Ophelia remains weak; TD 17 forms; dangerous Nesat headed for the Philippines

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:54 PM GMT on September 24, 2011

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There's not much change to Tropical Storm Ophelia today, which continues to battle dry air and high wind shear. Satellite imagery shows that Ophelia has little heavy thunderstorm activity near its low level circulation center, which is mostly exposed to view. Most of the storm's heavy thunderstorms are to the east of the center, with just a few puffs of thunderstorms occasionally popping up near the center. An analysis from the University of Wisconsin CIMMS group shows a high 20 - 25 knots of wind shear due to strong upper-level southwesterly winds. Water vapor satellite images show Ophelia is at the eastern edge of large area of very dry air.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Ophelia showing the low-level center exposed to view, with all the storm's heavy thunderstorms in a band several hundred miles to the east and south. This is not a healthy-looking tropical storm.

Forecast for Ophelia
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that Ophelia will experience high wind shear of 20 - 40 knots over the next five days, and will move into a region with slightly drier air. This combination of shear and dry air may be enough to dissipate Ophelia, as predicted by several of the models. However, Ophelia has maintained itself better than the models have predicted, so the storm will probably survive until at least Sunday. Even it Ophelia does dissipate, it will have the chance to regenerate by Tuesday or Wednesday, when it may encounter a region of lower wind shear. At this time, it appears that Ophelia will only be a threat to Bermuda.

TD 17 forms
Tropical Depression 17 formed in the far eastern Atlantic off the coast of Africa last night, and is likely to intensify into Tropical Storm Philippe later today. TD 17 has some impressive low-level spiral bands and upper-level outflow, and is very close to tropical storm strength. The predicted west-northwest to northwest track of TD 17 will put it in a position where historically, very few storms have ever gone on to hit land.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Hilary at 4:05 pm EDT September 23, 2011. At the time, Hilary was a Category 4 storm with 145 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Powerful Hurricane Hilary remains at Category 4 strength
In the Eastern Pacific, Hurricane Hilary remains an impressive Category 4 hurricane with 140 mph winds. Hilary is headed west, away from Mexico, and the storm is small enough that its outer bands are not causing flooding problems for Mexico. A trough of low pressure expected to move over the Western U.S. by the middle of the week may be strong enough to turn Hilary to the north, eventually bringing Hilary to Mexico's Baja Peninsula. The timing of this event is highly uncertain, though. Hilary is small enough that it is unlikely to bring significant drought relief to Arizona, New Mexico, and Texas if the storm's remnants move north into those states. Hilary is the fourth Category 4 hurricane in the Eastern Pacific this year, and the second strongest, behind Hurricane Dora, which had 155 mph winds.

Invest 91L set to soak North Carolina
A moderate amount of heavy thunderstorm activity has developed over the Northwestern Bahamas in association with the tail end of an old stalled front. This disturbance, Invest 91L, is under a low 5 - 10 knots of wind shear, but water vapor loops show a considerable amount of dry air to the east and west of the disturbance that will likely interfere with development. In their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 91L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday. The disturbance has only a short window to develop, as it is headed northwards and is expected to make landfall in North Carolina by Sunday afternoon. The 8 am EDT SHIPS model forecast predicts 91L will hit 35 knots of wind shear by Sunday morning, when the storm will be approaching the coast of North Carolina. Heavy rains from 91L may cause localized flooding in Morehead City, NC and surrounding regions. A moist flow of tropical air over the region has already brought rainfall amounts of 1 - 3 inches to much of Eastern North Carolina today.

Dangerous Tropical Storm Nesat headed for the Philippines
What may be the season's most dangerous storm in the Western Pacific, Tropical Storm Nesat, has formed about 700 miles east of the Philippine Islands. Nesat is under a moderate 10 knots of wind shear, is embedded in a very moist environment, has very warm sea surface temperatures of 30°C under it, and a very favorable upper-level outflow pattern above it. Nesat has plenty of time to intensify into a major typhoon before its expected landfall on Luzon Island in the Philippines on Tuesday morning.

I'll have an update before 2 pm Sunday afternoon.

Jeff Masters

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563. DFWjc
Quoting FrankZapper:
You kind of had it coming Taz. Use it constructively.


...but i like the New Orleans radar.... better than what we have here....
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Quoting AvidWeatherHound:


I prefer the NC falls where it stays mild thru the end of November. Strange weather this year in NC.


Tropical Storm Lee produced an EF1 tornado on the side of Stone Mountain on Labor Day. I considered that very strange.

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went fishing today and caught zip..come back and see we have a new invest heading to wilmington? great! more rain..
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No change with Ophelia -

AL, 16, 2011092500, , BEST, 0, 181N, 580W, 40, 1007, TS, 34, NEQ, 225, 100, 0, 120, 1011, 165, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, OPHELIA, M,
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32854
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32854
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The state of North Carolina is going to get really cold late this coming week as a strong Cold Front approaches.

Lows here in the 40s are possible, and I live near the coast.


I prefer the NC falls where it stays mild thru the end of November. Strange weather this year in NC.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


You live in the mountains, I presume?


Northern foothills, right on the east side of the Blue Ridge Mountains.
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Tropical Storm Philippe is very disorganized convective wise (intensity). However, with DMAX coming, count on a significantly improved satellite presentation during the day tomorrow.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32854
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The state of North Carolina is going to get really cold late this coming week as a strong Cold Front approaches.

Lows here in the 40s are possible, and I live near the coast.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32854
Quoting bambamwx:
Quoting Tazmanian:
may be it will help if you guys would PLZS stop Quoteing him and larn how too Ignor cat5hurricane: many of us have him on Ignor and mnay of you guys that dont no how too larn how too Ignor him then Quoteing him you guys by Quoteing him are all so bypassing are Ignor list by Quoteing him


plzs larn how too ues the Ignor that is what its there for




HAVE OF THE TIME I WISH THEY WOULD HAVE NEVERE PUT THE Quote ON THIS BLOG IN FAC I WISH THEY WOULD RE MOVE IT


Bahahahahahahaha.

Taz, I don't get you. You constantly complain about other folk. For example
they say fish, you say Poof
they say west, you say Poof
they say any thing against
the opinion of the blog, you say Poof.

As far as not quoting people on the blog you disagree with. You do it all the time. Few times today as a matter of fact.You are the biggest hypocrite on this blog and in my opinion, are worst than the troll itself.

The only other thing that is almost as bad as your poofs in the constant posting of that damn New Orleans radar. Geeze give it a break already. Nobody cares.

So Taz, you don't have to say Poof to me because I say POOF to my self.


This otta do it... To all a good night.....
img src="Middle finger dancing banana">

img src="Flipping the bird">
You kind of had it coming Taz. Use it constructively.
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Quoting Walshy:
First flakes of the season next week in the south-east?
(North Carolina Mountains)

US National Weather Service Blacksburg VA ...air is cold enough for a flurry but would likely have to be during the night IF the moisture and cold air coincide which looks iffy at this point. Got a lot of time to look at this to see how trends go with future models including the Euro.


You live in the mountains, I presume?
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Pure beast in every sense...
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Quoting JLPR2:
Hillary's eye seems to be filling in.



Still likely a Category 4 hurricane...Hasn't changed much today.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32854
First flakes of the season next week in the south-east?
(North Carolina Mountains)

US National Weather Service Blacksburg VA ...air is cold enough for a flurry but would likely have to be during the night IF the moisture and cold air coincide which looks iffy at this point. Got a lot of time to look at this to see how trends go with future models including the Euro.
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547. JLPR2
Hillary's eye seems to be filling in.

Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
Quoting SLU:
Let's be honest with ourselves ... if 91L was located elsewhere in the Atlantic it would not have been mentioned in the TWO, much less be shaded with an orange crayon as it was today....


I wouldn't be so sure.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32854
544. BDAwx
Quoting BDADUDE:
If Jose had hit the united states of america there would have been major damage.

I wouldn't say major damage, but I'd agree there would have been damage. 60mph gusts tend to do damage.

I think most of the extreme surf was due to the combination of Jose and Irene, rather than just Jose because Jose was small.
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Quoting wunderweatherman123:
haha thats funny. on that pic when katia was 135mph she really didnt look like a cat 4 to me. more like a 3. what about you? in the picture you posted of katia you think she looks like a 3 or 4?
Since the eye was still occluded with upper-level cirrus clouds, it gives the appearance of a weaker cyclone, but the 135mph intensity it had at that point sounds good.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
542. SLU
Let's be honest with ourselves ... if 91L was located elsewhere in the Atlantic it would not have been mentioned in the TWO, much less be shaded with an orange crayon as it was today....
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Quoting dfwstormwatch:

uh-oh gdfl has shifter westward just like the gfs! this is 18z gdfl at 72 hours...

remote linking disabled
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Quoting aspectre:
While waiting for the 12amGMT ATCF...

TS.Ophelia's_6pmGMT_ATCF : Starting 23Sept_6pmGMT and ending 24Sept_6pmGMT

The 4 eastern line-segments represent TropicalStormOphelia's path,
the westernmost line-segment is the straightline projection for 24Sept_6pmGMT,
the ocean half dot (midway top-edge) at 21.3n59.16w is the endpoint of the 12pmGMT straightline projection.

Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the
ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 12mGMT then 6pmGMT :
TS.Ophelia's travel-speed was 15.5mph(24.9k/h) on a heading of 278.7degrees(W)
TS.Ophelia was headed toward passing 3.9miles(6.3kilometres) north of NeckerIsland,BritishVirginIslands ~1days1hour from now

Copy&paste 21.3n59.16w, 15.3n53.2w-15.7n54.0w, 15.7n54.0w-16.5n54.7w, 16.5n54.7w-17.5n55.6w, 17.5n55.6w-17.7n57.0w, vij, 17.5n55.6w-18.587n64.356w, ngd into the GreatCircleMapper for more info
Ehat does this straightline projection have to do with anything?
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Interesting article on the plight of the polar animals.

Link

"Paul Nicklen makes friends with polar wildlife, photographing seals, polar bears, narwhals and others in remarkable closeups.

And Nicklen, a contributing photographer for the National Geographic, is passing along a message from the creatures he sees in the Arctic and Antarctica: They're in trouble."
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uh-oh gdfl has shifter westward just like the gfs! this is 18z gdfl at 72 hours...
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Quoting JLPR2:


Yeah, very light winds south of the LLC. All the action is to the NE.
Agree
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While waiting for the 25Sept_12amGMT ATCF...

TS.Ophelia's_6pmGMT_ATCF : Starting 23Sept_6pmGMT and ending 24Sept_6pmGMT

The 4 eastern line-segments represent TropicalStormOphelia's path,
the westernmost line-segment is the straightline projection for 24Sept_6pmGMT,
the dot (mid top-edge) at 21.3n59.16w is the endpoint of the 12pmGMT straightline projection.

Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the
ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 12pmGMT then 6pmGMT :
TS.Ophelia's travel-speed was 15.5mph(24.9k/h) on a heading of 278.7degrees(W)
TS.Ophelia was headed toward passing 3.9miles(6.3kilometres) north of NeckerIsland,BritishVirginIslands ~1days1hour from now

Copy&paste 21.3n59.16w, 15.3n53.2w-15.7n54.0w, 15.7n54.0w-16.5n54.7w, 16.5n54.7w-17.5n55.6w, 17.5n55.6w-17.7n57.0w, vij, 17.5n55.6w-18.587n64.356w, ngd into the GreatCircleMapper for more info
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Looks like a borderline Category 4 hurricane to me, which is what the NHC went with.


if the eye was less clouded i would of gone with a 4 but still she was a nice one to track. gfs is now showing the wstern carribean disturbance developing in the epac. that makes no sense given the fact pressure in north carolina are going to be 1020 + and by cuba they are 1010mb. levi talked about it in his tidbit so it would make more sense for the carribean storm to form in the carribean
Member Since: August 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1728
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

That's a bit generous, but whatever. Katia was nothing compared to Don.


I KNOW!

He was a monster!

BRB.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32854
Quoting KoritheMan:


Unlike last year, we've actually had US landfalls. True, the mean pattern has still favored recurvature, but farther west than in 2010. That is a subtle but significant change in itself.

Thank you1
We can look at this season in 2 ways{as many as you like if you care to slit hairs,}
1, The luck of the draw so far has left much of the US wild, wet and surviving. I do not for one moment discount the horrendous damage caused by Irene and lee etc. but it could have been a lot worse? I don't want to upset anybody as I seem to do sometimes but the greater scene of things is what is really happening now is that the stage is being set for a major upset in the balance of the heat distribution of the northern hemisphere.
2,The warm air is going to the far north and the cold regions will warm up to levels unprecedented in recent times.remeber it was warmer in Greenland than Florida in the winter this year at one point.
Your droughts and ours, {it hasn't rained in my village in Spain since April,}might cease to be rare events and become more usual.
Attention must be drawn to what is really happening and not what, "might have happened."
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so is moving west?17.9
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Nope...that's a little too high IMO.

Katia was AT BEST a 65 mph storm.

That's a bit generous, but whatever. Katia was nothing compared to Don.
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http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT16/refresh /AL1611W5_NL_sm2+gif/204221W5_NL_sm.gif
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Quoting KoritheMan:


I think the synoptic pattern governing Hilary is a bit different than Linda.
For sure.. It looks like we are forecast to have off shore flow about time we might have gotten some energy from her next week.. oh well
Member Since: September 9, 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 1034
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
haha thats funny. on that pic when katia was 135mph she really didnt look like a cat 4 to me. more like a 3. what about you? in the picture you posted of katia you think she looks like a 3 or 4?


Looks like a borderline Category 4 hurricane to me, which is what the NHC went with.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32854
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Wow, you do? Keep us informed and stay safe man.

Well since my father lives in a condominium unit with a generator, we always stay there when the power's out in the house.
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526. JLPR2
Quoting BDADUDE:
If Jose had hit the united states of america there would have been major damage.


Yeah, Jose's circulation was amazing, considering it was naked most of the time before getting designated.

Here is Jose, as 91L the afternoon of the day before it got labeled Jose.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
Again, image credit to P451:



^ 48 hours of Hurricane Hilary
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32854
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
We have a bright one among us, guys! How do you justify that Katia was a strong tropical storm?

haha thats funny. on that pic when katia was 135mph she really didnt look like a cat 4 to me. more like a 3. what about you? in the picture you posted of katia you think she looks like a 3 or 4?
Member Since: August 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1728

what up with the gfs? maybe it's in a doom mode...
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UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 24 SEP 2011 Time : 231500 UTC
Lat : 11:18:37 N Lon : 28:18:29 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.3 /1001.1mb/ 51.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.2 2.8 1.5

Center Temp : -38.2C Cloud Region Temp : -30.7C

Scene Type : SHEAR (>1.25^ TO DG)
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Quoting JLPR2:


Pfft...
Of course, this was 70mph at best. XD LOL!


Nope...that's a little too high IMO.

Katia was AT BEST a 65 mph storm.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32854
520. JLPR2
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
We have a bright one among us, guys! How do you justify that Katia was a strong tropical storm?



Pfft...
Of course, this was 70mph at best. XD LOL!
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


No...you are not, lol. :P

Hey.

91L back to 20%? Poor little invest.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
lol, back to 20% Yellow:

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM THE BAHAMAS NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES ARE ASSOCIATED WITH
AN ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE AREA. THIS DISTURBANCE HAS NOT BECOME ANY
BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR DEVELOPMENT HAS DIMINISHED. INSTEAD...THERE IS A STRONG
LIKELIHOOD THAT IT WILL BECOME ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT
...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.



well so march for 91L RIP
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

I'm guessing I'm not the only one who's obsessed with post #666.
Bonsoir everyone.


No...you are not, lol. :P

Hey.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32854
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
By the way, I have a LOT of images on post #505, so do not quote it, just put the post number.

Miami, do you know if I got #666 the past couple of nights or not? :P

I'm guessing I'm not the only one who's obsessed with post #666.
Bonsoir everyone.
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lol, back to 20% Yellow:

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM THE BAHAMAS NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES ARE ASSOCIATED WITH
AN ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE AREA. THIS DISTURBANCE HAS NOT BECOME ANY
BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR DEVELOPMENT HAS DIMINISHED. INSTEAD...THERE IS A STRONG
LIKELIHOOD THAT IT WILL BECOME ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT
...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32854
Quoting Vincent4989:

I live in Luzon and i have only one word to say:
Wow, you do? Keep us informed and stay safe man.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting Vincent4989:

I live in Luzon and i have only one word to say:


I don't like taking the DOOM attitude, but if you really do live there...you're screwed, simple as that.

Keep us updated if you can, but more importantly, STAY SAFE!

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32854

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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