Typhoon Nesat kills 12 in the Philippines; Ophelia regenerating

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:28 PM GMT on September 27, 2011

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Typhoon Nesat roared across Luzon Island in the Philippines last night as a dangerous Category 3 typhoon with 120 mph winds. The typhoon likely dumped 12 - 15 inches of rain along portions of it path, according to satellite rainfall amount forecasts. Flooding and drownings been blamed for at least 12 deaths in the Philippines. We don't have any weather stations on the east coast of Luzon near where the eye came ashore that survived to send us data, but winds at Iba on the west coast of Luzon reached a sustained speed of 67 mph at 5 pm local time today as the eyewall of Nesat moved through. Cabanatuan in Central Luzon received 5.55" inches of rain. The center of Nesat passed well north of the capital of Manila, which received sustained winds of 37 mph, gusting to 55, and 2.74" of rain. Heavy flooding is reported in Manila, where the soils were saturated by heavy seasonal monsoon rains before the arrival of Nesat. Nesat's winds drove a storm surge that smashed through the seawall protecting Manila, and significant storm surge flooding occurred along the shore. Nesat is now a disorganized Category 1 typhoon with 95 mph winds over the South China Sea, and is expected to re-intensify into a Category 2 typhoon before making landfall near China's Hainan Island on Thursday and northern Vietnam on Friday.


Figure 1. Microwave image from NOAA's F-16 satellite showing the estimated rain rate of Typhoon Nesat as it was making landfall on Luzon Island in the Philippines at 6:31 pm EDT Monday, September 26, 2011. Rainfall rates over 1"/hour (orange colors) were occurring in much of the eyewall. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Atlantic update: Ophelia rising again, Philippe no threat
The remains of Tropical Storm Ophelia continue to fester in the Atlantic a few hundred miles east of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, and now appear ready to re-organize into a tropical depression. Martinique radar shows a large area of concentrated thunderstorms lies about 200 miles to the east of the northern Lesser Antilles, though with only a little rotation and very limited spiral banding. Recent satellite loops show that Ophelia may now have a closed surface circulation, and heavy thunderstorms are increasing, though are limited in areal extent. A hurricane hunter aircraft will investigate Ophelia this afternoon at 2 pm to see if a tropical depression has formed.


Figure 2. Morning radar image from the Martinique radar shows the heavy rain showers from Ophelia, just east of the northern Lesser Antilles. Image credit: Meteo-France.

Dry air and moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots are slowing down the regeneration process, and will continue to limit Ophelia's intensification over the next few days. NHC gave Ophelia an 80% chance of regenerating by Thursday in their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, and most of the models give strong support to Ophelia regenerating. I expect Ophelia will be a tropical storm again by Wednesday. A trough of low pressure should steer Ophelia to the northwest and then north over the next five days, with the storm making its closest pass by Bermuda on Saturday. Tropical Storm Warnings may be required for Bermuda this weekend. Ophelia is not a threat to any other land areas, though the storm will bring some heavy rain squalls and wind gusts of 25 - 35 mph to the northern Lesser Antilles Islands today and Wednesday.

In the far eastern Atlantic, Tropical Storm Philippe is headed northwest into the middle of the North Atlantic, and is not expected to trouble and land areas. Wind shear is high enough over Philippe that the storm is unlikely to become a hurricane over the next five days.

Eastern Pacific's Hurricane Hilary slowly weakening
In the Eastern Pacific, Hurricane Hilary has slowly weakened to a Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds. A trough of low pressure is expected to turn Hilary to sharply to the north on Wednesday. Since Hilary will be crossing cool water and encountering increased wind shear, the storm will weaken rapidly beginning Wednesday, and all of the models show Hilary dissipating before reaching the coast.


Figure 3. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Hilary at 4:35 pm EDT September 26, 2011. At the time, Hilary was a Category 3 storm with 130 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Jeff Masters

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The hurricane season for the GOM is ending.

My Grandmother would say " Jesus, Mary, and Joseph".
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I see Ophelia decided to get dressed again. And I too am not buying the NHC track in the near term. Yes, she'll make the turn, but not that quickly.
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Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30251
Quoting Frankie1984:
Hurricane Ophelia will Make a Direct Hit in Nova Scotia as a Category 3 hurricane and it will be much worse than Hurricane Juan when Hurricane Juan Peaked at Category 2 and made landfall in Halifax Nova Scotia as a Category 2 Hurricane on September 30, 2003. then in February 2004 Halifax had a Mega Blizzard is the White Juan and it Brought 95cm of snow in one day. Halifax had to Declare the State of the Emergency and it was the Worst Blizzard from year 2000 to year 2009. On December 26, 2004 Indonesia had a 9.0 Magnitude Earthquake and it Brought the Tsunami across the Indian Ocean and it killed over 200,000 people at once.
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And again everyone forgot about my interesting post. Nr.244,please answer and release me from this!
Member Since: May 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 351
Quoting jascott1967:


Guess it's just our turn.
I believe this is needed damn nature you scary!
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Quoting BDADUDE:
Looks similiar to me!!


she is a Maria clone same spot!
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Looks similar to me, except it's 200 miles to the south and the intensity is way off. Other than that, identical! XD

Yep..Twins.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30251
Quoting BDADUDE:
I'm afraid that it is dude.

BUTTTTTTTTTTT its not.

Seriously, I wish you would stop comparing every single storm to Hurricane Katia. Ophelia is SEVERAL hundred miles to the south of where Katia was at this point.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30251
ophelia like katia has a possibility of hit england.

but look at philipe shear will dissipate it?


ophelia could intensify to a major category and go to sea
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Quoting Hurricyclone:

Why won't Mother Nature give you guys a break?


Guess it's just our turn.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Sorry, but its not.

Looks similar to me, except it's 200 miles to the south and the intensity is way off. Other than that, identical! XD
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5521
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Sorry, but its not.
I'm afraid that it is dude.
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Quoting BDADUDE:
Looks similiar to me!!
Yes mkkkkaaay only. 200-300 miles different lol!
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The drought is about to claim yet more of Houston's green - this time $4.5 million in tax dollars to remove trees that have died of thirst.

Houston's driest year on record has prompted City Hall to mandate lawn-watering restrictions, hire extra crews to fix water main breaks, ban barbecuing and smoking in city parks and call for park visitors to bring rakes with them to help municipal employees scoop up pine needles and other dead vegetation.

The drought's length and intensity have become so acute the city has to throw unbudgeted money at it. City Council on Wednesday is scheduled to consider a request by the Parks and Recreation Department for $4.5 million to remove 15,000 dead trees from city parks and esplanades, an amount nearly 13 times what the city spends dragging away dead trees in an average year.

That's more money than the city will spend buying police cars this year, more than it will spend buying fire trucks and other department vehicles. Or enough to bring about 80 laid-off librarians, parks employees and other city workers back on the payroll.

Like a slow hurricane

Tree casualty projections across the eight-county Houston area run as high as 66 million by the nonprofit Trees for Houston. The city will be removing only those on city public land.

"Droughts are like a Category 3 hurricane that moves very, very, very slow," said Tom Combs, vice president of the Texas region for DRC Emergency Services, the Mobile, Ala.-based company that would get the work if the spending is approved Wednesday. DRC is the city's disaster debris contractor. Combs said he does not know how many trees the company removed in the wake of Ike, only that DRC carted away 5 million cubic yards of debris, some from public land, some from private.

"Fifteen-thousand trees, no matter how you cut it, is a lot of trees," he said.

In a report to City Council last week, the parks director said his staff already had identified 9,330 dead trees in city parks and rights of way. The department estimates thousands more are inside forested areas that cannot easily be seen and counted.

"It's way worse than what Ike did," said Michael Merritt, the Texas Forest Service's bayou region urban forestry coordinator. "It's killing trees left and right."

'A catastrophic level'

Ike killed trees with wind. Perimeter trees took the brunt of the hurricane's force and served as a buffer for interior trees. Drought penetrates the core of forested areas, Merritt said. Even if the drought ended today, he said, the city will continue to lose trees that already have been weakened beyond recovery. Not only do trees wither from lack of water, but in their weakened state they are particularly vulnerable to pine beetle infestations.

"Dead and diseased trees have risen to a catastrophic level," according to the request for council action from the Parks and Recreation Department. The dead trees, the request states, pose a "threat to the health and safety of the citizens."

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Quoting Hurricyclone:

Hope it curves above you.
You guys got enough rain.
And what you said a few days ago..

"Let Ophelia do whatever the hell it wants!"
(or something like that)
True dat.

So far, my forecast for Ophelia has been spot on.
My Forecast(repost):
Days 1-7: Ophelia will do whatever the hell she wants.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5521
Quoting BDADUDE:
Looks similiar to me!!


Sorry, but its not.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30251
Fuel to burn this fall in Houston





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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Sorry, but its not.



Looks similiar to me!!
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Quoting washingtonian115:
I don't think so.A minimal hurricane is likley.Maybe that of Maria's intensity.80mph.

Why not?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30251
Quoting BDADUDE:
Ophelia still following a Katia type track. I believe it will pass Between the American coast and the Bermudian coast.

Sorry, but its not.



Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30251
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I think Ophelia has a good potential to over achieve the NHC's predicted intensity. Shear is only moderate right now, and should lower over the coming days. Low shear, warm SSTs, moist...rapid intensification possible?
I don't think so.A minimal hurricane is likley.Maybe that of Maria's intensity.80mph.
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Ophelia still following a Katia type track. I believe it will pass Between the American coast and the Bermudian coast.
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Quoting Frankie1984:
Hurricane Ophelia will Make a Direct Hit in Nova Scotia as a Category 3 hurricane and it will be much worse than Hurricane Juan when Hurricane Juan Peaked at Category 2 and made landfall in Halifax Nova Scotia as a Category 2 Hurricane on September 30, 2003. then in February 2004 Halifax had a Mega Blizzard is the White Juan and it Brought 95cm of snow in one day. Halifax had to Declare the State of the Emergency and it was the Worst Blizzard from year 2000 to year 2009. On December 26, 2004 Indonesia had a 9.0 Magnitude Earthquake and it Brought the Tsunami across the Indian Ocean and it killed over 200,000 people at once.


It will only happen if you say BET ON IT!
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And the heat goes on.........the heat goes on...

Port of Houston, Houston, Texas (PWS)
100 °F Scattered Clouds
Humidity: 43%
Dew Point: 73 °F
Wind: 5.0 mphfrom the SW
Wind Gust: 5.0 mph
Pressure: 29.77 in (Steady)
Heat Index: 112 °F

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


yes, Ophelia is Ophelia. :D
And sh just won't quit.Ophelia will be one of the most remembered O storm in recent history for never going away.
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Rain falling on burnt ash drought stone hard cracked grounds in Bastrop

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Link

Houston, TX

City needs $4.5M for dead trees

"Droughts are like a Category 3 hurricane that moves very, very, very slow," said Tom Combs
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Quoting Thrawst:


Didn't hurricane Wilma start as a 25 knot depression? :O

Yeah, apparently it happens more than I thought. :P
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30251
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Good Afternoon. I see Ophelia is Ophelia.


yes, Ophelia is Ophelia. :D
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30251
251. Frankie1984
9:39 PM GMT on September 27, 2011
Hurricane Ophelia will Make a Direct Hit in Nova Scotia as a Category 3 hurricane and it will be much worse than Hurricane Juan when Hurricane Juan Peaked at Category 2 and made landfall in Halifax Nova Scotia as a Category 2 Hurricane on September 30, 2003. then in February 2004 Halifax had a Mega Blizzard is the White Juan and it Brought 95cm of snow in one day. Halifax had to Declare the State of the Emergency and it was the Worst Blizzard from year 2000 to year 2009. On December 26, 2004 Indonesia had a 9.0 Magnitude Earthquake and it Brought the Tsunami across the Indian Ocean and it killed over 200,000 people at once.
Member Since: August 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5
250. stormpetrol
9:37 PM GMT on September 27, 2011
Meanwhile Ophelia continues to slowly move toward the Northern Leewards!
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249. Thrawst
9:34 PM GMT on September 27, 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Ophelia has become only the second 25 knot tropical depression ever recorded, if I remember correctly. The first was Hurricane Ivan in 2004.


Didn't hurricane Wilma start as a 25 knot depression? :O
Member Since: July 18, 2010 Posts: 50 Comments: 1729
248. WeatherNerdPR
9:33 PM GMT on September 27, 2011
Good Afternoon. I see Ophelia is Ophelia.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5521
247. TropicalAnalystwx13
9:25 PM GMT on September 27, 2011
I think Ophelia has a good potential to over achieve the NHC's predicted intensity. Shear is only moderate right now, and should lower over the coming days. Low shear, warm SSTs, moist...rapid intensification possible?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30251
246. 12george1
9:23 PM GMT on September 27, 2011
Quoting Hurricyclone:

You would hate the 1999 season then...
full of only 4's and 2's

2007 was only 1's and 5's
Member Since: August 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 244
245. ColoradoBob1
9:22 PM GMT on September 27, 2011
The temp dropped below 32 on Saturday in Barrow, AK for the first time since June 29th. 85-day streak > 32 is longest on record! Previous record 68 days. The average temperature over the streak was 41.9°. The September average temp has been 5.2 degrees above normal.

Average first freeze is September 7th in Fairbanks - have not had a freeze yet. This is the 6th year in a row the first freeze has taken place after September 20th.


http://www.startribune.com/blogs/130529403.html
Member Since: August 13, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1395
244. PolishHurrMaster
9:21 PM GMT on September 27, 2011
OK.I've received the first answer of my imagined "tornado flight".But next questions are coming:
1.Which attitude I'd reach in the ball?
2.What are my chances to survive?
3.What I'd see at the peak attitude?
4.Is it possible to do an on-board record of whole flight?
5.Which range of G-forces I'd experience?
6.How much distance I'd make in a ball?
7.Finally,what with me when I'd crash somewhere
I know I made a good FAQ section for something that might be"Tornado Flyers Ltd.",but I wanna know the answers for all these questions
Member Since: May 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 351
243. junie1
9:21 PM GMT on September 27, 2011
Quoting CaribBoy:
Anyways, let's continue watching her... tonight could get even more interesting.


I love the NHC but this track is hard to take serious while there are other models saying something completely
diffrent we shall see i wouldnt take my eyes off her until she is gone
Member Since: July 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 82
241. pottery
9:13 PM GMT on September 27, 2011
Quoting mossyhead:
Where are you?

Trinidad, 11n 61w (aprox)
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240. mossyhead
9:07 PM GMT on September 27, 2011
Quoting pottery:
Well, this is Ridiculous!

I have been complaining about low rainfall, and out of nowhere, 25 mins ago the sky turned black, SW winds started to blow, and so far there are 3" of rain in the guage with overhead thunder.....

Coming down in freaking buckets, with all drains overflowing and the cisterns too.

Real nice.

But this has been the pattern...
Long dry spells with occasional torrential stuff from out of nowhere.
This one will probably bring the rainfall total for Sept. back to average.

Weird weather!
Where are you?
Member Since: July 7, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 473
239. HuracanTaino
9:04 PM GMT on September 27, 2011
Quoting Abacosurf:
I can't believe they would do that to you....
Or to me , but I still have hope it continues her actual movement, we just need a little jog to the west and is upon us.. . will see :)
Member Since: May 31, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 769
238. MiamiHurricanes09
9:02 PM GMT on September 27, 2011
Quick update on Ophelia. Feel free to check it out.

Blog Update

Special Tropical Update: September 27, 2011 (5:00p.m EDT)
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
237. CaribBoy
9:02 PM GMT on September 27, 2011
Quoting clwstmchasr:


This has been a tough one to forecast. The GFDL is a great model but has been an outlier all year.


sure
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5589
235. CaribBoy
8:58 PM GMT on September 27, 2011
Anyways, let's continue watching her... tonight could get even more interesting.
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5589

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.