Ophelia brushing Bermuda; Super Typhoon Nalgae hits the Philippines

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:50 PM GMT on October 01, 2011

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Hurricane Ophelia is steaming northwards to the east of Bermuda as a powerful Category 3 hurricane with 120 mph winds. Radar out of Bermuda shows that rain bands from Ophelia are beginning to affect the island, though as of noon Saturday, the Bermuda airport has reported just one brief rain shower and a peak wind gust of 21 mph. Recent satellite loops show that Ophelia is well-organized, with a prominent eye, good upper-level outflow, and solid lower-level spiral banding. The models agree that Ophelia will track far enough to the east of Bermuda that the island should see sustained winds below 30 mph, since it will be on the weak (left) side of the storm. The 11 am wind probability forecast from NHC gave Bermuda a 19% chance of receiving tropical storm force winds of 39 mph, and no chance of receiving hurricane force winds. Ophelia's closest approach to the island will be late Saturday night through early Sunday morning. Ophelia is likely to bring high winds and heavy rains to Southeast Newfoundland Monday. The 11 am wind probability forecast for Cape Race, Newfoundland gave it a 47% chance of receiving tropical storm force winds, and a 1% chance of hurricane force winds.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Ophelia.

Tropical Storm Philippe no threat to land
In the middle Atlantic, Tropical Storm Philippe continues to struggle against dry air and high wind shear. Satellite loops show Philippe is a small system with little heavy thunderstorm activity, with the surface circulation partially exposed to view by wind shear. Wind shear is a very high 30 - 40 knots, thanks to the upper-level outflow from Ophelia. This shear will remain high through Tuesday, but may relax to the moderate range as Philippe turns towards the north on Wednesday. It is unlikely that Philippe will trouble any land areas.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic, none of the computer models is calling for a new tropical storm to form in the coming seven days (though the NOGAPS model shows a strong tropical disturbance forming in the Western Caribbean in about 7 days, something it has erroneously been predicting frequently during the past few weeks.) The large-scale environment over the Atlantic currently favors sinking air, due to the current phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). This situation will likely last well into next week, and will discourage formation of new tropical storms. The MJO is a 30 - 60 day cycle of thunderstorm activity that affects the tropics.


Figure 2. True-color MODIS image of Typhoon Nalgae approaching the Philippine Islands, taken at 02:15 UTC Friday, September 30, 2011. At the time, Nalgae was a strengthening Category 1 typhoon with 90 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Super Typhoon Nalgae hits the Philippines
Typhoon Nalgae roared ashore over the Philippines' main island of Luzon as a super typhoon with 150 mph winds at 9 am local time this morning. Nalgae dumped heavy rains of 4 - 8 inches across a large swath of Northern Luzon; 4.81" of rain fell on Viganon the northwest coast of Luzon. The capital of Manila received 0.30" of rain from Nalgae, and experienced wind gusts up to 36 mph. Nalgae is the second major typhoon in a week to hit northern Luzon; on Monday, Typhoon Nesat hit the same region as a Category 3 storm with 120 mph winds, killing at least 52 people. Nalgae's rains fell on soils already saturated from Nesat's heavy rains, and the potential exists for high loss of life due to extreme flooding and mudslides. Nalgae is expected to follow a track almost exactly the same as Nesat's, passing near China's Hainan Island on Tuesday, and then hitting northern Vietnam.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


?

What?


??? I got stock in the wording
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NEW BLOG
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:
whoa,
Wouldn't like that slowly heading toward me, Category 1 Rina. With Ridge built over top.






your showing us a black box
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Looks like the Euro cuts off a low from a backdoor cold front and leaves it hangin a few days over the Bahama's next weekend. I wonder if that'll turn into another Andrea?
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
HURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 40
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
1100 AM AST SUN OCT 02 2011

OPHELIA HAS BEGUN TO STEADILY WEAKEN WITH THE EYE NO LONGER
DISCERNIBLE IN VISIBLE OR INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. EARLIER
MICROWAVE DATA INDICATED THAT THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL EYE WAS
TILTED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AND THAT THE EYEWALL WAS OPEN
TO THE SOUTH. BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND RECENT
SATELLITE TRENDS THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS LOWERED TO 95 KT.
OPHELIA WILL BE MOVING OVER MUCH COLDER SSTS WITHIN THE NEXT
12 TO 18 HOURS. THE NEGATIVE OCEANIC CONDITIONS AND INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE RAPID WEAKENING OF THE
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. OPHELIA IS ALSO FORECAST TO
INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL ZONE AND WILL LIKELY BECOME A POST-TROPICAL
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE N
EAR OR JUST AFTER PASSING THE AVALON
PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND ON MONDAY.

what???


?

What?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32877
HURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 40
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
1100 AM AST SUN OCT 02 2011

OPHELIA HAS BEGUN TO STEADILY WEAKEN WITH THE EYE NO LONGER
DISCERNIBLE IN VISIBLE OR INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. EARLIER
MICROWAVE DATA INDICATED THAT THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL EYE WAS
TILTED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AND THAT THE EYEWALL WAS OPEN
TO THE SOUTH. BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND RECENT
SATELLITE TRENDS THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS LOWERED TO 95 KT.
OPHELIA WILL BE MOVING OVER MUCH COLDER SSTS WITHIN THE NEXT
12 TO 18 HOURS. THE NEGATIVE OCEANIC CONDITIONS AND INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE RAPID WEAKENING OF THE
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. OPHELIA IS ALSO FORECAST TO
INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL ZONE AND WILL LIKELY BECOME A POST-TROPICAL
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE N
EAR OR JUST AFTER PASSING THE AVALON
PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND ON MONDAY.

what???
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
HURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 40
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
1100 AM AST SUN OCT 02 2011

OPHELIA HAS BEGUN TO STEADILY WEAKEN WITH THE EYE NO LONGER
DISCERNIBLE IN VISIBLE OR INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. EARLIER
MICROWAVE DATA INDICATED THAT THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL EYE WAS
TILTED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AND THAT THE EYEWALL WAS OPEN
TO THE SOUTH. BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND RECENT
SATELLITE TRENDS THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS LOWERED TO 95 KT.
OPHELIA WILL BE MOVING OVER MUCH COLDER SSTS WITHIN THE NEXT
12 TO 18 HOURS. THE NEGATIVE OCEANIC CONDITIONS AND INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE RAPID WEAKENING OF THE
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. OPHELIA IS ALSO FORECAST TO
INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL ZONE AND WILL LIKELY BECOME A POST-TROPICAL
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE N
EAR OR JUST AFTER PASSING THE AVALON
PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND ON MONDAY.

what??
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
HURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 40
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
1100 AM AST SUN OCT 02 2011

OPHELIA HAS BEGUN TO STEADILY WEAKEN WITH THE EYE NO LONGER
DISCERNIBLE IN VISIBLE OR INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. EARLIER
MICROWAVE DATA INDICATED THAT THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL EYE WAS
TILTED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AND THAT THE EYEWALL WAS OPEN
TO THE SOUTH. BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND RECENT
SATELLITE TRENDS THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS LOWERED TO 95 KT.
OPHELIA WILL BE MOVING OVER MUCH COLDER SSTS WITHIN THE NEXT
12 TO 18 HOURS. THE NEGATIVE OCEANIC CONDITIONS AND INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE RAPID WEAKENING OF THE
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. OPHELIA IS ALSO FORECAST TO
INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL ZONE AND WILL LIKELY BECOME A POST-TROPICAL
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE
NEAR OR JUST AFTER PASSING THE AVALON
PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND ON MONDAY.

what???
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Philippe 11AM Discussion

...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
CONTINUES TO FOLLOW THE MAIN INTENSITY MODELS FOR NOW AND SHOWS THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME RE-STRENGTHENING ON DAYS 3 THROUGH 5.
HOWEVER...IT IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE GFDL...HWRF...AND FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE...ALL OF WHICH INDICATE THAT PHILIPPE WILL BECOME A
SIGNIFICANT HURRICANE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/1500Z 26.3N 51.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 26.5N 53.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 03/1200Z 26.3N 55.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 04/0000Z 26.2N 57.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 04/1200Z 26.3N 59.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 05/1200Z 28.0N 62.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 06/1200Z 30.0N 60.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 07/1200Z 32.5N 56.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

After Ophelia, who knows what he'll pull..
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such an awkward track... :/
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66F with a N breeze,,

O man,, fall always welcomed here.
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whoa,
Wouldn't like that slowly heading toward me, Category 1 Rina. With Ridge built over top.
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It's interesting to note that three of the ten most intense Atlantic hurricanes of all time--including the most intense (Wilma) and the most deadly since 1780 (Mitch) were October storms, and all struck Southwest Florida. Some artwork:

1924 Cuban Hurricane (10/14 - 10/23)
Hurricane path

1998 Hurricane Mitch (10/22 - 11/05)
Hurricane path

2005 Hurricane Wilma (10/15 - 10/26)
Hurricane path
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NOAA- US Cities- Extreme Lows
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Quoting Seflhurricane:
for those of us who live in florida and the NW carribbean this is the worst part of the hurricane season for us especially how the pattern is set up, so hope nothing forms it may very well hit florida
True...And October has produced its share of monster hurricanes.
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The link works... just take the space out from between the 'x' and 't'. :)

http://lwf.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/online/ccd/ex tremelow.html
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467. Skyepony (Mod)
Pic is linked to the RGB Loop.
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It got down into the mid-40s here this morning...that's cold for October standards.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32877
NWS websites are down
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Quoting coganguy:
Any chance that the mid west cool weather(frost on the roofs this morning) is a good indicator that huricane activity is about done for this year?
no but anything forming in the gulf especially the central and northern gulf will be difficult
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for those of us who live in florida and the NW carribbean this is the worst part of the hurricane season for us especially how the pattern is set up, so hope nothing forms it may very well hit florida
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Any chance that the mid west cool weather(frost on the roofs this morning) is a good indicator that huricane activity is about done for this year?
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Spectacular weather here in SE fla !!! looks like we have something brewing just east of Belize and the yucatan peninsula that may be what the models are hinting at for development.
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I'm not sure why, but the page won't come up.
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Trinidad weather now--
Temp 75F
Humidity 100%
Winds S/E 8mph
Pressure 1014.

Coming down heavy and constant.
Big change from yesterday when it was 93 at 10 am with 52% humidity....
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24929
Here's site that has most major cities and the all time record low for each month.
http://lwf.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/online/ccd/ex tremelow.html
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A nice and cool 59 here in north Pinellas County. Well, it was 59 anyway.
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How did I end up Quoting myself? That's interesting.
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Quoting Sfloridacat5:


That's cold.
The all time record low for my area (Ft. Myers) is
27 degrees in 1905.
Actually I found a reading of 24 degrees but I don't know the date. I'll have to try to find it.




The alltime record for Zephyrhills is 12 back in 1978. I think. I'm at work will check that when i get home.
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Quoting Sfloridacat5:


That's cold.
The all time record low for my area (Ft. Myers) is
27 degrees in 1905.
Actually I found a reading of 24 degrees but I don't know the date. I'll have to try to find it.





Actually based on NOAA information the all time record low is 26 degrees.

I think they must be using different locations.
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Quoting FrankZapper:

The Bioluminescence...
That's nice!
One of the prettiest things that I have ever seen is my small children swimming naked at night in luminous water in Tobago.
When they ran out of the sea they were looking like Tinkerbell with green sparkly glowing skin.....
Fantastic!
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24929
Quoting severstorm:

Last year got chilly in Oct. warm in Nov. the got down right cold dec thur mar. My lowest temp this year was 17 on jan.22. I live 40 miles ne of Tampa.


That's cold.
The all time record low for my area (Ft. Myers) is
27 degrees in 1905.
Actually I found a reading of 24 degrees but I don't know the date. I'll have to try to find it.



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Quoting Neapolitan:

Not too far south of you in Naples, it's business as usual for early October: the 10-day forecast calls for highs in the mid- to upper-80s, with lows hovering around 70. In my many years in South Florida, I've never seen the first real cold front--that is, with lows in the 40s--come through until the third week of October, give or take a few days, and I don't see anything on the long-range that will change that.

(The 10-day for Tampa proper doesn't look all that different: a high of 83 today, but in the mid- to upper-80s the rest of the time, and lows around 70 after a few nights in the 60s.)

While much of the east is cool today, the middle part is downright hot: the highs all the way up through Montana and North Dakota today will be around 90. But that blob of warmth shifts eastward through the week bringing moderate temperatures all through the Mississippi Valley. And then a real cold blast starts moving across the country from the Pacific, with temps in the 20s and 30s all throughout the Rockies by next weekend, and, likely, the first widespread chance of measurable snow in the mountain regions. A few samples:

Lander, WY
Today: high 81
Next Sunday: low 38 with snow showers.

Scottsbluff, NE:
Today: high 90
Next Sunday: low 37

Steamboat Springs, CO:
Today: high 73
Next Sunday: low 29 with snow showers

It's coming...


sometimes even later nea... some years it takes till november for a good front to come thru without stalling around sarasota. What's weird is that the front had no real moisture....but was strong. THe casino boat had HUGE swells last night off fort myers beach....lots of sick people!
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Yeah, don't let the some what cooler air fool you (Southern half of Florida).
South Florida is typically quite warm and humid aound Holloween (that's a month from now). I wouldn't expet this year to be any different.
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Quoting DDR:
Morning all
Loooks like la nina is rearing its ugly head here in Trinidad,2.6 inches here since last evening.

Coming down hard here right now, with Rumbles and Squalls.
NICE!
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24929
Good morning all.

The GFS and ECMWF have latched on to the idea of two systems over the next 10 days or so...One is a strong subtropical storm off the southeastern coastline, and the other is the highly advertised Caribbean system.

Rina and Sean would be the names.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32877
Quoting WeatherfanPR:



I hope so because this is just starting.

Last year got chilly in Oct. warm in Nov. the got down right cold dec thur mar. My lowest temp this year was 17 on jan.22. I live 40 miles ne of Tampa.
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Quoting severstorm:

Morning, you will get use to the chilly weather. Looks nice here in tampa all week. highs in the low-mid 80's lows in the 50's to 60's range.

Not too far south of you in Naples, it's business as usual for early October: the 10-day forecast calls for highs in the mid- to upper-80s, with lows hovering around 70. In my many years in South Florida, I've never seen the first real cold front--that is, with lows in the 40s--come through until the third week of October, give or take a few days, and I don't see anything on the long-range that will change that.

(The 10-day for Tampa proper doesn't look all that different: a high of 83 today, but in the mid- to upper-80s the rest of the time, and lows around 70 after a few nights in the 60s.)

While much of the east is cool today, the middle part is downright hot: the highs all the way up through Montana and North Dakota today will be around 90. But that blob of warmth shifts eastward through the week bringing moderate temperatures all through the Mississippi Valley. And then a real cold blast starts moving across the country from the Pacific, with temps in the 20s and 30s all throughout the Rockies by next weekend, and, likely, the first widespread chance of measurable snow in the mountain regions. A few samples:

Lander, WY
Today: high 81
Next Sunday: low 38 with snow showers.

Scottsbluff, NE:
Today: high 90
Next Sunday: low 37

Steamboat Springs, CO:
Today: high 73
Next Sunday: low 29 with snow showers

It's coming...
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Quoting severstorm:

Morning, you will get use to the chilly weather. Looks nice here in tampa all week. highs in the low-mid 80's lows in the 50's to 60's range.



I hope so because this is just starting.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Both the ECMWF and GFS want to develop a strong sub-tropical storm off the Florida East coast by the 11th, and have been showing this solution for a few days.


GFS is not pushing back anymore the timeframe of a Caribbean development.At 00z it begins to develop at 192 hours.Let's see if the Euro follows GFS in next runs.
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35.0n62.1w has been re-evaluated&altered for H.Ophelia's_2Oct_12pmGMT_ATCF
34.8n62.1w, 37.4n61.4w are now the most recent positions
Starting 1Oct_12pmGMT and ending 2Oct_12pmGMT

The 4 southern line-segments represent HurricaneOphelia's path,
the northernmost line-segment is the straightline projection for 2Oct_12pmGMT,
the coastline dumbbell at 45.635n60.493w-YPS is the endpoint of the straightline projection
connected to its nearest airport for the 2Oct_6amGMT*mapping,
and the coastline dumbell at 47.596n58.895w-YJT is the same for the 2Oct_12amGMT*mapping.

Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the
ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 6amGMT then 12pmGMT :
H.Ophelia's travel-speed was 30.5mph(49.1k/h) on a heading of 12.1degrees(NNE)
H.Ophelia was headed toward passage over Otter'sPoint,Newfoundland ~22hours from now

Copy&paste 47.596n58.895w-yjt, 45.635n60.493w-yps, 28.5n63.1w-30.4n62.8w, 30.4n62.8w-32.6n62.4w, 32.6n62.4w-34.8n62.1w, 34.8n62.1w-37.4n61.4w, bda, 34.8n62.1w-47.691n58.036w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info

The previous mapping for 2Oct_6amGMT
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Caribbean waters are hotter than...
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But as mentioned, with the current pattern I think Florida (possibly S.E. coast) is pretty much it for a U.S. threat. I don't see anything moving up into the central gulf coast with this current setup.
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Quoting StormHype:
Fricking burrr in SW FL. 63F at 8:45am here. Goodbye GOM hurricane season 2011.


I wouldn't count it out. Off Shore water temps in the central and southern GOM are in the 80s. And we know the water temps in the Caribbean are in the 80s.

Don't be suprised if there's a tropical storm in the Caribbean in couple weeks threatening Cuba and possibly Florida.
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438. DDR
Morning all
Loooks like la nina is rearing its ugly head here in Trinidad,2.6 inches here since last evening.
Member Since: April 27, 2007 Posts: 14 Comments: 1731
Fricking burrr in SW FL. 63F at 8:45am here. Goodbye GOM hurricane season 2011.
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well the track for the carribean system is uncertain but most likely a north track anywhere from the E. gulf to hispanola need to watch out
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3 runs so far that ECMWF has been showing some sort of weak system developing. GFS has been at it too but mainly in long range.

00Z CMC resembles a bit NGP runs so something might start cooking up next week.
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Its funny how 2011 doesn't get its strongest storm until early October. Lets hope Ophelia really is going to be the strongest storm of the season.
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Quoting WeatherfanPR:
55 degrees at Carrollwood,Tampa and I'm freezing !!!!!

Morning, you will get use to the chilly weather. Looks nice here in tampa all week. highs in the low-mid 80's lows in the 50's to 60's range.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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