Ophelia remains weak; TD 17 forms; dangerous Nesat headed for the Philippines

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:54 PM GMT on September 24, 2011

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There's not much change to Tropical Storm Ophelia today, which continues to battle dry air and high wind shear. Satellite imagery shows that Ophelia has little heavy thunderstorm activity near its low level circulation center, which is mostly exposed to view. Most of the storm's heavy thunderstorms are to the east of the center, with just a few puffs of thunderstorms occasionally popping up near the center. An analysis from the University of Wisconsin CIMMS group shows a high 20 - 25 knots of wind shear due to strong upper-level southwesterly winds. Water vapor satellite images show Ophelia is at the eastern edge of large area of very dry air.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Ophelia showing the low-level center exposed to view, with all the storm's heavy thunderstorms in a band several hundred miles to the east and south. This is not a healthy-looking tropical storm.

Forecast for Ophelia
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that Ophelia will experience high wind shear of 20 - 40 knots over the next five days, and will move into a region with slightly drier air. This combination of shear and dry air may be enough to dissipate Ophelia, as predicted by several of the models. However, Ophelia has maintained itself better than the models have predicted, so the storm will probably survive until at least Sunday. Even it Ophelia does dissipate, it will have the chance to regenerate by Tuesday or Wednesday, when it may encounter a region of lower wind shear. At this time, it appears that Ophelia will only be a threat to Bermuda.

TD 17 forms
Tropical Depression 17 formed in the far eastern Atlantic off the coast of Africa last night, and is likely to intensify into Tropical Storm Philippe later today. TD 17 has some impressive low-level spiral bands and upper-level outflow, and is very close to tropical storm strength. The predicted west-northwest to northwest track of TD 17 will put it in a position where historically, very few storms have ever gone on to hit land.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Hilary at 4:05 pm EDT September 23, 2011. At the time, Hilary was a Category 4 storm with 145 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Powerful Hurricane Hilary remains at Category 4 strength
In the Eastern Pacific, Hurricane Hilary remains an impressive Category 4 hurricane with 140 mph winds. Hilary is headed west, away from Mexico, and the storm is small enough that its outer bands are not causing flooding problems for Mexico. A trough of low pressure expected to move over the Western U.S. by the middle of the week may be strong enough to turn Hilary to the north, eventually bringing Hilary to Mexico's Baja Peninsula. The timing of this event is highly uncertain, though. Hilary is small enough that it is unlikely to bring significant drought relief to Arizona, New Mexico, and Texas if the storm's remnants move north into those states. Hilary is the fourth Category 4 hurricane in the Eastern Pacific this year, and the second strongest, behind Hurricane Dora, which had 155 mph winds.

Invest 91L set to soak North Carolina
A moderate amount of heavy thunderstorm activity has developed over the Northwestern Bahamas in association with the tail end of an old stalled front. This disturbance, Invest 91L, is under a low 5 - 10 knots of wind shear, but water vapor loops show a considerable amount of dry air to the east and west of the disturbance that will likely interfere with development. In their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 91L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday. The disturbance has only a short window to develop, as it is headed northwards and is expected to make landfall in North Carolina by Sunday afternoon. The 8 am EDT SHIPS model forecast predicts 91L will hit 35 knots of wind shear by Sunday morning, when the storm will be approaching the coast of North Carolina. Heavy rains from 91L may cause localized flooding in Morehead City, NC and surrounding regions. A moist flow of tropical air over the region has already brought rainfall amounts of 1 - 3 inches to much of Eastern North Carolina today.

Dangerous Tropical Storm Nesat headed for the Philippines
What may be the season's most dangerous storm in the Western Pacific, Tropical Storm Nesat, has formed about 700 miles east of the Philippine Islands. Nesat is under a moderate 10 knots of wind shear, is embedded in a very moist environment, has very warm sea surface temperatures of 30°C under it, and a very favorable upper-level outflow pattern above it. Nesat has plenty of time to intensify into a major typhoon before its expected landfall on Luzon Island in the Philippines on Tuesday morning.

I'll have an update before 2 pm Sunday afternoon.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Q: Will the United States get hit by another hurricane before the season is out?

A. Yes
B. No
C. Unsure

I have to go with A.
There is a chance in October.But after October chances go down to at least 20%
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
612. DFWjc
Quoting FrankZapper:
It's just like Disney World. Only better.

Got to go. I hear a parade coming right now!


I like it mostly for the music, I am trying some food that i haven't had before... Nice town to chill in, and the historic places are nice. Not to forget the weather is nice this time of year...(and no the humidity doesn't bother me)

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Q: Will the United States get hit by another hurricane before the season is out?

A. Yes
B. No
C. Unsure

I have to go with A.


I'm going with A
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Q: Will the United States get hit by another hurricane before the season is out?

A. Yes
B. No
C. Unsure

I have to go with A.

B. NO
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Q: Will the United States get hit by another hurricane before the season is out?

A. Yes
B. No
C. Unsure

I have to go with A.



i pick A



Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115073
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
No change with Ophelia -

AL, 16, 2011092500, , BEST, 0, 181N, 580W, 40, 1007, TS, 34, NEQ, 225, 100, 0, 120, 1011, 165, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, OPHELIA, M,





sure there is


5:00 PM AST Sat Sep 24
Location: 17.9°N 57.4°W
Max sustained: 45 mph
Moving: WNW at 12 mph
Min pressure: 1006 m
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115073
Q: Will the United States get hit by another hurricane before the season is out?

A. Yes
B. No
C. Unsure

I have to go with A.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31993
Quoting DFWjc:


I'm originally from Houston and I love the weather that comes in off of the Gulf...It's really hard to explain...brings back a lot of good memories (sighs). But the only time I went to NOLA, was so, i hate to use the word awesome..i guess you could say i was awe-struck! Wonderful town....can't wait to go back again...
It's just like Disney World. Only better.

Got to go. I hear a parade coming right now!
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Yeah...seems like really rapid intensification, huh?
given ssts are 86 and higher and there is an anticyclone over it then its possible. hilary looks like tomorrow she will fall to a 3 and i think she will maintain a 3 for the rest of tomorrow.
Member Since: August 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1717
Quoting washingtonian115:
That typhoon needs to go to hell.Causing havoc on those people like that.This is one thing I don't like about weather.You have to see it in action and you can't do anything about it.


Well...Maybe if everybody on the coast bought a lot of fans and turned them on high, it would create enough wind shear to destroy the system.

Yeah right...LOL.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31993
602. DFWjc
Quoting FrankZapper:
I knew you would like it.

You really liked it?


I'm originally from Houston and I love the weather that comes in off of the Gulf...It's really hard to explain...brings back a lot of good memories (sighs). But the only time I went to NOLA, was so, i hate to use the word awesome..i guess you could say i was awe-struck! Wonderful town....can't wait to go back again...
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Yeah...seems like really rapid intensification, huh?
That typhoon needs to go to hell.Causing havoc on those people like that.This is one thing I don't like about weather.You have to see it in action and you can't do anything about it.
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600. DFWjc
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Huge Fire Alert for Most of Texas Sunday, temps in 100s here with 25 to 35 mph winds and bone dry humidity. Pretty big fire burning south of me now, 99 here today. Texas will continue to burn until we get widespread rains.


I love that Monday will only be 89 here...My first Monday night to work at the Stadium and I officially got promoted today and it's going to be cool and windy on my first day as Supe!!! Now if the big wigs don't hover over my shoulder it will be a great weather day for me!!!
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Quoting klew136:
This is late Sept. are you not suppose to get cooler.

Generally yes, but most years Sept in N.C. is remembered for being hot and dry month.
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Quoting DFWjc:



I could stare at that all night long....
I knew you would like it.

You really liked it?
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If any country is the most used to tropical cyclones, it's the Philippines.

It's hit by twenty tropical cyclones a year. That's two-zero, twenty. Being hit by a hyperactive Atlantic hurricane season on an annual basis. They probably feel that it's so regular, it's enough to put it as the third entity in the list of inevitables, being preceded by death and taxes.

Still, best of luck to them.
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Quoting Tazmanian:



yes there is

2:00 PM PDT Sat Sep 24
Location: 16.9°N 106.8°W
Max sustained: 135 mph
Moving: W at 9 mph
Min pressure: 951 mb


Okay, it dropped a millibar :P
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31993
Huge Fire Alert for Most of Texas Sunday, temps in 100s here with 25 to 35 mph winds and bone dry humidity. Pretty big fire burning south of me now, 99 here today. Texas will continue to burn until we get widespread rains.
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Quoting wunderweatherman123:
i just want to see how strong it gets before hitting the philipenes. it has about 30 hours. the forecast is for it to be a cat 4....


Yeah...seems like really rapid intensification, huh?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31993
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
No change with Hilary either -

EP, 09, 2011092500, , BEST, 0, 170N, 1073W, 115, 950, HU, 64, NEQ, 30, 25, 20, 25, 1009, 150, 10, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, HILARY, D,



yes there is

2:00 PM PDT Sat Sep 24
Location: 16.9°N 106.8°W
Max sustained: 135 mph
Moving: W at 9 mph
Min pressure: 951 mb
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115073
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Also, its not "about" to hit the Philippines...It still has until Monday. :P
i just want to see how strong it gets before hitting the philipenes. it has about 30 hours. the forecast is for it to be a cat 4....
Member Since: August 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1717
591. DFWjc
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
CA want to hang with HI, Alaska can come to.


but someone once told me you could see Russia from Alaska too...are they invited?
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590. DFWjc
Quoting FrankZapper:

Is FOX 8 radar OK?


(begin sarcasm)
I could stare at that all night long....
(end of sarcasm)
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Quoting Chapelhill:


It looks to be a 1030 mb high straight from the Yukon! Often early cold outbreaks modify very quickly. Time will tell.
This is late Sept. are you not suppose to get cooler.

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Joint Typhoon Warning Center: 65 mph

Japan Meteorological Agency: 60 mph
looks like a cat 1 typhoon to me
Member Since: August 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1717
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
what about the tropical storm about to hit the philipenes? last i know it was 65mph. do u know if that changed?


Also, its not "about" to hit the Philippines...It still has until Monday. :P
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31993
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The state of North Carolina is going to get really cold late this coming week as a strong Cold Front approaches.

Lows here in the 40s are possible, and I live near the coast.
I do believe that my area this winter will be quite cold.This reminds me of the summers before some of our coldest winters up here in D.C.It get's very hot during the summer and then quickly cools off in late summer into early fall...and from there it surly gets`colder.I wouldn't be surprised to catch a snowstorm sometime in December in this part of the east.As to when...Well I don't know.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The state of North Carolina is going to get really cold late this coming week as a strong Cold Front approaches.

Lows here in the 40s are possible, and I live near the coast.


It looks to be a 1030 mb high straight from the Yukon! Often early cold outbreaks modify very quickly. Time will tell.
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Quoting wunderweatherman123:
what about the tropical storm about to hit the philipenes? last i know it was 65mph. do u know if that changed?


Joint Typhoon Warning Center: 65 mph

Japan Meteorological Agency: 60 mph
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31993
Quoting DFWjc:


...but i like the New Orleans radar.... better than what we have here....

Is FOX 8 radar OK?
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Quoting DFWjc:


yeah, didn't you know the ATL is growing and the PAC is shrinking?
CA want to hang with HI, Alaska can come to.
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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Strange Ophelia...



yeap lets see how much rain she will bring to us here in Puerto Rico
Member Since: September 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 481
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
No change with Hilary either -

EP, 09, 2011092500, , BEST, 0, 170N, 1073W, 115, 950, HU, 64, NEQ, 30, 25, 20, 25, 1009, 150, 10, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, HILARY, D,
what about the tropical storm about to hit the philipenes? last i know it was 65mph. do u know if that changed?
Member Since: August 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1717
540 BDADUDE "What does this straightline projection have to do with anything?"

"Given that my straightline projections are neither forecasts nor XTRPs, time to discuss their utility..." comment (linked) already addressed that question
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No change with Philippe either...(I'm getting bored saying that, lol).

AL, 17, 2011092500, , BEST, 0, 112N, 285W, 35, 1006, TS, 34, NEQ, 40, 0, 0, 40, 1012, 200, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, PHILIPPE, M,
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31993
These last two years have reminded me of when I moved to South Fla, in the Keys, 1979 we did not see a hurricane at least until the 90's then all heck came loose, I am liking this pattern very much, I am hoping the shield will stay put. I am intrigued with weather, but I do not like hurricanes hurting any of us.
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575. DFWjc
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Strange Ophelia...



fetus mode again, that's the 2nd storm to do this...
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574. DFWjc
Quoting JNCali:
Noticing lots of quakes around PR.. is this normal??


yeah, didn't you know the ATL is growing and the PAC is shrinking?
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Quoting Chicklit:

done for the day.
goodnight.


Good night.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31993
Strange Ophelia...

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done for the day.
goodnight.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


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Is Phillippe gonna make it past the Mid Atlantic Ridge?
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No change with Hilary either -

EP, 09, 2011092500, , BEST, 0, 170N, 1073W, 115, 950, HU, 64, NEQ, 30, 25, 20, 25, 1009, 150, 10, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, HILARY, D,
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31993
Quoting JNCali:
Noticing lots of quakes around PR.. is this normal??


not really
Member Since: September 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 481
Quoting Walshy:


Tropical Storm Lee produced an EF1 tornado on the side of Stone Mountain on Labor Day. I considered that very strange.



Strange indeed. Makes me wonder what this winter will be like. I do not want the amount of snow I had last winter.
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Noticing lots of quakes around PR.. is this normal??
Member Since: September 9, 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 1034
564. JLPR2
Wind-shear dropped to 15-20knots over most of Ophelia.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8687
563. DFWjc
Quoting FrankZapper:
You kind of had it coming Taz. Use it constructively.


...but i like the New Orleans radar.... better than what we have here....
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.