Ophelia remains weak; TD 17 forms; dangerous Nesat headed for the Philippines

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:54 PM GMT on September 24, 2011

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There's not much change to Tropical Storm Ophelia today, which continues to battle dry air and high wind shear. Satellite imagery shows that Ophelia has little heavy thunderstorm activity near its low level circulation center, which is mostly exposed to view. Most of the storm's heavy thunderstorms are to the east of the center, with just a few puffs of thunderstorms occasionally popping up near the center. An analysis from the University of Wisconsin CIMMS group shows a high 20 - 25 knots of wind shear due to strong upper-level southwesterly winds. Water vapor satellite images show Ophelia is at the eastern edge of large area of very dry air.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Ophelia showing the low-level center exposed to view, with all the storm's heavy thunderstorms in a band several hundred miles to the east and south. This is not a healthy-looking tropical storm.

Forecast for Ophelia
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that Ophelia will experience high wind shear of 20 - 40 knots over the next five days, and will move into a region with slightly drier air. This combination of shear and dry air may be enough to dissipate Ophelia, as predicted by several of the models. However, Ophelia has maintained itself better than the models have predicted, so the storm will probably survive until at least Sunday. Even it Ophelia does dissipate, it will have the chance to regenerate by Tuesday or Wednesday, when it may encounter a region of lower wind shear. At this time, it appears that Ophelia will only be a threat to Bermuda.

TD 17 forms
Tropical Depression 17 formed in the far eastern Atlantic off the coast of Africa last night, and is likely to intensify into Tropical Storm Philippe later today. TD 17 has some impressive low-level spiral bands and upper-level outflow, and is very close to tropical storm strength. The predicted west-northwest to northwest track of TD 17 will put it in a position where historically, very few storms have ever gone on to hit land.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Hilary at 4:05 pm EDT September 23, 2011. At the time, Hilary was a Category 4 storm with 145 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Powerful Hurricane Hilary remains at Category 4 strength
In the Eastern Pacific, Hurricane Hilary remains an impressive Category 4 hurricane with 140 mph winds. Hilary is headed west, away from Mexico, and the storm is small enough that its outer bands are not causing flooding problems for Mexico. A trough of low pressure expected to move over the Western U.S. by the middle of the week may be strong enough to turn Hilary to the north, eventually bringing Hilary to Mexico's Baja Peninsula. The timing of this event is highly uncertain, though. Hilary is small enough that it is unlikely to bring significant drought relief to Arizona, New Mexico, and Texas if the storm's remnants move north into those states. Hilary is the fourth Category 4 hurricane in the Eastern Pacific this year, and the second strongest, behind Hurricane Dora, which had 155 mph winds.

Invest 91L set to soak North Carolina
A moderate amount of heavy thunderstorm activity has developed over the Northwestern Bahamas in association with the tail end of an old stalled front. This disturbance, Invest 91L, is under a low 5 - 10 knots of wind shear, but water vapor loops show a considerable amount of dry air to the east and west of the disturbance that will likely interfere with development. In their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 91L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday. The disturbance has only a short window to develop, as it is headed northwards and is expected to make landfall in North Carolina by Sunday afternoon. The 8 am EDT SHIPS model forecast predicts 91L will hit 35 knots of wind shear by Sunday morning, when the storm will be approaching the coast of North Carolina. Heavy rains from 91L may cause localized flooding in Morehead City, NC and surrounding regions. A moist flow of tropical air over the region has already brought rainfall amounts of 1 - 3 inches to much of Eastern North Carolina today.

Dangerous Tropical Storm Nesat headed for the Philippines
What may be the season's most dangerous storm in the Western Pacific, Tropical Storm Nesat, has formed about 700 miles east of the Philippine Islands. Nesat is under a moderate 10 knots of wind shear, is embedded in a very moist environment, has very warm sea surface temperatures of 30°C under it, and a very favorable upper-level outflow pattern above it. Nesat has plenty of time to intensify into a major typhoon before its expected landfall on Luzon Island in the Philippines on Tuesday morning.

I'll have an update before 2 pm Sunday afternoon.

Jeff Masters

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lol
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5672
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Until they pick it up again.
Hey, did you see this mornings run of the GFS, a low forming off S. FL. and one in the SW Caribbean around the 6th? Link This will coincide with the MJO returning.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Right.
it really does not matter in ten yrs no one will even remember this storm we only remember the majors
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TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011
1100 AM AST SUN SEP 25 2011

PHILIPPE HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...ALTHOUGH A
NEW BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED NEAR THE
CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 40 KT BASED ON
A BLEND OF SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KT FROM TAFB AND 30
KT FROM SAB.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/10 KT. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK REASONING. THE MODELS REMAIN
IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON PHILIPPE MOVING TOWARD A DEVELOPING
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH...AND GRADUALLY
TURNING NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS AND MOVING NORTHWARD
AFTER THAT. MOST OF THE MODELS ARE NOW INDICATING RECURVATURE TO
THE NORTHEAST BY DAY 5...EXCEPT FOR THE ECMWF MODEL. OUT OF RESPECT
FOR THAT MODEL...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK CONTINUES TO SHOW ONLY
A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK IS BASICALLY AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
AND IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS MODELS TCVN AND TVCA.

MOST OF THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT THE
MOST FAVORABLE SHEAR AND THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR DURING
THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO. AFTER THAT...PHILLIPE IS EXPECTED TO
EXPERIENCE INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OF 20-25 KT AND BE MOVING
OVER SUB-27C SSTS AND INTO A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST CALLS FOR STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH
GRADUAL WEAKENING EXPECTED AFTER THAT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
REMAINS ABOVE THE SHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE...BUT BELOW THE MORE
ROBUST GFDL AND HWRF MODELS...WHICH STILL INSIST THAT PHILLIPE WILL
BE NEAR CATEGORY 2 STRENGTH BY THE DAY 4-5 PERIOD.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/1500Z 12.5N 30.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 26/0000Z 13.3N 32.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 26/1200Z 14.4N 33.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 27/0000Z 15.5N 34.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 27/1200Z 16.7N 35.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 28/1200Z 19.3N 37.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 29/1200Z 22.5N 38.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 30/1200Z 26.0N 38.5W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31895
Philippe -

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31895
Heavy rain at my location in South Fort Myers. I guess no swimming in the pool. At least I got the dog outside to do his business just in time.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
As always, if the post-season analyses shows that Ophelia wasn't a tropical storm at this time, the official TCR will reflect that. For now, the folks at the NHC--who, after all, do this for a living--will keep Ophelia as a TS so long as they think it deserves it; if they're later proven wrong, the historical record will reflect that. I have to say, I don't think I understand the yelling and complaining going on; it's not as if anyone's life will be affected by whether the NHC calls it a TS, a TD, or a wave, right?

Right?

Right. Or Left. lol
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5672
Quoting Neapolitan:
As always, if the post-season analyses shows that Ophelia wasn't a tropical storm at this time, the official TCR will reflect that. For now, the folks at the NHC--who, after all, do this for a living--will keep Ophelia as a TS so long as they think it deserves it; if they're later proven wrong, the historical record will reflect that. I have to say, I don't think I understand the yelling and complaining going on; it's not as if anyone's life will be affected by whether the NHC calls it a TS, a TD, or a wave, right?

Right?


Right.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31895
Is that a swirl?
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5672
Bahamas blob, the second.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5672
As always, if the post-season analyses shows that Ophelia wasn't a tropical storm at this time, the official TCR will reflect that. For now, the folks at the NHC--who, after all, do this for a living--will keep Ophelia as a TS so long as they think it deserves it; if they're later proven wrong, the historical record will reflect that. I have to say, I don't think I understand the yelling and complaining going on; it's not as if anyone's life will be affected by whether the NHC calls it a TS, a TD, or a wave, right?

Right?
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13509
852. SLU
Ok .. maybe since it's close to the islands they don't want to discontinue advisories but they will propably revise its strength in the post season analysis as they did with TS ANA in 2009....
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
"Tropical Storm" Ophelia...



MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. HOWEVER...OPHELIA COULD BECOME A POST-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE
AREA LATER TODAY IF THUNDERSTORMS DO NOT REDEVELOP NEAR THE CENTER.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...
335 KM...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.
Member Since: September 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 481
Wow.... Just wow. -_-

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
1100 AM AST SUN SEP 25 2011

...OPHELIA MAKES A JOG TOWARD THE WEST BUT EXPECTED TO TURN BACK
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
But...why?
...OPHELIA MAKES A JOG TOWARD THE WEST BUT EXPECTED TO TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...
11:00 AM AST Sun Sep 25
Location: 18.3°N 60.4°W
Max sustained: 40 mph
Moving: W at 9 mph
Min pressure: 1008 mb


MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. HOWEVER...OPHELIA COULD BECOME A POST-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE
AREA LATER TODAY IF THUNDERSTORMS DO NOT REDEVELOP NEAR THE CENTER.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...
335 KM...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.
Member Since: September 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 481
"Tropical Storm" Ophelia...
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5672
Looks to me as if the new Bahama blob is currently stationary and not moving in any direction.
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846. SLU
wow . i'm surprised
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845. SLU
...OPHELIA MAKES A JOG TOWARD THE WEST BUT EXPECTED TO TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...

HUH? This is what passes for a TS in 2011?
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But...why?
...OPHELIA MAKES A JOG TOWARD THE WEST BUT EXPECTED TO TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...
11:00 AM AST Sun Sep 25
Location: 18.3°N 60.4°W
Max sustained: 40 mph
Moving: W at 9 mph
Min pressure: 1008 mb
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5672
You're joking...right?


BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
1100 AM AST SUN SEP 25 2011

...OPHELIA MAKES A JOG TOWARD THE WEST BUT EXPECTED TO TURN BACK
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.3N 60.4W
ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31895
Ophelia is still a TS as of 11 AM.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23892
Quoting JLPR2:


Or...
OPHELIA'S LLC DISSIPATES. BUT WE'LL KEEP ISSUING ADVISORIES JUST FOR FUN.

:)

THIS ISN'T EVEN A STORM ANYMORE...BUT WE CAN AND WILL KEEP ISSUING ADVISORIES...LOL...
:D
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5672
How does it "remain dangerous" if it isn't affecting anybody? :P

BULLETIN
HURRICANE HILARY ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092011
800 AM PDT SUN SEP 25 2011

...HILARY REMAINS A DANGEROUS HURRICANE AS IT CONTINUES SLOWLY
WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.2N 109.2W
ABOUT 395 MI...640 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.14 INCHES
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31895
Quoting 7544:
looks like we may have a new bahama blob today
might need to call the s fl. blob pretty soon
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838. JLPR2
Quoting SLU:
Expect to read at 11am today ..

...OPHELIA DEGENERATES TO A REMANT LOW. THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS...


Or...
OPHELIA'S LLC DISSIPATES. BUT WE'LL KEEP ISSUING ADVISORIES JUST FOR FUN.

:)
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837. 7544
looks like we may have a new bahama blob today
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May see Philippe up to 50 mph at 11AM.

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.3 /1002.6mb/ 51.0kt
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31895
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Good morning all.

Except something like, "OPHELIA DEGENERATES INTO A REMNANT LOW...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY..."

At 11AM.

They should call it renmant low,otherwise, would be embarassing to say the least... there isn't much left there!!
Member Since: May 31, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 852
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Tropical Storm Philippe looks a little ragged this morning...? Or is it just me?


I think so too.

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833. 7544
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
Short Range Base Loop (Miami).
Could be a weak broad circulation in this mess.



notice that is there a spin to it will it get to go west tia
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Short Range Base Loop (Miami).
Could be a weak broad circulation in this mess.

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831. 7544
morning all is that mess east of fl on the radar above now moving west will it reach the coast or go north and stay offshore tia
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Quoting TropicalWeatherGrl88:
Bye bye caribbean disturbance, once again the models drop it...

Until they pick it up again.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31895
Bye bye caribbean disturbance, once again the models drop it...
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Good morning all.

Except something like, "OPHELIA DEGENERATES INTO A REMNANT LOW...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY..."

At 11AM.

really does not matter the system is going to do whatever it does whether nhc accepts it or not
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"Levee"
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Tropical Storm Philippe looks a little ragged this morning...? Or is it just me?

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31895
Quoting CybrTeddy:


IMO, I see no problem with it. He's stating its fake, and I certainty agree with him too.

Now, if he posted an entirely fake outlook and stated it was real, THEN there would be a problem.



oh i see now
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114954
Good morning all.

Except something like, "OPHELIA DEGENERATES INTO A REMNANT LOW...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY..."

At 11AM.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31895
Quoting LargoFl:
something to watch alright, weather guy here around Tampa says showers and storms today, some might be heavy
they might want to get their markers ready put that many clouds over 90' water watch out
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Quoting Tazmanian:



can you re move that or evere one think that is ture you sould not be puting thing like that on the blogs un less it is ture


IMO, I see no problem with it. He's stating its fake, and I certainty agree with him too.

Now, if he posted an entirely fake outlook and stated it was real, THEN there would be a problem.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23892
Quoting islander101010:
idea yesterday of ex 98 energy mixing with 91s could organized in the s traights of fl. is not that far off
something to watch alright, weather guy here around Tampa says showers and storms today, some might be heavy
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Quoting SLU:
Expect to read at 11am today ..

...OPHELIA DEGENERATES TO A REMANT LOW. THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS...



can you re move that or evere one think that is ture you sould not be puting thing like that on the blogs un less it is ture
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114954
819. SLU
Expect to read at 11am today ..

...OPHELIA DEGENERATES TO A REMANT LOW. THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS...
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Quoting Sfloridacat5:
It looks like some of the moisture left over from the disturbance over the Bahamas is migrating westward towards Florida.

idea yesterday of ex 98 energy mixing with 91s could organized in the straights of fl. is not that far off
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Why can't Texas have this?
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5672
Fire threat posted for my area today..with only 20 mph gusts expected? So sad. Guess I'll go turn on the sprinklers for a while...hopefully I won't have to spray down the roof this time :(
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It looks like some of the moisture left over from the disturbance over the Bahamas is migrating westward towards Florida.

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Quoting weatherh98:


iknow right... out partying all night and I'm up at 7:15 Im such a loon... but not nearly as bad as ophelia

And it's raining here. Seriously, I feel half-dead. I'm gonna eat some breakfast before I fall asleep again.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5672

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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