had 8 storms and has had a pretty decent ACE total.


It's been where to see the pretty storms this year..TX dust not strangling them there. The set up though has made it hard for them to get too far from land, the Open Pacific was a little cooler, definitely limiting numbers..
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37455
Category 4 Hurricane Ophelia.

Who would ever have guessed it would ever get this strong a week ago?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
guys 11pm 135 140 125 145?

I'm going with 140Mph, I wish they had a recon out there it would be nice to get some data for 2011's Strongest Atlantic storm to date. Too bad it isn't daylight, the visible sat on her would be beautiful i bet (:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 333 - 283

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.