Typhoon Nesat kills 12 in the Philippines; Ophelia regenerating

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:28 PM GMT on September 27, 2011

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Typhoon Nesat roared across Luzon Island in the Philippines last night as a dangerous Category 3 typhoon with 120 mph winds. The typhoon likely dumped 12 - 15 inches of rain along portions of it path, according to satellite rainfall amount forecasts. Flooding and drownings been blamed for at least 12 deaths in the Philippines. We don't have any weather stations on the east coast of Luzon near where the eye came ashore that survived to send us data, but winds at Iba on the west coast of Luzon reached a sustained speed of 67 mph at 5 pm local time today as the eyewall of Nesat moved through. Cabanatuan in Central Luzon received 5.55" inches of rain. The center of Nesat passed well north of the capital of Manila, which received sustained winds of 37 mph, gusting to 55, and 2.74" of rain. Heavy flooding is reported in Manila, where the soils were saturated by heavy seasonal monsoon rains before the arrival of Nesat. Nesat's winds drove a storm surge that smashed through the seawall protecting Manila, and significant storm surge flooding occurred along the shore. Nesat is now a disorganized Category 1 typhoon with 95 mph winds over the South China Sea, and is expected to re-intensify into a Category 2 typhoon before making landfall near China's Hainan Island on Thursday and northern Vietnam on Friday.


Figure 1. Microwave image from NOAA's F-16 satellite showing the estimated rain rate of Typhoon Nesat as it was making landfall on Luzon Island in the Philippines at 6:31 pm EDT Monday, September 26, 2011. Rainfall rates over 1"/hour (orange colors) were occurring in much of the eyewall. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Atlantic update: Ophelia rising again, Philippe no threat
The remains of Tropical Storm Ophelia continue to fester in the Atlantic a few hundred miles east of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, and now appear ready to re-organize into a tropical depression. Martinique radar shows a large area of concentrated thunderstorms lies about 200 miles to the east of the northern Lesser Antilles, though with only a little rotation and very limited spiral banding. Recent satellite loops show that Ophelia may now have a closed surface circulation, and heavy thunderstorms are increasing, though are limited in areal extent. A hurricane hunter aircraft will investigate Ophelia this afternoon at 2 pm to see if a tropical depression has formed.


Figure 2. Morning radar image from the Martinique radar shows the heavy rain showers from Ophelia, just east of the northern Lesser Antilles. Image credit: Meteo-France.

Dry air and moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots are slowing down the regeneration process, and will continue to limit Ophelia's intensification over the next few days. NHC gave Ophelia an 80% chance of regenerating by Thursday in their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, and most of the models give strong support to Ophelia regenerating. I expect Ophelia will be a tropical storm again by Wednesday. A trough of low pressure should steer Ophelia to the northwest and then north over the next five days, with the storm making its closest pass by Bermuda on Saturday. Tropical Storm Warnings may be required for Bermuda this weekend. Ophelia is not a threat to any other land areas, though the storm will bring some heavy rain squalls and wind gusts of 25 - 35 mph to the northern Lesser Antilles Islands today and Wednesday.

In the far eastern Atlantic, Tropical Storm Philippe is headed northwest into the middle of the North Atlantic, and is not expected to trouble and land areas. Wind shear is high enough over Philippe that the storm is unlikely to become a hurricane over the next five days.

Eastern Pacific's Hurricane Hilary slowly weakening
In the Eastern Pacific, Hurricane Hilary has slowly weakened to a Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds. A trough of low pressure is expected to turn Hilary to sharply to the north on Wednesday. Since Hilary will be crossing cool water and encountering increased wind shear, the storm will weaken rapidly beginning Wednesday, and all of the models show Hilary dissipating before reaching the coast.


Figure 3. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Hilary at 4:35 pm EDT September 26, 2011. At the time, Hilary was a Category 3 storm with 130 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Jeff Masters

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if you reed this message plese say yes i see the message lets see if the blog is a ghost tonw
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134. JLPR2
Quoting BVI:


Do the findings support a tropical depression or storm? Are we likely to have a watch or warning issued in the Virgin Islands?


If the center is really closed then I would say a weak TD.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8483
133. BVI
Quoting JLPR2:


After looking at what the HHs have found so far I would say it is somewhere between 17.9N - 17.3N and 60.3W - 60.8W.


Do the findings support a tropical depression or storm? Are we likely to have a watch or warning issued in the Virgin Islands?
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Quoting Misogynist:
Anyone, is cold dry air heavier than warm moist air? If an air mass had 80% humidity and another had 5% humidity at what temperatures would their weight in the atmosphere be equal?
Yes, dry air is heavier than moist air. That is mainly because dry air is composed more of oxygen molecules, which is a diatomic molecule. That means there are two oxygen's together, which each oxygen atom has 16 g/kg molecular weight, having a total sum of 32 g/kg for each O2. Water vapor has two Hydrogen molecules attached to the oxygen molecule, (H2O). Hydrogen only has a weight of 1 g/kg, therefore water vapor weighs 18 g/kg. So more moisture in the atmosphere means less O2 molecules and more H2O molecules, therefore moist air weighs less than dry air.
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131. JLPR2
Quoting Gearsts:
Where do you think the center is? Im starting to get worried now lol


After looking at what the HHs have found so far I would say it is somewhere between 17.9N - 17.3N and 60.3W - 60.8W.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8483
Quoting JLPR2:


All the models are a little off since the possible LLC is to the south of 18.5N, which was the initialization fed to them.
Where do you think the center is? Im starting to get worried now lol
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Hi all. There are people like me lurking. I can't answer any of your questions so I don't bother. That doesn't mean I am not reading them. I think the people who could answer your questions are not on at the moment. Being near the end of hurricane season in the Atlantic, until something else develops, it will be pretty slow on this blog.
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I think the center is around 16.5N/59.8W, jmo.
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127. JLPR2
Quoting CaribBoy:
Guys take a look a the GFDL solution :

Link



All the models are a little off since the possible LLC is to the south of 18.5N, which was the initialization fed to them.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8483
Some of us must be on the "read but don't answer their questions" mode. Few have answered my questions and they seem not to sign in anymore!
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Guys take a look a the GFDL solution :

Link

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http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/flash-rgb.html

Sorry I haven't figured out how to link images, but I think Philippe's image here looks so "pretty".
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Quoting Gearsts:
Is the blog dead? You are the only 1 posting.


I come on all the time but no one every talks to me.
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Quoting kap333:
Any chance Ophelia might slip below PR and the Windwards and head west?
Dont think so. The high will weaken and slip East to allow her to move wnw away from land.
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119. JLPR2
Seems like the HHs passed to the NE of a possible LLC, minimum pressure was 1009.5mb, but they didn't head west to investigate it further, they are heading NW, away from it.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8483
118. JLPR2
Quoting Gearsts:
Is the blog dead? You are the only 1 posting.


Yeah...
This place is a ghost town half of the time. :\
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8483
Any chance Ophelia might slip below PR and the Windwards and head west?
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Quoting JLPR2:
In other news Hillary looks pretty again. xD

Is the blog dead? You are the only 1 posting.
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Anyone, is cold dry air heavier than warm moist air? If an air mass had 80% humidity and another had 5% humidity at what temperatures would their weight in the atmosphere be equal?
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114. JLPR2
In other news Hillary looks pretty again. xD

Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8483
113. JLPR2
Quoting CaribBoy:


thanks JLPR


You're welcome. :)
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8483
112. JLPR2
Quoting Gearsts:
lol well not that far south. Thats where the deep convection is. She also has outflow boundaries coming out of the north side.


Yeah, some dry air in the area.

HHs are now heading WNW towards the area where the 1009.7mb pressure was found, probably searching for an LLC.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8483
Quoting JLPR2:



Seems right under the convection to me.
lol well not that far south, thats where the deep convection is. She also has outflow boundaries coming out of the north side.
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Quoting JLPR2:


Here

But you need Google Earth to be able to open the file and see the Obs.


thanks JLPR
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109. JLPR2
Quoting CaribBoy:


May I have a link to follow the plane like you do please?


Here

But you need Google Earth to be able to open the file and see the Obs.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8483
108. JLPR2
Quoting Gearsts:
1009mb way south of the big spin that you see on visible loop :/ strange



Seems right under the convection to me.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8483
Quoting JLPR2:
HHs entering an area of stronger winds. Ophelia might be farther south that previously thought.

I wouldn't be surprised at that either.
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Quoting JLPR2:


Hadn't noticed that. The spin farther north had a minimum pressure of 1012mb.

Come to think of it that's probably the remains of the circulation the NHC was following before.
1009mb way south of the big spin that you see on visible loop :/ strange
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Quoting JLPR2:


Hadn't noticed that. yeah. The spin farther north had a minimum pressure of 1012mb.

Come to think of it that's probably the remains of the circulation the NHC was following before.


May I have a link to follow the plane like you do please?
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104. JLPR2
HHs entering an area of stronger winds. Ophelia might be farther south that previously thought.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8483
Quoting stormpetrol:
The further south the HHs fly the lower the pressure

I'm not surprised at that.
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GFDL has come around towards my thinking of a WNW track then a recurve west of Bermuda.. Just makes more sense based on the steering pattern.
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101. JLPR2
Quoting stormpetrol:
The further south the HHs fly the lower the pressure


Hadn't noticed that. The spin farther north had a minimum pressure of 1012mb.

Come to think of it that's probably the remains of the circulation the NHC was following before.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8483
Quoting presslord:


no...she will be classified as a Zombie...

Zombophelia ?
Sounds pretty serious to me.
Is it Terminal?
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The further south the HHs fly the lower the pressure
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98. mks
Heavy rain and Tstorms in Antigua right now with light west winds all day so far.
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If the open spin at 18.6N 60W is actually the real circulation then Ophelia isn't a storm, not even a TD.

Now the HHs are going south, lets see what they find.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8483
Quoting CaribBoy:
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY
INVESTIGATING THE REMNANTS OF OPHELIA LOCATED A SHORT DISTANCE
EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. IF THE AIRCRAFT
FINDS A WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF CIRCULATION...ADVISORIES WILL BE
RE-INITIATED ON THIS SYSTEM LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS DISTURBANCE
IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR SOMEWHAT CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL
REDEVELOPMENT AS THE LOW MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO
NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF REGENERATING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.


NHC is conservative regarding the effects on the islands lol. Maybe due to maria lol
She is at the same lat as the islands it will be very hard for her to hit the islands.
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Since the storm surge is on the right side of a tropical cyclone and Nesat hit north of Manila how did it produce a major storm surge there?
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Quoting TropicalGenesis:
So will Ophelia count as a long lived storm?


no...she will be classified as a Zombie...
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Quoting TropicalGenesis:
So will Ophelia count as a long lived storm?



lol its dead but it will regenarate
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MJO returning to the Atlantic Basin around the 7th:

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So will Ophelia count as a long lived storm?
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AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY
INVESTIGATING THE REMNANTS OF OPHELIA LOCATED A SHORT DISTANCE
EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. IF THE AIRCRAFT
FINDS A WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF CIRCULATION...ADVISORIES WILL BE
RE-INITIATED ON THIS SYSTEM LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS DISTURBANCE
IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR SOMEWHAT CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL
REDEVELOPMENT AS THE LOW MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO
NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF REGENERATING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.


NHC is conservative regarding the effects on the islands lol. Maybe due to maria lol
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000
ABNT20 KNHC 271754
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE SEP 27 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM PHILIPPE...LOCATED ABOUT 750 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS.

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY
INVESTIGATING THE REMNANTS OF OPHELIA LOCATED A SHORT DISTANCE
EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. IF THE AIRCRAFT
FINDS A WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF CIRCULATION...ADVISORIES WILL BE
RE-INITIATED ON THIS SYSTEM LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS DISTURBANCE
IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR SOMEWHAT CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL
REDEVELOPMENT AS THE LOW MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO
NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF REGENERATING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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Quoting JLPR2:
Interestingly the HHs are finding really light winds.


its interesting because the clouds of the ophelia are huge
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Quoting Wariac:
:28:00Z 18.533N 60.117W 976.9 mb
(~ 28.85 inHg) 320 meters
(~ 1,050 feet) 1013.4 mb
(~ 29.93 inHg) - From 169° at 5 knots
(From between the SSE and S at ~ 5.8 mph) 22.1°C*
(~ 71.8°F*) -* 6 knots
(~ 6.9 mph) 42 knots
(~ 48.3 mph) 23 mm/hr
(~ 0.91 in/hr) 35.0 knots (~ 40.2 mph)
Tropical Storm


uhhh? TS?
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Quoting JLPR2:
Interestingly the HHs are finding really light winds.


I think they will stay in Ophelia most of the afternoon just like they did for Irene.
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:28:00Z 18.533N 60.117W 976.9 mb
(~ 28.85 inHg) 320 meters
(~ 1,050 feet) 1013.4 mb
(~ 29.93 inHg) - From 169° at 5 knots
(From between the SSE and S at ~ 5.8 mph) 22.1°C*
(~ 71.8°F*) -* 6 knots
(~ 6.9 mph) 42 knots
(~ 48.3 mph) 23 mm/hr
(~ 0.91 in/hr) 35.0 knots (~ 40.2 mph)
Tropical Storm
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.