Typhoon Nesat kills 12 in the Philippines; Ophelia regenerating

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:28 PM GMT on September 27, 2011

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Typhoon Nesat roared across Luzon Island in the Philippines last night as a dangerous Category 3 typhoon with 120 mph winds. The typhoon likely dumped 12 - 15 inches of rain along portions of it path, according to satellite rainfall amount forecasts. Flooding and drownings been blamed for at least 12 deaths in the Philippines. We don't have any weather stations on the east coast of Luzon near where the eye came ashore that survived to send us data, but winds at Iba on the west coast of Luzon reached a sustained speed of 67 mph at 5 pm local time today as the eyewall of Nesat moved through. Cabanatuan in Central Luzon received 5.55" inches of rain. The center of Nesat passed well north of the capital of Manila, which received sustained winds of 37 mph, gusting to 55, and 2.74" of rain. Heavy flooding is reported in Manila, where the soils were saturated by heavy seasonal monsoon rains before the arrival of Nesat. Nesat's winds drove a storm surge that smashed through the seawall protecting Manila, and significant storm surge flooding occurred along the shore. Nesat is now a disorganized Category 1 typhoon with 95 mph winds over the South China Sea, and is expected to re-intensify into a Category 2 typhoon before making landfall near China's Hainan Island on Thursday and northern Vietnam on Friday.


Figure 1. Microwave image from NOAA's F-16 satellite showing the estimated rain rate of Typhoon Nesat as it was making landfall on Luzon Island in the Philippines at 6:31 pm EDT Monday, September 26, 2011. Rainfall rates over 1"/hour (orange colors) were occurring in much of the eyewall. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Atlantic update: Ophelia rising again, Philippe no threat
The remains of Tropical Storm Ophelia continue to fester in the Atlantic a few hundred miles east of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, and now appear ready to re-organize into a tropical depression. Martinique radar shows a large area of concentrated thunderstorms lies about 200 miles to the east of the northern Lesser Antilles, though with only a little rotation and very limited spiral banding. Recent satellite loops show that Ophelia may now have a closed surface circulation, and heavy thunderstorms are increasing, though are limited in areal extent. A hurricane hunter aircraft will investigate Ophelia this afternoon at 2 pm to see if a tropical depression has formed.


Figure 2. Morning radar image from the Martinique radar shows the heavy rain showers from Ophelia, just east of the northern Lesser Antilles. Image credit: Meteo-France.

Dry air and moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots are slowing down the regeneration process, and will continue to limit Ophelia's intensification over the next few days. NHC gave Ophelia an 80% chance of regenerating by Thursday in their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, and most of the models give strong support to Ophelia regenerating. I expect Ophelia will be a tropical storm again by Wednesday. A trough of low pressure should steer Ophelia to the northwest and then north over the next five days, with the storm making its closest pass by Bermuda on Saturday. Tropical Storm Warnings may be required for Bermuda this weekend. Ophelia is not a threat to any other land areas, though the storm will bring some heavy rain squalls and wind gusts of 25 - 35 mph to the northern Lesser Antilles Islands today and Wednesday.

In the far eastern Atlantic, Tropical Storm Philippe is headed northwest into the middle of the North Atlantic, and is not expected to trouble and land areas. Wind shear is high enough over Philippe that the storm is unlikely to become a hurricane over the next five days.

Eastern Pacific's Hurricane Hilary slowly weakening
In the Eastern Pacific, Hurricane Hilary has slowly weakened to a Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds. A trough of low pressure is expected to turn Hilary to sharply to the north on Wednesday. Since Hilary will be crossing cool water and encountering increased wind shear, the storm will weaken rapidly beginning Wednesday, and all of the models show Hilary dissipating before reaching the coast.


Figure 3. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Hilary at 4:35 pm EDT September 26, 2011. At the time, Hilary was a Category 3 storm with 130 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Jeff Masters

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It was east of the PR trench
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Quoting kwgirl:
Are you saying you want to get into a carbon Fibre ball and get thrown into a tornado? If that is the case, you will need an air supply, make sure the carbon fiber ball can withstand being smashed against something very solid at over 200 MPH. And maybe a GPS tracker so someone can find you when it is over. I would also make sure there is plenty of padding inside so you don't get knocked around.

Yes lots of padding.. and a straight jacket so your arms don't flail about!
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Time: 19:46:00Z
Coordinates: 17.85N 60.4167W
Acft. Static Air Press: 976.2 mb (~ 28.83 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 291 meters (~ 955 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1009.2 mb (~ 29.80 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 304° at 3 knots (From the WNW/NW at ~ 3.4 mph)
Air Temp: 23.5°C (~ 74.3°F)
Dew Pt: 20.1°C (~ 68.2°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 4 knots (~ 4.6 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 2 knots* (~ 2.3 mph*)
SFMR Rain Rate: 0 mm/hr* (~ 0 in/hr*)
(*) Denotes suspect data

probably the coc
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7663
Quoting PolishHurrMaster:
Amazing idea comed to my mind:in the carbon fibre-maded ball straight into EF5 tornado.Which safety concerns I should take with me,when my crazy mind would make this real?
Are you saying you want to get into a carbon Fibre ball and get thrown into a tornado? If that is the case, you will need an air supply, make sure the carbon fiber ball can withstand being smashed against something very solid at over 200 MPH. And maybe a GPS tracker so someone can find you when it is over. I would also make sure there is plenty of padding inside so you don't get knocked around.
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Caribbean Earthquake (known) faults
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Quoting Gearsts:
What hurracane is that in your profile pic?


Felix 2007.
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The HHers are wandering around like drunken sailors trying to find a COC
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Good afternoon, everyone. Just doing my usual "let's see what these guys have to say" rounds. After looking at all these pics and reading your comments, I don't believe we'll be fishing this weekend! I'm thinking we (U.S. Virgin Islands) are in for a bit of a squally time; right?

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Gfs 12z 2 weeks major hurricane apporoaching western cuba..
Member Since: August 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1289
Quoting BVI:


Not right now, sun is shining but we are watching closely what she does. We just had a 4.5 earthquake give us a shake in last 15 minutes



earthquake off 4.5 its big i guess it was the fault that causes the haity earthquake
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Quoting PolishHurrMaster:
Sorry for question mark
But I really want to hear the answer,whatever it will be!


The answer is:

MAYBE!
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Quoting Abacosurf:
I have wanted to surf Cane Garden Bay for 20 years and always get side tracked somewhere else.
i surfed there perfect waves back in 1974 there was a little business on the beach back up in the little bay stanleys i believe that sold lobster dinner my buddy and i were the crowd
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Recon has found a whole page of west winds, indicating that Ophelia has a closed circulation. Winds aren't impressive though at all.
What hurracane is that in your profile pic?
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Wind direction in Barbuda is changing from the NNE. THis means the LLC is developing farther south. This morning was WNW @ Noon NW @ 2PM N and now NNE. HMMMM......
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Quoting PolishHurrMaster:
I'd love to hear the answer to my question?
You'd probably do better on a Midwest related blog which would deal more with tornadoes in general.. Like this one on WU entitled: tornadoes link
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Quoting HuracanTaino:
Who lives in the island close to Ophelia? Woww, what a question ! lots of people, Millions if you include Puerto Rico.



lol
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Quoting BVI:
4.5 earthquake just shook the Virgin Islands
Yep thats the 3 or 4 this month
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167. BVI
Quoting strong2011storm:



ophelia is afecting your area?


Not right now, sun is shining but we are watching closely what she does. We just had a 4.5 earthquake give us a shake in last 15 minutes
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Sorry for question mark
But I really want to hear the answer,whatever it will be!
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Recon has found a whole page of west winds, indicating that Ophelia has a closed circulation. Winds aren't impressive though at all.
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164. BVI
4.5 earthquake just shook the Virgin Islands
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Quoting HuracanTaino:
Who lives in the island close to Ophelia? Woww, what a question ! lots of people, Millions if you include Puerto Rico.
Who lives in the islands? Maybe Tainos from P.R.
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Quoting BVI:


Am in Tortola, British Virgin Islands



ophelia is afecting your area?
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It looks possible but it initiated to far north like all the other models, so I think the island and PR could have a close call.

Quoting CaribBoy:
Guys take a look a the GFDL solution :

Link


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Quoting strong2011storm:



ok
well i have a question who lives in the islands close to ophelia
Who lives in the island close to Ophelia? Woww, what a question ! lots of people, Millions if you include Puerto Rico.
Member Since: May 31, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 814
Quoting Clearwater1:
Wow! Check out what the 18z gfs show way out on day 384, for the Caribbean. Link
Yes, on the 500mb chart it shows a 980mb system. south of Cuba, and in line with the MJO returning.Link
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I'd love to hear the answer to my question?
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Quoting JLPR2:
Looks good, but winds are at weak TD force at best.
There seems to be two areas of circulations, the MLC displace to the northeast and the LLC at the center of the convection.
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Quoting BVI:


Am in Tortola, British Virgin Islands
I have wanted to surf Cane Garden Bay for 20 years and always get side tracked somewhere else.
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Radar shows rain elements moving from the west. Don't know if that circulation is mid-level or surface-based.
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Radar animation from Meteo France. Hmmmmm.
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153. BVI
Quoting strong2011storm:



ok
well i have a question who lives in the islands close to ophelia


Am in Tortola, British Virgin Islands
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Ex Ophelia looks good on satellite. Where would the center of circulation be?

I guess the center of circulation could be displaced to one side somewhere. At a glance Ophelia looks better than she ever did.
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138. TropicTravler: BTW these storms this year are the weirdest I have ever seen, dying, coming to life again, splitting into two or three blobs, getting naked centers, sitting in one place for days, popping up again. Strange! I just hope one of them doesn't turn into a Katrina.

I hope not, Katrina is a bad name. On the subject of the tropics this year, I hope the scientist captured all of the data and have the capability to interpet it correctly. This year was different.
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Quoting SQUAWK:


Nope, can't see your posts.



ok
well i have a question who lives in the islands close to ophelia
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Quoting stormpetrol:
Time: 19:20:30Z
Coordinates: 17.15N 60.9167W
Acft. Static Air Press: 976.6 mb (~ 28.84 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 296 meters (~ 971 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1010.2 mb (~ 29.83 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 280° at 17 knots (From the W at ~ 19.5 mph)
Air Temp: 23.5°C (~ 74.3°F)
Dew Pt: 18.7°C (~ 65.7°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 18 knots (~ 20.7 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 14 knots (~ 16.1 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 0 mm/hr (~ 0 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data
The overall structure looks so good, but if it is that, what they found it shouldn't be classify as a TD.
Member Since: May 31, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 814
148. JLPR2
Looks good, but winds are at weak TD force at best.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8496
Quoting strong2011storm:
anyone sees my posts


Nope, can't see your posts.
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Looks like the Philippines are getting hit again.
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145. JLPR2
Quoting strong2011storm:
anyone sees my posts


Yep.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8496
*would like to make this real
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anyone sees my posts
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Amazing idea comed to my mind:in the carbon fibre-maded ball straight into EF5 tornado.Which safety concerns I should take with me,when my crazy mind would make this real?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Time: 19:20:30Z
Coordinates: 17.15N 60.9167W
Acft. Static Air Press: 976.6 mb (~ 28.84 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 296 meters (~ 971 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1010.2 mb (~ 29.83 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 280° at 17 knots (From the W at ~ 19.5 mph)
Air Temp: 23.5°C (~ 74.3°F)
Dew Pt: 18.7°C (~ 65.7°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 18 knots (~ 20.7 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 14 knots (~ 16.1 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 0 mm/hr (~ 0 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7663
140. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #9
TROPICAL STORM NALGAE (T1119)
3:00 AM JST September 28 2011
================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Nalgae (1002 hPa) located at 19.0N 137.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as almost stationary

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
=================
80 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 19.0N 136.3E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 19.0N 132.6E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
72 HRS: 19.0N 128.0E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
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139. BVI
Quoting JLPR2:


If the center is really closed then I would say a weak TD.


Thanks
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Re: Dead blog and talkers. Seems to me like some people come on line at different times each day. I think for a lot of people this is naptime because it's slow in the late afternoon (I'm on Eastern time at the moment). Once school is out, there will be 15 new people with very long names and recent join dates. But that is also when a lot of people get off work and check in for a while to see what's going on. Lots of time nobody responds but I think we're still having a conversation. If you don't want to talk you can always click on the little plus (if you like a comment) or minus (if you don't). That's a form of feedback also.

BTW these storms this year are the weirdest I have ever seen, dying, coming to life again, splitting into two or three blobs, getting naked centers, sitting in one place for days, popping up again. Strange! I just hope one of them doesn't turn into a Katrina.
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@press.... Tropical Zombie I like it.. an dit would explain why so many storms have headed away from the east coast....no brains!
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Wow! Check out what the 18z gfs show way out on day 384, for the Caribbean. Link
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if you reed this message plese say yes i see the message lets see if the blog is a ghost tonw
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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