Ophelia remains weak; TD 17 forms; dangerous Nesat headed for the Philippines

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:54 PM GMT on September 24, 2011

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There's not much change to Tropical Storm Ophelia today, which continues to battle dry air and high wind shear. Satellite imagery shows that Ophelia has little heavy thunderstorm activity near its low level circulation center, which is mostly exposed to view. Most of the storm's heavy thunderstorms are to the east of the center, with just a few puffs of thunderstorms occasionally popping up near the center. An analysis from the University of Wisconsin CIMMS group shows a high 20 - 25 knots of wind shear due to strong upper-level southwesterly winds. Water vapor satellite images show Ophelia is at the eastern edge of large area of very dry air.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Ophelia showing the low-level center exposed to view, with all the storm's heavy thunderstorms in a band several hundred miles to the east and south. This is not a healthy-looking tropical storm.

Forecast for Ophelia
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that Ophelia will experience high wind shear of 20 - 40 knots over the next five days, and will move into a region with slightly drier air. This combination of shear and dry air may be enough to dissipate Ophelia, as predicted by several of the models. However, Ophelia has maintained itself better than the models have predicted, so the storm will probably survive until at least Sunday. Even it Ophelia does dissipate, it will have the chance to regenerate by Tuesday or Wednesday, when it may encounter a region of lower wind shear. At this time, it appears that Ophelia will only be a threat to Bermuda.

TD 17 forms
Tropical Depression 17 formed in the far eastern Atlantic off the coast of Africa last night, and is likely to intensify into Tropical Storm Philippe later today. TD 17 has some impressive low-level spiral bands and upper-level outflow, and is very close to tropical storm strength. The predicted west-northwest to northwest track of TD 17 will put it in a position where historically, very few storms have ever gone on to hit land.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Hilary at 4:05 pm EDT September 23, 2011. At the time, Hilary was a Category 4 storm with 145 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Powerful Hurricane Hilary remains at Category 4 strength
In the Eastern Pacific, Hurricane Hilary remains an impressive Category 4 hurricane with 140 mph winds. Hilary is headed west, away from Mexico, and the storm is small enough that its outer bands are not causing flooding problems for Mexico. A trough of low pressure expected to move over the Western U.S. by the middle of the week may be strong enough to turn Hilary to the north, eventually bringing Hilary to Mexico's Baja Peninsula. The timing of this event is highly uncertain, though. Hilary is small enough that it is unlikely to bring significant drought relief to Arizona, New Mexico, and Texas if the storm's remnants move north into those states. Hilary is the fourth Category 4 hurricane in the Eastern Pacific this year, and the second strongest, behind Hurricane Dora, which had 155 mph winds.

Invest 91L set to soak North Carolina
A moderate amount of heavy thunderstorm activity has developed over the Northwestern Bahamas in association with the tail end of an old stalled front. This disturbance, Invest 91L, is under a low 5 - 10 knots of wind shear, but water vapor loops show a considerable amount of dry air to the east and west of the disturbance that will likely interfere with development. In their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 91L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday. The disturbance has only a short window to develop, as it is headed northwards and is expected to make landfall in North Carolina by Sunday afternoon. The 8 am EDT SHIPS model forecast predicts 91L will hit 35 knots of wind shear by Sunday morning, when the storm will be approaching the coast of North Carolina. Heavy rains from 91L may cause localized flooding in Morehead City, NC and surrounding regions. A moist flow of tropical air over the region has already brought rainfall amounts of 1 - 3 inches to much of Eastern North Carolina today.

Dangerous Tropical Storm Nesat headed for the Philippines
What may be the season's most dangerous storm in the Western Pacific, Tropical Storm Nesat, has formed about 700 miles east of the Philippine Islands. Nesat is under a moderate 10 knots of wind shear, is embedded in a very moist environment, has very warm sea surface temperatures of 30°C under it, and a very favorable upper-level outflow pattern above it. Nesat has plenty of time to intensify into a major typhoon before its expected landfall on Luzon Island in the Philippines on Tuesday morning.

I'll have an update before 2 pm Sunday afternoon.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Vincent4989:

I live in Luzon and i have only one word to say:


I don't like taking the DOOM attitude, but if you really do live there...you're screwed, simple as that.

Keep us updated if you can, but more importantly, STAY SAFE!

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32292
Quoting cat5hurricane:

You can get big waves and strong winds on a sunny day from a major hurricane 400 miles away that doesn't directly impact you.

Jose was a weak, pathetic system.
If Jose had hit the united states of america there would have been major damage.
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Quoting cat5hurricane:

Won't be significant enough to really have American under the gun be the time the season is about to depart.


Uh, 91L is likely to hit North Carolina, which, in the unlikely event it developed into Rina, would make four US landfalls. The long-term average is 2.3, I believe.
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By the way, I have a LOT of images on post #505, so do not quote it, just put the post number.

Miami, do you know if I got #666 the past couple of nights or not? :P
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32292
LOL.

Katia? A tropical storm? I love this blog...and hate it.

Now you see why I told everybody to put him on ignore earlier, and I got jumped for it.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32292
Quoting cat5hurricane:

Jose was the perfect example. That's the problem though. When you set the bar to those standards and govern with that criteria, then the successors this year ALSO must be governed by that criteria. NHC is just justifying an over-exaggerated season, yet again. It makes sense doesn't it?? Why would they want to lose an ounce of credibility of people who turn to them when it comes to them savings others' lives.
All I know is when they come out next year in the spring with ANOTHER in a long line of overhyped predictions for a BIG year, I'm tuning out. No more to do lists and trips to Home Depot for me. I know you now Chicken Little.
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Quoting JNCali:


I think the synoptic pattern governing Hilary is a bit different than Linda.
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A very dangerous storm is shaping up in the Western Pacific...This is going to be a very deadly and destructive system when it hits land in a few days.

Sorry for the long post of imagery, lol.

Visible:



Shortwave:



Water Vapor:



None:



AVN:



Dvorak:



JSL:



RGB:



Funktop:



Rainbow:

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32292
Quoting cat5hurricane:

Hardly. Not with those conditions out there. Those waves have been choking all year just to struggle to stay alive. Designating a system just to "designate it to meet a quota" does not count. It just doesn't.

And Katia reaching Hurricane strength was another example. When you set standards, you get gung-ho. Katia was a strong TS at best.


Katia a strong TS? LMFAO!!
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Oh yeah, meet me at tropics talk!
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Forget about the atlantic, Nesat and Hilary are one bada** looking storm,
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Quoting cat5hurricane:

Hardly. Not with those conditions out there. Those waves have been choking all year just to struggle to stay alive. Designating a system just to "designate it to meet a quota" does not count. It just doesn't.

And Katia reaching Hurricane strength was another example. When you set standards, you get gung-ho. Katia was a strong TS at best.
We have a bright one among us, guys! How do you justify that Katia was a strong tropical storm?

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Quoting cat5hurricane:
It's no different from last year, and likely to persist well into November. And by then, it won't matter.

Another Earl. Another 2010. Only this year with these systems curving OTS, these are weak, pathetic systems.


Unlike last year, we've actually had US landfalls. True, the mean pattern has still favored recurvature, but farther west than in 2010. That is a subtle but significant change in itself.
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Quoting cat5hurricane:

Hardly. Not with those conditions out there. Systems have been choking all year just to struggle to stay alive. Designating a system just to "designated it to meet a quota" does not count. It just doesn't.

And Katia reaching Hurricane strength was another example. When you set standards, you get gung-ho. Katia was a strong TS at best.
I live in Bermuda and Jose was a fairly potent storm. Big waves and strong wind.
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Quoting cat5hurricane:

Jose was the perfect example. That's the problem though. When you set the bar to those standards and govern with that criteria, then the successors this year ALSO must be governed by that criteria. NHC is just justifying an over-exaggerated season, yet again. It makes sense doesn't it?? Why would they want to lose an ounce of credibility of people who turn to them when it comes to them savings others' lives.


No it does not make sense, because all of the other storms fit the criteria they have used every single season

In fact in 2009 and 2010 you would have had a much bigger argument in terms of storms that were over-exaggerated. Go back and look and you will find more examples than you will this season.

We have had 16 named storms now and 15 of them were without a doubt tropical cyclones and would have been so in any basin.

How exactly is that over-hyping a season?
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Quoting caneswatch:


It is troll like. You've been repeating this since morning. Grow the hell up and stop blaming the government for every little thing about the weather.

Canes.
Forgive me if I am wrong but did you post a note earlier today/yesterday to say that you would be leaving the blog?
If you have left and therefore someone is acting as you, as an imposer then I will ignore their comments!
If this is really you and the imposer indicated that the real you was leaving,when you the real you was in no intension of doing so, than all I can say is I am so glad you are still here as we really value your input.
Plaza.
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Quoting cat5hurricane:
The way I see it. Ophelia = Fish.

Philipe = Fish.

Plus Philippe yet another example of the NHC padding numbers to try to justify yet ANOTHER overhyped, exaggerated 2011 outlook of all those predicted storms forming.

Disgraceful.


Out of all the systems this year, I can find only 1 that could have gone without being named and that was Jose

Other than that every single other system; while not strong; have definitely deserved names

The only thing padded hear is the room you should belong in.
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Quoting Levi32:


The season is a very long way from over too. We still have the possibility for a threat from the Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico during early October, and possibly more than one threat before that month is over.

I'm out for now. Back later.


Levi your analysis has been accurate regarding irene ,maria katia relative to Puerto Rico, what are your assertions regarding Ophelia she will move more westerly close to us?
Member Since: September 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 481
Hilary heading my way..
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I see we keep racking up names for the 2011 TC season.
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Nothing much going on as far as lower-level inflow goes.

If there's anything there, it's weak and ill-defined.
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Quoting AstroHurricane001:
In Arctic news, a pool of freshwater has been discovered in the Beaufort Sea, the region experiencing most melt since 2007 (paraphrased):

Link

Thanks for the Link on this one!
This might fall into the "Oh Dear," category?
If you put an area of freshwater in a vast area of salt water and you can maintain it through sustained ice melt then you might have the marine equivalent of a micro climate.
Needless to say the implications of this are endless and would keep a bunch of "experts," busy for lifetimes!
Desalination of the polar regions is going to be an anomaly of the future!
We, "the amateurs," of observation are as always attentive of any evidence of large masses of warm air that head into the frozen north/south but their influence on future climate through ice melt should not be underestimated!
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Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Your getting on my nerves. Please stop with these comments it getting almost troll like.




why not you this Ignore him
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By October 1st the AO/NAO should Go negative. The PNA should go positive. The Bermuda Ridge should greatly weaken or collapse by then. The troughs should strengthen in the East.

Bring on the cold fronts!!!
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hmmm... not sure what to think
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cute
lil
storm
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471. JLPR2
Quoting HuracanTaino:
Yes the circulation is getting close to the islands. Now , probably even if the COC hit some of them,like with TS Maria, TS Watches or warnings are not going to be issue...


Yeah, very light winds south of the LLC. All the action is to the NE.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8735
In addition, the economy crashed. Good evening blog.

For basic reference:



http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Provinces_of_the_Phi lippines



An additional note: the TD in South China Sea may affect the future path of soon-to-be Typhoon Nesat.
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In Arctic news, a pool of freshwater has been discovered in the Beaufort Sea, the region experiencing most melt since 2007 (paraphrased):

Link
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Quoting JLPR2:
Lesser Antilles getting some showers courtesy of Ophelia.
Yes the circulation is getting close to the islands. Now , probably even if the COC hit some of them,like with TS Maria, TS Watches or warnings are not going to be issue...
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Errr...




GFS the outlier!? First time in a while that a saw this...
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The sheer size and scale of pre-Typhoon Nesat frightens me. It currently lacks a dense core, but the whole storm is larger than the Philippines. If I were the JMA, I'd issue a typhoon watch for 70% of Philippines.

(Admins: technical bug report - my login session redirected me to the main WU page, rather than this blog, which is inconvenient. This coincided with my browser's inexplicable crash.)
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Quoting EYEStoSEA:

Evening Eyes:-
This north Atlantic circulation that keeps getting reflected in your visually informative posts might just be a sign of what is to come.Summers might just go round in endless circles in the north Atlantic!
Thinking about it as best I can not being any form of expert but a good observer then I do feel,"rather than think," that we might be experiencing the calm before the storms that are to come in the next few seasons?
So many systems have formed only to be neutralised by sheer or bad alignments to lack for a better word. With a bit of bad luck we could have be moaning about disasters right now; not boredom.
"Keeper," said months ago this would be a season to remember! not that I remember his exact words but I do think that we should count ourselves lucky that we got this far and nothing went the way it could have done.
Our thoughts go out out to all that continue to suffer in the Southern US from droughts and we wish that you should soon get some relife.
Oh almost forgot,"Evening All"
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.