Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Ophelia brushing Bermuda; Super Typhoon Nalgae hits the Philippines

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:50 PM GMT on October 01, 2011

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Hurricane Ophelia is steaming northwards to the east of Bermuda as a powerful Category 3 hurricane with 120 mph winds. Radar out of Bermuda shows that rain bands from Ophelia are beginning to affect the island, though as of noon Saturday, the Bermuda airport has reported just one brief rain shower and a peak wind gust of 21 mph. Recent satellite loops show that Ophelia is well-organized, with a prominent eye, good upper-level outflow, and solid lower-level spiral banding. The models agree that Ophelia will track far enough to the east of Bermuda that the island should see sustained winds below 30 mph, since it will be on the weak (left) side of the storm. The 11 am wind probability forecast from NHC gave Bermuda a 19% chance of receiving tropical storm force winds of 39 mph, and no chance of receiving hurricane force winds. Ophelia's closest approach to the island will be late Saturday night through early Sunday morning. Ophelia is likely to bring high winds and heavy rains to Southeast Newfoundland Monday. The 11 am wind probability forecast for Cape Race, Newfoundland gave it a 47% chance of receiving tropical storm force winds, and a 1% chance of hurricane force winds.

Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Ophelia.

Tropical Storm Philippe no threat to land
In the middle Atlantic, Tropical Storm Philippe continues to struggle against dry air and high wind shear. Satellite loops show Philippe is a small system with little heavy thunderstorm activity, with the surface circulation partially exposed to view by wind shear. Wind shear is a very high 30 - 40 knots, thanks to the upper-level outflow from Ophelia. This shear will remain high through Tuesday, but may relax to the moderate range as Philippe turns towards the north on Wednesday. It is unlikely that Philippe will trouble any land areas.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic, none of the computer models is calling for a new tropical storm to form in the coming seven days (though the NOGAPS model shows a strong tropical disturbance forming in the Western Caribbean in about 7 days, something it has erroneously been predicting frequently during the past few weeks.) The large-scale environment over the Atlantic currently favors sinking air, due to the current phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). This situation will likely last well into next week, and will discourage formation of new tropical storms. The MJO is a 30 - 60 day cycle of thunderstorm activity that affects the tropics.

Figure 2. True-color MODIS image of Typhoon Nalgae approaching the Philippine Islands, taken at 02:15 UTC Friday, September 30, 2011. At the time, Nalgae was a strengthening Category 1 typhoon with 90 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Super Typhoon Nalgae hits the Philippines
Typhoon Nalgae roared ashore over the Philippines' main island of Luzon as a super typhoon with 150 mph winds at 9 am local time this morning. Nalgae dumped heavy rains of 4 - 8 inches across a large swath of Northern Luzon; 4.81" of rain fell on Viganon the northwest coast of Luzon. The capital of Manila received 0.30" of rain from Nalgae, and experienced wind gusts up to 36 mph. Nalgae is the second major typhoon in a week to hit northern Luzon; on Monday, Typhoon Nesat hit the same region as a Category 3 storm with 120 mph winds, killing at least 52 people. Nalgae's rains fell on soils already saturated from Nesat's heavy rains, and the potential exists for high loss of life due to extreme flooding and mudslides. Nalgae is expected to follow a track almost exactly the same as Nesat's, passing near China's Hainan Island on Tuesday, and then hitting northern Vietnam.

Jeff Masters

Categories: Hurricane

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451. Buhdog 2:04 PM GMT on October 02, 2011
Quoting Neapolitan: Not too far south of you in Naples, it's business as usual for early October: the 10-day forecast calls for highs in the mid- to upper-80s, with lows hovering around 70. In my many years in South Florida, I've never seen the first real cold front--that is, with lows in the 40s--come through until the third week of October, give or take a few days, and I don't see anything on the long-range that will change that. (The 10-day for Tampa proper doesn't look all that different: a high of 83 today, but in the mid- to upper-80s the rest of the time, and lows around 70 after a few nights in the 60s.) While much of the east is cool today, the middle part is downright hot: the highs all the way up through Montana and North Dakota today will be around 90. But that blob of warmth shifts eastward through the week bringing moderate temperatures all through the Mississippi Valley. And then a real cold blast starts moving across the country from the Pacific, with temps in the 20s and 30s all throughout the Rockies by next weekend, and, likely, the first widespread chance of measurable snow in the mountain regions. A few samples: Lander, WY Today: high 81 Next Sunday: low 38 with snow showers. Scottsbluff, NE: Today: high 90 Next Sunday: low 37 Steamboat Springs, CO: Today: high 73 Next Sunday: low 29 with snow showers It's coming... sometimes even later nea... some years it takes till november for a good front to come thru without stalling around sarasota. What's weird is that the front had no real moisture....but was strong. THe casino boat had HUGE swells last night off fort myers beach....lots of sick people! Member Since: July 30, 2005 Posts: 1 Comments: 950

452. Sfloridacat5 2:04 PM GMT on October 02, 2011
Quoting severstorm: Last year got chilly in Oct. warm in Nov. the got down right cold dec thur mar. My lowest temp this year was 17 on jan.22. I live 40 miles ne of Tampa. That's cold. The all time record low for my area (Ft. Myers) is 27 degrees in 1905. Actually I found a reading of 24 degrees but I don't know the date. I'll have to try to find it. Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 2027

453. pottery 2:07 PM GMT on October 02, 2011
Quoting FrankZapper: The Bioluminescence... That's nice! One of the prettiest things that I have ever seen is my small children swimming naked at night in luminous water in Tobago. When they ran out of the sea they were looking like Tinkerbell with green sparkly glowing skin..... Fantastic! Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20708

454. Sfloridacat5 2:11 PM GMT on October 02, 2011
Quoting Sfloridacat5: That's cold. The all time record low for my area (Ft. Myers) is 27 degrees in 1905. Actually I found a reading of 24 degrees but I don't know the date. I'll have to try to find it. Actually based on NOAA information the all time record low is 26 degrees. I think they must be using different locations. Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 2027

455. severstorm 2:12 PM GMT on October 02, 2011
Quoting Sfloridacat5: That's cold. The all time record low for my area (Ft. Myers) is 27 degrees in 1905. Actually I found a reading of 24 degrees but I don't know the date. I'll have to try to find it. The alltime record for Zephyrhills is 12 back in 1978. I think. I'm at work will check that when i get home. Member Since: November 25, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 916

456. Sfloridacat5 2:12 PM GMT on October 02, 2011
How did I end up Quoting myself? That's interesting. Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 2027

457. Jedkins01 2:13 PM GMT on October 02, 2011
A nice and cool 59 here in north Pinellas County. Well, it was 59 anyway. Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5333

458. Sfloridacat5 2:14 PM GMT on October 02, 2011
Here's site that has most major cities and the all time record low for each month. http://lwf.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/online/ccd/ex tremelow.html Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 2027

459. pottery 2:17 PM GMT on October 02, 2011
Trinidad weather now-- Temp 75F Humidity 100% Winds S/E 8mph Pressure 1014. Coming down heavy and constant. Big change from yesterday when it was 93 at 10 am with 52% humidity.... Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20708

460. Sfloridacat5 2:17 PM GMT on October 02, 2011
I'm not sure why, but the page won't come up. Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 2027

461. Seflhurricane 2:18 PM GMT on October 02, 2011
Spectacular weather here in SE fla !!! looks like we have something brewing just east of Belize and the yucatan peninsula that may be what the models are hinting at for development. Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2898

462. coganguy 2:18 PM GMT on October 02, 2011
Any chance that the mid west cool weather(frost on the roofs this morning) is a good indicator that huricane activity is about done for this year? Member Since: September 14, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 0

463. Seflhurricane 2:19 PM GMT on October 02, 2011
for those of us who live in florida and the NW carribbean this is the worst part of the hurricane season for us especially how the pattern is set up, so hope nothing forms it may very well hit florida Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2898

464. Seflhurricane 2:20 PM GMT on October 02, 2011
Quoting coganguy: Any chance that the mid west cool weather(frost on the roofs this morning) is a good indicator that huricane activity is about done for this year? no but anything forming in the gulf especially the central and northern gulf will be difficult Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2898

465. Seflhurricane 2:21 PM GMT on October 02, 2011
NWS websites are down Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2898

466. TropicalAnalystwx13 2:29 PM GMT on October 02, 2011
It got down into the mid-40s here this morning...that's cold for October standards. Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25330

467. Skyepony (Mod) 2:31 PM GMT on October 02, 2011
Pic is linked to the RGB Loop. Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 144 Comments: 29354

468. SirOutlaw2010 2:31 PM GMT on October 02, 2011
The link works... just take the space out from between the 'x' and 't'. :) http://lwf.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/online/ccd/ex tremelow.html Member Since: June 3, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 8

469. hydrus 2:31 PM GMT on October 02, 2011
Quoting Seflhurricane: for those of us who live in florida and the NW carribbean this is the worst part of the hurricane season for us especially how the pattern is set up, so hope nothing forms it may very well hit florida True...And October has produced its share of monster hurricanes. Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14314

470. SirOutlaw2010 2:33 PM GMT on October 02, 2011
NOAA- US Cities- Extreme Lows Member Since: June 3, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 8

471. Neapolitan 2:47 PM GMT on October 02, 2011
It's interesting to note that three of the ten most intense Atlantic hurricanes of all time--including the most intense (Wilma) and the most deadly since 1780 (Mitch) were October storms, and all struck Southwest Florida. Some artwork: 1924 Cuban Hurricane (10/14 - 10/23) 1998 Hurricane Mitch (10/22 - 11/05) 2005 Hurricane Wilma (10/15 - 10/26) Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 11166

472. HurricaneDean07 2:48 PM GMT on October 02, 2011
whoa, Wouldn't like that slowly heading toward me, Category 1 Rina. With Ridge built over top. Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 39 Comments: 4053

473. Patrap 2:51 PM GMT on October 02, 2011
66F with a N breeze,, O man,, fall always welcomed here. Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111605

474. trHUrrIXC5MMX 2:55 PM GMT on October 02, 2011
such an awkward track... :/ Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 33 Comments: 7933

475. HurrikanEB 2:55 PM GMT on October 02, 2011
Philippe 11AM Discussion ...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO FOLLOW THE MAIN INTENSITY MODELS FOR NOW AND SHOWS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME RE-STRENGTHENING ON DAYS 3 THROUGH 5. HOWEVER...IT IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE GFDL...HWRF...AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE...ALL OF WHICH INDICATE THAT PHILIPPE WILL BECOME A SIGNIFICANT HURRICANE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 26.3N 51.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 26.5N 53.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 26.3N 55.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 04/0000Z 26.2N 57.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 04/1200Z 26.3N 59.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 05/1200Z 28.0N 62.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 06/1200Z 30.0N 60.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 07/1200Z 32.5N 56.0W 50 KT 60 MPH After Ophelia, who knows what he'll pull.. Member Since: May 2, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 1268

476. trHUrrIXC5MMX 3:01 PM GMT on October 02, 2011
HURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 40 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011 1100 AM AST SUN OCT 02 2011 OPHELIA HAS BEGUN TO STEADILY WEAKEN WITH THE EYE NO LONGER DISCERNIBLE IN VISIBLE OR INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. EARLIER MICROWAVE DATA INDICATED THAT THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL EYE WAS TILTED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AND THAT THE EYEWALL WAS OPEN TO THE SOUTH. BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS LOWERED TO 95 KT. OPHELIA WILL BE MOVING OVER MUCH COLDER SSTS WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. THE NEGATIVE OCEANIC CONDITIONS AND INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE RAPID WEAKENING OF THE CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. OPHELIA IS ALSO FORECAST TO INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL ZONE AND WILL LIKELY BECOME A POST-TROPICAL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE NEAR OR JUST AFTER PASSING THE AVALON PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND ON MONDAY. what??? Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 33 Comments: 7933

477. trHUrrIXC5MMX 3:02 PM GMT on October 02, 2011
HURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 40 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011 1100 AM AST SUN OCT 02 2011 OPHELIA HAS BEGUN TO STEADILY WEAKEN WITH THE EYE NO LONGER DISCERNIBLE IN VISIBLE OR INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. EARLIER MICROWAVE DATA INDICATED THAT THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL EYE WAS TILTED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AND THAT THE EYEWALL WAS OPEN TO THE SOUTH. BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS LOWERED TO 95 KT. OPHELIA WILL BE MOVING OVER MUCH COLDER SSTS WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. THE NEGATIVE OCEANIC CONDITIONS AND INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE RAPID WEAKENING OF THE CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. OPHELIA IS ALSO FORECAST TO INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL ZONE AND WILL LIKELY BECOME A POST-TROPICAL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE NEAR OR JUST AFTER PASSING THE AVALON PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND ON MONDAY. what?? Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 33 Comments: 7933

478. trHUrrIXC5MMX 3:05 PM GMT on October 02, 2011
HURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 40 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011 1100 AM AST SUN OCT 02 2011 OPHELIA HAS BEGUN TO STEADILY WEAKEN WITH THE EYE NO LONGER DISCERNIBLE IN VISIBLE OR INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. EARLIER MICROWAVE DATA INDICATED THAT THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL EYE WAS TILTED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AND THAT THE EYEWALL WAS OPEN TO THE SOUTH. BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS LOWERED TO 95 KT. OPHELIA WILL BE MOVING OVER MUCH COLDER SSTS WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. THE NEGATIVE OCEANIC CONDITIONS AND INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE RAPID WEAKENING OF THE CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. OPHELIA IS ALSO FORECAST TO INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL ZONE AND WILL LIKELY BECOME A POST-TROPICAL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE NEAR OR JUST AFTER PASSING THE AVALON PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND ON MONDAY. what??? Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 33 Comments: 7933

479. TropicalAnalystwx13 3:10 PM GMT on October 02, 2011
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX: HURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 40 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011 1100 AM AST SUN OCT 02 2011 OPHELIA HAS BEGUN TO STEADILY WEAKEN WITH THE EYE NO LONGER DISCERNIBLE IN VISIBLE OR INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. EARLIER MICROWAVE DATA INDICATED THAT THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL EYE WAS TILTED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AND THAT THE EYEWALL WAS OPEN TO THE SOUTH. BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS LOWERED TO 95 KT. OPHELIA WILL BE MOVING OVER MUCH COLDER SSTS WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. THE NEGATIVE OCEANIC CONDITIONS AND INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE RAPID WEAKENING OF THE CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. OPHELIA IS ALSO FORECAST TO INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL ZONE AND WILL LIKELY BECOME A POST-TROPICAL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE NEAR OR JUST AFTER PASSING THE AVALON PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND ON MONDAY. what??? ? What? Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25330

480. weatherbro 3:30 PM GMT on October 02, 2011
Looks like the Euro cuts off a low from a backdoor cold front and leaves it hangin a few days over the Bahama's next weekend. I wonder if that'll turn into another Andrea? Member Since: May 26, 2007 Posts: 47 Comments: 1155

481. Tazmanian 3:47 PM GMT on October 02, 2011
Quoting HurricaneDean07: whoa, Wouldn't like that slowly heading toward me, Category 1 Rina. With Ridge built over top. your showing us a black box Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111355

482. interstatelover7165 4:01 PM GMT on October 02, 2011
NEW BLOG Member Since: August 18, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 871

483. trHUrrIXC5MMX 4:08 PM GMT on October 02, 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13: ? What? ??? I got stock in the wording Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 33 Comments: 7933

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