Ophelia remains weak; TD 17 forms; dangerous Nesat headed for the Philippines

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:54 PM GMT on September 24, 2011

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There's not much change to Tropical Storm Ophelia today, which continues to battle dry air and high wind shear. Satellite imagery shows that Ophelia has little heavy thunderstorm activity near its low level circulation center, which is mostly exposed to view. Most of the storm's heavy thunderstorms are to the east of the center, with just a few puffs of thunderstorms occasionally popping up near the center. An analysis from the University of Wisconsin CIMMS group shows a high 20 - 25 knots of wind shear due to strong upper-level southwesterly winds. Water vapor satellite images show Ophelia is at the eastern edge of large area of very dry air.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Ophelia showing the low-level center exposed to view, with all the storm's heavy thunderstorms in a band several hundred miles to the east and south. This is not a healthy-looking tropical storm.

Forecast for Ophelia
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that Ophelia will experience high wind shear of 20 - 40 knots over the next five days, and will move into a region with slightly drier air. This combination of shear and dry air may be enough to dissipate Ophelia, as predicted by several of the models. However, Ophelia has maintained itself better than the models have predicted, so the storm will probably survive until at least Sunday. Even it Ophelia does dissipate, it will have the chance to regenerate by Tuesday or Wednesday, when it may encounter a region of lower wind shear. At this time, it appears that Ophelia will only be a threat to Bermuda.

TD 17 forms
Tropical Depression 17 formed in the far eastern Atlantic off the coast of Africa last night, and is likely to intensify into Tropical Storm Philippe later today. TD 17 has some impressive low-level spiral bands and upper-level outflow, and is very close to tropical storm strength. The predicted west-northwest to northwest track of TD 17 will put it in a position where historically, very few storms have ever gone on to hit land.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Hilary at 4:05 pm EDT September 23, 2011. At the time, Hilary was a Category 4 storm with 145 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Powerful Hurricane Hilary remains at Category 4 strength
In the Eastern Pacific, Hurricane Hilary remains an impressive Category 4 hurricane with 140 mph winds. Hilary is headed west, away from Mexico, and the storm is small enough that its outer bands are not causing flooding problems for Mexico. A trough of low pressure expected to move over the Western U.S. by the middle of the week may be strong enough to turn Hilary to the north, eventually bringing Hilary to Mexico's Baja Peninsula. The timing of this event is highly uncertain, though. Hilary is small enough that it is unlikely to bring significant drought relief to Arizona, New Mexico, and Texas if the storm's remnants move north into those states. Hilary is the fourth Category 4 hurricane in the Eastern Pacific this year, and the second strongest, behind Hurricane Dora, which had 155 mph winds.

Invest 91L set to soak North Carolina
A moderate amount of heavy thunderstorm activity has developed over the Northwestern Bahamas in association with the tail end of an old stalled front. This disturbance, Invest 91L, is under a low 5 - 10 knots of wind shear, but water vapor loops show a considerable amount of dry air to the east and west of the disturbance that will likely interfere with development. In their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 91L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday. The disturbance has only a short window to develop, as it is headed northwards and is expected to make landfall in North Carolina by Sunday afternoon. The 8 am EDT SHIPS model forecast predicts 91L will hit 35 knots of wind shear by Sunday morning, when the storm will be approaching the coast of North Carolina. Heavy rains from 91L may cause localized flooding in Morehead City, NC and surrounding regions. A moist flow of tropical air over the region has already brought rainfall amounts of 1 - 3 inches to much of Eastern North Carolina today.

Dangerous Tropical Storm Nesat headed for the Philippines
What may be the season's most dangerous storm in the Western Pacific, Tropical Storm Nesat, has formed about 700 miles east of the Philippine Islands. Nesat is under a moderate 10 knots of wind shear, is embedded in a very moist environment, has very warm sea surface temperatures of 30°C under it, and a very favorable upper-level outflow pattern above it. Nesat has plenty of time to intensify into a major typhoon before its expected landfall on Luzon Island in the Philippines on Tuesday morning.

I'll have an update before 2 pm Sunday afternoon.

Jeff Masters

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913. VolunteerGator
2:29 AM GMT on September 28, 2011
What is up! The blog is acting Crazy or I have some problems!
Member Since: September 24, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 20
912. VolunteerGator
2:19 AM GMT on September 28, 2011
Quoting Neapolitan:
Troll ('trole) - noun 1.In Internet slang, a troll is someone who posts inflammatory, extraneous, or off-topic messages in an online community, such as an online discussion forum, chat room, or blog, with the primary intent of provoking readers into an emotional response or of otherwise disrupting normal on-topic discussion; often immature and/or emotionally needy. (Note: as trolls feed off the emotional reactions they have provoked, the quickest and best way to make them disappear is to pretend they don't exist at all: starved of the desired attention, they will always move elsewhere.)


And from Andrew Heenan:

The object of this page is to bring together a definitive document to cover the utter sadness of the Internet troll. Usually, a troll is nothing more than a passing nuisance, but, as this page will show, they can be a worry (stalkers). However, it is almost invariably an inadequate individual who can be safely ignored.

This page will define the activity, and help with early recognition; once acknowledged, trolls can take up residence, and, like athlete's foot, can be difficult to shift. And when you've finished here, I recommend this fairly comprehensive guide to managing sad thirteen year olds loose on Mom's computer.

What Is A Troll?

The term derives from "trolling", a style of fishing which involves trailing bait through a likely spot hoping for a bite. The troll posts a message, often in response to an honest question, that is intended to upset, disrupt or simply insult the group.

Usually, it will fail, as the troll rarely bothers to match the tone or style of the group, and usually its ignorance shows.

Why do trolls do it?

I believe that most trolls are sad people, living their lonely lives vicariously through those they see as strong and successful.

Disrupting a stable newsgroup gives the illusion of power, just as for a few, stalking a strong person allows them to think they are strong, too.

For trolls, any response is 'recognition'; they are unable to distinguish between irritation and admiration; their ego grows directly in proportion to the response, regardless of the form or content of that response.

Trolls, rather surprisingly, dispute this, claiming that it's a game or joke; this merely confirms the diagnosis; how sad do you have to be to find such mind-numbingly trivial timewasting to be funny?

Remember that trolls are cowards; they'll usually post just enough to get an argument going, then sit back and count the responses (Yes, that's what they do!).

S67
Member Since: September 24, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 20
911. reedzone
6:36 PM GMT on September 25, 2011
Sorry but these models are just wayy off. Already have Ophelia moving NW, which is not the case. Sure a system should recurve from that trough, but doesn't mean it will. I have to at least agree somewhat with the BAMM runs, since we are dealing with a shallow/weak system. Ophelia may head more west then what most models are showing. I've been saying this with Ophelia for a while and have been shut down by some bloggers saying I wishcast this to hit Florida. Sorry, but going with the flow of the pattern, Ophelia should continue west to WNW for some time.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7340
910. JLPR2
6:32 PM GMT on September 25, 2011
Quoting luigi18:
Ophelia 265 west in the last frames?


I can't believe it's still a TS. XD
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8499
909. MiamiHurricanes09
5:18 PM GMT on September 25, 2011
Quoting cat5hurricane:
Ophelia = Fish

Philipe = Fish

What you still doing on here then. Don't you have like football to watch or a pool party or BBQ to attend. Or you can just sit here and watch two storms that are never going to have ANY impact on America whatsoever.
Hypocrite.

Do you not receive enough attention at home that you have to pretend like you're the Messiah of a blog? If you're going to give us advice, follow it yourself.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
908. luigi18
4:39 PM GMT on September 25, 2011
Ophelia 265 west in the last frames?
Member Since: September 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 470
907. aspectre
4:32 PM GMT on September 25, 2011
18.3n58.8w has been re-evaluated&altered for TS.Ophelia's_12pmGMT_ATCF
18.2n59.0w, 18.2n60.0w are now the most recent positions
Starting 24Sept_12pmGMT and ending 25Sept_12pmGMT

The 4 eastern line-segments represent TropicalStormOphelia's path,
the westernmost line-segment is the straightline projection for 25Sept_12pmGMT.

Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the
ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 6amGMT then 12pmGMT :
TS.Ophelia's travel-speed was 11mph(17.7k/h) on a heading of 270.2degrees(W)
TS.Ophelia was headed toward passage over BlowingPoint,Anguilla ~14&1/2.hours from now

Copy&paste 23.709n74.803w-rcy, 25.97n77.19w-myas, 17.5n55.6w-17.7n57.0w, 17.7n57.0w-17.9n58.0w, 17.9n58.0w-18.2n59.0w, 18.2n59.0w-18.2n60.0w, axa, 18.2n59.0w-18.17n63.1w into the GreatCircleMapper to include:
the island blob at 25.97n77.19w-myas as the endpoint of the straightline projection
connected to its nearest airport for the25Sept_6amGMT*mapping,
and the island blob at 23.709n74.803w-rcy as the same for the 25Sept_12amGMT*mapping,
along with other info.

The previous mapping for 25Sept_6amGMT
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
906. caneswatch
4:25 PM GMT on September 25, 2011
Quoting cat5hurricane:
Ophelia = Fish

Philipe = Fish

What you still doing on here then. Don't you have like football to watch or a pool party or BBQ to attend. Or you can just sit here and watch two storms that are never going to have ANY impact on America whatsoever.


When will you ever SHUT UP?
Member Since: October 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4553
905. GTcooliebai
4:22 PM GMT on September 25, 2011
Hi guys, Dr. Masters just wrote a new blog :)
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
904. Orcasystems
4:22 PM GMT on September 25, 2011
Complete Update

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI





Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
903. CitikatzSouthFL
4:21 PM GMT on September 25, 2011
Quoting CybrTeddy:
cat5hurricane,

If you find the season boring, then please leave. Go do something, let us stare at our fish storms. You'd be doing a great service to the blog, that's for sure. Personally, I, unlike you clearly, find all tropical storms and hurricanes interesting and not just the Category 5's that are about to hit the USA.


+100,000
Member Since: August 14, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 439
902. Neapolitan
4:20 PM GMT on September 25, 2011
Troll ('trole) - noun 1.In Internet slang, a troll is someone who posts inflammatory, extraneous, or off-topic messages in an online community, such as an online discussion forum, chat room, or blog, with the primary intent of provoking readers into an emotional response or of otherwise disrupting normal on-topic discussion; often immature and/or emotionally needy. (Note: as trolls feed off the emotional reactions they have provoked, the quickest and best way to make them disappear is to pretend they don't exist at all: starved of the desired attention, they will always move elsewhere.)
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13457
901. Sfloridacat5
4:20 PM GMT on September 25, 2011
It's called multitasking.

Eating lunch, watching a movie, checking local radar for storms, checking posts in Wunderblog, researching information for work, typing up an assignment for work, etc.

Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6079
900. HurricaneKyle
4:19 PM GMT on September 25, 2011
Quoting cat5hurricane:

Even weak, pathetic storms like these?? And with the GOM closing down in a couple weeks, what's left? Another Paula, maybe Richard-type storm.

LMAO.


you know, coming from the guy who just said for us to go do something, like BBQ or something.. you don't seem to want to take your own advice.

afternoon everyone. Thought I'd come out of lurking for a few seconds to say hi.
Member Since: August 10, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 672
899. Orcasystems
4:19 PM GMT on September 25, 2011
Quoting cat5hurricane:

Even weak, pathetic storms like these?? And with the GOM closing down in a couple weeks, what's left? Another Paula, maybe Richard-type storm.

LMAO.


You really need to FOCUS :)
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
897. TropicalAnalystwx13
4:17 PM GMT on September 25, 2011
Quoting CybrTeddy:
cat5hurricane,

If you find the season boring, then please leave. Go do something, let us stare at our fish storms. You'd be doing a great service to the blog, that's for sure. Personally, I, unlike you clearly, find all tropical storms and hurricanes interesting and not just the Category 5's that are about to hit the USA.

definitely.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31453
896. GTcooliebai
4:16 PM GMT on September 25, 2011
The Tropics are active World Wide: 5 named storms and 1 invest! Btw GO BUCS!!!
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
895. CybrTeddy
4:15 PM GMT on September 25, 2011
cat5hurricane,

If you find the season boring, then please leave. Go do something, let us stare at our fish storms. You'd be doing a great service to the blog, that's for sure. Personally, I, unlike you clearly, find all tropical storms and hurricanes interesting and not just the Category 5's that are about to hit the USA.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23568
894. Orcasystems
4:14 PM GMT on September 25, 2011
Quoting cat5hurricane:
Ophelia = Fish

Philipe = Fish

What you still doing on here then. Don't you have like football to watch or a pool party or BBQ to attend. Or you can just sit here and watch two storms that are never going to have ANY impact on America whatsoever.


Thats right.. we keep forgetting that don't we. All these silly people on here that keep forgetting that only America counts.. and the rest of us are just a speed bump.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
893. palmasdelrio
4:11 PM GMT on September 25, 2011
Quoting BDADUDE:


Can you post the web site where that map is?
Thanks.
Member Since: May 22, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 178
891. TropicalAnalystwx13
4:09 PM GMT on September 25, 2011
Prognostic Reasoning for Nesat...I'm assuming that is like our Forecast Discussion?

WDPN31 PGTW 251500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 20W WARNING NR 09//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TYPHOON (TY) 20W (NESAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 410 NM EAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A RAPIDLY
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH TIGHTLY-
CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED CENTER. A 251105Z SSMIS
37 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE WITH A STRONG BANDING
FEATURE WRAPPING FROM THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT INTO THE SOUTH
QUADRANT. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS EXCELLENT RADIAL
OUTFLOW. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE SSMIS IMAGE AND PGTW
FIX WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY WAS ASSESSED AT 70
KNOTS, SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 65
KNOTS, BASED ON AN OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 71 KNOTS.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. TY 20W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH TAU 72 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE POSITIONED NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72, THEREFORE, THE JTWC FORECAST IS POSITIONED
CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. TY 20W IS STILL EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY
INTENSIFY PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL OVER LUZON AND SHOULD REACH A
PEAK INTENSITY BETWEEN 115-130 KNOTS BY TAU 36. TY 20W WILL WEAKEN
AS IT CROSSES LUZON BUT SHOULD RE-STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY OVER THE SOUTH
CHINA SEA.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TY 20W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD HAINAN ISLAND UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF
THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE BUILDING INTO SOUTHEAST CHINA. THE
DYNAMIC MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A 350 NM SPREAD
IN TAU 120 POSITIONS. GFS AND NOGAPS REMAIN THE NORTHERN OUTLIERS
WITH TRACKS NEAR HONG KONG AND APPEAR UNLIKELY AS THEY TRACK THE
SYSTEM INTO THE RIDGE. THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE (UKMO, GFDN,
ECMWF) IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED OVER HAINAN ISLAND AND REPRESENTS A MORE
LIKELY SCENARIO. THE JTWC FORECAST IS POSITIONED SLIGHTLY FASTER AND
TO THE SOUTH OF THE TAU 96/120 MODEL CONSENSUS FORECASTS.//
NNNN
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31453
890. TropicalAnalystwx13
4:05 PM GMT on September 25, 2011
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Since both Ophelia and Philippe are pathetic excuses for tropical storms, let's refresh our memory with what a beautiful cyclone looks like.

Typhoon Nesat with 70kt winds.



I wouldn't call Philippe pathetic, it is acting its intensity.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31453
889. TropicalAnalystwx13
4:03 PM GMT on September 25, 2011
We're focused on Ophelia and Philippe and all, but need I remind you that we now have a strengthening typhoon in the Western Pacific? Maximum sustained winds are up to 80 mph, and are expected to possibly surpass 135 mph as Nesat makes landfall.

Visible:

* UNAVAILABLE

Shortwave:



Water Vapor:



None:



AVN:



Dvorak:



JSL:



RGB:



Funktop:



Rainbow:

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31453
888. nofailsafe
4:00 PM GMT on September 25, 2011
Quoting Neapolitan:
As always, if the post-season analyses shows that Ophelia wasn't a tropical storm at this time, the official TCR will reflect that. For now, the folks at the NHC--who, after all, do this for a living--will keep Ophelia as a TS so long as they think it deserves it; if they're later proven wrong, the historical record will reflect that. I have to say, I don't think I understand the yelling and complaining going on; it's not as if anyone's life will be affected by whether the NHC calls it a TS, a TD, or a wave, right?

Right?


Yup. Wind is wind, water is water.
Member Since: June 18, 2010 Posts: 3 Comments: 941
887. MiamiHurricanes09
3:53 PM GMT on September 25, 2011
Since both Ophelia and Philippe are pathetic excuses for tropical storms, let's refresh our memory with what a beautiful cyclone looks like.

Typhoon Nesat with 70kt winds.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
886. gatorman98
3:52 PM GMT on September 25, 2011
Quoting Bluestorm5:
I just checked NHC site and saw that it's 20% chance of tropical depression offcoast of FL/GA/SC. I came on here and saw that we are supposed to get hit by this -___- We don't need anymore rain, as it already dumped 1-2 inches the last 2 days. I also hope it doesn't strengthen rapidly, even though it's HIGHLY unlikely.


Dont worry about it. Much like the last 4 hurricane seasons...and Mizzou's football team...nothing is going to happen.
Member Since: July 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 15
885. Sfloridacat5
3:32 PM GMT on September 25, 2011
Quoting 7544:


thanks and looks whats to the east will it make it to the coast /?


I'm not sure if the "blob" will move over South Florida. But there's abundant moisture over the southern part of the state. There also storms froming over the western GOM moving east towards the west coast. There should be a lot of thunderstorms over the southern half of the state today.
A frontal boundry is dropping down and will dry everything out in a few days. But ahead of the frontal boundry we should expect some stormy weather over the next couple days.
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6079
884. JNCali
3:32 PM GMT on September 25, 2011
Is Hilary trying to tell us something?? Looks like a big "L" to me...

Member Since: September 9, 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 1034
883. luigi18
3:32 PM GMT on September 25, 2011
Quoting Trouper415:
Ophelia is still a tropical storm because of its close proximaty to the island chain. They do not want to drop it, have people let down their guard, and then have it re-intensify and catch those people off guard. Look at how close it is to the islands, and what if it doesn't make that northern-turn?


yeap a lot of rain
Member Since: September 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 470
882. Trouper415
3:31 PM GMT on September 25, 2011
Ophelia is still a tropical storm because of its close proximaty to the island chain. They do not want to drop it, have people let down their guard, and then have it re-intensify and catch those people off guard. Look at how close it is to the islands, and what if it doesn't make that northern-turn?
Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 637
881. WeatherNerdPR
3:29 PM GMT on September 25, 2011
Quoting 7544:
yucatan blob seems to be firing up hmmmmm

Ex-99L.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5626
880. j2008
3:28 PM GMT on September 25, 2011
Be back later. Philippe looks very organized this morning again one of the few TS this year to be this organized for this long. Ophelia's LLC is very invisible apparently, and Hilary continues to be a great looking storm. Be back later this afternoon.
Member Since: December 19, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 224
879. 7544
3:27 PM GMT on September 25, 2011
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
Storms starting to fire in the Miami area (actually all over South Florida). Looks like a stormy day forming.


thanks and looks whats to the east will it make it to the coast /?
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6690
878. luigi18
3:27 PM GMT on September 25, 2011
looking at Ophelia she don't look that bad she is making a intelligent move ,she is sipping the humidity in front of her she should be dead by now but she still alive.
Member Since: September 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 470
877. HuracanTaino
3:27 PM GMT on September 25, 2011
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
"Tropical Storm" Ophelia...
ha,ha,ha, ha, funny, :)
Member Since: May 31, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 824
876. BDADUDE
3:24 PM GMT on September 25, 2011
Member Since: September 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 602
875. HuracanTaino
3:22 PM GMT on September 25, 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Right.
Not so sure about that, we have had killer TD and tropical waves, do to land slides and massive floods. So anything that causes rain and stays stationary near or on top of us for a couple of days can be life threatening. Specially in Puerto Rico, an over populated island of 4 million people(american citezens by the way)with very high terrain and mountains.
Member Since: May 31, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 824
874. j2008
3:21 PM GMT on September 25, 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
How does it "remain dangerous" if it isn't affecting anybody? :P

BULLETIN
HURRICANE HILARY ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092011
800 AM PDT SUN SEP 25 2011

...HILARY REMAINS A DANGEROUS HURRICANE AS IT CONTINUES SLOWLY
WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.2N 109.2W
ABOUT 395 MI...640 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.14 INCHES

It may soon affect my area in AZ next week.
Member Since: December 19, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 224
873. Sfloridacat5
3:20 PM GMT on September 25, 2011
Storms starting to fire in the Miami area (actually all over South Florida). Looks like a stormy day forming.
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6079
872. 7544
3:18 PM GMT on September 25, 2011
yucatan blob seems to be firing up hmmmmm
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6690
871. luigi18
3:15 PM GMT on September 25, 2011
Quoting BDADUDE:
Seems like Ophelia is still staying on that Katia like track.


agree with a maria style!
Member Since: September 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 470
870. BDADUDE
3:15 PM GMT on September 25, 2011
Quoting Neapolitan:
As always, if the post-season analyses shows that Ophelia wasn't a tropical storm at this time, the official TCR will reflect that. For now, the folks at the NHC--who, after all, do this for a living--will keep Ophelia as a TS so long as they think it deserves it; if they're later proven wrong, the historical record will reflect that. I have to say, I don't think I understand the yelling and complaining going on; it's not as if anyone's life will be affected by whether the NHC calls it a TS, a TD, or a wave, right?

Right?
Seems like Ophelia is still staying on that Katia like track.
Member Since: September 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 602
869. HuracanTaino
3:13 PM GMT on September 25, 2011
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
But...why?
...OPHELIA MAKES A JOG TOWARD THE WEST BUT EXPECTED TO TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...
11:00 AM AST Sun Sep 25
Location: 18.3N 60.4W
Max sustained: 40 mph
Moving: Wt at 9 mph
Min pressure: 1008 mb
Have to admit that forecaster Mr. Stewart is very optimistic with Ophelia, if things comes out as he says they should begin posting advices to the islands, just in case. Don't you thinK?
Member Since: May 31, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 824
868. luigi18
3:08 PM GMT on September 25, 2011
Member Since: September 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 470
867. will40
3:06 PM GMT on September 25, 2011
imo the GFS has pretty much nailed Ophelia
Member Since: September 19, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 4110
866. WeatherNerdPR
3:06 PM GMT on September 25, 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Ex-99L with thunderstorms.

It won't give up. Expect it to be re-invested LOL
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5626
865. TropicalAnalystwx13
3:05 PM GMT on September 25, 2011
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
lol


Ex-99L with thunderstorms.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31453
864. GTcooliebai
3:05 PM GMT on September 25, 2011
Quoting islander101010:
it really does not matter in ten yrs no one will even remember this storm we only remember the majors
& TS Allison.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
863. WeatherNerdPR
3:04 PM GMT on September 25, 2011
lol
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5626

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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