Typhoon Nesat kills 12 in the Philippines; Ophelia regenerating

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:28 PM GMT on September 27, 2011

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Typhoon Nesat roared across Luzon Island in the Philippines last night as a dangerous Category 3 typhoon with 120 mph winds. The typhoon likely dumped 12 - 15 inches of rain along portions of it path, according to satellite rainfall amount forecasts. Flooding and drownings been blamed for at least 12 deaths in the Philippines. We don't have any weather stations on the east coast of Luzon near where the eye came ashore that survived to send us data, but winds at Iba on the west coast of Luzon reached a sustained speed of 67 mph at 5 pm local time today as the eyewall of Nesat moved through. Cabanatuan in Central Luzon received 5.55" inches of rain. The center of Nesat passed well north of the capital of Manila, which received sustained winds of 37 mph, gusting to 55, and 2.74" of rain. Heavy flooding is reported in Manila, where the soils were saturated by heavy seasonal monsoon rains before the arrival of Nesat. Nesat's winds drove a storm surge that smashed through the seawall protecting Manila, and significant storm surge flooding occurred along the shore. Nesat is now a disorganized Category 1 typhoon with 95 mph winds over the South China Sea, and is expected to re-intensify into a Category 2 typhoon before making landfall near China's Hainan Island on Thursday and northern Vietnam on Friday.


Figure 1. Microwave image from NOAA's F-16 satellite showing the estimated rain rate of Typhoon Nesat as it was making landfall on Luzon Island in the Philippines at 6:31 pm EDT Monday, September 26, 2011. Rainfall rates over 1"/hour (orange colors) were occurring in much of the eyewall. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Atlantic update: Ophelia rising again, Philippe no threat
The remains of Tropical Storm Ophelia continue to fester in the Atlantic a few hundred miles east of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, and now appear ready to re-organize into a tropical depression. Martinique radar shows a large area of concentrated thunderstorms lies about 200 miles to the east of the northern Lesser Antilles, though with only a little rotation and very limited spiral banding. Recent satellite loops show that Ophelia may now have a closed surface circulation, and heavy thunderstorms are increasing, though are limited in areal extent. A hurricane hunter aircraft will investigate Ophelia this afternoon at 2 pm to see if a tropical depression has formed.


Figure 2. Morning radar image from the Martinique radar shows the heavy rain showers from Ophelia, just east of the northern Lesser Antilles. Image credit: Meteo-France.

Dry air and moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots are slowing down the regeneration process, and will continue to limit Ophelia's intensification over the next few days. NHC gave Ophelia an 80% chance of regenerating by Thursday in their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, and most of the models give strong support to Ophelia regenerating. I expect Ophelia will be a tropical storm again by Wednesday. A trough of low pressure should steer Ophelia to the northwest and then north over the next five days, with the storm making its closest pass by Bermuda on Saturday. Tropical Storm Warnings may be required for Bermuda this weekend. Ophelia is not a threat to any other land areas, though the storm will bring some heavy rain squalls and wind gusts of 25 - 35 mph to the northern Lesser Antilles Islands today and Wednesday.

In the far eastern Atlantic, Tropical Storm Philippe is headed northwest into the middle of the North Atlantic, and is not expected to trouble and land areas. Wind shear is high enough over Philippe that the storm is unlikely to become a hurricane over the next five days.

Eastern Pacific's Hurricane Hilary slowly weakening
In the Eastern Pacific, Hurricane Hilary has slowly weakened to a Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds. A trough of low pressure is expected to turn Hilary to sharply to the north on Wednesday. Since Hilary will be crossing cool water and encountering increased wind shear, the storm will weaken rapidly beginning Wednesday, and all of the models show Hilary dissipating before reaching the coast.


Figure 3. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Hilary at 4:35 pm EDT September 26, 2011. At the time, Hilary was a Category 3 storm with 130 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Jeff Masters

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384. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Quoting wunderweatherman123:

im sorry but for some reason it wont show the numbers on Nalgae and Nesat :( could you please tell me the intensity for both storms please? thank you :)


10 minute sustained winds average from JMA

Nesat - 65 knots
Nalgae - 40 knots
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43671
Quoting Chicklit:

We haven't had a real cold front in Florida yet.
It's still hot here and forecast to be 93 degrees in Central Florida tomorrow as we go through a drying trend.
Hey Chicklit :)

I think our first good front is coming through on Sat.

Previous user Name: scooster67
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382. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #37
TYPHOON NESAT (T1117)
9:00 AM JST September 28 2011
=================================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon In South China Sea

At 0:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Nesat (970 hPa) located at 16.9N 116.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 knots with gusts of 90 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 12 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0

Storm Force Winds
=================
90 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
300 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

24 HRS: 18.5N 112.7E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon)
48 HRS: 19.9N 109.2E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon)
72 HRS: 20.8N 106.3E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43671
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Good news, first time since June 22 my roads are wet, sidewalks are still partially dry but that is something for me anyway. Winds are very strong, blowing over 40 mph, radar is showing pretty heavy rain over me but obviously most of it is not reaching the ground but I have measurable rain for first time in a long time.
\yeah and and smile
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Quoting lottotexas:
ignore button does the trick

If you can't get on the blog, you can't ignore the user ;)
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
People with slow internet connection will not have access to this blog comments section as long as that user is here.

My internet is super fast, and I had a hard time getting on.

Idiots...
ignore button does the trick
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what was 365?
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
People with slow internet connection will not have access to this blog comments section as long as that user is here.

My internet is super fast, and I had a hard time getting on.

Idiots...


I managed to get lucky and ignore him. Not even a troll, but a complete creep.
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People with slow internet connection will not have access to this blog comments section as long as that user is here.

My internet is super fast, and I had a hard time getting on.

Idiots...
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Well nothing in rain gauge but roads got wet, LOL.
Never seen this before around here : ...RED FLAG WARNING FOR DRY LIGHTNING AND OUTFLOW WINDS ISSUED
FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS VALID THROUGH 9 PM
THIS EVENING...

.A COMPACT WEATHER DISTURBANCE OVER CENTRAL TEXAS IS PRODUCING
AREAS OF DRY LIGHTNING IN AN AREA OF SHOWERS PRODUCING MOSTLY
VIRGA. WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO CLIMB THROUGH THE MID 90S UP
TO 103 LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DOWNDRAFTS
WILL INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THIS WILL
FURTHER INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR DANGEROUS FIRE STARTS AND
EXTREME WILDFIRE BEHAVIOR. THE POTENTIAL FOR DRY-LIGHTNING SHOULD
DECREASE DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS AS THE DEVELOPING
STORMS BECOME MORE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVIER RAINFALL RATES.

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373. JLPR2
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Ophelia up to 35.
AL, 16, 2011092800, , BEST, 0, 183N, 595W, 30, 1009, TD,

And post 365 - welcome to ignore you creep.


Why is this blog attracting so many losers? *Sigh*

Also, the circulation is now visible on radar.


Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8459
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Ophelia up to 35.
AL, 16, 2011092800, , BEST, 0, 183N, 595W, 30, 1009, TD,

And post 365 - welcome to ignore you creep.


Ophelia looks really nice this evening.
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Ophelia up to 35.
AL, 16, 2011092800, , BEST, 0, 183N, 595W, 30, 1009, TD,

And post 365 - welcome to ignore you creep.
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This new front will make it all the way to the NW Carb. Thats where storms form this time of the year. Could be what the models see!
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Quoting Chicklit:

We haven't had a real cold front in Florida yet.
It's still hot here and forecast to be 93 degrees in Central Florida tomorrow as we go through a drying trend.
Since we are still above 100 south central Texas has not had a real cold front yet either, Denver and Salt Lake City are still very warm so all the cold air has been in the eastern part of the U.S. and not too far south either.
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Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #11
TROPICAL STORM NALGAE (T1119)
9:00 AM JST September 28 2011
================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Nalgae (996 hPa) located at 19.1N 136.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 7 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
=================
120 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
90 NM from the center in southwest quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 19.1N 134.9E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 19.1N 130.9E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
72 HRS: 19.1N 126.7E - 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)

im sorry but for some reason it wont show the numbers on Nalgae and Nesat :( could you please tell me the intensity for both storms please? thank you :)
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Quoting CaribBoy:
NHC is following the GFS...

The GFS is the american models
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Quoting Vlad959810:

Not yet

We haven't had a real cold front in Florida yet.
It's still hot here and forecast to be 93 degrees in Central Florida tomorrow as we go through a drying trend.
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Quoting Weath0r:
the season is over

Not yet
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358. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #11
TROPICAL STORM NALGAE (T1119)
9:00 AM JST September 28 2011
================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Nalgae (996 hPa) located at 19.1N 136.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 7 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
=================
120 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
90 NM from the center in southwest quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 19.1N 134.9E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 19.1N 130.9E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
72 HRS: 19.1N 126.7E - 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43671
Quoting luigi18:


i will go with the Blue
That is not nice dude.
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i will go with the Blue
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Quoting stormpetrol:
Link

Can't see anything , but you can hear its a nasty night here!


wind blowing sound
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Quoting wunderweatherman123:
18z gfs again hurricane over cuba and bahamas. so i think now since the model got the idea back today and tomorrow show a hurricane in almost every run, it safe to say 8 to 10 days a td will try to form in the SW carribean and will either move into the eastern gulf or as far east as hati. the danger zone is the florida panhandle to hait with western cuba and sw florida the lucky bullseye (middle)

Bout time for the Big one in Miami!
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Hilary down to 105 mph:

EP, 09, 2011092800, , BEST, 0, 173N, 1174W, 90, 968, HU, 64, NEQ, 30, 25, 20, 30, 1008, 250, 20, 0, 0,
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Quoting biowizard:
Frankly, Ophelia never went away. It's weird reading JM's bloggs, in a timezone some 5 or more hours away from UTC, when tropical events are written off as "dead", while NOAA's satellite images are showing seriously well formed storm cells!

Tonight (UK time), Ophelia is looking like a very nicely formed little storm on the sat pics, and I'm only glad the storm is heading NW, rather than W, thereby sparing the Windwards yet another major dowsing!

Brian


north she have been dancing in the same tile for days 17.5 to 18.0 n moving not for now.
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A relatively clean illustration -- no straightline projections, no criss-crossing lines, and especially no line-segments crossing over dots endcapping other line-segments -- showing why I don't normally post Invest mappings; instead choosing to post bridging maps every 24hours with only 1 Invest coordinate in common between them.

I mapped it, so I know what's on there. But try writing up a verbal explanation that others can follow.
From viewing the above, one might suspect that Ophelia's ghost has driven the NHC mad.
So a simplified (ie explicable) version below.

For the 26Sept_6pmGMT_ATCF, NHC* had decided that exOphelia's center had relocated (82.1degrees, slightly north of) eastward 159miles(256kilometres) from 18.5n61.0w to 18.8n58.6w
18.8n58.6w, 18.9n59.0w, 19.0n59.4w were the 26Sept_6pmGMT_ATCF coordinates, which were revised&altered to
18.8n58.6w, 19.1n58.9w, 19.4n59.2w, 19.6n59.6w, 19.7n59.9w for its 27Sept_12amGMTthen6amGMT_ATCF, which were revised&altered to
18.8n58.6w, 18.6n58.8w, 18.6n58.9w, 18.5n59.1w, 18.5n59.3w, 18.5n59.5w for its 27Sept_12pmGMT_ATCF, which were revised&altered.
From the trifurcation at 18.8n58.6w:
the middle 2 line-segments represent exOphelia's 26Sept_6pmGMT_ATCF path,
the top 4 line-segments represent its 27Sept_12amGMTthen6amGMT_ATCF path,
and the bottom 5 line-segments represent its 27Sept_12pmGMT_ATCF path.

Starting 26Sept_12amGMT and ending 27Sept_6pmGMT

The lone red ocean dot represents 18.5n61.0w, exOphelias last reported position before making its center relocation.
The southernmost 6 connected line-segments represent [TropicalDepression]Ophelia's 27Sept_6pmGMT_ATCF path

After receiving info from the HurricaneHunters in time for its 27Sept_6pmGMT_ATCF, NHC* decided that exOphelia's center had instead relocated (97.1degrees, slightly south of) eastward 159miles(256kilometres) from 18.5n61.0w to 18.2n58.6w .
18.2n58.6w, 18.2n58.4w, 17.2n58.7w, 17.2n58.8w, 17.3n59.5w, 17.4n59.9w, 17.5n60.3w are now its most recent positions.
( [TD]Ophelia's 28Sept_12amGMT_ATCF is due out soon.)
Using ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 12pmGMT then 6pmGMT to derive the travel-speed&heading:
[TD]Ophelia's travel-speed was 4.5mph(7.2k/h) on a heading of 284.7degrees(WNW);
visually^ [TD]Ophelia appears to have been headed for passage over Anguilla(AXA).

Copy&paste 18.5n61.0w-18.8n58.6w, 18.8n58.6w-18.9n59.0w, 18.9n59.0w-19.0n59.4w, 18.8n58.6w-19.1n58.9w, 19.1n58.9w-19.4n59.2w, 19.4n59.2w-19.6n59.6w, 19.6n59.6w-19.7n59.9w, 18.8n58.6w-18.6n58.8w, 18.6n58.8w-18.6n58.9w, 18.6n58.9w-18.5n59.1w, 18.5n59.1w-18.5n59.3w, 18.5n59.3w-18.5n59.5w, axa, 18.5n61.0w-18.2n58.6w, 18.2n58.6w-18.2n58.4w, 18.2n58.4w-17.2n58.7w, 17.2n58.7w-17.2n58.8w, 17.2n58.8w-17.3n59.5w, 17.3n59.5w-17.4n59.9w, 17.4n59.9w-17.5n60.3w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info.

The previous mapping for 27Sept_12pmGMT

* NHC has final say on the ATCF reports.

^ The mapping is confusing enough without adding a straight-line projection.
Unless [TD]Ophelia's ATCF coordinates are once again extensively re-evaluated&altered,
or a TropicalCyclone landfall appears both plausible and imminent,
the next mapping will be for the [28Sept_6amGMT_ATCF]

[TD edited in to replace ex where appropriate : and a time change] There's been backward revisions on the 28Sept_12amGMT_ATCF since the original posting
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Quoting stormpetrol:
Convection from Ophelia is gradually tracking toward/and into the Northern Antilles, that can't be denied!


yes i agree
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Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Good news, first time since June 22 my roads are wet, sidewalks are still partially dry but that is something for me anyway. Winds are very strong, blowing over 40 mph, radar is showing pretty heavy rain over me but obviously most of it is not reaching the ground but I have measurable rain for first time in a long time.


OMG.....congratulations are in order....sooooo glad to hear that. :))))
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Philippe:

AL, 17, 2011092800, , BEST, 0, 159N, 366W, 35, 1006, TS, 34, NEQ, 150, 60, 0, 45, 1012, 150, 75, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, PHILIPPE, M,
what about the new td in the west pac and nesat? anything new on them?
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Good news, first time since June 22 my roads are wet, sidewalks are still partially dry but that is something for me anyway. Winds are very strong, blowing over 40 mph, radar is showing pretty heavy rain over me but obviously most of it is not reaching the ground but I have measurable rain for first time in a long time.
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LinkCheck out these waves dudes!!
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344. JLPR2
You can see Ophelia's 850mb vort jumping around.

21z


00z
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8459
Philippe:

AL, 17, 2011092800, , BEST, 0, 159N, 366W, 35, 1006, TS, 34, NEQ, 150, 60, 0, 45, 1012, 150, 75, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, PHILIPPE, M,
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Quoting SunnyDaysFla:

What an amazing picture. Is that a waterspout hitting that ship?

fantasyartdesign.com

It isn't real. Cool artwork though.
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Quoting BDADUDE:


Whoa....was is that?
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Quoting BDADUDE:

What an amazing picture. Is that a waterspout hitting that ship?
Member Since: September 19, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 483
Evening, Wunderfolks.
Is Ophelia Newfoundland-bound?

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Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7506
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The Philippines new threat...Nalgae:

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Quoting BDADUDE:


???
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.