Ophelia remains weak; TD 17 forms; dangerous Nesat headed for the Philippines

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:54 PM GMT on September 24, 2011

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There's not much change to Tropical Storm Ophelia today, which continues to battle dry air and high wind shear. Satellite imagery shows that Ophelia has little heavy thunderstorm activity near its low level circulation center, which is mostly exposed to view. Most of the storm's heavy thunderstorms are to the east of the center, with just a few puffs of thunderstorms occasionally popping up near the center. An analysis from the University of Wisconsin CIMMS group shows a high 20 - 25 knots of wind shear due to strong upper-level southwesterly winds. Water vapor satellite images show Ophelia is at the eastern edge of large area of very dry air.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Ophelia showing the low-level center exposed to view, with all the storm's heavy thunderstorms in a band several hundred miles to the east and south. This is not a healthy-looking tropical storm.

Forecast for Ophelia
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that Ophelia will experience high wind shear of 20 - 40 knots over the next five days, and will move into a region with slightly drier air. This combination of shear and dry air may be enough to dissipate Ophelia, as predicted by several of the models. However, Ophelia has maintained itself better than the models have predicted, so the storm will probably survive until at least Sunday. Even it Ophelia does dissipate, it will have the chance to regenerate by Tuesday or Wednesday, when it may encounter a region of lower wind shear. At this time, it appears that Ophelia will only be a threat to Bermuda.

TD 17 forms
Tropical Depression 17 formed in the far eastern Atlantic off the coast of Africa last night, and is likely to intensify into Tropical Storm Philippe later today. TD 17 has some impressive low-level spiral bands and upper-level outflow, and is very close to tropical storm strength. The predicted west-northwest to northwest track of TD 17 will put it in a position where historically, very few storms have ever gone on to hit land.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Hilary at 4:05 pm EDT September 23, 2011. At the time, Hilary was a Category 4 storm with 145 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Powerful Hurricane Hilary remains at Category 4 strength
In the Eastern Pacific, Hurricane Hilary remains an impressive Category 4 hurricane with 140 mph winds. Hilary is headed west, away from Mexico, and the storm is small enough that its outer bands are not causing flooding problems for Mexico. A trough of low pressure expected to move over the Western U.S. by the middle of the week may be strong enough to turn Hilary to the north, eventually bringing Hilary to Mexico's Baja Peninsula. The timing of this event is highly uncertain, though. Hilary is small enough that it is unlikely to bring significant drought relief to Arizona, New Mexico, and Texas if the storm's remnants move north into those states. Hilary is the fourth Category 4 hurricane in the Eastern Pacific this year, and the second strongest, behind Hurricane Dora, which had 155 mph winds.

Invest 91L set to soak North Carolina
A moderate amount of heavy thunderstorm activity has developed over the Northwestern Bahamas in association with the tail end of an old stalled front. This disturbance, Invest 91L, is under a low 5 - 10 knots of wind shear, but water vapor loops show a considerable amount of dry air to the east and west of the disturbance that will likely interfere with development. In their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 91L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday. The disturbance has only a short window to develop, as it is headed northwards and is expected to make landfall in North Carolina by Sunday afternoon. The 8 am EDT SHIPS model forecast predicts 91L will hit 35 knots of wind shear by Sunday morning, when the storm will be approaching the coast of North Carolina. Heavy rains from 91L may cause localized flooding in Morehead City, NC and surrounding regions. A moist flow of tropical air over the region has already brought rainfall amounts of 1 - 3 inches to much of Eastern North Carolina today.

Dangerous Tropical Storm Nesat headed for the Philippines
What may be the season's most dangerous storm in the Western Pacific, Tropical Storm Nesat, has formed about 700 miles east of the Philippine Islands. Nesat is under a moderate 10 knots of wind shear, is embedded in a very moist environment, has very warm sea surface temperatures of 30°C under it, and a very favorable upper-level outflow pattern above it. Nesat has plenty of time to intensify into a major typhoon before its expected landfall on Luzon Island in the Philippines on Tuesday morning.

I'll have an update before 2 pm Sunday afternoon.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Drakoen:
TD 17 likely a tropical storm now with Final ADT numbers around 3.1 and raw numbers 3.4.

I Expect a christening within the next hour.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13597
Quoting Drakoen:
TD 17 likely a tropical storm now with Final ADT numbers around 3.1 and raw numbers 3.4.


Yep:


UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 24 SEP 2011 Time : 171500 UTC
Lat : 11:06:46 N Lon : 27:08:36 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.1 /1003.7mb/ 47.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.1 3.3 3.4

Center Temp : -46.2C Cloud Region Temp : -32.8C

Scene Type : SHEAR (0.04^ TO DG)

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.2T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : N/A
- Environmental MSLP : 1013mb

Satellite Viewing Angle : 34.0 degrees

Not sure why the scene type is SHEAR, doesn't look that way.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32505
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32505
TD 17 likely a tropical storm now with Final ADT numbers around 3.1 and raw numbers 3.4.
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so over 40 years of tracking hurricanes dont count ????..I guess you have the world cornered on Hurricanes and have probably never seen one:))
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maybe shear will be our saving grace
Member Since: September 19, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 4266
Quoting CybrTeddy:
91L up to 30%.


Yep.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32505
Quoting Landfall2004:


I guess my point is that if the Gov. has all this sophisticated EXPENSIVE equipment to track somebody else's missiles, how come we can't track a falling piece of debris?


i understand completely
Member Since: September 19, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 4266
91L up to 30%.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24457
Quoting outrocket:


what would you have smacked me with had I been wrong???...LOL


(Well, actually, you were wrong. It's 11.)

And as said in the previous blog, anyone who posts that average (even the good Dr) without sufficient qualification in order to make an exaggerated comparison to the quantity of storms we see presently gets (affectionately, of course) slapped about with tuna. :)
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Quoting will40:


i read somewhere that from now on a tracking device will be put in all sats. This one didnt have the program tho


I guess my point is that if the Gov. has all this sophisticated EXPENSIVE equipment to track somebody else's missiles, how come we can't track a falling piece of debris?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
. AN ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED JUST NORTH OF THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS...OR ABOUT 175 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE
CANAVERAL FLORIDA. SATELLITE AND DOPPLER RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED...
AND SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME UNFAVORABLE.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY
NORTHWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting cat5hurricane:

Irene was a piece of garbage. 10 billion dollars? Sure, because of it's track inpacting a megalopolis. If that had crossed coastal southeast GA, you think you'd see those numbers??? LOL

Piece of garbage storm she was.


I'd leave if I were you...like NOW.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32505
iggy list increases by 1
Member Since: September 19, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 4266
Quoting Cotillion:


And you, sir, have the privilege of the first to be slapped around with tuna.

And Cat5 just enjoys being contrarian.


what would you have smacked me with had I been wrong???...LOL
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Since I didn't log off from last night, for those who missed it:

Hello folks,

I just wanted to let everyone know that I am leaving this blog. I will not disclose the reason why I left, but I just wanted to let everyone know that I am doing so. Thanks again to everyone who made this place memorable, especially you Grothar.

Canes
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Quoting sporteguy03:


How are they padding their numbers by classifying systems that should be classified?


No clue.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32505
1800Z FOR 91L:

AL, 91, 2011092418, , BEST, 0, 279N, 779W, 20, 1011, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 150, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13597
Why is everyone hatin' on Jose? He was FABULOUS! XD
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
Quoting outrocket:
an average hurricane season is 10 named storms so any number over that makes it a MORE active season...So no need to pad numbers


And you, sir, have the privilege of the first to be slapped around with tuna.

And Cat5 just enjoys being contrarian.
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Quoting cat5hurricane:
Ophelia = Fish.

TD 17 = Fish, plus yet another example of the NHC padding numbers to try to cover themselves with yet ANOTHER overhyped, exaggerated 2011 outlook of all those predicted storms forming.

Yet another shame on an yet another government agency tax payers are subjected to.

Disgraceful.


This season has been very unusual in that we have only had three hurricanes out of 15 named storms. so, which storms do you think should not have been named? Dr Masters pointed out that there has been below normal vertical instability in the Atlantic Basin. I think a lot of this probably had to do with the "Death Ridge" of high pressure sitting over Texas the past three months.
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ok guys the reason why we havent seen "powerfull" storms like last year is because our vertical instability is at a recored low. WSI pointed that out. next year if we dont get el nino numbers could be 13-18 again
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Quoting cat5hurricane:

Jose. LMAO. Common already. If their going to use that kind of criteria to try to justify their blunder of predicting an overly active season in the Atlantic Basin, then I guess we'll throw 17 in there too.

But TD 17 does fit the criteria of a tropical depression. It doesn't matter how weak it is.
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Quoting cat5hurricane:

Irene was a piece of garbage. 10 billion dollars? Sure, because of it's track inpacting a megalopolis. If that had crossed coastal southeast GA, you think you'd see those number??? LOL

Piece of garbage storm she was.


Are you kidding me with yourself? Geez, didn't you even see how bad the storm was for some people?
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Quoting cat5hurricane:

Jose. LMAO. Common already. If their going to use that kind of criteria to try to justify their blunder of predicting an overly active season in the Atlantic Basin, then I guess we'll throw 17 in there too.


If it deserves to be classified, then it does. You're not the weatherman here, bub.
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT SEP 24 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM OPHELIA...LOCATED ABOUT 385 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS...AND TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN...LOCATED ABOUT 305
MILES SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

AN ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED JUST NORTH OF THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS...OR ABOUT 175 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE
CANAVERAL FLORIDA. SATELLITE AND DOPPLER RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED...
AND SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME UNFAVORABLE.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY
NORTHWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
an average hurricane season is 10 named storms so any number over that makes it a MORE active season...So no need to pad numbers
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


TD #17 definitely deserved to be classified...have you not seen it?


Petite.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
Quoting Tazmanian:




why you even asking him that yes TD 17 is a cyclone

Taz, my point was how is TD17 padding the NHC numbers? It doesn't matter how weak and small the system is, if it should be classified then so be it.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


TD #17 definitely deserved to be classified...have you not seen it?





any one noted how small TD 17 is lol
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Thanks Doc.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
Quoting sporteguy03:


so TD 17 is not a cyclone?


thinking because it not going to Fla is the reason for his comment.
Member Since: September 19, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 4266
Quoting cat5hurricane:
Ophelia = Fish.

TD 17 = Fish, plus yet another example of the NHC padding numbers to try to cover themselves with yet ANOTHER overhyped, exaggerated 2011 outlook of all those predicted storms forming.

Yet another shame on an yet another government agency tax payers are subjected to.

Disgraceful.


Oh stop it already, will you? Geez, all you talk about is the government on a weather website. Go someplace else.
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Quoting sporteguy03:


so TD 17 is not a cyclone?




why you even asking him that yes TD 17 is a cyclone
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


TD #17 definitely deserved to be classified...have you not seen it?



How are they padding their numbers by classifying systems that should be classified?
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Quoting cat5hurricane:
Ophelia = Fish.

TD 17 = Fish, plus yet another example of the NHC padding numbers to try to cover themselves with yet ANOTHER overhyped, exaggerated 2011 outlook of all those predicted storms forming.

Yet another shame on an yet another government agency tax payers are subjected to.

Disgraceful.


so TD 17 is not a cyclone?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Landfall2004:


You'd think with all the technology we have at our disposal today, we'd be able to track this satellite! Something just isn't right.


i read somewhere that from now on a tracking device will be put in all sats. This one didnt have the program tho
Member Since: September 19, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 4266
Quoting sunlinepr:
NASA Satellite Falls to Earth... But Where Did It Land?

Link


NASA's defunct UARS climate satellite fell back to Earth overnight, though agency officials are still trying to pinpoint exactly where and when.

The 6.5-ton Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite, or UARS, plunged through the atmosphere sometime between 11:23 p.m. EDT (0323 Sept. 24 GMT) on Friday (Sept. 23), and 1:09 a.m. EDT (0509 GMT) Saturday (Sept. 24), NASA officials said.

"The Joint Space Operations Center at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California said the satellite entered the atmosphere over the North Pacific Ocean, off the west coast of the United States," according to a NASA statement. "The precise re-entry time and location of any debris impacts are still being determined."



You'd think with all the technology we have at our disposal today, we'd be able to track this satellite! Something just isn't right.
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Quoting cat5hurricane:
Ophelia = Fish.

TD 17 = Fish, plus yet another example of the NHC padding numbers to try to cover themselves with yet ANOTHER overhyped, exaggerated 2011 outlook of all those predicted storms forming.

Yet another shame on an yet another government agency tax payers are subjected to.

Disgraceful.


TD #17 definitely deserved to be classified...have you not seen it?

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32505
Final T-numbers for 17L have increased slightly since the 1500 UTC advisory, from 2.2 to 2.4. With the initial and adjusted higher, I think it is safe to say we have Philippe...at the 5PM advisory. ;)

2011SEP24 164500 2.4 1005.8/ +0.0 / 34.0 2.4 2.7 3.4 0.5T/hour OFF OFF -43.03 -35.10 SHEAR N/A 11.06 27.01 FCST
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32505
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
On this day six years ago, we were tracking a landfalling Category 3 hurricane called Rita.

The 2005 Atlantic hurricane season didn't reach Stan until October 1. Assuming that 17L is currently Philippe (which there is a good chance), we are only one named storm behind 2005.

Just think...If 91L became a tropical storm, we would be tied with 2005...



I'm just thankful we haven't had the destruction which occurred in 2005. Or 2004 for that matter.
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In fact, Rita made landfall about two hours and 14 minutes away from now.

EDIT: She made landfall at 3:30 AM int he morning.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32505
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Infrared satellite imagery shows that Hilary has most likely weakened to a very minimal Category 4 hurricane. The convection around the pinhole eye is indicative of a slightly weaker storm. Additionally, the cloud pattern has become a little less defined from earlier this morning.

135 mph at 5PM would be a good call.

until she starts losing pink im keeping her at a 4 :) i think she will mantian cat 4 status until tomorrow afternoon.
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On this day six years ago, we were tracking a landfalling Category 3 hurricane called Rita.

The 2005 Atlantic hurricane season didn't reach Stan until October 1. Assuming that 17L is currently Philippe (which there is a good chance), we are only one named storm behind 2005.

Just think...If 91L became a tropical storm, we would be tied with 2005...

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32505
For 17L..
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.1 /1003.7mb/ 47.0kt

If the next round of T# show 2.5, we'll have Philippe.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24457

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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