Ophelia remains weak; TD 17 forms; dangerous Nesat headed for the Philippines

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:54 PM GMT on September 24, 2011

Share this Blog
17
+

There's not much change to Tropical Storm Ophelia today, which continues to battle dry air and high wind shear. Satellite imagery shows that Ophelia has little heavy thunderstorm activity near its low level circulation center, which is mostly exposed to view. Most of the storm's heavy thunderstorms are to the east of the center, with just a few puffs of thunderstorms occasionally popping up near the center. An analysis from the University of Wisconsin CIMMS group shows a high 20 - 25 knots of wind shear due to strong upper-level southwesterly winds. Water vapor satellite images show Ophelia is at the eastern edge of large area of very dry air.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Ophelia showing the low-level center exposed to view, with all the storm's heavy thunderstorms in a band several hundred miles to the east and south. This is not a healthy-looking tropical storm.

Forecast for Ophelia
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that Ophelia will experience high wind shear of 20 - 40 knots over the next five days, and will move into a region with slightly drier air. This combination of shear and dry air may be enough to dissipate Ophelia, as predicted by several of the models. However, Ophelia has maintained itself better than the models have predicted, so the storm will probably survive until at least Sunday. Even it Ophelia does dissipate, it will have the chance to regenerate by Tuesday or Wednesday, when it may encounter a region of lower wind shear. At this time, it appears that Ophelia will only be a threat to Bermuda.

TD 17 forms
Tropical Depression 17 formed in the far eastern Atlantic off the coast of Africa last night, and is likely to intensify into Tropical Storm Philippe later today. TD 17 has some impressive low-level spiral bands and upper-level outflow, and is very close to tropical storm strength. The predicted west-northwest to northwest track of TD 17 will put it in a position where historically, very few storms have ever gone on to hit land.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Hilary at 4:05 pm EDT September 23, 2011. At the time, Hilary was a Category 4 storm with 145 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Powerful Hurricane Hilary remains at Category 4 strength
In the Eastern Pacific, Hurricane Hilary remains an impressive Category 4 hurricane with 140 mph winds. Hilary is headed west, away from Mexico, and the storm is small enough that its outer bands are not causing flooding problems for Mexico. A trough of low pressure expected to move over the Western U.S. by the middle of the week may be strong enough to turn Hilary to the north, eventually bringing Hilary to Mexico's Baja Peninsula. The timing of this event is highly uncertain, though. Hilary is small enough that it is unlikely to bring significant drought relief to Arizona, New Mexico, and Texas if the storm's remnants move north into those states. Hilary is the fourth Category 4 hurricane in the Eastern Pacific this year, and the second strongest, behind Hurricane Dora, which had 155 mph winds.

Invest 91L set to soak North Carolina
A moderate amount of heavy thunderstorm activity has developed over the Northwestern Bahamas in association with the tail end of an old stalled front. This disturbance, Invest 91L, is under a low 5 - 10 knots of wind shear, but water vapor loops show a considerable amount of dry air to the east and west of the disturbance that will likely interfere with development. In their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 91L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday. The disturbance has only a short window to develop, as it is headed northwards and is expected to make landfall in North Carolina by Sunday afternoon. The 8 am EDT SHIPS model forecast predicts 91L will hit 35 knots of wind shear by Sunday morning, when the storm will be approaching the coast of North Carolina. Heavy rains from 91L may cause localized flooding in Morehead City, NC and surrounding regions. A moist flow of tropical air over the region has already brought rainfall amounts of 1 - 3 inches to much of Eastern North Carolina today.

Dangerous Tropical Storm Nesat headed for the Philippines
What may be the season's most dangerous storm in the Western Pacific, Tropical Storm Nesat, has formed about 700 miles east of the Philippine Islands. Nesat is under a moderate 10 knots of wind shear, is embedded in a very moist environment, has very warm sea surface temperatures of 30°C under it, and a very favorable upper-level outflow pattern above it. Nesat has plenty of time to intensify into a major typhoon before its expected landfall on Luzon Island in the Philippines on Tuesday morning.

I'll have an update before 2 pm Sunday afternoon.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 663 - 613

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19Blog Index

Satellite presentation with Philippe has been improving the last few frames. A poleward outflow is being established. 40 at 11 IMO, but could be 45-60 tomorrow.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JLPR2:
If a circulation were under the convection I would be worried.


she is ok
Member Since: September 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 483
Ophelia is not going to follow the rules!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Most Recent Positions Regardless of Basin:

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
25/0000 UTC 17.0N 107.3W T6.0/6.0 HILARY -- East Pacific
25/0000 UTC 11.7N 27.8W T1.5/2.0 PHILIPPE -- Atlantic
24/2345 UTC 29.5N 78.1W TOO WEAK 91L -- Atlantic
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


LOL Taz.

Are you going to share that pizza with us? XD




sure if you want to do the lazy dish when done
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I think 91L was deactivated, no 00Z update. And no, it doesn't say it was deactivated on the ATCF site.

Well, it looks like crap. I think this thing is the meteorological definition of "crap".
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
657. JLPR2
If a circulation were under the convection I would be worried.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
Guys...start talking...

I think 91L was deactivated, no 00Z update. And no, it doesn't say it was deactivated on the ATCF site.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32863
Quoting Tazmanian:



hey whats up



am cooking some lazy pizza that dos not want too do it on its own


LOL Taz.

Are you going to share that pizza with us? XD
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32863
654. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #6
TROPICAL STORM HAITANG (T1118)
9:00 AM JST September 25 2011
=================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In South China Sea

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Haitang (996 hPa) located at 16.1N 112.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east northeast slowly

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
===============
150 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

24 HRS: 16.1N 110.9E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 16.5N 108.6E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
72 HRS: 16.9N 105.7E - Tropical Depression
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
653. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #13
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM NESAT (T1117)
9:00 AM JST September 25 2011
=================================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 0:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Nesat (985 hPa) located at 14.8N 130.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 12 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Gale Force Winds
================
150 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

24 HRS: 15.8N 126.2E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon)
48 HRS: 17.1N 122.3E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon)
72 HRS: 18.0N 118.3E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon)

Additional Information
=======================

Severe tropical storm will decelerate for the next 24 hours

Severe tropical storm will move west northwest for the next 72 hours

Severe tropical storm will be upgraded to typhoon within 24 hours

Severe tropical storm will develop because central dense overcast has expanded and cyclone will stay in high sea surface temperature area

Final initial Dvorak number will be 4.5 after 24 hours
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

My Forecast:
Days 1-7:Ophelia does whatever the hell she wants.
I give up. Lol

Ha. Maybe in this new incarnation she can give North Carolina another visit.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Q: Will the United States get hit by another hurricane before the season is out?

A. Yes
B. No
C. Unsure

I have to go with A.


No, and you're doing it again.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BDADUDE:

Link

Link to hurricane spider information.


In florida, we call them banana Spiders. One time, as a youth, i was running through the woods with my brother, ahead of him. He yelled, "STOP!" And then he said, "turn slowly..." I turned and right in front of my face was a HUGE banana spider, in the center of her web. I screamed.. it was darn scary.. They like to build their webs on branches low to the ground or just above it, so watch where you walk when you come here to Florida. they can get very large! Maybe thats the same spider as in the islands, but with a different name.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
648. JLPR2
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

My Forecast:
Days 1-7:Ophelia does whatever the hell she wants.
I give up. Lol


LOL!
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
Quoting JLPR2:


Maybe the center is trying to reform under the convection or close to it?

I'm not sure what to think of Ophelia anymore. xD


very confused as well
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6456
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Hey Taz!
Hi.



hey whats up



am cooking some lazy pizza that dos not want too do it on its own
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I'm wondering what Ophelia is doing on my doorstep..
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6456

Quoting BDADUDE:

Link

Link to hurricane spider information.



That was pretty cool, I already knew about their web building habits as old "cracker" lore, but did not know about their Bermuda name. Here is a link to a banana spider picture, its the same one.

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:




Hey capeflorida


POOF!!!!!!!!!!
Hey Taz!
Hi.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting capeflorida:
Hey Taz.-

POOF !!!!!!


Random?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32863
Quoting capeflorida:
Hey Taz.-

POOF !!!!!!




Hey capeflorida


POOF!!!!!!!!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JLPR2:


Maybe the center is trying to reform under the convection or close to it?

I'm not sure what to think of Ophelia anymore. xD

My Forecast:
Days 1-7:Ophelia does whatever the hell she wants.
I give up. Lol
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
637. JLPR2
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Ophelia looks like a potato that got run over by a truck.


Maybe the center is trying to reform under the convection or close to it?

I'm not sure what to think of Ophelia anymore. xD
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
Quoting viman:


3 more - 2 in October - 1 in November
I'm predicting 4 in October.This season has thrown everyone some surprises.This is the season where anything that want's to become a tropical cyclone has the green light to go ahead a do so.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


Looking at the satellite, I was wondering how you were faring... it looked like a rumble rumble rainy day.

I felt "cooler" air breezing in here also today.
We got a lot of rumbles all day.... heavy rain then steady rain both this a.m. and p.m. Most genuinely typical rainy season weather we've had all year. This week has been the first where we've had afternoon popup showers... u know, where it rains like the dickens for 15 minutes, then 15 minutes later u only have a few steaming puddles as proof it actually rained....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting washingtonian115:
Taz I said after October.November to be precise.





ok
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:



huh? no oct is like the highets ch the usa has for land falling hurricane
Taz I said after October.November to be precise.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Ophelia looks like a potato that got run over by a truck.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
Quoting BDADUDE:
Do you think it will make it past the mid-Atlantic Ridge?
Dunno.... NHC track looks good for now. But I'd like to see how fast this approaching trough clears out of our area, since that's likely to influence both Ophelia and eventually Phillippe.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2011SEP25 004500 3.1 998.8/ +0.0 / 47.0 2.9 3.4 3.4 NO LIMIT ON OFF -64.49 -35.84 SHEAR N/A 11.34 28.62 FCST

25/0000 UTC 11.7N 27.8W T1.5/2.0 PHILIPPE

40-45 knots seems likely at 11PM...Although they may leave it at 35 knots because of the poor satellite presentation at this time.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32863
Quoting indianrivguy:


banana spider

Link

Link to hurricane spider information.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BahaHurican:
I also noticed the upgrade to Phillippe.... That storm's got good presentation... I would not be surprised to see it make a run at major status, though whether or not it actually gets there will depend a lot on what conditions are like east of PR in 3 days....
Do you think it will make it past the mid-Atlantic Ridge?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BahaHurican:
Evening all.... we had a very rainy afternoon here, but things have slacked off since about 7 p.m. My yard is flooded... lol...

I notice NHC has taken this area down to 20% since I went out, which is a good sign. Hopefully the heavier rain has moved off to the north and whatever else we get is light. I'm kinda glad for the continued overcast, though... sure beats 95 degree highs...


Looking at the satellite, I was wondering how you were faring... it looked like a rumble rumble rainy day.

I felt "cooler" air breezing in here also today.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting viman:


3 more - 2 in October - 1 in November


I've got to agree with that one.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32863
Quoting BDADUDE:
A Hurricane Spider.


banana spider
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I also noticed the upgrade to Phillippe.... That storm's got good presentation... I would not be surprised to see it make a run at major status, though whether or not it actually gets there will depend a lot on what conditions are like east of PR in 3 days....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
623. viman
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Q: Will the United States get hit by another hurricane before the season is out?

A. Yes
B. No
C. Unsure

I have to go with A.


3 more - 2 in October - 1 in November
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Evening all.... we had a very rainy afternoon here, but things have slacked off since about 7 p.m. My yard is flooded... lol...

I notice NHC has taken this area down to 20% since I went out, which is a good sign. Hopefully the heavier rain has moved off to the north and whatever else we get is light. I'm kinda glad for the continued overcast, though... sure beats 95 degree highs...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Q: Will the United States get hit by another hurricane before the season is out?

A. Yes
B. No
C. Unsure

I have to go with A.
a and ill go with 2 hurricanes. same pattern as last year. not the steering but la nina and octobers. we got richard paula otto shary and tomas as hurricanes. there is a good chance we get hit by a major aswell. the steering would favor a sw florida hit and water temps are still OVER 85 degress. if shear cooperates then yes
Member Since: August 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1728
Quoting Tazmanian:





wish part?




What she is saying is that there is a chance for a USA hurricane landfall in October, but the chances significantly decrease in November.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32863
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


AFTER October, Taz.





wish part?


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Ophelia's T-numbers are rising...Almost the highest they've been in her entire life.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32863
Quoting Tazmanian:



huh? no oct is like the highets ch the usa has for land falling hurricane


AFTER October, Taz.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32863
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32863
Quoting washingtonian115:
There is a chance in October.But after October chances go down to at least 20%



huh? no oct is like the highets ch the usa has for land falling hurricane
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Q: Will the United States get hit by another hurricane before the season is out?

A. Yes
B. No
C. Unsure

I have to go with A.
There is a chance in October.But after October chances go down to at least 20%
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 663 - 613

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
47 °F
Overcast

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Lake Effort Snow Shower Over Windsor, Ontario
Sunset on Dunham Lake
Pictured Rocks Sunset
Sunset on Lake Huron