Ophelia barely alive; Philippe forms; dangerous Typhoon Nesat aims at Philippines

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:16 PM GMT on September 25, 2011

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Tropical Storm Ophelia is barely alive today, as high wind shear and dry air continue to take their toll on the storm. Satellite imagery shows that Ophelia has an oval, highly-stretched center of circulation, with almost no heavy thunderstorm activity near the center. Most of the storm's heavy thunderstorms are to the east of the center, with just a few puffs of thunderstorms occasionally popping up near the center. An analysis from the University of Wisconsin CIMMS group shows a high 25 - 30 knots of wind shear due to strong upper-level southwesterly winds. Water vapor satellite images show Ophelia is at the eastern edge of large area of very dry air.


Figure 1. Noon satellite image of Ophelia. It's tough to pick out a low-level center, and all of the storm's heavy thunderstorms lie several hundred miles to the east of the center. Ophelia is barely alive.

Forecast for Ophelia
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts wind shear will drop to the moderate range, 15 - 20 knots, tonight through Tuesday morning. If Ophelia survives until tonight, the lower shear should allow the storm to make a bit of a comeback. Bermuda is the only land area that might be threatened by Ophelia, but it remains questionable whether or not Ophelia will still be a tropical storm when it makes its closest pass by Bermuda late in the week.

Philippe forms in the far eastern Atlantic
Tropical Storm Philippe formed in the far eastern Atlantic off the coast of Africa yesterday. Philippe is the 16th named storm this year, tying 2011 with 2008, 2003, and 1936 for 7th place for the most number of named storms in a year. Philippe's formation date of September 24 puts 2011 in 2nd place for earliest date of arrival of the season's 16th storm. Only 2005 had an earlier 16th storm. With only three of this year's sixteen storms reaching hurricane strength so far, though, this year has been near average for destructive potential. Atlantic hurricane records go back to 1851. Philippe has a chance to become the season's fourth hurricane; the 11 am EDT NHC wind probability forecast gives Philippe a 45% chance of intensifying into a hurricane by Tuesday morning. Philippe is headed northwest and then north towards cooler waters, and is not a threat to any land areas.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Hilary at 1:40 pm EDT September 24, 2011. At the time, Hilary was a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Eastern Pacific's Hurricane Hilary weakens to Category 3 strength
In the Eastern Pacific, Hurricane Hilary weakened slightly to a Category 3 hurricane with 125 mph winds. Hilary is headed west, away from Mexico, and the storm is small enough that its outer bands are not causing flooding problems for Mexico. A trough of low pressure expected to move over the Western U.S. by the middle of the week should be strong enough to turn Hilary to the north, eventually bringing Hilary to Mexico's Baja Peninsula. The timing of when Hilary might hit Baja is highly uncertain, though. The ECMWF model keeps Hilary offshore for the next 7 days, while the latest 06Z runs of the GFS and NOGAPS models predict Hilary could hit Central Baja on Friday.

Dangerous Typhoon Nesat headed for the Philippines
What may be the season's most dangerous storm in the Western Pacific, Typhoon Nesat, is headed west at 10 mph towards Luzon Island in the Philippines. Nesat is just a Category 1 typhoon with 80 mph winds, but has favorable conditions for intensification. Shear is a moderate 10 - 15 knots, Nesat is embedded in a very moist environment, has very warm sea surface temperatures of 30°C under it, and a very favorable upper-level outflow pattern above it. Nesat has plenty of time to intensify into a major Category 3 or 4 typhoon before its expected landfall on Luzon Island in the Philippines near 9 am local time Tuesday morning.

Jeff Masters

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Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114709
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422. Skyepony (Mod)
GANGTOK: Glaciers in north Sikkim, disturbed by the 6.8 magnitude earthquake, have started melting faster, leading to fears of flash floods in the region.

Geologists say the increasing flow of water could threaten the flora and fauna of the Kanchenjunga National Park, the highest national park in India. In the past couple of days, black water has been flowing out of the mountains, and some traditional springs have gone missing. Geologists feel these are warnings of flash floods.

"Nothing will be stable at the moment," said Sushil Kumar, a geophysicist with the Wadia Institute of Himalayan Geology. Experts say another quake in the region could prove even more devastating and could even change the course of the Teesta. The state has formed an expert panel to prepare a report on the impact of the quake.
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The Blog appears to be stuck.
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Of course, Ophelia finally looks tropical after she's declared post-tropical. I guess she has quite the shot at regenerating sometime tomorrow.
Philippe can probably still make hurricane status, albeit briefly.

And what's with that very interesting looking tropical system in the northeast Atlantic around 35N? If this season wants to be any more similar to its 6-year-ago counterpart, then that looks like it could be this year's Vince. Although it's very difficult to tell, but it does look like a broken-off trough that's getting somewhat tropical characteristics.
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Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
No; furniture under pets. Hard to train furniture.


Good one! Made me laugh. I buy mine ready trained.
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Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
No; furniture under pets. Hard to train furniture.


Good one! Made me laugh. i buy mine ready trained.
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417. ch2os
......testing......
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Quoting JLPR2:
Makes me wonder what Ophelia is planning.



Slow moving Ophelia is going to bring lots of showers here.... Maybe its Coc 50-100 N of PR (What is left of her, as long as shear keeps her from re- developing)



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413. JLPR2
Makes me wonder what Ophelia is planning.

Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8499
Quoting kipperedherring:
Tazmaniac! You old pelican! What do you see happening the first week of October?




am not sure it seemm like wind shear is starting too take overe so am not sure if will see any oct storms or we see a few but we all so start looking closer too home
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114709
411. Skyepony (Mod)
Photos suggest comet Elenin is falling apart
Amateur astronomer says that close pass to the sun might have taken a toll


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hilary and philipe the same as the 5pm
Member Since: August 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1289
yea i thought so too, illustrates nicely the effects topography can have
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Quoting WDEmobmet:


interesting cloud wake caused by downwind flow from that island, isla socorro, mexico


Nice picture!
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Quoting SubtropicalHi:


Wish you guys could have gotten some decent rain last week.
It sprinkled in Bastrop a few days ago but it did not get roads wet, that is about heaviest rain I saw driving around. 105 here today and extremely windy, humidity next to nothing.
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interesting cloud wake caused by downwind flow from that island, isla socorro, mexico
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Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Bastrop Fire Update with Good News: Three weeks after a devastating fire in Bastrop residents are beginning to heal and recover. Recovery efforts are in full swing and now residents and responders will soon have the power they need.

Officials with Bluebonnet Energy announced Sunday, crews will have power restored to all areas affected by the Labor Day fires by the end of the day, two weeks earlier than estimated.


They are still working on hot spots and last i heard fire was 95 percent contained but other than that time to start rebuilding Bastrop. The Good News is that the Businesses in Town were not affected. If you drive downtown Bastrop which is very nice you would not know a fire had happened.


Wish you guys could have gotten some decent rain last week.
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Quoting Bielle:


Pets on the furniture???
No; furniture under pets. Hard to train furniture.
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90s in Central Canada today.

Kindersley

Swift

Lethbridge


Medicine Hat
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Then I should cancel buying Christmas presents?




ask me that next year
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114709
Good night all.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31430
Quoting Tazmanian:
i think DOOM will come 12-12-12


Then I should cancel buying Christmas presents?
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10971
Quoting kap333:
Yes 2012...all bets are off with that year coming. First we have to deal with that phantom Elenin on Tuesday and then 11-11-11 and finally 12-21-12. More than likely, nothing will come of any of those dates.

One question, are we done with 2011 yet? The Caribbean could still be an issue in October.



We're no where done with the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season, there is still a good probability of 6-9 named storms, mainly in the Caribbean. This will be a problem during October and November.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31430
i think DOOM will come 12-12-12
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114709
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Bastrop Fire Update with Good News: Three weeks after a devastating fire in Bastrop residents are beginning to heal and recover. Recovery efforts are in full swing and now residents and responders will soon have the power they need.
If you drive downtown Bastrop which is very nice you would not know a fire had happened.

I wonder how this will affect next year's bluebonnet season. Some vegetation does better after a fire, but I don't know about bluebonnets (as in my avatar!).
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Yes 2012...all bets are off with that year coming. First we have to deal with that phantom Elenin on Tuesday and then 11-11-11 and finally 12-21-12. More than likely, nothing will come of any of those dates.

One question, are we done with 2011 yet? The Caribbean could still be an issue in October.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Everybody knows next hurricane season is going to be the most destructive and deadly hurricane season ever recorded.

It will be 2012 just so you know. ;)
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2011SEP26 013000 6.2 945.0/ 2.2 /119.8 6.1 6.1 6.1 NO LIMIT ON OFF 6.34 -63.48 EYE 14 IR 16.90 111.01 COMBO

Supports an intensity of Category 4. SAB/TAFB were at 5.5 at 0000 UTC (8 p.m. EDT), or just below Category 4 hurricane status. I think there is a good chance it is upgraded to a C4 at 11PM.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31430
393. DFWjc
366. Chapelhill 1:15 AM GMT on September 26, 2011 0 Hide this comment.
Oh, Baja is in California? ;)

DFWjc- I think I know what you mean when you say cold air from Canada leading to tropical development. You mean convective development along old frontal boundries that evolve into a tropical system, right?


That's one way, i was also thinking that without the bloody High over Texas something could actually come through into the Gulf and maybe curve with one of those fronts... just an idea... imho
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Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10971
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Of course.


Each to his own.
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Quoting Bielle:


Pets on the furniture???


Of course.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10971
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
For a little break...my new baby McKenzie, is losing her baby teeth. The ones I find, I am using them for letter openers...

img src="Photobucket">


Pets on the furniture???
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
For a little break...my new baby McKenzie, is losing her baby teeth. The ones I find, I am using them for letter openers...

img src="Photobucket">
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10971
Quoting ClaySFL:
Hello folks. I've always watched the comments and I finally made an account. I'll be mostly lurking and i'll comment from time to time.


Hello ClaySFL
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Quoting wunderweatherman123:
we are 9 months away from the 2012 season but would would you predictions be if we had el nino, la nina or neutral. Mine are
El nino 11 Tropical storms 5 hurricanes 2 major
La nina 15 tropical storms 8 hurricanes and 4 major
Neutral 17 tropical storms 9 hurricanes and 5 major


Everybody knows next hurricane season is going to be the most destructive and deadly hurricane season ever recorded.

It will be 2012 just so you know. ;)
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31430
Quoting WoodyFL:
How many months has Ophelia been out there? It seems like forever.


Months? lol.

It was classified only four days ago, but it DOES seem like forever.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31430
Quoting WoodyFL:
How many months has Ophelia been out there? It seems like forever.


I know. Once they get in that area...it seems like forever for them to get moving.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10971
Quoting Chicklit:
What century are we in?


The one before the next one.
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Quoting KingofNewOrleans:
Never noticed that there was an island so far off of the west coast of Mexico (on the north side of Hillary). Is it inhabited or is that where they keep the dinosaurs?


Isla Socorro - Being alone there with Hillary around you will surelly yell SOCORRO....

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Quoting ClaySFL:
Hello folks. I've always watched the comments and I finally made an account. I'll be mostly lurking and i'll comment from time to time.

Welcome aboard...
Quoting bappit:
They plus each other's posts, methinks.

I plus every post. Even yours. It's how I keep my WU karma at a healthy level. ;-)
Quoting WoodyFL:


That is funny.

Yeah, a real knee-slapper, that. :-\
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13455
How many months has Ophelia been out there? It seems like forever.
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Quoting Skyepony:


Yeah I don't know if I'd go 50% on the State of California. Not impossible. Headed that way. Colder temps won't be good for it..expected to weaken on the way. Maybe a struggling TS by the time she gets near land again, maybe stronger if she skirts closer to the west coast.

The Pacific water is so cold campared to the ATL/CRB/GOM. but with a large enough storm it would provide enough residual effect that the media would have a frenzy..
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Never noticed that there was an island so far off of the west coast of Mexico (on the north side of Hillary). Is it inhabited or is that where they keep the dinosaurs?
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Ophelia, Philippe and two other low areas (shown in Wve height)

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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Welcome Clay.


Thank you. Glad to be on here :)
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Bastrop Fire Update with Good News: Three weeks after a devastating fire in Bastrop residents are beginning to heal and recover. Recovery efforts are in full swing and now residents and responders will soon have the power they need.

Officials with Bluebonnet Energy announced Sunday, crews will have power restored to all areas affected by the Labor Day fires by the end of the day, two weeks earlier than estimated.


They are still working on hot spots and last i heard fire was 95 percent contained but other than that time to start rebuilding Bastrop. The Good News is that the Businesses in Town were not affected. If you drive downtown Bastrop which is very nice you would not know a fire had happened.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ClaySFL:
Hello folks. I've always watched the comments and I finally made an account. I'll be mostly lurking and i'll comment from time to time.


Welcome Clay.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10971

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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