Ophelia remains weak; TD 17 forms; dangerous Nesat headed for the Philippines

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:54 PM GMT on September 24, 2011

Share this Blog
17
+

There's not much change to Tropical Storm Ophelia today, which continues to battle dry air and high wind shear. Satellite imagery shows that Ophelia has little heavy thunderstorm activity near its low level circulation center, which is mostly exposed to view. Most of the storm's heavy thunderstorms are to the east of the center, with just a few puffs of thunderstorms occasionally popping up near the center. An analysis from the University of Wisconsin CIMMS group shows a high 20 - 25 knots of wind shear due to strong upper-level southwesterly winds. Water vapor satellite images show Ophelia is at the eastern edge of large area of very dry air.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Ophelia showing the low-level center exposed to view, with all the storm's heavy thunderstorms in a band several hundred miles to the east and south. This is not a healthy-looking tropical storm.

Forecast for Ophelia
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that Ophelia will experience high wind shear of 20 - 40 knots over the next five days, and will move into a region with slightly drier air. This combination of shear and dry air may be enough to dissipate Ophelia, as predicted by several of the models. However, Ophelia has maintained itself better than the models have predicted, so the storm will probably survive until at least Sunday. Even it Ophelia does dissipate, it will have the chance to regenerate by Tuesday or Wednesday, when it may encounter a region of lower wind shear. At this time, it appears that Ophelia will only be a threat to Bermuda.

TD 17 forms
Tropical Depression 17 formed in the far eastern Atlantic off the coast of Africa last night, and is likely to intensify into Tropical Storm Philippe later today. TD 17 has some impressive low-level spiral bands and upper-level outflow, and is very close to tropical storm strength. The predicted west-northwest to northwest track of TD 17 will put it in a position where historically, very few storms have ever gone on to hit land.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Hilary at 4:05 pm EDT September 23, 2011. At the time, Hilary was a Category 4 storm with 145 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Powerful Hurricane Hilary remains at Category 4 strength
In the Eastern Pacific, Hurricane Hilary remains an impressive Category 4 hurricane with 140 mph winds. Hilary is headed west, away from Mexico, and the storm is small enough that its outer bands are not causing flooding problems for Mexico. A trough of low pressure expected to move over the Western U.S. by the middle of the week may be strong enough to turn Hilary to the north, eventually bringing Hilary to Mexico's Baja Peninsula. The timing of this event is highly uncertain, though. Hilary is small enough that it is unlikely to bring significant drought relief to Arizona, New Mexico, and Texas if the storm's remnants move north into those states. Hilary is the fourth Category 4 hurricane in the Eastern Pacific this year, and the second strongest, behind Hurricane Dora, which had 155 mph winds.

Invest 91L set to soak North Carolina
A moderate amount of heavy thunderstorm activity has developed over the Northwestern Bahamas in association with the tail end of an old stalled front. This disturbance, Invest 91L, is under a low 5 - 10 knots of wind shear, but water vapor loops show a considerable amount of dry air to the east and west of the disturbance that will likely interfere with development. In their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 91L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday. The disturbance has only a short window to develop, as it is headed northwards and is expected to make landfall in North Carolina by Sunday afternoon. The 8 am EDT SHIPS model forecast predicts 91L will hit 35 knots of wind shear by Sunday morning, when the storm will be approaching the coast of North Carolina. Heavy rains from 91L may cause localized flooding in Morehead City, NC and surrounding regions. A moist flow of tropical air over the region has already brought rainfall amounts of 1 - 3 inches to much of Eastern North Carolina today.

Dangerous Tropical Storm Nesat headed for the Philippines
What may be the season's most dangerous storm in the Western Pacific, Tropical Storm Nesat, has formed about 700 miles east of the Philippine Islands. Nesat is under a moderate 10 knots of wind shear, is embedded in a very moist environment, has very warm sea surface temperatures of 30°C under it, and a very favorable upper-level outflow pattern above it. Nesat has plenty of time to intensify into a major typhoon before its expected landfall on Luzon Island in the Philippines on Tuesday morning.

I'll have an update before 2 pm Sunday afternoon.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 813 - 763

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19Blog Index

Quoting Neapolitan:
This isn't welcome:

Uh-oh

From the Storm Prediction Center:

...PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND E TX...
S-SWLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 20 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL/E
TX AHEAD OF A SWD MOVING COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH MORNING SFC OBS
INDICATE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS INCREASING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION...STRONG DAYTIME HEATING /TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 100 DEG F
ACROSS CNTRL TX/ SHOULD PROMOTE A RAPIDLY DEEPENING BOUNDARY
LAYER...AND SUBSEQUENTLY LEAD TO RH VALUES PLUMMETING TO THE LOWER
20S. DESPITE SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ONLY BEING MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE
FOR A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT...ONGOING EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT
ACROSS THE REGION WILL EXACERBATE THE POTENTIAL FOR RAPID FIRE
SPREAD
.

100% of Texas is suffering at least "moderate" drought conditions (D1-D4); 99.03% is in "severe" drought (D2-D4); 96.1% is listed as in "extreme" drought (D3-D4); and a completely disheartening 85.43% is in an "exceptional" drought. And sadly, with a return to La Nina conditions, climatologists predict things to last at least into next fall. One large hope had been a tropical system or two, but with October quickly approaching, that's not looking very likely.

Uh-oh

Gives new meaning to the term "Red State"... ;-)


There was a snake in my house this morning, second one this year. It's oppressive here, especially for the critters.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good morning, all. Ophelia is being sheared apart it looks like. I'm glad Philippe is forecasted to go north soon. If he had come across, it could have been bad for the Islands, and wherever else he might have gone.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
25/1145 UTC 18.3N 59.9W TOO WEAK OPHELIA
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Atlantic Wide View
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I certainly do not have anything to say about Ophelia
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Satellite image of Philippe (floater 3)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I dont know how this blog got so slow
But as this is a tropics blog..
No one has taken a look yet at Philippe this morning IMO
It's really getting better organized
Look at the satellite pictures, ADT, etc
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Good morning. how the hell am I awake?! XD
Ophelia is dead for now.


iknow right... out partying all night and I'm up at 7:15 Im such a loon... but not nearly as bad as ophelia
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
morning all
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
This isn't welcome:

Uh-oh

From the Storm Prediction Center:

...PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND E TX...
S-SWLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 20 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL/E
TX AHEAD OF A SWD MOVING COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH MORNING SFC OBS
INDICATE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS INCREASING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION...STRONG DAYTIME HEATING /TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 100 DEG F
ACROSS CNTRL TX/ SHOULD PROMOTE A RAPIDLY DEEPENING BOUNDARY
LAYER...AND SUBSEQUENTLY LEAD TO RH VALUES PLUMMETING TO THE LOWER
20S. DESPITE SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ONLY BEING MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE
FOR A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT...ONGOING EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT
ACROSS THE REGION WILL EXACERBATE THE POTENTIAL FOR RAPID FIRE
SPREAD
.

100% of Texas is suffering at least "moderate" drought conditions (D1-D4); 99.03% is in "severe" drought (D2-D4); 96.1% is listed as in "extreme" drought (D3-D4); and a completely disheartening 85.43% is in an "exceptional" drought. And sadly, with a return to La Nina conditions, climatologists predict things to last at least into next fall. One large hope had been a tropical system or two, but with October quickly approaching, that's not looking very likely.

Uh-oh

Gives new meaning to the term "Red State"... ;-)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
...Ophelia, where have you gone?....

Link

Good morning all...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good morning. how the hell am I awake?! XD
Ophelia is dead for now.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
797. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #9
TROPICAL STORM HAITANG (T1118)
18:00 PM JST September 25 2011
=================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In South China Sea

At 9:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Haitang (996 hPa) located at 17.1N 112.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest slowly

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
===============
150 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

24 HRS: 17.1N 110.3E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
45 HRS: 16.9N 107.7E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
69 HRS: 17.1N 105.4E - Tropical Depression
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
796. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #16
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM NESAT (T1117)
18:00 PM JST September 25 2011
=================================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 9:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Nesat (980 hPa) located at 14.6N 128.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 80 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 10 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5

Storm Force Winds
=================
50 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
220 NM from the center in the north quadrant
170 NM from the center in the south quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

24 HRS: 15.8N 124.9E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon)
45 HRS: 16.9N 120.7E - 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
69 HRS: 17.5N 116.5E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
795. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #4
TROPICAL STORM PEDRING (NESAT)
5:00 PM PhST September 25 2011
=============================

Tropical Storm "PEDRING" has accelerated and intensified further as it continues to move westward towards Isabela-Aurora Area.

At 4:00 PM PhST, Tropical Storm Pedring (Nesat) located at 14.6°N 129.0°E or 460 km east northeast of Virac, Catanduanes has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 75 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 15 knots.

Signal Warnings
==============

Signal Warning #2
--------------

Luzon Region
------------
1. Catanduanes

Signal Warning #1
--------------

Luzon Region
------------
1. Camarines Sur
2. Camarines Norte
3. Albay
4. Burias Island
5. Sorsogon
6. Quezon
7. Polillo Island
8. Aurora

Additional Information
=====================

Residents in low lying and mountainous areas under signals #2 and # 1 are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides.

Estimated rainfall amount is from 10-20 mm per hour within the 600 km diameter of the tropical storm.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today and the hourly updates.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The naked Ophelia is moving complely west and convection will probably try to develop again and will get shear.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
18.1n58.0w has been re-evaluated&altered for TS.Ophelia's_6amGMT_ATCF
17.9n58.0w, 18.3n58.8w are now the most recent positions
Starting 24Sept_6amGMT and ending 25Sept_6amGMT

The 4 eastern line-segments represent TropicalStormOphelia's path,
the westernmost line-segment is the straightline projection for 25Sept_6amGMT,
the island blob at 23.709n74.803w-rcy is the endpoint of the straightline projection
connected to its nearest airport for the 25Sept_12amGMT*mapping,
and the sea-to-island blob at 18.587n64.356w-ngd is the same for the 24Sept_6pmGMT*mapping.

Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the
ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 12amGMT then 6amGMT :
TS.Ophelia's travel-speed was 9.8mph(15.8k/h) on a heading of 297.7degrees(WNW)
TS.Ophelia was headed toward passage over SandyPoint,Abaco,Bahamas ~5days8hours from now

Copy&paste 18.587n64.356w-ngd, 23.709n74.803w-rcy, 16.5n54.7w-17.5n55.6w, 17.5n55.6w-17.7n57.0w, 17.7n57.0w-17.9n58.0w, 17.9n58.0w-18.3n58.8w, myas, 17.9n58.0w-25.97n77.19w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info

The previous mapping for 25Sept_12amGMT

* The alteration of the endpoint of a TropicalCyclone's previous path also changes its previous travel-speed&heading, and the endpoint of its previous straightline projection...
...but I'm choosing to preserve the historicity of the mappings.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
792. JLPR2
There goes what's left of Ophelia, swirling away from the convection.



Goodnight all!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I'm out of here for tonight. The USA and all Central American and all Islands are safe tonight from Hurricanes and Tropical Storms. May they remain so for the rest of the 2011 season.

May President Obama sleep well because he is the leader of the free world.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Bluestorm5:
oh... thanks. I felt dumb. Anyway... isn't blog alittle slower than usual, LOL?




olny when there stroms comeing at the USA then you see the blog at 1,000 commets in hr lol



well good nigth all
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115437
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN SEP 25 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM OPHELIA...LOCATED ABOUT 310 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND ON TROPICAL STORM PHILLIPE...LOCATED ABOUT
370 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM THE BAHAMAS NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES ARE ASSOCIATED WITH
AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME
EVEN LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT BEGINS TO
INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM LATER TODAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOUR



91L down too 0% and now am off for the night
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115437
Quoting Tazmanian:




91L has petter out for the most part
oh... thanks. I felt dumb. Anyway... isn't blog alittle slower than usual, LOL?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JLPR2:


Ophelia's sister? XD



Yeah, as long as it doesn't dissipate something could form underneath it.


JAJAJA!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Bluestorm5:
I just checked NHC site and saw that it's 20% chance of tropical depression offcoast of FL/GA/SC. I came on here and saw that we are supposed to get hit by this -___- We don't need anymore rain, as it already dumped 1-2 inches the last 2 days. I also hope it doesn't strengthen rapidly, even though it's HIGHLY unlikely.




91L has petter out for the most part
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115437
I just checked NHC site and saw that it's 20% chance of tropical depression offcoast of FL/GA/SC. I came on here and saw that we are supposed to get hit by this -___- We don't need anymore rain, as it already dumped 1-2 inches the last 2 days. I also hope it doesn't strengthen rapidly, even though it's HIGHLY unlikely.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
784. JLPR2
Another one hitting the water around the same latitude as Philippe.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
783. JLPR2
Quoting lordhuracan01:
EPHELIA


Ophelia's sister? XD

Quoting Skyepony:
I think we may see Ophelia reform under the blob of convection.


Yeah, as long as it doesn't dissipate something could form underneath it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
OPHELIA
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
781. Skyepony (Mod)
I think we may see Ophelia reform under the blob of convection.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting aspectre:
691 TropicalAnalystwx13 "lol, I'm bored, so..."

...it's time for Texcasting

292.8(WNW) is the initial heading from TS.Ophelia's 2nd most recent ATCF position to:
TS.Ophelia's most recent ATCF position;
RumCay,Bahamas;
PortAransas (across the bay from CorpusCristi).

Copy&paste 17.7n57.0w-18.1n58.0w, rcy, 17.7n57.0w-23.709n74.803w, 17.7n57.0w-ktfp into the GreatCircleMapper for more info


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JLPR2:


Trof of low pressure.


But we might see something happening under the convection, if it doesn't dissipate. xD

What's left of the old LLC is naked since it left behind all the connection.


Thanks....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
778. JLPR2
Quoting sunlinepr:


So what we have now is only convection of a TWave... ?


Trof of low pressure.


But we might see something happening under the convection, if it doesn't dissipate. xD

What's left of the old LLC is naked since it left behind all the connection.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Complete Update

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI






Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JLPR2:


Too late, we lost her.

Unless the MLC associated with those clouds generates a new LLC Ophelia is history.


So what we have now is only convection of a TD... ?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
774. JLPR2
Quoting sunlinepr:
Gettin closer...



Too late, we lost her.

Unless the MLC associated with those clouds generates a new LLC Ophelia is history.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
For the moment, Philippe likes the 10N Westerly track...

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Gettin closer...

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
THE LATEST
*Click images to magnify (images can also be magnified in Link Window by clicking on them)



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
768. SLU
GAME OVER

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
today 6 years ago

TROPICAL DEPRESSION RITA ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2005

...RITA WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION BUT REMAINS A HEAVY RAIN PRODUCER...

AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.9 WEST...
OR ABOUT 40 MILES NORTH OF SHREVEPORT LOUISIANA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 10 MPH. A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
766. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #3
TROPICAL STORM PEDRING (NESAT)
11:00 AM PhST September 25 2011
=============================

Tropical Storm "PEDRING" has intensified further as it continues to endanger northern Luzon.

At 10:00 AM PhST, Tropical Storm Pedring (Nesat) located at 14.7°N 130.4°E or 600 km east northeast of Virac, Catanduanes has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 11 knots.

Signal Warnings
==============

Signal Warning #1
--------------

Luzon Region
------------
1. Catanduanes
2. Albay
3. Camarines Sur

Additional Information
=====================

Residents in low lying and mountainous areas under signal # 1 are alerted against possible flashfloods and landslides.

Estimated rainfall amount is from 10-20 mm per hour within the 600 km diameter of the tropical storm.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 PM today and the hourly updates.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JLPR2:
Yep, mid level...




Almost no convergence in the area.


Looks like a funeral...

I agree. I don't think it's a tropical cyclone anymore.

RIP... for now.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Hilary is finaly going to EWRC. Lets see what the finished product looks like tmrw. Night All

peace out.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
EWRC

Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 813 - 763

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
32 °F
Overcast