Ophelia remains weak; TD 17 forms; dangerous Nesat headed for the Philippines

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:54 PM GMT on September 24, 2011

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There's not much change to Tropical Storm Ophelia today, which continues to battle dry air and high wind shear. Satellite imagery shows that Ophelia has little heavy thunderstorm activity near its low level circulation center, which is mostly exposed to view. Most of the storm's heavy thunderstorms are to the east of the center, with just a few puffs of thunderstorms occasionally popping up near the center. An analysis from the University of Wisconsin CIMMS group shows a high 20 - 25 knots of wind shear due to strong upper-level southwesterly winds. Water vapor satellite images show Ophelia is at the eastern edge of large area of very dry air.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Ophelia showing the low-level center exposed to view, with all the storm's heavy thunderstorms in a band several hundred miles to the east and south. This is not a healthy-looking tropical storm.

Forecast for Ophelia
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that Ophelia will experience high wind shear of 20 - 40 knots over the next five days, and will move into a region with slightly drier air. This combination of shear and dry air may be enough to dissipate Ophelia, as predicted by several of the models. However, Ophelia has maintained itself better than the models have predicted, so the storm will probably survive until at least Sunday. Even it Ophelia does dissipate, it will have the chance to regenerate by Tuesday or Wednesday, when it may encounter a region of lower wind shear. At this time, it appears that Ophelia will only be a threat to Bermuda.

TD 17 forms
Tropical Depression 17 formed in the far eastern Atlantic off the coast of Africa last night, and is likely to intensify into Tropical Storm Philippe later today. TD 17 has some impressive low-level spiral bands and upper-level outflow, and is very close to tropical storm strength. The predicted west-northwest to northwest track of TD 17 will put it in a position where historically, very few storms have ever gone on to hit land.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Hilary at 4:05 pm EDT September 23, 2011. At the time, Hilary was a Category 4 storm with 145 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Powerful Hurricane Hilary remains at Category 4 strength
In the Eastern Pacific, Hurricane Hilary remains an impressive Category 4 hurricane with 140 mph winds. Hilary is headed west, away from Mexico, and the storm is small enough that its outer bands are not causing flooding problems for Mexico. A trough of low pressure expected to move over the Western U.S. by the middle of the week may be strong enough to turn Hilary to the north, eventually bringing Hilary to Mexico's Baja Peninsula. The timing of this event is highly uncertain, though. Hilary is small enough that it is unlikely to bring significant drought relief to Arizona, New Mexico, and Texas if the storm's remnants move north into those states. Hilary is the fourth Category 4 hurricane in the Eastern Pacific this year, and the second strongest, behind Hurricane Dora, which had 155 mph winds.

Invest 91L set to soak North Carolina
A moderate amount of heavy thunderstorm activity has developed over the Northwestern Bahamas in association with the tail end of an old stalled front. This disturbance, Invest 91L, is under a low 5 - 10 knots of wind shear, but water vapor loops show a considerable amount of dry air to the east and west of the disturbance that will likely interfere with development. In their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 91L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday. The disturbance has only a short window to develop, as it is headed northwards and is expected to make landfall in North Carolina by Sunday afternoon. The 8 am EDT SHIPS model forecast predicts 91L will hit 35 knots of wind shear by Sunday morning, when the storm will be approaching the coast of North Carolina. Heavy rains from 91L may cause localized flooding in Morehead City, NC and surrounding regions. A moist flow of tropical air over the region has already brought rainfall amounts of 1 - 3 inches to much of Eastern North Carolina today.

Dangerous Tropical Storm Nesat headed for the Philippines
What may be the season's most dangerous storm in the Western Pacific, Tropical Storm Nesat, has formed about 700 miles east of the Philippine Islands. Nesat is under a moderate 10 knots of wind shear, is embedded in a very moist environment, has very warm sea surface temperatures of 30°C under it, and a very favorable upper-level outflow pattern above it. Nesat has plenty of time to intensify into a major typhoon before its expected landfall on Luzon Island in the Philippines on Tuesday morning.

I'll have an update before 2 pm Sunday afternoon.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting rockcity340:


lol wow caribboy you really want a hurricane don't you i live in the Caribbean too and i can remember storms like Luis Marilyn Bertha i don't need anymore be careful my friend of what you wish for


Thanks buddy.. don't worry i don't want a Luis a lenny, or a Georges! I just want some interesting weather like nice thunderstorms, a TD or a TS. Ophelia looks good to me ;) weak TS..
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000
FONT12 KNHC 242055
PWSAT2

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011
2100 UTC SAT SEP 24 2011

AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 11.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 27.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME


I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE

CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.


- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -

VALID TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED 1 1 1 1 2 2 2
TROP DEPRESSION 11 15 8 4 6 8 11
TROPICAL STORM 86 75 67 48 50 49 52
HURRICANE 2 9 25 47 42 41 35
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 2 8 21 34 31 31 26
HUR CAT 2 X 1 3 10 9 7 7
HUR CAT 3 X X 1 3 3 3 2
HUR CAT 4 X X X 1 X X X
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 40KT 45KT 55KT 65KT 65KT 65KT 65KT


II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU

FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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NHC thinks Philippe will become a hurricane on Monday.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


000
WTNT22 KNHC 242055
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011
2100 UTC SAT SEP 24 2011

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 27.9W AT 24/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 27.9W AT 24/2100Z
AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 27.4W

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 11.6N 29.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 12.5N 31.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 13.6N 33.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 14.8N 34.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 25SW 35NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 16.8N 36.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 25SW 35NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 19.5N 38.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 22.0N 39.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.2N 27.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


000
WTNT32 KNHC 242055
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011
500 PM AST SAT SEP 24 2011

...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE OVER THE FAR
EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.2N 27.9W
ABOUT 345 MI...550 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 27.9 WEST. PHILIPPE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
EXPECTED ON MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


000
WTNT42 KNHC 242056
TCDAT2

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011
500 PM AST SAT SEP 24 2011

A CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING AT LEAST HALFWAY AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF
THE CYCLONE HAS DEVELOPED SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. AS RESULT...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 35 KT...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH
THE 18Z TAFB DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5/35 KT.
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS GOOD TO FAIR IN ALL QUADRANTS AND HAS BEEN
SLOWLY IMPROVING.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/12. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK REASONING. PHILIPPE IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A STRONG
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. BY 48-72
HOURS...A BREAK IN THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 40-45W
LONGITUDE AS A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD
OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
PHILIPPE SLOWING DOWN AND GRADUALLY TURNING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...
AND THEN TOWARD THE NORTH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WAS NUDGED
SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK DUE TO THE MORE WESTWARD
INITIAL POSITION...AND IS SIMILAR TO THE CONSENSUS MODEL TVCN.

THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR PHILIPPE TO STRENGTHEN IS EXPECTED TO BE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO WHEN THE SHEAR IS THE LOWEST AND THE
THERMODYNAMICS ARE THE GREATEST. BY 72 HOURS...SOUTHWESTERLY
VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO ABOUT 15 KT...WHICH MAY
NOT BE ENOUGH TO SIGNIFICANTLY INHIBIT THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS.
AS A RESULT...PHILIPPE IS EXPECTED TO REACH HURRICANE STATUS IN
48-72 HOURS...AND THEN LEVEL OFF SIMILAR TO THAT FORECAST BY THE
SHIPS AND LGEM STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL MODELS. HOWEVER...IT IS WORTH
NOTING THAT THE GFDL AND EXPERIMENTAL HFIP INTENSITY MODELS MAKE
PHILIPPE A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE BY DAYS 4 AND 5.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/2100Z 11.2N 27.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 25/0600Z 11.6N 29.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 25/1800Z 12.5N 31.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 26/0600Z 13.6N 33.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 26/1800Z 14.8N 34.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 27/1800Z 16.8N 36.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 28/1800Z 19.5N 38.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 29/1800Z 22.0N 39.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
"HOWEVER...IT IS WORTH
NOTING THAT THE GFDL AND EXPERIMENTAL HFIP INTENSITY MODELS MAKE
PHILIPPE A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE BY DAYS 4 AND 5."
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32286
I think Hilary is stronger than 115kt I think 125kt.

Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3842
Phillipe forecast to become a hurricane on Monday.

ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011
500 PM AST SAT SEP 24 2011

A CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING AT LEAST HALFWAY AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF
THE CYCLONE HAS DEVELOPED SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. AS RESULT...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 35 KT...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH
THE 18Z TAFB DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5/35 KT.
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS GOOD TO FAIR IN ALL QUADRANTS AND HAS BEEN
SLOWLY IMPROVING.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/12. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK REASONING. PHILIPPE IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A STRONG
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. BY 48-72
HOURS...A BREAK IN THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 40-45W
LONGITUDE AS A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD
OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
PHILIPPE SLOWING DOWN AND GRADUALLY TURNING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...
AND THEN TOWARD THE NORTH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WAS NUDGED
SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK DUE TO THE MORE WESTWARD
INITIAL POSITION...AND IS SIMILAR TO THE CONSENSUS MODEL TVCN.

THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR PHILIPPE TO STRENGTHEN IS EXPECTED TO BE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO WHEN THE SHEAR IS THE LOWEST AND THE
THERMODYNAMICS ARE THE GREATEST. BY 72 HOURS...SOUTHWESTERLY
VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO ABOUT 15 KT...WHICH MAY
NOT BE ENOUGH TO SIGNIFICANTLY INHIBIT THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS.
AS A RESULT...PHILIPPE IS EXPECTED TO REACH HURRICANE STATUS IN
48-72 HOURS...AND THEN LEVEL OFF SIMILAR TO THAT FORECAST BY THE
SHIPS AND LGEM STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL MODELS. HOWEVER...IT IS WORTH
NOTING THAT THE GFDL AND EXPERIMENTAL HFIP INTENSITY MODELS MAKE
PHILIPPE A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE BY DAYS 4 AND 5.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/2100Z 11.2N 27.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 25/0600Z 11.6N 29.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 25/1800Z 12.5N 31.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 26/0600Z 13.6N 33.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 26/1800Z 14.8N 34.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 27/1800Z 16.8N 36.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 28/1800Z 19.5N 38.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 29/1800Z 22.0N 39.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

NNNN
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Quoting will40:



i think they hate to move the cone lol
I agree. Moving west but the cone is still NW. Weird.
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now they have him
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any news on td 17?
Member Since: August 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1725
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
NEW CONVECTION HAS BEEN DEVELOPING IN THE INNER CORE
REGION NEAR THE ALLEGED LOW-LEVEL CENTER..


Can't be too sure about projected path if they are not even sure of the exact LLC.



i think they hate to move the cone lol
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


lol, they're making the forecast package :P



ok
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115244
Quoting Tazmanian:
some one at the nhc for got TD 17 lol


lol, they're making the forecast package :P
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32286
Quoting CaribBoy:


I would enjoy that!!!!!!!!!!!!!! lol


lol wow caribboy you really want a hurricane don't you i live in the Caribbean too and i can remember storms like Luis Marilyn Bertha i don't need anymore be careful my friend of what you wish for
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some one at the nhc for got TD 17 lol
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115244
Quoting Tazmanian:




am up too 109


WOW! I thought being at 44 was high. I can see how you could get there though. Some days it seems like it never ends...
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Quoting sunlinepr:


That's exactly our concern.... like some here comented this morning... the proyected path could be revised....


However not at the 5PM advisory. Lol I can't understand that. Even the GFS shows a WEST track.. So maybe at 11 that will change
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Quoting clwstmchasr:
No watches and warnings for the Islands in the 5:00 advisory. Forecast path is well to the north of the Northern Antilles.
NEW CONVECTION HAS BEEN DEVELOPING IN THE INNER CORE
REGION NEAR THE ALLEGED LOW-LEVEL CENTER..


Can't be too sure about projected path if they are not even sure of the exact LLC.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
ok guys the reason why we havent seen "powerfull" storms like last year is because our vertical instability is at a recored low. WSI pointed that out. next year if we dont get el nino numbers could be 13-18 again
so what effect does climate change have on Vertical Instability?? increase.. decrease.. ?? My suspicion is that 'WE DON'T KNOW YET'. any thoughts??
Member Since: September 9, 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 1034
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
This can't be right...


Those are basically a representation of what WOULD be were there a full blown system there.
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Quoting clwstmchasr:


Taz, I'm thinking 22-23. But I just don't see anything strong developing.




ok
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115244
Quoting Relix:
NHC was illogical. WNW movement when the system only moved .1N. Wasn't the center around 17.1n after the HH passed?


Yes 17.1N ... Illogical i think as well.
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339. Relix
NHC was illogical. WNW movement when the system only moved .1N. Wasn't the center around 17.1n after the HH passed?
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Quoting Relix:


Can someone tell me how Ophelia will continue North with that high up there?!?


That's exactly our concern.... like some here comented this morning... the proyected path could be revised....
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Quoting stormpetrol:


Hey Cosmic Trust all is well, you always give me a good laugh!
All is well SP....and I wish the same for you. And thank you.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
335. JLPR2
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Really reminds me of Maria, and will enter the same conditions Maria did while north of the Caribbean Islands. Makes me think that Ophelia may become a hurricane after all.


Another mess that becomes something respectable down the road. That would be interesting to watch.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8735
Quoting luigi18:


mira el ultimo frame se esta moviendo como a 275-285
el noroeste definitivamente no occidental ni hacia el noroeste
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Quoting luigi18:


mira el ultimo frame se esta moviendo como a 275-285


Looks like shear is receiding... We should watching closely... what happens tomorow...


Parece q las condiciones desfavorables se estan disipando... y que va a desarrollarse mas... mas la trayectoria quizas cambie al Oeste...
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332. Relix
Quoting sunlinepr:




Can someone tell me how Ophelia will continue North with that high up there?!?
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<--------- Is bored.
Gonna enjoy what's left of this beautiful day.
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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
500 PM AST SAT SEP 24 2011

...OPHELIA WEAKENS SLIGHTLY AS IT MOVES ERRATICALLY TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 57.4W
ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32286
Hurricane Hilary at 115 kt./951 mb.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 951 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32286
Quoting sunlinepr:
Notice clouds moving W - North of PR.... Seems Ophelia will be close N of us...




yes the clouds are following the occ
Member Since: September 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 481
Quoting JLPR2:
Ophelia's current organization reminds me of Emily/Maria.


Really reminds me of Maria, and will enter the same conditions Maria did while north of the Caribbean Islands. Makes me think that Ophelia may become a hurricane after all.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32286
Quoting clwstmchasr:


Why?


See comment 315!
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Its a mess of something trying to form up into a tropical system. The question remains, what if she keeps herself at a low mean system and avoids the trough. What then
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Quoting sunlinepr:
Closer to Conus and PR???





mira el ultimo frame se esta moviendo como a 275-285
Member Since: September 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 481


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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


From 8AM this morning I believe:



Still old.

*sigh* Hoping we get a better pass...
Anyways, Ophelia keeps having these bursts of deep convection, and looks hideous.
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320. JLPR2
Ophelia's current organization reminds me of Emily/Maria.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8735
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32286
any one think we will get too 21 name storms this year?
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115244
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
hilary just rebuilt her western eyewall. before the pink from the western side was missing. now it has filled in. im still going with 135mph and 950mb
it will disappear right before your very eyes
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Notice clouds moving W - North of PR.... Seems Ophelia will be close N of us...

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hilary just rebuilt her western eyewall. before the pink from the western side was missing. now it has filled in. im still going with 135mph and 950mb
Member Since: August 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1725
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Any recent ASCAT passes?


From 8AM this morning I believe:



Still old.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32286

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.