Typhoon Nesat kills 12 in the Philippines; Ophelia regenerating

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:28 PM GMT on September 27, 2011

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Typhoon Nesat roared across Luzon Island in the Philippines last night as a dangerous Category 3 typhoon with 120 mph winds. The typhoon likely dumped 12 - 15 inches of rain along portions of it path, according to satellite rainfall amount forecasts. Flooding and drownings been blamed for at least 12 deaths in the Philippines. We don't have any weather stations on the east coast of Luzon near where the eye came ashore that survived to send us data, but winds at Iba on the west coast of Luzon reached a sustained speed of 67 mph at 5 pm local time today as the eyewall of Nesat moved through. Cabanatuan in Central Luzon received 5.55" inches of rain. The center of Nesat passed well north of the capital of Manila, which received sustained winds of 37 mph, gusting to 55, and 2.74" of rain. Heavy flooding is reported in Manila, where the soils were saturated by heavy seasonal monsoon rains before the arrival of Nesat. Nesat's winds drove a storm surge that smashed through the seawall protecting Manila, and significant storm surge flooding occurred along the shore. Nesat is now a disorganized Category 1 typhoon with 95 mph winds over the South China Sea, and is expected to re-intensify into a Category 2 typhoon before making landfall near China's Hainan Island on Thursday and northern Vietnam on Friday.


Figure 1. Microwave image from NOAA's F-16 satellite showing the estimated rain rate of Typhoon Nesat as it was making landfall on Luzon Island in the Philippines at 6:31 pm EDT Monday, September 26, 2011. Rainfall rates over 1"/hour (orange colors) were occurring in much of the eyewall. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Atlantic update: Ophelia rising again, Philippe no threat
The remains of Tropical Storm Ophelia continue to fester in the Atlantic a few hundred miles east of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, and now appear ready to re-organize into a tropical depression. Martinique radar shows a large area of concentrated thunderstorms lies about 200 miles to the east of the northern Lesser Antilles, though with only a little rotation and very limited spiral banding. Recent satellite loops show that Ophelia may now have a closed surface circulation, and heavy thunderstorms are increasing, though are limited in areal extent. A hurricane hunter aircraft will investigate Ophelia this afternoon at 2 pm to see if a tropical depression has formed.


Figure 2. Morning radar image from the Martinique radar shows the heavy rain showers from Ophelia, just east of the northern Lesser Antilles. Image credit: Meteo-France.

Dry air and moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots are slowing down the regeneration process, and will continue to limit Ophelia's intensification over the next few days. NHC gave Ophelia an 80% chance of regenerating by Thursday in their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, and most of the models give strong support to Ophelia regenerating. I expect Ophelia will be a tropical storm again by Wednesday. A trough of low pressure should steer Ophelia to the northwest and then north over the next five days, with the storm making its closest pass by Bermuda on Saturday. Tropical Storm Warnings may be required for Bermuda this weekend. Ophelia is not a threat to any other land areas, though the storm will bring some heavy rain squalls and wind gusts of 25 - 35 mph to the northern Lesser Antilles Islands today and Wednesday.

In the far eastern Atlantic, Tropical Storm Philippe is headed northwest into the middle of the North Atlantic, and is not expected to trouble and land areas. Wind shear is high enough over Philippe that the storm is unlikely to become a hurricane over the next five days.

Eastern Pacific's Hurricane Hilary slowly weakening
In the Eastern Pacific, Hurricane Hilary has slowly weakened to a Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds. A trough of low pressure is expected to turn Hilary to sharply to the north on Wednesday. Since Hilary will be crossing cool water and encountering increased wind shear, the storm will weaken rapidly beginning Wednesday, and all of the models show Hilary dissipating before reaching the coast.


Figure 3. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Hilary at 4:35 pm EDT September 26, 2011. At the time, Hilary was a Category 3 storm with 130 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Jeff Masters

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Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9693
Don't tell me, let me guess:

Some idiot quoted a post that was slowing down the blog, and locked it up.

I'll look in in the morning and see if it's cleared up.
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The Psyco posted hundred of photos making the browser Script to overflow...You have to disable viewing images. Then ignore the Psyco...
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432. 996tt
What a moron post. Blog is useless now.
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431. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #12
TROPICAL STORM NALGAE (T1119)
12:00 PM JST September 28 2011
================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 3:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Nalgae (996 hPa) located at 19.1N 136.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 6 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
=================
120 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
90 NM from the center in southwest quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 19.1N 134.5E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
45 HRS: 19.1N 130.9E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
69 HRS: 19.1N 126.7E - 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
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430. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #38
TYPHOON NESAT (T1117)
12:00 PM JST September 28 2011
=================================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon In South China Sea

At 3:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Nesat (970 hPa) located at 17.0N 116.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 knots with gusts of 90 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 9 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0

Storm Force Winds
=================
90 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
300 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

24 HRS: 18.7N 112.2E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon)
45 HRS: 19.9N 109.2E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon)
69 HRS: 20.8N 106.3E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
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Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9693
428. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #15
TYPHOON PEDRING (NESAT)
11:00 AM PhST September 28 2011
=============================

Typhoon "PEDRING" has intensified as it continues to move away from the country.

At 10:00 AM PhST, Typhoon Pedring (Nesat) located at 17.1°N 116.6°E or 380 km west northwest of Baguio City has 10 minute sustained winds of 70 knots with gusts of 90 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 10 knots.

Signal Warnings
==============

Signal Warning #1
--------------

Luzon Region
------------
1. Zambales
2. La Union
3. Pangasinan

Additional Information
=====================

Public Storm Warning Signal elsewhere are now lowered.

Residents in low lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signals are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides. Likewise, those living in coastal areas are alerted against big waves or storm surges generated by this tropical cyclone.

Estimated rainfall amount is from 15-25 mm per hour within the 650 km diameter of the typhoon.

Typhoon Pedring Pedring will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon and will bring scattered to widespread rains over the rest of Western Luzon.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 PM today and the hourly updates.
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what in da world is Philippe up to?
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Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9693
i went to my blog and addeded the nuthead to my ignore list which removed the post
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i finally got it removed
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423. JLPR2
Quoting floridafisherman:
is noone posting because of the spam from post 411?


Yeah, people with slow internet connection cant access the blog because the large amount of pictures freezes their browsers.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8499
is noone posting because of the spam from post 411?
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Quoting superpete:
ADMIN: Remove post 411 and handle 'eggsforeveryone'
Blog has seized up.
TIA

Yes, that sad little fellow also polluted Dr. Rood's blog. We know who it is; guess he's upset about yesterday's permaban. Pity...

If the sad sack hasn't been removed yet, just enter the following in your browser's address bar (making sure there is no space after the 'r' in 'ignore' as there is here):

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--where XXXXXXXXXX is your WU handle. Then hit enter.
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ADMIN: Remove post 411 and handle 'eggsforeveryone'
Blog has seized up.
TIA
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419. JLPR2
Makes you wonder where the heck the LLC is really at. XD
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8499
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Good night all.

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Well, today isn't a very exciting day here. Good Night everyone.
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Can't seem to post Images.

Link

I'm sure look'n forward to the cooler air. If the "front train" follows the one coming through this weekend, then the CONUS is probably in the clear. Except, of course, S. Florida.

S67
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I think Ophelia coc might be slight further south now!
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7663
Quoting weatherh98:


no doubt though the eye is there fading like the sun at sunset... funny how the "kids"" are the ones commenting


Second that.
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

It's rapidly decaying in structure, that's for sure.


no doubt though the eye is there fading like the sun at sunset... funny how the "kids"" are the ones commenting
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Regardless of whether it looks that way or not, it definitely has the winds.

Like Jose! XD
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Quoting weatherh98:


eehh i wouldnt go that far but closer to a ts than the nhc is saying

It's rapidly decaying in structure, that's for sure.
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Hilary doesn't even look like a hurricane anymore....

Regardless of whether it looks that way or not, it definitely has the winds.
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Hilary doesn't even look like a hurricane anymore....


eehh i wouldnt go that far but closer to a ts than the nhc is saying
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
All tropical cyclones on Earth from weakest to strongest (maximum sustained winds):

Tropical Depression Ophelia (35 mph):



Tropical Storm Philippe (40 mph):



Tropical Storm Nalgae (45 mph):



Typhoon Nesat (75 mph):



Hurricane Hilary (105 mph):


Hilary doesn't even look like a hurricane anymore....
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Quoting will40:



the 5 day track is the interesting one


well if you look at the steering chart you can see it will transfer from going around a high pressure to a new high pressure which pulls it back southward

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387 Patrap "[TD.Ophelia photo-animation]"

THANKS for posting that Spectacular. Ophelia looks like a pinwheel rocket going off.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860



the 5 day track is the interesting one
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Quoting JLPR2:


Hillary gave one last show this afternoon, since then her eye disappeared and I get the feeling it wont come back.

Really nice Hurricane, strong and never made landfall.
The perfect combination. :D

Yep, really was a nice hurricane to track. Too bad we wont see one of those in the Atlantic, because the Cape Verde season is probably over, and now, if something like that develops, it will be in the Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico, and impact land.
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for philippe, this would make perfect sense...


but i'm honestly not sure about ophelia


all the tracks look almost exactly the same
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397. JLPR2
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
All tropical cyclones on Earth from weakest to strongest (maximum sustained winds)


Hillary gave one last show this afternoon, since then her eye disappeared and I get the feeling it wont come back.

Really nice Hurricane, strong and never made landfall.
The perfect combination. :D
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8499
Quoting weatherh98:


cool to see that thx for posting it

np.
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395. JLPR2
Quoting serialteg:
Can someone please explain why the CMISS layer mean steering map and the N forecast movement don't seem to co-relate? At least to me...


There is the possibility that the models deepen the system too quickly, the deeper the system, the nicer the weakness gets.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8499
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
All tropical cyclones on Earth from weakest to strongest (maximum sustained winds):

Tropical Depression Ophelia (35 mph):



Tropical Storm Philippe (40 mph):



Tropical Storm Nalgae (45 mph):



Typhoon Nesat (75 mph):



Hurricane Hilary (105 mph):



cool to see that thx for posting it
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393. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
ya, but Nesat will be a little higher on the JTWC advisory.
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All tropical cyclones on Earth from weakest to strongest (maximum sustained winds):

Tropical Depression Ophelia (35 mph):



Tropical Storm Philippe (40 mph):



Tropical Storm Nalgae (45 mph):



Typhoon Nesat (75 mph):



Hurricane Hilary (105 mph):

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Quoting gulfbreeze:
This blog is getting out of hand a lot the good people do not post anymore and some have been ban. We need to get back to talking weather!!!!


please do i rarely get on now... but check in because i love wx
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Can someone please explain why the CMISS layer mean steering map and the N forecast movement don't seem to co-relate? At least to me...
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 1975
Wow looks like whatever opheia does reflects onto philippe... ophelia weakens and philippe gains strength and vica versa
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Quoting HadesGodWyvern:


10 minute sustained winds average from JMA

Nesat - 65 knots
Nalgae - 40 knots
so 75mph and 45mph?
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This blog is getting out of hand a lot the good people do not post anymore and some have been ban. We need to get back to talking weather!!!!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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