Ophelia brushing Bermuda; Super Typhoon Nalgae hits the Philippines

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:50 PM GMT on October 01, 2011

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Hurricane Ophelia is steaming northwards to the east of Bermuda as a powerful Category 3 hurricane with 120 mph winds. Radar out of Bermuda shows that rain bands from Ophelia are beginning to affect the island, though as of noon Saturday, the Bermuda airport has reported just one brief rain shower and a peak wind gust of 21 mph. Recent satellite loops show that Ophelia is well-organized, with a prominent eye, good upper-level outflow, and solid lower-level spiral banding. The models agree that Ophelia will track far enough to the east of Bermuda that the island should see sustained winds below 30 mph, since it will be on the weak (left) side of the storm. The 11 am wind probability forecast from NHC gave Bermuda a 19% chance of receiving tropical storm force winds of 39 mph, and no chance of receiving hurricane force winds. Ophelia's closest approach to the island will be late Saturday night through early Sunday morning. Ophelia is likely to bring high winds and heavy rains to Southeast Newfoundland Monday. The 11 am wind probability forecast for Cape Race, Newfoundland gave it a 47% chance of receiving tropical storm force winds, and a 1% chance of hurricane force winds.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Ophelia.

Tropical Storm Philippe no threat to land
In the middle Atlantic, Tropical Storm Philippe continues to struggle against dry air and high wind shear. Satellite loops show Philippe is a small system with little heavy thunderstorm activity, with the surface circulation partially exposed to view by wind shear. Wind shear is a very high 30 - 40 knots, thanks to the upper-level outflow from Ophelia. This shear will remain high through Tuesday, but may relax to the moderate range as Philippe turns towards the north on Wednesday. It is unlikely that Philippe will trouble any land areas.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic, none of the computer models is calling for a new tropical storm to form in the coming seven days (though the NOGAPS model shows a strong tropical disturbance forming in the Western Caribbean in about 7 days, something it has erroneously been predicting frequently during the past few weeks.) The large-scale environment over the Atlantic currently favors sinking air, due to the current phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). This situation will likely last well into next week, and will discourage formation of new tropical storms. The MJO is a 30 - 60 day cycle of thunderstorm activity that affects the tropics.


Figure 2. True-color MODIS image of Typhoon Nalgae approaching the Philippine Islands, taken at 02:15 UTC Friday, September 30, 2011. At the time, Nalgae was a strengthening Category 1 typhoon with 90 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Super Typhoon Nalgae hits the Philippines
Typhoon Nalgae roared ashore over the Philippines' main island of Luzon as a super typhoon with 150 mph winds at 9 am local time this morning. Nalgae dumped heavy rains of 4 - 8 inches across a large swath of Northern Luzon; 4.81" of rain fell on Viganon the northwest coast of Luzon. The capital of Manila received 0.30" of rain from Nalgae, and experienced wind gusts up to 36 mph. Nalgae is the second major typhoon in a week to hit northern Luzon; on Monday, Typhoon Nesat hit the same region as a Category 3 storm with 120 mph winds, killing at least 52 people. Nalgae's rains fell on soils already saturated from Nesat's heavy rains, and the potential exists for high loss of life due to extreme flooding and mudslides. Nalgae is expected to follow a track almost exactly the same as Nesat's, passing near China's Hainan Island on Tuesday, and then hitting northern Vietnam.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting WeatherfanPR:
55 degrees at Carrollwood,Tampa and I'm freezing !!!!!

Morning, you will get use to the chilly weather. Looks nice here in tampa all week. highs in the low-mid 80's lows in the 50's to 60's range.
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Both the ECMWF and GFS want to develop a strong sub-tropical storm off the Florida East coast by the 11th, and have been showing this solution for a few days.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24578
p storm looks done for
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 5006
55 degrees at Carrollwood,Tampa and I'm freezing !!!!!
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While waiting for the 12pmGMT ATCF...
H.Ophelia's_6amGMT_ATCF : Starting 1Oct_6amGMT and ending 2Oct_6amGMT

The 4 southern line-segments represent HurricaneOphelia's path,
the northernmost line-segment is the straightline projection for 2Oct_6amGMT,
the coastline dumbbell at 47.596n58.895w-YJT is the endpoint of the 2Oct_12amGMT
straightline projection connected to its nearest airport,
and the coastline dumbbell at 45.037n61.85w-YPS is the same for the 1Oct_6pmGMT*mapping.

Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the
ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 12amGMT then 6amGMT :
H.Ophelia's travel-speed was 27.7mph(44.5k/h) on a heading of 5.9degrees(N)
H.Ophelia was headed toward passage over SaintEsprit,NovaScotia ~21hours from now

Copy&paste 45.037n61.85w-yps, 47.596n58.895w-yjt, 27.0n63.1w-28.5n63.1w, 28.5n63.1w-30.4n62.8w, 30.4n62.8w-32.6n62.4w, 32.6n62.4w-35.0n62.1w, bda, 32.6n62.4w-45.635n60.493w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info

The previous mapping for 2Oct_12amGMT

* The alteration of the endpoint of a TropicalCyclone's previous path also changes its previous travel-speed&heading, and the endpoint of its previous straightline projection...
...but I'm choosing to preserve the historicity of the mappings.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
Quoting WxLogic:
Good Morning... nice cool start


this is freezing four days ago it was ninety now its 45 im so cold in here
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Good Morning... nice cool start
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Quoting Sfloridacat5:
GFS shows a Caribbean system in about 2 weeks. That's pretty much right on time. Most years we get a system going the 1-2 week in October.


ECMWF develops a Caribbean system towards the end of the week N. of Cuba, brings it up just east of FL.
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Threats to the Forest Canopy
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
Ophelia,Ophelia and more Ophelia.A big fish going nowhere.Now bla bla is over.
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Good Morning, How's this for cooling down in Fl. Lovin it
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Quoting charlottefl:
Starting to cool off here in the really deep south:

feels great huh
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Quoting AussieStorm:




North Luzon Expressway (NLEx) appears like a bridge from this aerial view of Bulacan province as floodwater covers large tracts of land around the freeway on Oct. 1, 2011

This is what it's like between my place and Pampanga.
Quoting AussieStorm:




North Luzon Expressway (NLEx) appears like a bridge from this aerial view of Bulacan province as floodwater covers large tracts of land around the freeway on Oct. 1, 2011

This is what it's like between my place and Pampanga.
OMG plse stay safe there
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GFS shows a Caribbean system in about 2 weeks. That's pretty much right on time. Most years we get a system going the 1-2 week in October.
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Quoting JLPR2:
Finally!

Philippe's circulation exposed.
He's gotta be the most peculiar looking storm I've ever seen.
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418. JLPR2
Finally!

Philippe's circulation exposed.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747




North Luzon Expressway (NLEx) appears like a bridge from this aerial view of Bulacan province as floodwater covers large tracts of land around the freeway on Oct. 1, 2011

This is what it's like between my place and Pampanga.
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Starting to cool off here in the really deep south:

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Rescuers struggle to save Quiel victims.



Rescuers struggled Sunday to evacuate tens of thousands of people trapped in their homes in the Philippines as more floods were forecast in the aftermath of typhoon Quiel (international codename: Nalgae)

Fanning out across inundated towns just a few hours north of the capital Manila using small boats and trucks, officials issued desperate pleas for those still refusing to leave their homes to be relocated to safety.

Quiel blew out of the Philippines after a six-hour rampage across the countrys main Luzon island Saturday, bringing fresh troubles for more than a million people affected by Typhoon Nesat which had struck five days earlier.

Quiel soaked the Cordillera mountain range, and water cascading from the slopes was expected to further swell tributaries and rivers in the central Luzon plains before draining into Manila Bay later Sunday.

We are asking everyone still refusing to leave their homes to let authorities evacuate them, Office of Civil Defense administrator Benito Ramos told AFP as he inspected the farming town of Calumpit, two hours drive north of Manila, which has been flooded for days.

Water from the Cordilleras could reach the plains today (Sunday) and there is a possibility that there wont be any more rooftops left to see if that catches up with water from Nesat thats just now subsiding, he said.

As the sun broke through the clouds early Sunday, thousands waded through waist-deep waters in search of food and drinking water but found out that even the town hall was inundated.

Residents grappled with ropes rigged on lamp posts so as not to be swept away by the strong current, while others carried improvised flotation devices such as empty water bottles.

Those with access to small canoes ferried supplies to stranded relatives, or moved out pets and livestock.

Volunteers on rubber boats went from one flooded home to another to hand over relief items, including dry clothes and instant noodles.

A white coffin was also seen rigged on a canoe, but the grieving relatives had nowhere to take the dead with the cemetery also waterlogged.

I have been trapped here for the last four days, said Ropalyn Sebastian, a 26-year-old toll booth clerk who was visiting a friend in Calumpit when Nesat struck last week.
My family is in the next town, and the last I heard from them was they were stranded in the second floor of our home.

Sebastian said she braved the water Sunday hoping it would subside, only to hear warnings of more floods expected later in the day.

Help is slow to arrive, and even the municipal hall is flooded, she said.

The National Disaster Risk Reduction Management Council in Manila recorded only one death from Quiel, but said Nesat left at least 52 people dead after it unleashed strong winds and devastating floods.

More than 2.4 million people were affected by Nesat, nearly half a million of them still staying in evacuation centres, while the rest opted to wait out the floods in their homes.

The Philippines endures an average of about 20 typhoons of the year, some of them causing widespread destruction and deaths.

Nesat and Nalgae were two of the most powerful typhoons this year, bringing torrential rains to vast areas in Luzon, including in Manila, where storm surges broke through the sea wall last week.
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Typhoons leave 55 dead, Filipinos trapped on roofs.



Back-to-back typhoons have left at least 55 people dead and rescuers scrambling to deliver food and water to hundreds of villagers marooned on rooftops for four days by floods in the northern Philippines.

Typhoon ‘Quiel’ (international name: Nalgae) blew into Isabela province Saturday then barrelled across the main Luzon Island’s mountainous north and agricultural plains that were still sodden from fierce rain and wind unleashed by a howler just days earlier.

Philippine officials said Quiel left at least three people dead Saturday while typhoon Pedring (international name: Nesat) killed 52 others in the same region before blowing out Friday.

Benito Ramos of the Office of Civil Defense said hundreds of villagers remained trapped on rooftops Sunday in a flooded town north of Manila.
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413. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #45
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM NALGAE (T1119)
15:00 PM JST October 2 2011
================================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon In South China Sea

At 6:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Nalgae (975 hPa) located at 16.7N 116.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 10 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5

Storm Force Winds
================
50 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
240 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
150 NM from the center in southwest quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 16.8N 113.9E - 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 17.3N 111.3E - 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
72 HRS: 18.1N 108.7E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
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Quoting KoritheMan:
I just wrote a blog entry on Ophelia and Philippe if anyone wants to read.


Thanks! I haven't been around for a few days and your entry helped me catch up.
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Quoting sunlinepr:
Plankton??

Electrifying blue waves luring awe-struck crowds to San Diego beaches
By: Pete Thomas, GrindTV.com Friday, September 30, 2011 12:48pm PDT
By day, a red tide is unsightly and uninviting, with water the color of coffee. But at night, during this unusual phenomenon caused by a plankton bloom, the waves are a brilliant, almost neon blue. This wonderfully surreal scene has played out almost nightly along San Diego beaches for several weeks, luring spectators with cameras and video recorders.
Link

pretty cool pic thanks
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410. JLPR2
The shrinking eye is bad news for Ophelia, good news for Newfoundland.


Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
409. JLPR2
Quoting Tazmanian:



you late on that way too late on that LOL been there for some time now


Exactly, I hadn't noticed. That was the point of the comment. :P
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
Quoting JLPR2:
I was so focused on Ophelia I didnt notice this...

Tropical Storm Philippe
11:00 PM AST Sat Oct 1
Location: 25.4N 49.8W
Max sustained: 70 mph
Moving: WNW at 9 mph
Min pressure: 996 mb

Say Wha...! XD




you late on that way too late on that LOL been there for some time now
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115455
How about this arctic blast hitting us hear in Alabama. Record lows are predicted throughout the Southeast tonight. The wind is cutting right through us. This might keep any major storms from developing during the end of the hurricane season.
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406. JLPR2
I was so focused on Ophelia I didnt notice this...

Tropical Storm Philippe
11:00 PM AST Sat Oct 1
Location: 25.4N 49.8W
Max sustained: 70 mph
Moving: WNW at 9 mph
Min pressure: 996 mb

Say Wha...! XD

Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
JMO The strong front helped with ri. Just like Wilma in '05.
Quoting JLPR2:
I knew 2011 could do it.
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402. JLPR2
I knew 2011 could do it.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
Though somewhat distorted. Shows how well organised Ophelia is.
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400. JLPR2
Water temps are starting to go down.


By Midday O should be having some cold problems.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
Ophelia looked FANTASTIC This PM, and is now on the downfall, Philippe could make a run at Category 1 Status.
So with most of the surprises out of the way, we move onto what could happen in the next 10 days...
Possible Caribbean development could occur in about 5 to 7 days, and come up as far west as E. the GULF, and as far east as Haiti.
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Quoting JLPR2:
Philippe looks like an arrow.

It's like it's saying: Hey! What are you looking at me for, look at Ophelia over there! *points*

XD
Phillipe looks like the ugly duckling of the season.Lol.He may become a hurricane but with those looks no storm system is going to want to come near him.Lol.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17831
397. JLPR2
Quoting Hurricanes4life:


Yep, usually raw numbers indicate weakening, also eye temp has cooled.


Yeah, she peaked, it's supposed to be downhill from here on out.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
396. JLPR2
Philippe looks like an arrow.

It's like it's saying: Hey! What are you looking at me for, look at Ophelia over there! *points*

XD
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
Quoting JLPR2:


You mean the Raw numbers right?

On the Final numbers she is holding steady.


Yep, usually raw numbers indicate weakening, also eye temp has cooled.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 169
394. JLPR2
Quoting Hurricanes4life:
Weakening

2011OCT02 034500 6.5 932.0/ -3.0 /127.0 6.5 6.4 6.4 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 8.04 -67.20 EYE 23 IR 34.24 62.06 COMBO


You mean the Raw numbers right?

On the Final numbers she is holding steady.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
370 mrjr101 "Ophelia 140mph amazes me. Water temps in this region are 5 degrees cooler, still she intensifies?"

Ophelia is travelling so fast, 25.5mph(41k/h), that its sucking up the heat energy of the warmest near-surface waters then moving on to new warm surface waters before the cooler waters below can upwell&mix enough to sap its strength.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
00 gfs coming out now
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Weakening

2011OCT02 034500 6.5 932.0/ -3.0 /127.0 6.5 6.4 6.4 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 8.04 -67.20 EYE 23 IR 34.24 62.06 COMBO
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 169
390. JLPR2
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Ophelia's the strongest storm of the 2011 Atlantic Hurricane season with that 140mph wind and 940mb pressure.


Who would have thought? :)
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
Quoting 7544:


and not bothering anyone lol


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Ophelia's the strongest storm of the 2011 Atlantic Hurricane season with that 140mph wind and 940mb pressure.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24578
Editorial
Man-made disaster
Philippine Daily Inquirer



Howling like unleashed demons over the oceans, typhoons have become every Filipino’s experience, especially between June and December of every year. Some of these typhoons are painfully etched in the nation’s memory for their ferocity. Names like “Ondoy,” “Falcon” and “Milenyo” still strike fear in many of those who fell victim to their blade-like winds and endless rainfall.

Fortunately, we learn. So government now tries to get ahead of typhoons by planning evacuations, suspending classes and sending out evacuation and rescue patrols. The horrors unleashed by 2009’s Typhoon “Ondoy” in particular have spurred government agencies into preemptive action.

In the Aquino administration, preemptive action has taken form in the “zero casualty” policy, the execution of which is coordinated by the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC), acting on forecasts made by the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa). But somehow, despite all that planning, despite all that readiness, people still die. That’s because you can never “outplan” the fury of nature.

“There are those who ask us why ‘zero casualty’ is often the policy of the Aquino government… Even if there are preparations, there really would be [casualties],” Deputy Presidential Spokesperson Abigail Valte said in a press briefing regarding Typhoon “Pedring’s” effect on the country. “What the government can do is to ensure as much as we can, according to our capabilities, the security of those people who are in the path of, and who would be affected by, these types of calamities.”

The numbers speak for themselves, as of this writing, Pedring is said to have left 50 dead and over P5 billion in damages to property. The figures could have been so much worse if not for the palpable, coordinated efforts of the NDRRMC and other government units, including LGUs, in evacuating people out of harm’s way and in sending boats and trucks to rescue those affected by the really bad weather. It cannot be doubted that the orchestrated government plans enabled the Filipino people to better prepare for these weather disturbances. But government can only do so much.

In the wake of Pedring, and right in the path of the next, Typhoon “Quiel,” many towns and cities in Central Luzon have been left underwater; thousands of people are stranded and billions of pesos worth of crops have been wiped out. The problem is, while many of those stranded were simply overwhelmed by the swift rise of water after the intense rainfall, followed by the simultaneous releasing of water from dams, there are also those who openly defied the government’s evacuation order.

Unfortunately, some of us never learn. There is a variety of reasons for staying behind despite the order to evacuate. One very common, and understandable, has been to protect their homes from looting. But perhaps the worst we hear is that townspeople feel their local government is simply overreacting, that Pagasa got it all wrong – or simply, that they don’t think the waters will rise high or fast enough to merit leaving their homes. Often, they exacerbate the situation by keeping their loved ones with them, trusting in their own estimates instead of what the government and its agencies are saying. Another terrible example of stubborn miscalculation, fishermen would lay sail despite the Philippine Coast Guard’s order to stay away from the increasingly stormy seas, their need to earn trumping their common sense, and so many of them go missing in the gale.

“Kung tumutugon lang sila sa advisories ng Pagasa at ng council na ito, maiiwasan natin ang casualties (If only they heed Pagasa’s advisories and this council, we can avoid the casualties),” NDRRMC head Benito Ramos told reporters.

The Aquino administration’s efforts to mitigate the harrowing effects of the typhoons may not be perfect, but they are active measures meant to minimize the death count, damage and destruction. True, the agencies can do better, but they are doing their part, forecasting and preparing, as best as they can.

It is thus left to the citizens themselves to have faith in their government’s efforts, to believe that the government has their best interest in mind when issuing evacuation orders and bans on putting out to sea. Faced with the sheer force of nature, it is up to everyone to make sure a natural disaster is not made much worse by disastrous decisions made by man.
_________________________________________________ _____________________________________________
This rings true the world over, people think they no better than government agencies and risk there life and the lives of others to save something that can be rebuilt. Is a house worth your life???
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Super Typhoon Nalgae hits the Philippines, Kills one person.



The rooftop serves as veritable Noahs Ark of a few animals, cats, dogs, chickens, ducks and a pigeon after the owners abandoned the submerged house in Gugo village, Calumpit, Bulacan. Unfortunately, rescue workers could only evacuate humans.
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Ww had to wait until the o name to meet the strongest hurricane of the season 2011. Ophelia made it on it's second life.... sounds wrong right?
Philipe strengthening under 30 kt shear???

such an up-side-down season...
What could possibly make it more backwards?....If October produces more hurricanes than September did.And November also get's a hurricane.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17831
Quoting sunlinepr:


Plankton??

Electrifying blue waves luring awe-struck crowds to San Diego beaches
By: Pete Thomas, GrindTV.com Friday, September 30, 2011 12:48pm PDT
By day, a red tide is unsightly and uninviting, with water the color of coffee. But at night, during this unusual phenomenon caused by a plankton bloom, the waves are a brilliant, almost neon blue. This wonderfully surreal scene has played out almost nightly along San Diego beaches for several weeks, luring spectators with cameras and video recorders.

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383. 7544
could we say the best is still yet to come for oct.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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