Ophelia remains weak; TD 17 forms; dangerous Nesat headed for the Philippines

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:54 PM GMT on September 24, 2011

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There's not much change to Tropical Storm Ophelia today, which continues to battle dry air and high wind shear. Satellite imagery shows that Ophelia has little heavy thunderstorm activity near its low level circulation center, which is mostly exposed to view. Most of the storm's heavy thunderstorms are to the east of the center, with just a few puffs of thunderstorms occasionally popping up near the center. An analysis from the University of Wisconsin CIMMS group shows a high 20 - 25 knots of wind shear due to strong upper-level southwesterly winds. Water vapor satellite images show Ophelia is at the eastern edge of large area of very dry air.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Ophelia showing the low-level center exposed to view, with all the storm's heavy thunderstorms in a band several hundred miles to the east and south. This is not a healthy-looking tropical storm.

Forecast for Ophelia
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that Ophelia will experience high wind shear of 20 - 40 knots over the next five days, and will move into a region with slightly drier air. This combination of shear and dry air may be enough to dissipate Ophelia, as predicted by several of the models. However, Ophelia has maintained itself better than the models have predicted, so the storm will probably survive until at least Sunday. Even it Ophelia does dissipate, it will have the chance to regenerate by Tuesday or Wednesday, when it may encounter a region of lower wind shear. At this time, it appears that Ophelia will only be a threat to Bermuda.

TD 17 forms
Tropical Depression 17 formed in the far eastern Atlantic off the coast of Africa last night, and is likely to intensify into Tropical Storm Philippe later today. TD 17 has some impressive low-level spiral bands and upper-level outflow, and is very close to tropical storm strength. The predicted west-northwest to northwest track of TD 17 will put it in a position where historically, very few storms have ever gone on to hit land.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Hilary at 4:05 pm EDT September 23, 2011. At the time, Hilary was a Category 4 storm with 145 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Powerful Hurricane Hilary remains at Category 4 strength
In the Eastern Pacific, Hurricane Hilary remains an impressive Category 4 hurricane with 140 mph winds. Hilary is headed west, away from Mexico, and the storm is small enough that its outer bands are not causing flooding problems for Mexico. A trough of low pressure expected to move over the Western U.S. by the middle of the week may be strong enough to turn Hilary to the north, eventually bringing Hilary to Mexico's Baja Peninsula. The timing of this event is highly uncertain, though. Hilary is small enough that it is unlikely to bring significant drought relief to Arizona, New Mexico, and Texas if the storm's remnants move north into those states. Hilary is the fourth Category 4 hurricane in the Eastern Pacific this year, and the second strongest, behind Hurricane Dora, which had 155 mph winds.

Invest 91L set to soak North Carolina
A moderate amount of heavy thunderstorm activity has developed over the Northwestern Bahamas in association with the tail end of an old stalled front. This disturbance, Invest 91L, is under a low 5 - 10 knots of wind shear, but water vapor loops show a considerable amount of dry air to the east and west of the disturbance that will likely interfere with development. In their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 91L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday. The disturbance has only a short window to develop, as it is headed northwards and is expected to make landfall in North Carolina by Sunday afternoon. The 8 am EDT SHIPS model forecast predicts 91L will hit 35 knots of wind shear by Sunday morning, when the storm will be approaching the coast of North Carolina. Heavy rains from 91L may cause localized flooding in Morehead City, NC and surrounding regions. A moist flow of tropical air over the region has already brought rainfall amounts of 1 - 3 inches to much of Eastern North Carolina today.

Dangerous Tropical Storm Nesat headed for the Philippines
What may be the season's most dangerous storm in the Western Pacific, Tropical Storm Nesat, has formed about 700 miles east of the Philippine Islands. Nesat is under a moderate 10 knots of wind shear, is embedded in a very moist environment, has very warm sea surface temperatures of 30°C under it, and a very favorable upper-level outflow pattern above it. Nesat has plenty of time to intensify into a major typhoon before its expected landfall on Luzon Island in the Philippines on Tuesday morning.

I'll have an update before 2 pm Sunday afternoon.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Hurricane1956:
Wondering if we are going to get any rain here in South Florida from 91L?, some local Met said that the moisture from the Bahamas will cross South Florida by tomorrow? it will be a very rainy day here,but Dr.Masters said it will move to NC?,don't understand,can somebody explain?
Dem TV mets are some of the last people you should listen to. Stick to Dr. Masters and your local NWS.

91L is under the meridional flow of the western periphery of the subtropical ridge. There's basically no place for it to go except north into North Carolina.

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Quoting Jedkins01:
When I told people early this season that this hurricane season would be similar to the last in that most systems would steer out to sea, so many lashed out in anger saying I was foolish for saying so.

But who is getting the last laugh now. I know not everyone in here thought this way, but I know that some of those who attacked me for saying that just want a destructive hurricane season because they have some weird disaster excitement complex. Don't get me wrong, I love the weather, and I go absolutely nuts over severe weather, but I don't wish any hurricane to hit anyone, the cost is by no means worth my selfish excitement I may get out of it. If one hits, I can't help feel the adrenaline and excitement, but it doesn't mean I am not sad over the death and destruction too. Just watch the Discovery Channel series called Storm Chasers, they have same way of looking at it as I do. Its sort of like war. As a young man, if this country was invaded, I would feel the adrenaline and excitement of fighting for my people, but I wouldn't exactly be happy about death that results.



Anyways, I based my forecast of this hurricane season not on a wild guess to appose other people but based on analysis. I could clearly see that the dominant steering currents coming together for this season were going to be similar to last year. Yes, not identical, but similar. I'm not sure why many warned this year there would be a much higher chance than last year. Cause it sure didn't look that way to me, and it doesn't now either, lol.


Sure, pound your chest now. Why don't you tell us the post number where you made the prediction and the following comments where people lashed out at you.
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Quoting Jedkins01:


Most storms did, unless you're blind?

If you want to disagree with me, at least make sense about it, lol.


Every storm except Ophelia and Tropical Depression 10 has impact land this season.

(Ophelia is on the list right now, but I'm sure it won't be after it affects Bermuda)
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 112 Comments: 31314
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
24/1745 UTC 10.9N 27.5W T2.0/2.0 17L


Considering it was at 1.5 earlier, and is now up to 2.0, looks like we'll have Philippe at 5PM.

"AND T1.5/25 KT FROM SAB."
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 112 Comments: 31314
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Not sure where you get most storms have went out to sea...


Most storms did, unless you're blind?

If you want to disagree with me, at least make sense about it, lol.
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Wondering if we are going to get any rain here in South Florida from 91L?, some local Met said that the moisture from the Bahamas will cross South Florida by tomorrow? it will be a very rainy day here,but Dr.Masters said it will move to NC?,don't understand,can somebody explain?
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CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.2 /1002.5mb/ 49.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.2 3.3 3.4
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 112 Comments: 31314
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
24/1745 UTC 10.9N 27.5W T2.0/2.0 17L


Given that they where at 1.5 and it was near TS strength, and the ADT continues to increase.. I think we'll have TS Philippe soon.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23484
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 112 Comments: 31314
24/1745 UTC 10.9N 27.5W T2.0/2.0 17L
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Quoting Cotillion:


You talking to me, or...?

Pretty sure I made reference to that: 'Storms have also been missed in years before further excerbating the differences.'

not anyone's fault, just technological constraints.
I was not criticizing you and I am sorry if it seems that way.
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Quoting Jedkins01:
When I told people early this season that this hurricane season would be similar to the last in that most systems would steer out to sea, so many lashed out in anger saying I was foolish for saying so.

But who is getting the last laugh now. I know not everyone in here thought this way, but I know that some of those who attacked me for saying that just want a destructive hurricane season because they have some weird disaster excitement complex. Don't get me wrong, I love the weather, and I go absolutely nuts over severe weather, but I don't wish any hurricane to hit anyone, the cost is by no means worth my selfish excitement I may get out of it. If one hits, I can't help feel the adrenaline and excitement, but it doesn't I am not sad too. Its sort of like war. As a young man, if this country was invaded, I would feel the adrenaline and excitement of fighting for my people, but I wouldn't exactly be happy about death that results.



Anyways, I based my forecast of this hurricane season not on a wild guess to appose other people but based on analysis. I could clearly see that the dominant steering currents coming together for this season were going to be similar to last year. Yes, not identical, but similar. I'm not sure why many warned this year there would be a much higher chance than last year. Cause it sure didn't look that way to me, and it doesn't now either, lol.


Not sure where you get most storms have went out to sea...
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 112 Comments: 31314
When I told people early this season that this hurricane season would be similar to the last in that most systems would steer out to sea, so many lashed out in anger saying I was foolish for saying so.

But who is getting the last laugh now. I know not everyone in here thought this way, but I know that some of those who attacked me for saying that just want a destructive hurricane season because they have some weird disaster excitement complex. Don't get me wrong, I love the weather, and I go absolutely nuts over severe weather, but I don't wish any hurricane to hit anyone, the cost is by no means worth my selfish excitement I may get out of it. If one hits, I can't help feel the adrenaline and excitement, but it doesn't mean I am not sad over the death and destruction too. Just watch the Discovery Channel series called Storm Chasers, they have same way of looking at it as I do. Its sort of like war. As a young man, if this country was invaded, I would feel the adrenaline and excitement of fighting for my people, but I wouldn't exactly be happy about death that results.



Anyways, I based my forecast of this hurricane season not on a wild guess to appose other people but based on analysis. I could clearly see that the dominant steering currents coming together for this season were going to be similar to last year. Yes, not identical, but similar. I'm not sure why many warned this year there would be a much higher chance than last year. Cause it sure didn't look that way to me, and it doesn't now either, lol.
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Seriously, guys? 5 systems to track (2 in the ATL, 1 in the EPAC, 2 the WPAC, take your pick) and some of you still talk about AGW?
There no views like this before they starting sending up weather satellites and we could have missed a lot of fish storms. People take the satellites and aircraft for granted and forget the years when we did not have them.
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Quoting Gorty:


What does that mean?


"The Dvorak technique (developed in 1973 by Vernon Dvorak) is a widely used system to subjectively estimate tropical cyclone intensity based solely on visible and infrared satellite images. Several agencies issue Dvorak intensity numbers for cyclones of sufficient intensity. These include the National Hurricane Center's Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch (TAFB), the NOAA/NESDIS Satellite Analysis Branch (SAB), and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center at the Naval Pacific Meteorology and Oceanography Center in Pearl Harbor, Hawaii."

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 112 Comments: 31314
Quoting cat5hurricane:

And Yet here's ANOTHER example of something so miniscule that'll end up getting classified, and turn out to be nothing more than a bogus sub-tropical feature (nothing more than a tropical wave, in essence) that will end up bringing healthy rain to the OBX.

Next please.


Dude calm down. Review your TS classification definition. If 91L fits it then it deserves the name.
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Quoting mossyhead:
You have to realize that until we had satellites we were blind and there could have been more fish storms and hurricanes. Repeat, we were blind and how many did we miss.


You talking to me, or...?

Pretty sure I made reference to that: 'Storms have also been missed in years before further excerbating the differences.'

not anyone's fault, just technological constraints.
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I'm not sure what Stewart is seeing. All I see is a ragged mess on 91L.
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Quoting caneswatch:
Since I didn't log off from last night, for those who missed it:

Hello folks,

I just wanted to let everyone know that I am leaving this blog. I will not disclose the reason why I left, but I just wanted to let everyone know that I am doing so. Thanks again to everyone who made this place memorable, especially you Grothar.

Canes

Another one bites the dust.

YOU HAVE MAIL!
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
SAB on 91L:

24/1745 UTC 28.6N 77.7W T1.0/1.0 91L


What does that mean?
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Quoting Cotillion:


Of course they count. However, the storms since 1995 with the positive regime of the AMO have been more in number undoubtedly. Storms have also been missed in years before further excerbating the differences. Since 1995, only one season has been lower than ten storms, so it's hardly average.

The long term average along with qualification of the current period is good (the shorter average isn't so good as it's too short a timeframe). :)
You have to realize that until we had satellites we were blind and there could have been more fish storms and hurricanes. Repeat, we were blind and how many did we miss.
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Quoting cat5hurricane:

And Yet here's ANOTHER example of something so miniscule that'll end up getting classified, and turn out to be nothing more than a bogus sub-tropical feature (nothing more than a tropical wave, in essence) that will end up bringing healthy rain to the OBX.

Next please.


Go away, before people jump you.

EDIT: Nevermind...Instead of wasting my time on you, I'll talk tropics and put you on ignore.

Everybody should do the same....Obviously.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 112 Comments: 31314
Seriously, guys? 5 systems to track (2 in the ATL, 1 in the EPAC, 2 the WPAC, take your pick) and some of you still talk about AGW?
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5618
SAB on 91L:

24/1745 UTC 28.6N 77.7W T1.0/1.0 91L
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75. GiovannaDatoli

Er..

For the record, I don't recall there has been more than 3 times in the last 6 years I've been on here that I've mentioned my views on GW.

I stick to tropics, that's what I'm good at. That and winter weather, I'm pretty good at that too.

Could care less about GW tbh.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23484
Phillipe, providing it gets its name, will be the first 'P' name to appear for a second time.
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Quoting Thrawst:


Thanks, love the sarcasm hehe :P
oh, i'm happy cause we are under some serious drought.

Seems it'll rain in your area until Sunday morning.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
is that a eye froming in TD 17?

I would hope not. Lol
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
On the "Favorites" bar at the top of my page, it says Vega Alta, PR is at -17.8* C.
Epic. FAIL.


lol
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Congratulations?


Thanks, love the sarcasm hehe :P
oh, i'm happy cause we are under some serious drought.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
is that a eye froming in TD 17?


lol, no.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 112 Comments: 31314
Quoting NHCaddict:


I'm just thankful we haven't had the destruction which occurred in 2005. Or 2004 for that matter.
Agree, and that even though we have had lots of storms, most them way weaker than those in 2005.
Member Since: May 31, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 774
Quoting Landfall2004:


I guess my point is that if the Gov. has all this sophisticated EXPENSIVE equipment to track somebody else's missiles, how come we can't track a falling piece of debris?


Missiles are actually quite predictable. They are under power and have specific designs to control trajectory. Something falling will be affected by the atmosphere (skipping, friction, etc) and be much harder to predict.
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Quoting Thrawst:
yay! i'm under an orange circle/oval area :D


Congratulations?
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is that a eye froming in TD 17?
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Its already probably Philippe, T-numbers support it.

But yeah, would you believe that Ophelia is stronger than Nesat? Ophelia is 50 mph, Nesat is 45 mph.
i feel bad that the philipenes are going to get nailed with a cat 4.... td 17 looks like ana from 09. smallish
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yay! i'm under an orange circle/oval area :D

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On the "Favorites" bar at the top of my page, it says Vega Alta, PR is at -17.8* C.
Epic. FAIL.
EDIT: Muahaha, the fixed it.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5618
Quoting outrocket:
so over 40 years of tracking hurricanes dont count ????..I guess you have the world cornered on Hurricanes and have probably never seen one:))


Of course they count. However, the storms since 1995 with the positive regime of the AMO have been more in number undoubtedly. Storms have also been missed in years before further excerbating the differences. Since 1995, only one season has been lower than ten storms, so it's hardly average.

The long term average along with qualification of the current period is good (the shorter average isn't so good as it's too short a timeframe). :)
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Nesat in the western Pacific appears to be taking some steroids this afternoon. Plenty of convective tops nearing -90%u02DAC.



17L in the eastern Atlantic is still struggling a little bit in firing intense convective activity...probably the only thing keeping it from developing into Phillipe. In other words, just a slight increase in intense convection and Phillipe is born.



Its already probably Philippe, T-numbers support it.

But yeah, would you believe that Ophelia is stronger than Nesat? Ophelia is 50 mph, Nesat is 45 mph.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 112 Comments: 31314
Nesat in the western Pacific appears to be taking some steroids this afternoon. Plenty of convective tops nearing -90˚C.



17L in the eastern Atlantic is still struggling a little bit in firing intense convective activity...probably the only thing keeping it from developing into Phillipe. In other words, just a slight increase in intense convection and Phillipe is born.

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Quoting Drakoen:
TD 17 likely a tropical storm now with Final ADT numbers around 3.1 and raw numbers 3.4.


Agreed, which would put us up to our 16th named storm. While most of the storms this year have not reached hurricane strength, its still staggering no matter how you look at it to be talking about our 16th named storm on September 24th.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23484
Quoting Drakoen:
TD 17 likely a tropical storm now with Final ADT numbers around 3.1 and raw numbers 3.4.

I Expect a christening within the next hour.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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