Ophelia regenerates; Typhoon Nesat heads towards China

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 11:39 AM GMT on September 28, 2011

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Ophelia is back as a tropical depression, thanks to a reduction in wind shear that allowed the storm to re-organize yesterday afternoon just east of the Lesser Antilles Islands. Martinique radar shows a large area of concentrated thunderstorms lies about 200 miles to the east of the northern Lesser Antilles, with good spiral banding and rotation. Recent satellite loops show that Ophelia's heavy thunderstorms are not increasing, and are limited in areal extent. The low-level center is partially exposed to view, thanks to strong wind shear. No hurricane hunter flights are scheduled for today.


Figure 1. Morning radar image from the Martinique radar shows the heavy rain showers from Ophelia, just east of the northern Lesser Antilles. Image credit: Meteo-France.

Dry air and moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots are slowing down Ophelia's intensification, and will continue to do so through Thursday. By Friday, wind shear is expected to fall to 10 - 15 knots, and most of the models give strong support to Ophelia intensifying into a hurricane by Saturday. With the models all agreeing on at track for Ophelia just east of Bermuda, Tropical Storm Warnings will probably be required for the island this weekend. Bermuda will be on the left (weak) side of Ophelia, so will miss the storm's strongest winds and heaviest rains. Ophelia may be a threat to Southeast Newfoundland early next week.

In the far eastern Atlantic, Tropical Storm Philippe is headed northwest into the middle of the North Atlantic, and is not expected to trouble and land areas. Wind shear is high enough over Philippe that the storm may dissipate by 4 - 5 days from now.

Typhoon Nesat headed towards China
Typhoon Nesat is headed west towards a landfall on China's Hainan Island on Thursday, and in northern Vietnam just south of Hanoi on Friday. Nesat is a large but disorganized Category 1 storm, and will not have time to strengthen significantly before landfall. However, Nesat is a very wet storm, capable of dropping over a foot of rain in 24 hours, according to latest satellite rainfall forecasts. Nesat roared across Luzon Island in the Philippines Monday as a powerful Category 3 typhoon with 120 mph winds, leaving 20 people dead and severe flooding problems.


Figure 2. Predicted rainfall amounts for the 24 hours ending at 06 UTC on Thursday September 29 show the Nesat is expected to dump over a foot of rain (red colors) along where its southern eyewall tracks. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

Eastern Pacific's Hurricane Hilary steadily weakening
In the Eastern Pacific, Hurricane Hilary has weakened to a Category 1 hurricane with 90 mph winds. Continued weakening will occur over the next few days, and all of the models show Hilary dissipating before reaching the coast. Moisture from Hilary will not reach the U.S.

Jeff Masters

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522. aspectre
2:18 PM GMT on September 29, 2011
Well ain't that the ??? Fell asleep after completion but before posting.
9 hours late, with the "...from now" corrected for the tardiness...

TS.Ophelia's_29Sept__6amGMT_ATCF : Starting 28Sept_6amGMT and ending 29Sept_6amGMT

The 4 eastern line-segments represent TropicalStormOphelia's path,
the westernmost line-segment is the straightline projection for 29Sept_12amGMT.
The AXA dot is used to produce a map-scale showing the northern LesserAntilles as reference points.

Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the
ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 12amGMT then 6amGMT :
TS.Ophelia's travel-speed was 7.2mph(11.5k/h) on a heading of 322.9degrees(NW)
TS.Ophelia was headed toward passage over LastChance,NorthCarolina ~7days21hours from now
(Not shown)

To see the straightline projection, 2 previous straightline projection's endpoints, and other info, copy&paste 34.899n76.319w-12nc, 35.91n75.596w-meo, 18.2n59.6w-18.4n59.8w, 18.4n59.8w-18.8n60.2w, 18.8n60.2w-19.2n60.5w, 19.2n60.5w-19.7n60.9w, axa, 19.2n60.5w-35.444n76.015w, 7w6 into the GreatCircleMapper

The previous mapping for 29Sept_12amGMT
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
521. ChillinInTheKeys
2:03 PM GMT on September 29, 2011
NEW BLOG!!!
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 681
520. Chicklit
1:54 PM GMT on September 29, 2011

Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11348
519. Chicklit
1:50 PM GMT on September 29, 2011
Quoting Hurricyclone:

Looks a little weaker then it did, but cool. :)


Something spun off the coast of Georgia from it I think.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11348
518. PakaSurvivor
1:46 PM GMT on September 29, 2011
Good Morning and just a quick drop by.
Found this in the news today. It's a web-site for individuals that are diabetic, created by a diabetic, for a emergency kit for quick evacuations or sustainment during a natural disaster.

www.med-Ecase.com
Member Since: September 20, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 235
517. wunderweatherman123
1:45 PM GMT on September 29, 2011
Quoting superpete:
That is the Low that emerges off the Colombian coast on about Oct 9th/11th .Could be an interesting track for us here in Cayman, if it materializes.
yeah mixed with monsoonal inflow from the SW carribean. the system will be large and if it builds an anticyclone over itself the high shear in the gulf would have little to no effect on it
Member Since: August 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1724
516. superpete
1:42 PM GMT on September 29, 2011
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
yup, same exact pattern moving wnw stalling off the yucatan huge trough dipping down. you know what happens after that right? ^^^^>>> (northeast)
That is the Low that emerges off the Colombian coast on about Oct 9th/11th .Could be an interesting track for us here in Cayman, if it materializes.
Member Since: October 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 686
514. RitaEvac
1:26 PM GMT on September 29, 2011
USGS CLICK is Shutting Down

Posted on September 28, 2011 by lidar
In a shocking email from the CLICK team at the USGS they just announced that they will be ceasing all operations, except for off-line archiving of data, on October 1. I wanted to get this news out right away while I attempt to find out more about the reasons behind this.

Link
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9630
512. Chicklit
1:23 PM GMT on September 29, 2011
Good morning interesting feature over the central US analyzed by CIMSS.
LinkPersistent Cutoff Low Over the North Central US

LinkWatervaporLoopCentUS
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11348
511. hurricane23
1:23 PM GMT on September 29, 2011
Even though climo suggest something (might) develope in the carib dont put to much stock on 300+ model forecasts.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13804
509. wunderweatherman123
1:09 PM GMT on September 29, 2011
Quoting superpete:
Does the name start with 'W'?
yup, same exact pattern moving wnw stalling off the yucatan huge trough dipping down. you know what happens after that right? ^^^^>>> (northeast)
Member Since: August 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1724
505. superpete
12:58 PM GMT on September 29, 2011
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
both todays 0z and and 6z gfs dropped the SW carribean storm and show a central carribean storm becoming a massive hurricane and stalling off the coast of the yuctan. remind anyone of another storm that did this???...
Does the name start with 'W'?
Member Since: October 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 686
504. biff4ugo
12:57 PM GMT on September 29, 2011
Happy New Year!

Is the Jet finally set up to bring Texas some serious precipitation? It looks that way to me.
Member Since: December 28, 2006 Posts: 115 Comments: 1579
503. wunderweatherman123
12:48 PM GMT on September 29, 2011
both todays 0z and and 6z gfs dropped the SW carribean storm and show a central carribean storm becoming a massive hurricane and stalling off the coast of the yuctan. remind anyone of another storm that did this???...
Member Since: August 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1724
502. Bobbyweather
12:44 PM GMT on September 29, 2011
Quoting capelookout:

And you're following two weak, pathetic storms that have no chance of impacting the U.S.? Can I ask why?

Hey US is not the only country around
Bermuda and Canada can be affected by Ophelia
Member Since: September 7, 2006 Posts: 89 Comments: 2655
498. Neapolitan
12:26 PM GMT on September 29, 2011
Almost there with 60 knots/70 mph:

AL, 16, 2011092912, , BEST, 0, 205N, 616W, 60, 991, TS, 50, NEQ, 50, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 200, 25, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, OPHELIA, M
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13555
496. TropicTraveler
12:17 PM GMT on September 29, 2011
Anyone know how many days Ophelia has been spinning around near Puerto Rico? I don't ever remember a storm staying in one area for such a long time. Is she setting a record?
Member Since: July 24, 2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 927
495. kshipre1
12:12 PM GMT on September 29, 2011
does anyone have any model runs (even though it is obviously too early to forecast anything) for storms in or around the western caribbean around October 13 and after?

just wanted to see if there was a trend starting. the history Florida has with October storms is not good especially with storms curving northeast towards the state

Member Since: July 12, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1130
493. TropicalAnalystwx13
11:56 AM GMT on September 29, 2011
Good bye Cape Verde season.



Good bye blog, may check in at school.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32275
492. islandblow
11:52 AM GMT on September 29, 2011
For dramatic photos of what the tail of Ophelia did to Dominica yesterday check out this site:

http://dominicanewsonline.com/news/all-news/gener al/photos-heavy-rainfall-causes-flooding-across-do minica/

A massive rainstorm swept over the island for the whole day, Wednesday,causing flash flooding and extensive damage to roads and vehicles.
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 60
491. TropicalAnalystwx13
11:42 AM GMT on September 29, 2011
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Has anyone seen Ike lately?

Ike? No, he hasn't been on lately, unless he has been lurking. The last post I saw from him was several months ago.

Ike...? You here...?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32275
490. TropicalAnalystwx13
11:41 AM GMT on September 29, 2011
Well...that was a weird way to start off my morning post, lol.

Tropical Storm Ophelia is looking very healthy despite the moderate wind shear that was analysed over it. We may see a hurricane out of Ophelia as early as tonight, but tomorrow morning is a good bet. 60 mph may be a little too conservative with intensity, I'd go with 65-70 mph, but we'll see what it looks like at 11AM.



Tropical Storm Philippe has been one of the "weird" storms to track this season. Despite the moderate/high wind shear over the system, the storm continues to build deep convection, with the low-level circulation on the southern edge. Wind shear is expected to lower over the coming days, and if Philippe takes advantage of the conditions, we may be talking about a hurricane. However, I'm not so sure it will be able to, and will probably go back up to 50-65 mph or so.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32275
489. stoormfury
11:40 AM GMT on September 29, 2011
apart from ophelia and philippe which are destined for the open atlantic at this time, the remainder of the tropics are very quiet. the western caribbean and the gomex are forecast to increase in activity the next 2 weeks with the return of the MJO to that basin. while the attention will be focused in the gomex and southwest caribbean, the ECWMF is showing a strong distubance to the east of barbados in 10 days time.this is the only model showing this. remember it was the same model which consistently showed the develoment of tomas last october.
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2713
488. GeoffreyWPB
11:38 AM GMT on September 29, 2011
Has anyone seen Ike lately?
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11271
487. TropicalAnalystwx13
11:34 AM GMT on September 29, 2011
Let's not jump StormChaser2007, I understand what he is saying. It has been a weird season this year....a special season.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32275
486. GeoffreyWPB
11:29 AM GMT on September 29, 2011




Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11271
485. Neapolitan
11:29 AM GMT on September 29, 2011
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
90% done with September and the beat of 2011 keeps on going...

Decaying fish

Definitely one of the most anemic seasons I have seen.


Can I take it, then, you weren't around way back in 2009? As of right now, 2011 has already had seven more storms than 2009 did in its entirety, and 2011's ACE surpassed all of 2009's on September 6th of this year. Here's a comparison of stats as of September 29:

2009:
6-2-2
ACE: 42
Deaths: 5
Damage: $45 million

2011:
16-3-2
ACE: 81
Deaths: 102
Damage: c. $17 billion

2011 anemic? Really? By what standard?
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13555
484. islander101010
11:17 AM GMT on September 29, 2011
yr of slow movers
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4728
483. GeoffreyWPB
11:16 AM GMT on September 29, 2011
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11271
482. WxLogic
11:03 AM GMT on September 29, 2011
Good Morning...
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4977
481. weatherh98
11:01 AM GMT on September 29, 2011
what an afternoon yesterday!!!!

Around four o'clock a storm came through the produced very heavy rain crazy lightning and a good bit of hail. As the storm began to leave we saw a funnel cloud... really cool stuff
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
480. Vincent4989
10:56 AM GMT on September 29, 2011
ATL season boring so far, no cat 5 (yet) and all storms looking disorganized. All EPAC storms that took a track perpendicular to the MEX coast was all hurricanes, of which 7/10 of it are major. Most of the WPAC storms look very more organized than the ATL.
Member Since: November 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 728
479. islander101010
10:31 AM GMT on September 29, 2011
Quoting Hurricanes101:


Obviously not taking into account the 10 billion dollars worth of damage that Irene did or the massive amounts of flooding Lee caused in the US and Arlene and Harvey caused in Mexico and Central America.

Obviously

I understand about the lack of hurricanes and all, but in light of those storms that have had huge impacts; anemic to me is not the right choice of words.
its been a dude so far regardless my characters prediction of two more storms in the carib looks like mistake.
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4728
478. JrWeathermanFL
10:30 AM GMT on September 29, 2011
Ophelia might even become a Cat 2. When is the last time a storm dissipated, regenerated, and turned into a hurricane?
Phillipe is back to 45mph I see. If he can hold on to where Ophelia is now, will the favorable conditions still be there?
Member Since: July 19, 2011 Posts: 12 Comments: 2454
477. aislinnpaps
9:52 AM GMT on September 29, 2011
Good morning, those who are up. It looks like Ophelia to be a Cat 1 as it passes to the east of Bermuda.
Member Since: August 22, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3145
476. Hurricanes101
9:46 AM GMT on September 29, 2011
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
90% done with September and the beat of 2011 keeps on going...

Decaying fish

Definitely one of the most anemic seasons I have seen.



Obviously not taking into account the 10 billion dollars worth of damage that Irene did or the massive amounts of flooding Lee caused in the US and Arlene and Harvey caused in Mexico and Central America.

Obviously

I understand about the lack of hurricanes and all, but in light of those storms that have had huge impacts; anemic to me is not the right choice of words.
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7817
475. Bobbyweather
8:59 AM GMT on September 29, 2011
Ophelia is beginning to strengthen, according to NHC, and is on its way to becoming the fourth hurricane of the season.
See NHC Forecast Discussion.
Member Since: September 7, 2006 Posts: 89 Comments: 2655
474. tornadodude
8:51 AM GMT on September 29, 2011
Quoting Seawall:


Done deal.


much better, thank ya much
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
473. tornadodude
7:42 AM GMT on September 29, 2011
Quoting JLPR2:


The US looks pretty tranquil, not much weather anywhere.
But I bet you'll get your storms. XD

Well I'm off to get some sleep, got a class at 10.


haha right on!

take care dude
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
472. JLPR2
7:41 AM GMT on September 29, 2011
Quoting tornadodude:


haha funny

well, not too bad, just wish we'd get some storms haha


The US looks pretty tranquil, not much weather anywhere.
But I bet you'll get your storms. XD

Well I'm off to get some sleep, got a class at 10.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8733

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.