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Typhoon Nesat kills 12 in the Philippines; Ophelia regenerating

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:28 PM GMT on September 27, 2011

Typhoon Nesat roared across Luzon Island in the Philippines last night as a dangerous Category 3 typhoon with 120 mph winds. The typhoon likely dumped 12 - 15 inches of rain along portions of it path, according to satellite rainfall amount forecasts. Flooding and drownings been blamed for at least 12 deaths in the Philippines. We don't have any weather stations on the east coast of Luzon near where the eye came ashore that survived to send us data, but winds at Iba on the west coast of Luzon reached a sustained speed of 67 mph at 5 pm local time today as the eyewall of Nesat moved through. Cabanatuan in Central Luzon received 5.55" inches of rain. The center of Nesat passed well north of the capital of Manila, which received sustained winds of 37 mph, gusting to 55, and 2.74" of rain. Heavy flooding is reported in Manila, where the soils were saturated by heavy seasonal monsoon rains before the arrival of Nesat. Nesat's winds drove a storm surge that smashed through the seawall protecting Manila, and significant storm surge flooding occurred along the shore. Nesat is now a disorganized Category 1 typhoon with 95 mph winds over the South China Sea, and is expected to re-intensify into a Category 2 typhoon before making landfall near China's Hainan Island on Thursday and northern Vietnam on Friday.

Figure 1. Microwave image from NOAA's F-16 satellite showing the estimated rain rate of Typhoon Nesat as it was making landfall on Luzon Island in the Philippines at 6:31 pm EDT Monday, September 26, 2011. Rainfall rates over 1"/hour (orange colors) were occurring in much of the eyewall. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Atlantic update: Ophelia rising again, Philippe no threat
The remains of Tropical Storm Ophelia continue to fester in the Atlantic a few hundred miles east of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, and now appear ready to re-organize into a tropical depression. Martinique radar shows a large area of concentrated thunderstorms lies about 200 miles to the east of the northern Lesser Antilles, though with only a little rotation and very limited spiral banding. Recent satellite loops show that Ophelia may now have a closed surface circulation, and heavy thunderstorms are increasing, though are limited in areal extent. A hurricane hunter aircraft will investigate Ophelia this afternoon at 2 pm to see if a tropical depression has formed.

Figure 2. Morning radar image from the Martinique radar shows the heavy rain showers from Ophelia, just east of the northern Lesser Antilles. Image credit: Meteo-France.

Dry air and moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots are slowing down the regeneration process, and will continue to limit Ophelia's intensification over the next few days. NHC gave Ophelia an 80% chance of regenerating by Thursday in their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, and most of the models give strong support to Ophelia regenerating. I expect Ophelia will be a tropical storm again by Wednesday. A trough of low pressure should steer Ophelia to the northwest and then north over the next five days, with the storm making its closest pass by Bermuda on Saturday. Tropical Storm Warnings may be required for Bermuda this weekend. Ophelia is not a threat to any other land areas, though the storm will bring some heavy rain squalls and wind gusts of 25 - 35 mph to the northern Lesser Antilles Islands today and Wednesday.

In the far eastern Atlantic, Tropical Storm Philippe is headed northwest into the middle of the North Atlantic, and is not expected to trouble and land areas. Wind shear is high enough over Philippe that the storm is unlikely to become a hurricane over the next five days.

Eastern Pacific's Hurricane Hilary slowly weakening
In the Eastern Pacific, Hurricane Hilary has slowly weakened to a Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds. A trough of low pressure is expected to turn Hilary to sharply to the north on Wednesday. Since Hilary will be crossing cool water and encountering increased wind shear, the storm will weaken rapidly beginning Wednesday, and all of the models show Hilary dissipating before reaching the coast.

Figure 3. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Hilary at 4:35 pm EDT September 26, 2011. At the time, Hilary was a Category 3 storm with 130 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Jeff Masters

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:28:00Z 18.533N 60.117W 976.9 mb
(~ 28.85 inHg) 320 meters
(~ 1,050 feet) 1013.4 mb
(~ 29.93 inHg) - From 169° at 5 knots
(From between the SSE and S at ~ 5.8 mph) 22.1°C*
(~ 71.8°F*) -* 6 knots
(~ 6.9 mph) 42 knots
(~ 48.3 mph) 23 mm/hr
(~ 0.91 in/hr) 35.0 knots (~ 40.2 mph)
Tropical Storm
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I've just seen the very last satellite frames. I have to be very honest, I cannot see HOW OPHELIA WOULD MISS THE LEEWARDS.
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Interestingly the HHs are finding really light winds.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8963

satelite images are updated by hour and i see that ophelia is started to rise de convection even more
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Quoting Vincent4989:
Hey, i'm back again. I saw light to moderate chaos near my house due to Nesat. Some of the chaos i saw was a roof blown and a metal billboard scraped. Lucky that i'm safe.

Good to know, Vincent. How is your neighbourhood>
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Quoting 7544:
gfs brings back the strom below cuba long ways out Link
Hmm..Dont like that so much, has the storm in my front garden on the 12th...
Member Since: October 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 738
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:

NOphelia - RGB

That might yet have to be N'(back again)Ophelia
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i have to agree that ophelia its making progress
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Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 22 Comments: 10147
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 22 Comments: 10147

NOphelia - RGB
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HHs are checking the N, NE side and the highest winds found so far are 29mph
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8963
A video about Nesat from ITN News.

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71. 7544
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Cariboy,... my thoughts exactly.
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Quoting reedzone:
Since the center relocated east-southeast of the original center, expect tropical storm warnings for the Leeward Islands when Ophelia is re-classified.

Finally ! :)
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Pretty interesting skies overhead :-) Lots of humidity.. but beautiful blue as well!
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Since the center relocated east-southeast of the original center, expect tropical storm warnings for the Leeward Islands when Ophelia is re-classified.
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Ophelia, tell me when you will stop playing with our nerves lol.
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Quoting serialteg:

is the front or weakness the thing that's NNW of puerto rico thats generating showers and heading SSE?

Those showers are part of the ULL that sheared Ophelia nearly to death.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8963
Since exOphelia's (82.1degrees)eastward center relocation of 159miles(256kilometres) to 18.8n58.6w...

(See the previous mapping for 26Sept_6pmGMT for a more explanatory view and other details)
18.9n59.0w, 19.0n59.4w had been re-evaluated&altered to
19.1n58.9w, 19.4n59.2w, 19.6n59.6w, 19.7n59.9w which in turn were re-evaluated&altered for exOphelia's_12pmGMT_ATCF
18.6n58.8w, 18.6n58.9w, 18.5n59.1w, 18.5n59.3w, 18.5n59.5w are now the most recent positions
Starting with the relocated center of 26Sept_6amGMT and ending 27Sept_12pmGMT

The 5 eastern line-segments represent exOphelia's path.
and the westernmost line-segment is the straightline projection for 27Sept_12pmGMT.

Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the
ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 12pmGMT then 6pmGMT :
exOphelia's travel-speed was 2.2mph(3.5k/h) on a heading of 270degrees(W)
exOphelia was headed toward passage over TheBaths,ViginGorda,BritishVirginIslands.

Copy&paste bbq, 18.8n58.6w-18.6n58.8w, 18.6n58.8w-18.6n58.9w, 18.6n58.9w-18.5n59.1w, 18.5n59.1w-18.5n59.3w, 18.5n59.3w-18.5n59.5w, vij, 18.5n59.3w-18.427n64.44w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info*.

* BBQ is on the map solely as a fix to a peculiarity in the GCMapper's map-scale program.
Delete bbq and you'll see what I mean.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
Finally i think we have a defined LLC.