Ophelia remains weak; TD 17 forms; dangerous Nesat headed for the Philippines

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:54 PM GMT on September 24, 2011

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There's not much change to Tropical Storm Ophelia today, which continues to battle dry air and high wind shear. Satellite imagery shows that Ophelia has little heavy thunderstorm activity near its low level circulation center, which is mostly exposed to view. Most of the storm's heavy thunderstorms are to the east of the center, with just a few puffs of thunderstorms occasionally popping up near the center. An analysis from the University of Wisconsin CIMMS group shows a high 20 - 25 knots of wind shear due to strong upper-level southwesterly winds. Water vapor satellite images show Ophelia is at the eastern edge of large area of very dry air.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Ophelia showing the low-level center exposed to view, with all the storm's heavy thunderstorms in a band several hundred miles to the east and south. This is not a healthy-looking tropical storm.

Forecast for Ophelia
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that Ophelia will experience high wind shear of 20 - 40 knots over the next five days, and will move into a region with slightly drier air. This combination of shear and dry air may be enough to dissipate Ophelia, as predicted by several of the models. However, Ophelia has maintained itself better than the models have predicted, so the storm will probably survive until at least Sunday. Even it Ophelia does dissipate, it will have the chance to regenerate by Tuesday or Wednesday, when it may encounter a region of lower wind shear. At this time, it appears that Ophelia will only be a threat to Bermuda.

TD 17 forms
Tropical Depression 17 formed in the far eastern Atlantic off the coast of Africa last night, and is likely to intensify into Tropical Storm Philippe later today. TD 17 has some impressive low-level spiral bands and upper-level outflow, and is very close to tropical storm strength. The predicted west-northwest to northwest track of TD 17 will put it in a position where historically, very few storms have ever gone on to hit land.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Hilary at 4:05 pm EDT September 23, 2011. At the time, Hilary was a Category 4 storm with 145 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Powerful Hurricane Hilary remains at Category 4 strength
In the Eastern Pacific, Hurricane Hilary remains an impressive Category 4 hurricane with 140 mph winds. Hilary is headed west, away from Mexico, and the storm is small enough that its outer bands are not causing flooding problems for Mexico. A trough of low pressure expected to move over the Western U.S. by the middle of the week may be strong enough to turn Hilary to the north, eventually bringing Hilary to Mexico's Baja Peninsula. The timing of this event is highly uncertain, though. Hilary is small enough that it is unlikely to bring significant drought relief to Arizona, New Mexico, and Texas if the storm's remnants move north into those states. Hilary is the fourth Category 4 hurricane in the Eastern Pacific this year, and the second strongest, behind Hurricane Dora, which had 155 mph winds.

Invest 91L set to soak North Carolina
A moderate amount of heavy thunderstorm activity has developed over the Northwestern Bahamas in association with the tail end of an old stalled front. This disturbance, Invest 91L, is under a low 5 - 10 knots of wind shear, but water vapor loops show a considerable amount of dry air to the east and west of the disturbance that will likely interfere with development. In their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 91L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday. The disturbance has only a short window to develop, as it is headed northwards and is expected to make landfall in North Carolina by Sunday afternoon. The 8 am EDT SHIPS model forecast predicts 91L will hit 35 knots of wind shear by Sunday morning, when the storm will be approaching the coast of North Carolina. Heavy rains from 91L may cause localized flooding in Morehead City, NC and surrounding regions. A moist flow of tropical air over the region has already brought rainfall amounts of 1 - 3 inches to much of Eastern North Carolina today.

Dangerous Tropical Storm Nesat headed for the Philippines
What may be the season's most dangerous storm in the Western Pacific, Tropical Storm Nesat, has formed about 700 miles east of the Philippine Islands. Nesat is under a moderate 10 knots of wind shear, is embedded in a very moist environment, has very warm sea surface temperatures of 30°C under it, and a very favorable upper-level outflow pattern above it. Nesat has plenty of time to intensify into a major typhoon before its expected landfall on Luzon Island in the Philippines on Tuesday morning.

I'll have an update before 2 pm Sunday afternoon.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting stormpetrol:
Looks like Ophelia might have more centers than Grand Cayman has roundabouts!
I agree, saw the one to the SW coming on through the day, now ???????
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NASA: 'We May Never Know' Whereabouts of Satellite Debris
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5626
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Come to think of it...no. Wonder why.
Probably got just as fed up with the BS as the rest of the valued bloggers. Not too many good ones left on here.
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Come to think of it...no. Wonder why.


not sure it very unsual
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Dry air and wind shear are beginning to really affect the bands and outer part of Hilary, other its eye and eyewall are holding strong.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31453
Quoting will40:
has anyone seen Ike on here lately?

Come to think of it...no. Wonder why.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5626
Quoting luigi18:
Link
Member Since: September 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 470
Quoting will40:
has anyone seen Ike on here lately?


Ike? Nope...not seen him lately. However, he is probably lurking from here on out.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31453
255. JLPR2
What seems to have happened with Ophelia is that the tight swirl we were following opened up and a broader LLC formed slightly SW of where the main LLC was.

Ophelia is a broad mess.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8499
Looks like Ophelia might have more centers than Grand Cayman has roundabouts!
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Quoting luigi18:
Link


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/vis-l.jpg
Member Since: September 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 470
Advisory comes out in a little while...We'll see if the NHC upgrades it to TS Philippe like ATCF updated, or if they defer from ATCF and keep it as a tropical depression.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31453
Link
Quoting CaribBoy:


It's hard to find a center with her
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has anyone seen Ike on here lately?
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248. JLPR2
Quoting Tazmanian:




am up too 109


108. Almost the same.

If it has to be done, it will be done. :)
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8499
Congratulations ARMudWeather, you are #150 on my Ignore List. Thank you for contributing to the decay of this blog >:(
Ophelia:
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5626
Wow.... I am still amazed.... let me see which word people are minusing...

emotive?

reason?

cat5?

waste my time?

LOL.... you guys r a joke...

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21484
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Crankin out the ignore list today.. wow.




am up too 109
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114718
Quoting HuracandelCaribe:
September 27, 1932  San Ciprian Hurricane



my grand ma always talk about San Ciprian as a small hurricane
Member Since: September 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 470
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


those were on my list


No...you just added them on the list ;)

I see why people have left this blog, because of the behavior from other bloggers that were exhibited. The ignore feature doesn't work because other people quote the bloggers (guilty, sadly). Regardless, I won't post anything else off the topic of tropical weather, and I'm going to ignore every one of the trolls.

I really am getting sick of this blog though...maybe I need a break? (I get that after hurricane season :))
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31453
Quoting luigi18:
Ophelia is moving more west than north in the last frames?


It's hard to find a center with her
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Quoting Hurricane1956:
That is exactly what I was hearing from our local Mets here in Miami,that tomorrow can be a very NASTY RAINY DAY!!!.
We've gotten quite a bit of rain, and some impressive sheet lightning across New Providence. Even if the system moves generally Nward, I could see it being broad enough to bring some weather to the east coast FL tomorrow and tomorrow night.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21484
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


2011
TS Ophelia
TS Philippe


those were on my list
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14870
I see somebody's "corns got mashed" by my comment responding to cat5's constant emotive bashing of the 2011 season. I will say it again. If you are just going to get all emotional about the season, and shouting down every storm as the NHC padding the season rather than evaluating each on its individual merits, you are wasting my time. Pressing the minus button enough times to make my comment "disappear" won't change that.

Additionally calling storms that impacted the Caribbean, Bermuda and Canada "fish storms", or dismissing a cat 4/5 monster bearing down on the Phillipines because it is "thousands of miles away from the US" doesn't do much to impress me with a blogger's emotional maturity.

I notice P451 hasn't been allowed to return to the blog, and I can't say I know the reasoning for that. However, I have to give respect to that blogger because he was conscientious in attempting to support his concerns about below-forecast intensity storms by referring to the scientific evidence he had at hand. He didn't always agree with what NHC had to say about systems, either, but he disagreed in a REASONED manner, rather than simply emoting about it. I respect that.

Again, if you only are going to provide the same emotional statement about all the systems this year and not try to support your opinion with some reasoned argument, I still think you are wasting my time.

Have fun with the minus key on this one.....
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21484
Ophelia is moving more west than north in the last frames?
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Quoting JLPR2:


No, don't give up on the blog like many other have, just put the chicken brains on ignore. :)


DO I HAVE TO TEACH THE LESSON AGAIN TODAY?

Behavior that is reinforced WILL be repeated.

Behavior that is NOT reinforced will be extinguished.

In other words, DON'T FEED THE TROLLS.

Using the IGNORE button keeps you from seeing their posts, and you will not be tempted to respond!!!!!
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Crankin out the ignore list today.. wow.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23568
September 27, 1932  San Ciprian Hurricane

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231. JLPR2
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Respect other bloggers who are bashing the National Hurricane Center and calling Irene a piece of trash storm?

Uh...no.

I'm out, sick of this blog.


No, don't give up on the blog like many other have, just put the chicken brains on ignore. :)
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8499
Quoting interstatelover7165:
where do you get that?


maybe cuz it is dark out there?
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Good night Philippe, see you in the morning.

where do you get that?
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Quoting GeorgiaWx65:
Quit acting like a little bitch TropicalAnalystwx13 and man up.


Totally uncalled for.

TA13, you do a great job and are open minded. Ignore when a few decide to gang up.
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Quoting ARMudWeather:
Seriously TropicalAnalystwx13,,quit the horseplay "whaaaaahh,,i going to put you on ignore if you don't stop!!!!! whaaaaaaa.

cry like a baby. that's how you sound.respect other bloggers on here.


Respect other bloggers who are bashing the National Hurricane Center and calling Irene a piece of trash storm?

Uh...no.

I'm out, sick of this blog.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31453
Quoting Thrawst:


Thanks, love the sarcasm hehe :P
oh, i'm happy cause we are under some serious drought.
Hey, Dude. Yesterday afternoon was some of the worst driving weather we've had all year.... lol .... almost floated down Bay St....

Quoting cat5hurricane:

And Yet here's ANOTHER example of something so miniscule that'll end up getting classified, and turn out to be nothing more than a bogus sub-tropical feature (nothing more than a tropical wave, in essence) that will end up bringing healthy rain to the OBX.

Next please.
Dude.... give it a rest. It's only got 30% on it for a reason. Try REASON instead of mere emotion.

Quoting cat5hurricane:

How did you hold up with Irene, Baha?
I made it out ok, some serious tree damage and all but one of the avocado pears down. Southeastern and Central Bahamas had it MUCH worse; power out on 7 islands, extensive roof loss, flooding, and structural damage in 6 of those islands, and my grandmother's roof was blown off. Only lucky thing about Irene for the Bahamas was that the areas with the heaviest impacts are also the areas with our lowest population density. Sort of like the King Ranch area of coastal TX. If Irene had held to that more westerly track I'd still be off line today; damage in NP would have been massive. Fortunately we had no deaths here.

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21484
Quoting Neapolitan:
Special Guest Comment:

"Hello, everyone. I've been reading some of the comments here today, and I have a few things I feel I need to say to you all.

"First, I wish to apologize that the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season hasn't thus far been as entertaining as some would like it to have been. At first, I thought 16 named storms by the last week of September would be sufficient, but it's clear that I misjudged. Mea culpa.

"I also wish to apologize for the low body count and damage amount; I know that my tropical cyclones in this basin have thus far only managed to kill a little over 100 people and cause at best $15-$20 billion dollars in damage. But please understand: with the tsunami and the earthquakes and the floods and the tornadoes and the heat and the drought, I've been very busy this year. There is, after all, only so much of me to go around.

"Nevertheless, I can do better. I want everyone to be aware of two things: 1) there are still more than nine weeks left in this season, and 2) the 2012 hurricane season starts in just 250 days. So please be patient with me; for those of you bored by this lackluster season full of nothing but 'weak, pathetic' storms, I promise more death and destruction both this fall and next year.

"Thanks for listening."

--Signed, Mother Nature


I've been watching you--you are one clever cookie--smart, too!
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Good night Philippe, see you in the morning.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31453
Quoting jascott1967:
Dear Mother Nature,

You need not apologize to those on this board but you may want to pay the NHC a visit, they keep lying about you behind your back.

Regards,
Reality


I'll use the same thing for you...
---------------------------------------
Go away, before people jump you.

EDIT: Nevermind...Instead of wasting my time on you, I'll talk tropics and put you on ignore.

Everybody should do the same....Obviously.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31453
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Afternoon T Storms over South Florida.

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Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


Lol fail. Don, Irene, and Lee ring a bell?

Why is Don on the list? Didn't even bring rain.
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Quoting Sfloridacat5:
It's storming pretty good in North Miami and Fort Lauderdale today.
Plenty of heat generated storms over the southern half of Florida.

We've had several T storms today at my location.


Lucky you are!
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Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31453
Quoting rkay1:
2011 (That Impacted CONUS)
ZERO.



Lol fail. Don, Irene, and Lee ring a bell?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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