Ophelia brushing Bermuda; Super Typhoon Nalgae hits the Philippines

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:50 PM GMT on October 01, 2011

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Hurricane Ophelia is steaming northwards to the east of Bermuda as a powerful Category 3 hurricane with 120 mph winds. Radar out of Bermuda shows that rain bands from Ophelia are beginning to affect the island, though as of noon Saturday, the Bermuda airport has reported just one brief rain shower and a peak wind gust of 21 mph. Recent satellite loops show that Ophelia is well-organized, with a prominent eye, good upper-level outflow, and solid lower-level spiral banding. The models agree that Ophelia will track far enough to the east of Bermuda that the island should see sustained winds below 30 mph, since it will be on the weak (left) side of the storm. The 11 am wind probability forecast from NHC gave Bermuda a 19% chance of receiving tropical storm force winds of 39 mph, and no chance of receiving hurricane force winds. Ophelia's closest approach to the island will be late Saturday night through early Sunday morning. Ophelia is likely to bring high winds and heavy rains to Southeast Newfoundland Monday. The 11 am wind probability forecast for Cape Race, Newfoundland gave it a 47% chance of receiving tropical storm force winds, and a 1% chance of hurricane force winds.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Ophelia.

Tropical Storm Philippe no threat to land
In the middle Atlantic, Tropical Storm Philippe continues to struggle against dry air and high wind shear. Satellite loops show Philippe is a small system with little heavy thunderstorm activity, with the surface circulation partially exposed to view by wind shear. Wind shear is a very high 30 - 40 knots, thanks to the upper-level outflow from Ophelia. This shear will remain high through Tuesday, but may relax to the moderate range as Philippe turns towards the north on Wednesday. It is unlikely that Philippe will trouble any land areas.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic, none of the computer models is calling for a new tropical storm to form in the coming seven days (though the NOGAPS model shows a strong tropical disturbance forming in the Western Caribbean in about 7 days, something it has erroneously been predicting frequently during the past few weeks.) The large-scale environment over the Atlantic currently favors sinking air, due to the current phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). This situation will likely last well into next week, and will discourage formation of new tropical storms. The MJO is a 30 - 60 day cycle of thunderstorm activity that affects the tropics.


Figure 2. True-color MODIS image of Typhoon Nalgae approaching the Philippine Islands, taken at 02:15 UTC Friday, September 30, 2011. At the time, Nalgae was a strengthening Category 1 typhoon with 90 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Super Typhoon Nalgae hits the Philippines
Typhoon Nalgae roared ashore over the Philippines' main island of Luzon as a super typhoon with 150 mph winds at 9 am local time this morning. Nalgae dumped heavy rains of 4 - 8 inches across a large swath of Northern Luzon; 4.81" of rain fell on Viganon the northwest coast of Luzon. The capital of Manila received 0.30" of rain from Nalgae, and experienced wind gusts up to 36 mph. Nalgae is the second major typhoon in a week to hit northern Luzon; on Monday, Typhoon Nesat hit the same region as a Category 3 storm with 120 mph winds, killing at least 52 people. Nalgae's rains fell on soils already saturated from Nesat's heavy rains, and the potential exists for high loss of life due to extreme flooding and mudslides. Nalgae is expected to follow a track almost exactly the same as Nesat's, passing near China's Hainan Island on Tuesday, and then hitting northern Vietnam.

Jeff Masters

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383. 7544
could we say the best is still yet to come for oct.
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Plankton??

Electrifying blue waves luring awe-struck crowds to San Diego beaches
By: Pete Thomas, GrindTV.com Friday, September 30, 2011 12:48pm PDT
By day, a red tide is unsightly and uninviting, with water the color of coffee. But at night, during this unusual phenomenon caused by a plankton bloom, the waves are a brilliant, almost neon blue. This wonderfully surreal scene has played out almost nightly along San Diego beaches for several weeks, luring spectators with cameras and video recorders.
Link

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Quoting Tazmanian:
look you see it fins and you see its tale
He looks like a plankton.
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Ww had to wait until the o name to meet the strongest hurricane of the season 2011. Ophelia made it on it's second life.... sounds wrong right?
Philipe strengthening under 30 kt shear???

such an up-side-down season...
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Quoting Tazmanian:
PHILIPPE looks more like a fish

He's starting to look like his family members now.
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It seems that Phillipe is getting pulled into Ophelia's rotation. The name for this effect is called
Fujiwhara.

Click this link to learn more
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fujiwhara_interactio n
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look you see it fins and you see its tale
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PHILIPPE looks more like a fish

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PHILIPPE CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY IN SPITE OF MORE THAN 30 KT OF
NORTHERLY SHEAR AFFECTING THE CYCLONE.


LMAO. That tells me that shear is way overrated by forecasters.
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Quoting MoltenIce:
I know right? I never anticipated Ophelia to be a Category 4.
Me either.I think the NHC is being a little bit conservative with Phillipe's intensity.I think it could have a shot of being one.And hey after staying around this long and fighting with shear I think he deserves to be one.
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Quoting wunderweatherman123:
ophelia becomes the strongest hurricane of the 2011 season 140mph and 940mb
WOW! A lot of so called experts will get their walking papers over this one. Suppose it was on Irene's path and it blew up like this with NO WARNING!
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Lol, nice opener.

HURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 38
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
1100 PM AST SAT OCT 01 2011

DURING ITS SECOND LIFETIME...OPHELIA HAS BEEN AN OVERACHIEVER AND
HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY. THE BERMUDA RADAR EARLIER INDICATED
THAT THE EYEWALL WAS QUITE STRONG WITH A CLOSED PRESENTATION. MORE
RECENTLY...SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A WARM WELL-DEFINED EYE...A MORE
SYMMETRIC CLOUD PATTERN...AND COOLING CLOUD TOPS IN THE EYEWALL.
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK DATA-T VALUES WERE NEAR 115 KT AT 00Z...WITH
CIMSS ADT VALUES REACHING 122 KT. A BLEND OF THESE DATA GIVES AN
INITIAL WIND SPEED OF 120 KT. WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN SOON AS THE
HURRICANE MOVES OVER COOLER SSTS...AND THE DECREASE IN STRENGTH
SHOULD BE QUITE RAPID BY MIDDAY TOMORROW DUE TO AN INCREASE IN
SHEAR AND OPHELIA CROSSING THE NORTH WALL OF THE GULF STREAM. THE
NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE LGEM MODEL AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE...010/23. A
GRADUALLY ACCELERATING TRACK TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST SHOULD
BEGIN EARLY SUNDAY AS THE CYCLONE MOVES BETWEEN A DEEP TROUGH
ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST AND A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
THE HURRICANE WILL LIKELY TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST BY MONDAY
MORNING AS IT MOVES AROUND THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE.
ALMOST ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW OPHELIA NEAR OR JUST TO THE
SOUTH OF NEWFOUNDLAND IN ABOUT 36 HOURS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
HAS BEEN SHIFTED LEFTWARD AND LIES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.
IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT OF THE GENERALLY RELIABLE GUIDANCE...ONLY
THE ECMWF KEEPS THE CENTER OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...THE STORM WILL
LIKELY BE RAPIDLY TRANSITIONING TO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY THAT
TIME...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OCCURRING AT SOME DISTANCE
SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON A 0046 UTC ASCAT PASS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0300Z 33.8N 62.2W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 02/1200Z 37.4N 61.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 03/0000Z 42.5N 59.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 03/1200Z 46.5N 53.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 04/0000Z 49.5N 44.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 05/0000Z 53.0N 22.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BRENNAN
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32281
Quoting washingtonian115:
Phillipe still alive!!! and almost a hurricane?!!!!.oh man this season is so confusing and unexpecting.
I know right? I never anticipated Ophelia to be a Category 4.
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Quoting SPLbeater:
Ophelia 140mph now...Phillipe 70mph? WTF!!!


Ophelia 140mph amazes me. Water temps in this region are 5 degrees cooler still she intensifies?
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Phillipe still alive!!! and almost a hurricane?!!!!.oh man this season is so confusing and unexpecting.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Philippe up to 70 mph.


It's also an overachiever... just like Ophelia :P
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366. 7544
Quoting SPLbeater:
Ophelia 140mph now...Phillipe 70mph? WTF!!!


and not bothering anyone lol
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ophelia becomes the strongest hurricane of the 2011 season 140mph and 940mb
Member Since: August 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1725
Ophelia 140mph now...Phillipe 70mph? WTF!!!
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NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
1100 PM AST SAT OCT 01 2011

...OPHELIA MOVING QUICKLY NORTHWARD WITH 140 MPH WINDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.8N 62.2W
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM NE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1010 MI...1625 KM SSW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES
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Philippe up to 70 mph.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32281
Looks like the first cold front from Conus captures remains of Philippe... That will officially open the Surfing season in PR....

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i still smell like Coppertone sunscreen from the beach,lol. NHC kinda sluggish tonight with advisories eh? or is it cuz they got 2 complete advisories to write...maybe so..
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Quoting MoltenIce:
Too bad we didn't VIS images of Ophelia now. Would be a spectacular sight, based on her organisation on IR.

It'll be there for us in the morning. ;)

Quoting SPLbeater:
dis aint no neutral year, atleast not activity wise, that is

Its been a Neutral/La Nina combination.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32281
dis aint no neutral year, atleast not activity wise, that is
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Too bad we didn't VIS images of Ophelia now. Would be a spectacular sight, based on her organisation on IR.
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October will likley be active.especially since this is a nutreal year.(2005 and 2008 had very active October's).
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With every one of those images of Ophelia tearing up the east coast, albeit far from land, I hear the music of the Navy hymn, and that pleading last line: "For those in peril on the sea."
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Quoting FrankZapper:
I just got off the phone with an expert and he says with Op exiting and the fronts moving on down we can FINALLY let down our guards in the US and relax. Islanders may not be so lucky as he sees a possible threat from the south in 2 weeks.

If he said that, he isn't much of an expert...
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32281
24.1n62.9w, 25.5n63.0w, 27.0n63.1w, 28.5n62.9w, 30.4n62.8w have been re-evaluated&altered for H.Ophelia's_2Oct_12amGMT_ATCF
24.2n62.9w, 25.6n63.0w, 27.0n63.1w, 28.5n63.1w, 30.4n62.8w, 32.6n62.4w are now the most recent positions
Starting 30Sept_6pmGMT and ending 2Oct_12amGMT

The 5 southern line-segments represent HurricaneOphelia's path,
the northernmost line-segment is the straightline projection for 2Oct_12amGMT,
the coastline dumbbell at 45.037n61.85w-YPS is the endpoint of the straightline projection
connected to its nearest airport for the 1Oct_6pmGMT*mapping,
and the coastline dumbbell at 45.876n59.991w-YPS is the same for the 1Oct_12pmGMT*mapping.

Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the
ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 6pmGMT then 12amGMT :
H.Ophelia's travel-speed was 25.5mph(41k/h) on a heading of 8.8degrees(N)
H.Ophelia was headed toward passage over BurntIslands,Newfoundland ~1day14hours from now

Copy&paste 45.876n59.991w-yps, 45.037n61.85w-yps, 24.2n62.9w-25.6n63.0w, 25.6n63.0w-27.0n63.1w, 27.0n63.1w-28.5n63.1w, 28.5n63.1w-30.4n62.8w, 30.4n62.8w-32.6n62.4w, bda, 30.4n62.8w-47.596n58.895w, yjt into the GreatCircleMapper for more info

The previous mapping for 1Oct_6pmGMT


* The alterations of the endpoints of a TropicalCyclone's previous paths also change its previous travel-speeds&headings, and the endpoints of its previous straightline projections...
...but I'm choosing to preserve the historicity of the mappings.
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Ophelia is moving out of view of the Bermuda radar.
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 5026
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:


Rush... Powerful.... like always...

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Quoting MelbourneTom:
A long ways out but the model says the season is not over yet.



Of course it isn't, we still have several more storms to go.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32281
Quoting BDAwx:
Seems like Bermuda really escaped Ophelia unscathed :).

Y'all are very very lucky...

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A long ways out but the model says the season is not over yet.


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342. BDAwx
Seems like Bermuda really escaped Ophelia unscathed :).
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Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32281
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Quoting bappit:

Say what?

It'll be somewhere between 125-145 mph, but not 130 mph. Additionally, the pressure will be somewhere between 940-945 mbar, but not 944 mbar...It will be moving WNW to ENE, but not NNW.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32281
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It'll be somewhere between 125-145 mph, but not 130 mph.

Say what?
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Ophelia's eye temperature continues to warm, and Ophelia's mean cloud cover temperature continues to cool, now down to -67.90C (again, MEAN cloud cover temp.)

2011OCT02 014500 6.5 932.2/ -2.8 /127.0 6.5 6.5 6.5 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 11.94 -67.90 EYE 23 IR 33.41 62.05 COMBO

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32281
Looks like the hurricane symbol.

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Quoting washingtonian115:
Ophelia is being censored!!.


lol
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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