Ophelia remains weak; TD 17 forms; dangerous Nesat headed for the Philippines

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:54 PM GMT on September 24, 2011

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There's not much change to Tropical Storm Ophelia today, which continues to battle dry air and high wind shear. Satellite imagery shows that Ophelia has little heavy thunderstorm activity near its low level circulation center, which is mostly exposed to view. Most of the storm's heavy thunderstorms are to the east of the center, with just a few puffs of thunderstorms occasionally popping up near the center. An analysis from the University of Wisconsin CIMMS group shows a high 20 - 25 knots of wind shear due to strong upper-level southwesterly winds. Water vapor satellite images show Ophelia is at the eastern edge of large area of very dry air.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Ophelia showing the low-level center exposed to view, with all the storm's heavy thunderstorms in a band several hundred miles to the east and south. This is not a healthy-looking tropical storm.

Forecast for Ophelia
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that Ophelia will experience high wind shear of 20 - 40 knots over the next five days, and will move into a region with slightly drier air. This combination of shear and dry air may be enough to dissipate Ophelia, as predicted by several of the models. However, Ophelia has maintained itself better than the models have predicted, so the storm will probably survive until at least Sunday. Even it Ophelia does dissipate, it will have the chance to regenerate by Tuesday or Wednesday, when it may encounter a region of lower wind shear. At this time, it appears that Ophelia will only be a threat to Bermuda.

TD 17 forms
Tropical Depression 17 formed in the far eastern Atlantic off the coast of Africa last night, and is likely to intensify into Tropical Storm Philippe later today. TD 17 has some impressive low-level spiral bands and upper-level outflow, and is very close to tropical storm strength. The predicted west-northwest to northwest track of TD 17 will put it in a position where historically, very few storms have ever gone on to hit land.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Hilary at 4:05 pm EDT September 23, 2011. At the time, Hilary was a Category 4 storm with 145 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Powerful Hurricane Hilary remains at Category 4 strength
In the Eastern Pacific, Hurricane Hilary remains an impressive Category 4 hurricane with 140 mph winds. Hilary is headed west, away from Mexico, and the storm is small enough that its outer bands are not causing flooding problems for Mexico. A trough of low pressure expected to move over the Western U.S. by the middle of the week may be strong enough to turn Hilary to the north, eventually bringing Hilary to Mexico's Baja Peninsula. The timing of this event is highly uncertain, though. Hilary is small enough that it is unlikely to bring significant drought relief to Arizona, New Mexico, and Texas if the storm's remnants move north into those states. Hilary is the fourth Category 4 hurricane in the Eastern Pacific this year, and the second strongest, behind Hurricane Dora, which had 155 mph winds.

Invest 91L set to soak North Carolina
A moderate amount of heavy thunderstorm activity has developed over the Northwestern Bahamas in association with the tail end of an old stalled front. This disturbance, Invest 91L, is under a low 5 - 10 knots of wind shear, but water vapor loops show a considerable amount of dry air to the east and west of the disturbance that will likely interfere with development. In their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 91L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday. The disturbance has only a short window to develop, as it is headed northwards and is expected to make landfall in North Carolina by Sunday afternoon. The 8 am EDT SHIPS model forecast predicts 91L will hit 35 knots of wind shear by Sunday morning, when the storm will be approaching the coast of North Carolina. Heavy rains from 91L may cause localized flooding in Morehead City, NC and surrounding regions. A moist flow of tropical air over the region has already brought rainfall amounts of 1 - 3 inches to much of Eastern North Carolina today.

Dangerous Tropical Storm Nesat headed for the Philippines
What may be the season's most dangerous storm in the Western Pacific, Tropical Storm Nesat, has formed about 700 miles east of the Philippine Islands. Nesat is under a moderate 10 knots of wind shear, is embedded in a very moist environment, has very warm sea surface temperatures of 30°C under it, and a very favorable upper-level outflow pattern above it. Nesat has plenty of time to intensify into a major typhoon before its expected landfall on Luzon Island in the Philippines on Tuesday morning.

I'll have an update before 2 pm Sunday afternoon.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting rkay1:
2011 (That Impacted CONUS)
ZERO.



Lol fail. Don, Irene, and Lee ring a bell?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
It's storming pretty good in North Miami and Fort Lauderdale today.
Plenty of heat generated storms over the southern half of Florida.

We've had several T storms today at my location.
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Invest 91L would look better if it wasn't so elongated.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32839
Quoting JLPR2:


It seems it did the same thing yesterday, will probably be at 19N in an hour. LOL! XD


lol I hope no!!! Lol wanna get some rain from it ^-^
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
ON THIS DATE
September 24

2005
H Rita

2006
H Helene

2007
TS Jerry
H Karen
H Lorenzo (forming)

2008
nothing

2009
TD 8 (forming)

2010
H Lisa
TS Nicole


2011
TS Ophelia
TS Philippe
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32839
Quoting hurricane23:


Nope...

Broad low pressure over the bahamas will set up a few wet afternoons across eastcoast metro areas as it drags a trof of low pressure northward into sfl inchancing precip chances. Things could get even get into the severe side tommorow.
That is exactly what I was hearing from our local Mets here in Miami,that tomorrow can be a very NASTY RAINY DAY!!!.
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My daughter's birthday is Oct. 12th. Almost every year there's a tropical system just before her birthday.
I would always get worried that there would be a hurricane on her birthday.

So we've definitely got plenty of time left. It's only Sept. 24th.
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201. JLPR2
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Latest for Ophelia

16LOPHELIA.45kts-1006mb-177N-570W.


Previous

Location: 17.8�N 56.0�W
Max sustained: 50 mph
Moving: NW at 13 mph
Min pressure: 1006 mb


Moving west ?


It seems it did the same thing yesterday, will probably be at 19N in an hour. LOL! XD
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
Quoting BahaHurican:
This is the difference between scientific reasoning and emotive reaction. Here, cat5 is emoting. It has nothing to do with the scientific facts, which are that Hurricane Irene impacted the Antilles, Bahamas, and EC US. One person's opinion of the storm doesn't make it less a storm.

Meanwhile, I'm sitting under yet another orange hatching, wondering if yet another tropical system will be born in or near Bahamian waters. It really doesn't matter if I think it's a great storm or as cat5 euphemistically put it, a piece of garbage storm. The fact is, there is potentially a storm forming right over my head.

If you are here to emote your personal view, rather than reason scientifically about the various systems, you are basically wasting my time. You can say, with absolute accuracy, that Jose was a very short-lived system that may not have needed classification. But the emoting is useless, boring and really gets old after a while.

(at bolded part)LIES! Jose was FABULOUS!
lol j/k +1
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
ON THIS DATE
September 24

2005
H Rita

2006
H Helene

2007
TS Jerry
H Karen
H Lorenzo (forming)

2008
nothing

2009
TD 8 (forming)

2010
H Lisa
TS Nicole

2011
TS Ophelia
TS Philippe (most likely)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Drakoen:
TD 17 likely a tropical storm now with Final ADT numbers around 3.1 and raw numbers 3.4.
Looking very TS-ish, I agree. Any suggestions on likely track?
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Quoting Neapolitan:
Special Guest Comment:

"Hello, everyone. I've been reading some of the comments here today, and I have a few things I feel I need to say to you all.

"First, I wish to apologize that the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season hasn't thus far been as entertaining as some would like it to have been. At first, I thought 16 named storms by the last week of September would be sufficient, but it's clear that I misjudged. Mea culpa.

"I also wish to apologize for the low body count and damage amount; I know that my tropical cyclones in this basin have thus far only managed to kill a little over 100 people and cause at best $15-$20 billion dollars in damage. But please understand: with the tsunami and the earthquakes and the floods and the tornadoes and the heat and the drought, I've been very busy this year. There is, after all, only so much of me to go around.

"Nevertheless, I can do better. I want everyone to be aware of two things: 1) there are still more than nine weeks left in this season, and 2) the 2012 hurricane season starts in just 250 days. So please be patient with me; for those of you bored by this lackluster season full of nothing but 'weak, pathetic' storms, I promise more death and destruction both this fall and next year.

"Thanks for listening."

--Signed, Mother Nature

XD
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
Quoting cat5hurricane:

Ophelia = Fish.

TD 17 = Fish, plus yet another example of the NHC padding numbers to try to justify them predicting yet ANOTHER overhyped, exaggerated 2011 outlook of all those predicted storms forming.

Yet another shame on an yet another government agency tax payers are subjected to.

Disgraceful.

Next please.


+1
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 614
Quoting CybrTeddy:
No surprise, Tropical Storm Philippe.. the 16th named storm of the 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season.


Last year, after this date 2010 experienced 6 named storms.

Nicole (September) Otto (October) Paula (October) Richard (October) Shary (October) and Tomas (October-November)

It would not be a surprise to have 6 more named storms this year..

That would bring us to Alpha.
out of those 6 4 of them formed or went into the carribean :)
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Tropical Storm Philippe:

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32839
TAFB at 35kts FWIW.

AL, 17, 201109241800, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1100N, 2730W, , 3, 35, 2, 1005, 2, DVRK, , , , , , , , , , , , , , L, TAFB, HC, VI, 5, 2525 /////, , , MET9, CSC, T,
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Special Guest Comment:

"Hello, everyone. I've been reading some of the comments here today, and I have a few things I feel I need to say to you all.

"First, I wish to apologize that the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season hasn't thus far been as entertaining as some would like it to have been. At first, I thought 16 named storms by the last week of September would be sufficient, but it's clear that I misjudged. Mea culpa.

"I also wish to apologize for the low body count and damage amount; I know that my tropical cyclones in this basin have thus far only managed to kill a little over 100 people and cause at best $15-$20 billion dollars in damage. But please understand: with the tsunami and the earthquakes and the floods and the tornadoes and the heat and the drought, I've been very busy this year. There is, after all, only so much of me to go around.

"Nevertheless, I can do better. I want everyone to be aware of two things: 1) there are still more than nine weeks left in this season, and 2) the 2012 hurricane season starts in just 250 days. So please be patient with me; for those of you bored by this lackluster season full of nothing but 'weak, pathetic' storms, I promise more death and destruction both this fall and next year.

"Thanks for listening."

--Signed, Mother Nature
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LOL Nea. I hope Mother Nature is too tired to do much more this year.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
Special Guest Comment:

"Hello, everyone. I've been reading some of the comments here today, and I have a few things I feel I need to say to you all.

"First, I wish to apologize that the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season hasn't thus far been as entertaining as some would like it to have been. At first, I thought 16 named storms by the last week of September would be sufficient, but I assume I misjudged. Mea culpa.

"I also wish to apologize for the low body count and damage amount; I know that my tropical cyclones in this basin have thus far only managed to kill a little over 100 people and cause at best $15-$20 billion dollars in damage. But please understand: with the tsunami and the earthquakes and the floods and the tornadoes and the heat and the drought, I've been very busy this year. There is, after all, only so much of me to go around.

"Nevertheless, I can do better. I want everyone to be aware of two things: 1) there are still more than nine weeks left in this season, and 2) the 2012 hurricane season starts in just 250 days. So please be patient with me; for those of you bored by this lackluster season full of nothing but 'weak, pathetic' storms, I promise more death and destruction both this fall and next year.

"Thanks for listening."

--Signed, Mother Nature

lol.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32839
Latest for Ophelia

16LOPHELIA.45kts-1006mb-177N-570W.


Previous

Location: 17.8N 56.0W
Max sustained: 50 mph
Moving: NW at 13 mph
Min pressure: 1006 mb


Moving west ?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
24/1745 UTC 18.2N 56.7W T2.0/2.0 OPHELIA

... so who knows
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Special Guest Comment:

"Hello, everyone. I've been reading some of the comments here today, and I have a few things I feel I need to say to you all.

"First, I wish to apologize that the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season hasn't thus far been as entertaining as some would like it to have been. At first, I thought 16 named storms by the last week of September would be sufficient, but it's clear that I misjudged. Mea culpa.

"I also wish to apologize for the low body count and damage amount; I know that my tropical cyclones in this basin have thus far only managed to kill a little over 100 people and cause at best $15-$20 billion dollars in damage. But please understand: with the tsunami and the earthquakes and the floods and the tornadoes and the heat and the drought, I've been very busy this year. There is, after all, only so much of me to go around.

"Nevertheless, I can do better. I want everyone to be aware of two things: 1) there are still more than nine weeks left in this season, and 2) the 2012 hurricane season starts in just 250 days. So please be patient with me; for those of you bored by this lackluster season full of nothing but 'weak, pathetic' storms, I promise more death and destruction both this fall and next year.

"Thanks for listening."

--Signed, Mother Nature
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Just click the hide button.


I can't scroll up far enough to click hide..
same with GerlindeEspinosa's picture, needs to be replaced with a link.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24576
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Dang, you're right. Either way, it's going to be difficult for moisture to make it into south Florida with subsidence from the longwave over the eastern U.S pumping dry air southeastward.



Nope...

Broad low pressure over the bahamas will set up a few wet afternoons across eastcoast metro areas as it drags a trof of low pressure northward into sfl inchancing precip chances. Things could get even get into the severe side tommorow.
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Center Fix Coordinates: 17°07'N 57°23'W (17.1167N 57.3833W)

Is that true?
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Quoting cat5hurricane:

That's what I'm hoping too. Wouldn't want another Megi bearing down on Luzon. How's Hong Kong looking to fare on this on after passage of Philipines?
Quoting CybrTeddy:
IceCoast, remove that picture of Megi..

Causing my browser to crash.


Removed, and kept the link up. My bad it was a pretty large file.

I think it should go east of Hong Kong, but that's a long way out from here to say with any amount of certainty. GFS and FIM show something like this but the ECMWF is farther west and closer to Hong Kong.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
IceCoast, remove that picture of Megi..

Causing my browser to crash.
Just click the hide button.
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Afternoon all.... it's getting pretty loud here in the little grey hollow between clouds... lol



We got around 1/2 inch of rain yesterday afternoon, and almost another inch today so far. Looks like we may end up with 2-3 inches in 48 hours at this rate. It sure has cooled things off a bit; yesterday we hit 95 degrees, well above average for late September.

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IceCoast, remove that picture of Megi..

Causing my browser to crash.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24576
the next name storm is the R storm
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
FWIW:

Philippe - fee-LEEP
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32839
No surprise, Tropical Storm Philippe.. the 16th named storm of the 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season.


Last year, after this date 2010 experienced 6 named storms.

Nicole (September) Otto (October) Paula (October) Richard (October) Shary (October) and Tomas (October-November)

It would not be a surprise to have 6 more named storms this year..

That would bring us to Alpha.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24576
Quoting cat5hurricane:

Maybe another Megi??


Ya, can't say it doesn't come to mind when you look at the forecasted intensity before landfall.

Typhoon Megi
Full size image
Link

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Phillipe is born.
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Sounds about right to me:

AL, 17, 2011092418, , BEST, 0, 110N, 274W, 35, 1006, TS, 34, NEQ, 40, 0, 0, 40, 1011, 180, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, SEVENTEEN, M,
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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