Typhoon Nesat kills 12 in the Philippines; Ophelia regenerating

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:28 PM GMT on September 27, 2011

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Typhoon Nesat roared across Luzon Island in the Philippines last night as a dangerous Category 3 typhoon with 120 mph winds. The typhoon likely dumped 12 - 15 inches of rain along portions of it path, according to satellite rainfall amount forecasts. Flooding and drownings been blamed for at least 12 deaths in the Philippines. We don't have any weather stations on the east coast of Luzon near where the eye came ashore that survived to send us data, but winds at Iba on the west coast of Luzon reached a sustained speed of 67 mph at 5 pm local time today as the eyewall of Nesat moved through. Cabanatuan in Central Luzon received 5.55" inches of rain. The center of Nesat passed well north of the capital of Manila, which received sustained winds of 37 mph, gusting to 55, and 2.74" of rain. Heavy flooding is reported in Manila, where the soils were saturated by heavy seasonal monsoon rains before the arrival of Nesat. Nesat's winds drove a storm surge that smashed through the seawall protecting Manila, and significant storm surge flooding occurred along the shore. Nesat is now a disorganized Category 1 typhoon with 95 mph winds over the South China Sea, and is expected to re-intensify into a Category 2 typhoon before making landfall near China's Hainan Island on Thursday and northern Vietnam on Friday.


Figure 1. Microwave image from NOAA's F-16 satellite showing the estimated rain rate of Typhoon Nesat as it was making landfall on Luzon Island in the Philippines at 6:31 pm EDT Monday, September 26, 2011. Rainfall rates over 1"/hour (orange colors) were occurring in much of the eyewall. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Atlantic update: Ophelia rising again, Philippe no threat
The remains of Tropical Storm Ophelia continue to fester in the Atlantic a few hundred miles east of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, and now appear ready to re-organize into a tropical depression. Martinique radar shows a large area of concentrated thunderstorms lies about 200 miles to the east of the northern Lesser Antilles, though with only a little rotation and very limited spiral banding. Recent satellite loops show that Ophelia may now have a closed surface circulation, and heavy thunderstorms are increasing, though are limited in areal extent. A hurricane hunter aircraft will investigate Ophelia this afternoon at 2 pm to see if a tropical depression has formed.


Figure 2. Morning radar image from the Martinique radar shows the heavy rain showers from Ophelia, just east of the northern Lesser Antilles. Image credit: Meteo-France.

Dry air and moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots are slowing down the regeneration process, and will continue to limit Ophelia's intensification over the next few days. NHC gave Ophelia an 80% chance of regenerating by Thursday in their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, and most of the models give strong support to Ophelia regenerating. I expect Ophelia will be a tropical storm again by Wednesday. A trough of low pressure should steer Ophelia to the northwest and then north over the next five days, with the storm making its closest pass by Bermuda on Saturday. Tropical Storm Warnings may be required for Bermuda this weekend. Ophelia is not a threat to any other land areas, though the storm will bring some heavy rain squalls and wind gusts of 25 - 35 mph to the northern Lesser Antilles Islands today and Wednesday.

In the far eastern Atlantic, Tropical Storm Philippe is headed northwest into the middle of the North Atlantic, and is not expected to trouble and land areas. Wind shear is high enough over Philippe that the storm is unlikely to become a hurricane over the next five days.

Eastern Pacific's Hurricane Hilary slowly weakening
In the Eastern Pacific, Hurricane Hilary has slowly weakened to a Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds. A trough of low pressure is expected to turn Hilary to sharply to the north on Wednesday. Since Hilary will be crossing cool water and encountering increased wind shear, the storm will weaken rapidly beginning Wednesday, and all of the models show Hilary dissipating before reaching the coast.


Figure 3. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Hilary at 4:35 pm EDT September 26, 2011. At the time, Hilary was a Category 3 storm with 130 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting BDADUDE:


???
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31919
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Quoting CaribBoy:
NHC is following the GFS...
It's more of a combination of including the GFS along with a hundred other factors. Sort of what some here do, except with their resources and knowledge the NHC is about 1000 times better at it then anyone here is.
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Yeah, I hope Ophelia misses the islands and heads into the ocean.
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Quoting stormpetrol:
Convection from Ophelia is gradually tracking toward/and into the Northern Antilles, that can't be denied!
And so is her COC, for how long? Don't know. That's what should be of concerned for the NHC, that haven't put up TS Watches or warnings..
Member Since: May 31, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 852
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
via StormCarib

Antigua

by "eliantigua"
Date: Tue, 27 Sep 2011 18:04:12 -0400

Wow! After lunch today things got exciting in Antigua with torrents of rain, some crazy lightning, dog terrifying thunder and even a 4.5 earthquake! As u can see in the image, things settled down just in time for sunset and the NHC report that the storm regenerated into a depression practically on top of us. Thankfully its 4cast to go north. Hopefully soon as I have had a fishing plan for tomorrow.

www.adventureantigua.com

Attachment: IMAG1350.jpg

LOL i'm Antigua and the weather was pretty bad today lol and i didnt even know there was an earthquake :p
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Quoting stormpetrol:
Convection from Ophelia is gradually tracking toward/and into the Northern Antilles, that can't be denied!
. Obviously, with all the convection and worst weather south east of the islands, they should a least put TSW, to the eastern most Leewards, since the center is so close to them and is sliding westward...
Member Since: May 31, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 852
via StormCarib

Antigua

by "eliantigua"
Date: Tue, 27 Sep 2011 18:04:12 -0400

Wow! After lunch today things got exciting in Antigua with torrents of rain, some crazy lightning, dog terrifying thunder and even a 4.5 earthquake! As u can see in the image, things settled down just in time for sunset and the NHC report that the storm regenerated into a depression practically on top of us. Thankfully its 4cast to go north. Hopefully soon as I have had a fishing plan for tomorrow.

www.adventureantigua.com

Attachment: IMAG1350.jpg

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Quoting biowizard:
Frankly, Ophelia never went away. It's weird reading JM's bloggs, in a timezone some 5 or more hours away from UTC, when tropical events are written off as "dead", while NOAA's satellite images are showing seriously well formed storm cells!

Tonight (UK time), Ophelia is looking like a very nicely formed little storm on the sat pics, and I'm only glad the storm is heading NW, rather than W, thereby sparing the Windwards yet another major dowsing!

Brian
too late:(
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Quoting Tazmanian:




grrrrrrrrrrrr
lol. sorry again. couldnt resist.
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Quoting stormpetrol:
Convection from Ophelia is gradually tracking toward/and into the Northern Antilles, that can't be denied!
Has been raining here for about 9 hours with very intense thunder and lightning :(
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323. JLPR2
Quoting stormpetrol:
Link

Can't see anything , but you can hear its a nasty night here!


Sounds rather windy.
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Link

Can't see anything , but you can hear its a nasty night here!
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7862
Frankly, Ophelia never went away. It's weird reading JM's bloggs, in a timezone some 5 or more hours away from UTC, when tropical events are written off as "dead", while NOAA's satellite images are showing seriously well formed storm cells!

Tonight (UK time), Ophelia is looking like a very nicely formed little storm on the sat pics, and I'm only glad the storm is heading NW, rather than W, thereby sparing the Windwards yet another major dowsing!

Brian
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Convection from Ophelia is gradually tracking toward/and into the Northern Antilles, that can't be denied!
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7862
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NHC is following the GFS...
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6164
Quoting BDADUDE:
Has Taz been banned?




grrrrrrrrrrrr
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
...??
Hello...????


idk :\
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31919
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Don't bet against the NHC's track. You'll be wrong!
Agreed.
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Quoting StormHype:


Just looked at these model runs. That is actually 15-17 days out. There is no 'danger zone'. If this shows up with 120 hours of T0, then we can only consider using those terms.
normally i start to pay attention to models once at 144 hrs or less 120 get a little interesting 96 even more 72 a concearn 48 sure thing 24 impending event
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Don't bet against the NHC's track. You'll be wrong!
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Quoting Hurricyclone:

Why won't Mother Nature give you guys a break?
We have the extreme heat due to the extreme drought, no ground moisture at all. I have storms all around me now with no rain and 30 percent humidity, alot of the rain is not reaching the ground, i still have not had a drop today or since June 22. Today was day 88 in Austin of 100 or greater, old record was 69. San Angelo hit 100 today for the 100th time this year, old record was 60 days. At least we have clouds today but it still hit 100. Stronger front coming thru should drop us into the 90s which is still above average. I would love 6 to 8 months of below average temps since i have had like a year of above to way above average temps. Bastrop did get a little rain today so that fire should be about history.
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Quoting wunderweatherman123:
18z gfs again hurricane over cuba and bahamas. so i think now since the model got the idea back today and tomorrow show a hurricane in almost every run, it safe to say 8 to 10 days a td will try to form in the SW carribean and will either move into the eastern gulf or as far east as hati. the danger zone is the florida panhandle to hait with western cuba and sw florida the lucky bullseye (middle)


Just looked at these model runs. That is actually 15-17 days out. There is no 'danger zone'. If this shows up with 120 hours of T0, then we can only consider using those terms.
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
...??
Hello...????
wait till jan when you are lucky too see 150 over three days place has thinned out people going other places lurking or just plain done for the season unless something serious pops up
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...??
Hello...????
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
18z gfs again hurricane over cuba and bahamas. so i think now since the model got the idea back today and tomorrow show a hurricane in almost every run, it safe to say 8 to 10 days a td will try to form in the SW carribean and will either move into the eastern gulf or as far east as hati. the danger zone is the florida panhandle to hait with western cuba and sw florida the lucky bullseye (middle)
Member Since: August 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1632
Quoting luigi18:


well NHC is saying she will move north! i don't buy that!
well i can say with confidence north she goes sorta like a quasi staionary circle jerk around itself all the while moving north

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Evening all. I see Ophelia is back.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
that may not be completly correct eastern half stands a chance yet once we see the conus flow coming off conus from the nw then the season will be over till then the door is still open


The door is open until Friday night. 3 days left.
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Quoting FrankZapper:
The hurricane season for the GOM is ending.

My Grandmother would say " Jesus, Mary, and Joseph".
that may not be completly correct eastern half stands a chance yet once we see the conus flow coming off conus from the nw then the season will be over till then the door is still open
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Blast of cool dry air coming into S Florida this weekend. Lows will be in the mid 60's all the way down to Ft Myers by the weekend.

Soon it will be time to put away the shutters and unpack the sweaters.
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Not so dry now.
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Quoting BDADUDE:
You may get some of Ophelia's rain soon.


well NHC is saying she will move north! i don't buy that!
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Quoting luigi18:


Here in Puerto Rico and the Spanish virgin island the water is Hotter than ever is incredible it feel like a water heater is not normal for these waters.
You may get some of Ophelia's rain soon.
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Guadeloupe radar
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Your incorrect about the waters being cooler than they were with Katia...they are basically the same, or maybe a little warmer. As for dry air, I don't see it being a problem. This is because dry air doesn't really harm a system if shear isn't there to help.



Here in Puerto Rico and the Spanish virgin island the water is Hotter than ever is incredible it feel like a water heater is not normal for these waters.
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Ophelia getting large again.
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maybe everbody headed north
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Quoting RitaEvac:
Rain falling on burnt ash drought stone hard cracked grounds in Bastrop

Alot of that around Bastrop was Virga, came over my house and lightning and thunder for over 1 hour but not 1 drop of rain.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
lol...

anybody here....?
Hello....?



no one here LOL


this kinding
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lol...

anybody here....?
Hello....?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31919
Quoting washingtonian115:
As mentioned earlier shear will be marginal.Yes sst are warm but not as warm as thy were when Katia had moved over them.Dry air may be a problem as we've seen with many systems this year.

Your incorrect about the waters being cooler than they were with Katia...they are basically the same, or maybe a little warmer. As for dry air, I don't see it being a problem. This is because dry air doesn't really harm a system if shear isn't there to help.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31919
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Why not?
As mentioned earlier shear will be marginal.Yes sst are warm but not as warm as thy were when Katia had moved over them.Dry air may be a problem as we've seen with many systems this year.
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The hurricane season for the GOM is ending.

My Grandmother would say " Jesus, Mary, and Joseph".
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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