Typhoon Nesat kills 12 in the Philippines; Ophelia regenerating

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:28 PM GMT on September 27, 2011

Share this Blog
5
+

Typhoon Nesat roared across Luzon Island in the Philippines last night as a dangerous Category 3 typhoon with 120 mph winds. The typhoon likely dumped 12 - 15 inches of rain along portions of it path, according to satellite rainfall amount forecasts. Flooding and drownings been blamed for at least 12 deaths in the Philippines. We don't have any weather stations on the east coast of Luzon near where the eye came ashore that survived to send us data, but winds at Iba on the west coast of Luzon reached a sustained speed of 67 mph at 5 pm local time today as the eyewall of Nesat moved through. Cabanatuan in Central Luzon received 5.55" inches of rain. The center of Nesat passed well north of the capital of Manila, which received sustained winds of 37 mph, gusting to 55, and 2.74" of rain. Heavy flooding is reported in Manila, where the soils were saturated by heavy seasonal monsoon rains before the arrival of Nesat. Nesat's winds drove a storm surge that smashed through the seawall protecting Manila, and significant storm surge flooding occurred along the shore. Nesat is now a disorganized Category 1 typhoon with 95 mph winds over the South China Sea, and is expected to re-intensify into a Category 2 typhoon before making landfall near China's Hainan Island on Thursday and northern Vietnam on Friday.


Figure 1. Microwave image from NOAA's F-16 satellite showing the estimated rain rate of Typhoon Nesat as it was making landfall on Luzon Island in the Philippines at 6:31 pm EDT Monday, September 26, 2011. Rainfall rates over 1"/hour (orange colors) were occurring in much of the eyewall. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Atlantic update: Ophelia rising again, Philippe no threat
The remains of Tropical Storm Ophelia continue to fester in the Atlantic a few hundred miles east of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, and now appear ready to re-organize into a tropical depression. Martinique radar shows a large area of concentrated thunderstorms lies about 200 miles to the east of the northern Lesser Antilles, though with only a little rotation and very limited spiral banding. Recent satellite loops show that Ophelia may now have a closed surface circulation, and heavy thunderstorms are increasing, though are limited in areal extent. A hurricane hunter aircraft will investigate Ophelia this afternoon at 2 pm to see if a tropical depression has formed.


Figure 2. Morning radar image from the Martinique radar shows the heavy rain showers from Ophelia, just east of the northern Lesser Antilles. Image credit: Meteo-France.

Dry air and moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots are slowing down the regeneration process, and will continue to limit Ophelia's intensification over the next few days. NHC gave Ophelia an 80% chance of regenerating by Thursday in their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, and most of the models give strong support to Ophelia regenerating. I expect Ophelia will be a tropical storm again by Wednesday. A trough of low pressure should steer Ophelia to the northwest and then north over the next five days, with the storm making its closest pass by Bermuda on Saturday. Tropical Storm Warnings may be required for Bermuda this weekend. Ophelia is not a threat to any other land areas, though the storm will bring some heavy rain squalls and wind gusts of 25 - 35 mph to the northern Lesser Antilles Islands today and Wednesday.

In the far eastern Atlantic, Tropical Storm Philippe is headed northwest into the middle of the North Atlantic, and is not expected to trouble and land areas. Wind shear is high enough over Philippe that the storm is unlikely to become a hurricane over the next five days.

Eastern Pacific's Hurricane Hilary slowly weakening
In the Eastern Pacific, Hurricane Hilary has slowly weakened to a Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds. A trough of low pressure is expected to turn Hilary to sharply to the north on Wednesday. Since Hilary will be crossing cool water and encountering increased wind shear, the storm will weaken rapidly beginning Wednesday, and all of the models show Hilary dissipating before reaching the coast.


Figure 3. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Hilary at 4:35 pm EDT September 26, 2011. At the time, Hilary was a Category 3 storm with 130 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 235 - 185

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10Blog Index

Anyways, let's continue watching her... tonight could get even more interesting.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


I seriously doubt their track, especially considering that it is moving WNW.



Not even some TS watches.. they are confident on the track it does seem, but if she refuses to turn...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CaribBoy:
NHC likes the N track, completely discounting the GDFL, NOGPAS and CMC.
I can't believe they would do that to you....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CaribBoy:
NHC likes the N track, completely discounting the GDFL, NOGPAS and CMC.


I seriously doubt their track, especially considering that it is moving WNW.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32080
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Ophelia has become only the second 25 knot tropical depression ever recorded, if I remember correctly. The first was Hurricane Ivan in 2004.


I have seen some tropical depressions at 25 mph, 20 kts. An advisory for hurricane Alberto in 1982 as he died off the SW Florida coast gave him 25 mph winds.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
NHC likes the N track, completely discounting the GDFL, NOGPAS and CMC.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting clwstmchasr:


I think you earn the award for the biggest wishcaster on the blog. At least you are honest about it.


lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Ophelia has become only the second 25 knot tropical depression ever recorded, if I remember correctly. The first was Hurricane Ivan in 2004.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32080
HILARY NOW MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...

2:00 PM PDT Tue Sep 27
Location: 17.1°N 117.1°W
Max sustained: 110 mph
Moving: WNW at 7 mph
Min pressure: 964 mb
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
...OPHELIA REGENERATES INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...

Predicted to become a Category 1 hurricane.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
5:00 PM AST Tue Sep 27
Location: 17.6°N 60.5°W
Max sustained: 30 mph
Moving: WNW at 5 mph
Min pressure: 1008 mb

OPHELIA REGENERATES INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JNCali:

Yes lots of padding.. and a straight jacket so your arms don't flail about!


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CaribBoy:
extrem northern leewards live cam (high speed connection needed)

Link



Lots of seaweed on the beach just like here in Grand Cayman,very breezy and choppy there!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Ophelia upgraded to TD.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Ophelia has regenerated into a tropical depression.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Well, this is Ridiculous!

I have been complaining about low rainfall, and out of nowhere, 25 mins ago the sky turned black, SW winds started to blow, and so far there are 3" of rain in the guage with overhead thunder.....

Coming down in freaking buckets, with all drains overflowing and the cisterns too.

Real nice.

But this has been the pattern...
Long dry spells with occasional torrential stuff from out of nowhere.
This one will probably bring the rainfall total for Sept. back to average.

Weird weather!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CaribBoy:
extrem northern leewards live cam (high speed connection needed)

Link

Your killin' me... I can't wait to get back to the Caribbean for some down time again...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
extrem northern leewards live cam (high speed connection needed)

Link

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Irene and Katia where both Category 2 hurricanes at one point..

I meant peaking at that category.

Maria peaked at Category 1.

Irene peaked at Category 3.

Katia peaked at Category 4.

Ten peaked as a Tropical Depression.

The rest peaked as a Tropical Storm.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32080
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
We've not had a Category 2 hurricane this season, nor a Category 5 hurricane. We've used up all the other Categories. :P


Irene and Katia where both Category 2 hurricanes at one point..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Tropical Storm Nalgae looks like it is being sheared at this present time. However, conditions are expected to improve, and Nalgaue should strengthen over the coming days. By Sunday morning, Nalgae may be bearing down on the Philippines as a Category 2 typhoon in strength.

another one? this time a cat 2? wow. first a cat 3 now a 2. how much more rain will that bring? man philipenes not gettin so lucky
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
i have a major chang comeing too the weather here and CA some good news for the E coast ECMWF and GFS have been show are 1st major rain of the season why the E coast gets too really dry out
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115131
We've not had a Category 2 hurricane this season, nor a Category 5 hurricane. We've used up all the other Categories. :P
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32080
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Thoughts?

The upcoming pattern favors tropical development in the Western Caribbean, because of the MJO returning if not for Climatology means. There have been storms in past years develop from this pattern, and we need to watch it, particularly the first week to 10 days of October.

shear is high in the gulf but i heard strong storms expand their anticyclone to block wind shear. this true? the tracks ALL show a north motion with no runs taking it into central america and mexico
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Tropical Storm Nalgae looks like it is being sheared at this present time. However, conditions are expected to improve, and Nalgaue should strengthen over the coming days. By Sunday morning, Nalgae may be bearing down on the Philippines as a Category 2 typhoon in strength.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32080
ECMWF, GFS, and the CMC all predict that Ophelia will become a hurricane once it gets N of Puerto Rico. This is what I was saying would probably occur given a more favorable upper level environment a few days ago.. similar to Maria.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting islander101010:
still got time for that good luck the rest of the season


thanks dude
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Yeah, advisories should go up, in my opinion. Seems like it has organized well which would mean good conditions abound which could lead to strengthening.

Storms are already starting to fire up stronger in the islands.

Outflow seems to be almost perfect in all directions.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Time: 20:01:00Z
Coordinates: 18.35N 59.7833W
Acft. Static Air Press: 975.9 mb (~ 28.82 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 297 meters (~ 974 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: -
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 208° at 8 knots (From the SSW at ~ 9.2 mph)
Air Temp: 19.9°C* (~ 67.8°F*)
Dew Pt: -*
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 10 knots (~ 11.5 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 44 knots (~ 50.6 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 23 mm/hr (~ 0.91 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CaribBoy:


I see you know me perfectly! Honestly a TS is not much a problem here, however I'd be worried if an intense hurricane was at my door step...
still got time for that good luck the rest of the season
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
any thoughts on the consistency of the gfs showing a hurricane in the carribean?

Thoughts?

The upcoming pattern favors tropical development in the Western Caribbean, because of the MJO returning if not for Climatology means. There have been storms in past years develop from this pattern, and we need to watch it, particularly the first week to 10 days of October.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32080
Quoting Gearsts:
And i bet you liked that right?


I see you know me perfectly! Honestly a TS is not much of a problem here, however I'd be worried if an intense hurricane was at my door step...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I think a special advisory statement is due soon - regardless if a cyclone has formed.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Also by looking at the RGB loop the center seems to be VERY slowly drifting west. They should put ts watch even if is not a ts what matters here is the rain.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
any thoughts on the consistency of the gfs showing a hurricane in the carribean?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting weatherblog:
So... where will Ophelia go?


In my opinion, it will move west-northwest over the next couple of days before a trough turns the storm to the north, and then out to sea, likely just to the west of Bermuda. However, I still think the island will feel impacts (heavy rain, gusty winds, etc. etc.).
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32080
Quoting Drakoen:
The remnants of Ophelia have undoubtedly regenerated into a tropical cyclone. Satellite imagery alone shows vigorous low level spiral bands wrapping up into the system. Surface observations and aircraft recon suggests a well-defined center is present.


Glad we agree (:

lol.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32080
So... where will Ophelia go?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The remnants of Ophelia have undoubtedly regenerated into a tropical cyclone. Satellite imagery alone shows vigorous low level spiral bands wrapping up into the system. Surface observations and aircraft recon suggests a well-defined center is present.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Will that tail north of PR pull her up away for the islands?Also the tail seems to have a small spin lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good afternoon all.

From everything I've been looking at, Ophelia has regenerated into a tropical cyclone, and advisories should be initiated at 5PM. Looks good on satellite presentation, and recon is out there now.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32080
Quoting CaribBoy:
Looks like the islands are more a risk than previously thought.
And i bet you liked that right?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JNCali:
Caribbean Earthquake (known) faults


i am rong lol

well i hope there won`t be no more earthquakes
Member Since: September 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 64
Quoting HuracandelCaribe:
Wind direction in Barbuda is changing from the NNE. THis means the LLC is developing farther south. This morning was WNW @ Noon NW @ 2PM N and now NNE. HMMMM......


Light westerly winds in Antigua. We have had lots of rain and heavy thunderstorms since about midday. I am hoping it doesn't get any worse as my Mother in Law is due to fly back to England today!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Looks like the islands are more a risk than previously thought.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
It was east of the PR trench
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 235 - 185

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.