Typhoon Roke batters Japan; Ophelia forms in the Central Atlantic

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:28 PM GMT on September 21, 2011

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Typhoon Roke hit Japan near Hamamatsu at 14:00 JST Wednesday as a Category 1 typhoon with 80 mph winds. Roke brought sustained winds of 62 mph, gusting to 83 mph to the Tokyo airport at 5:25 pm local time, and a wind gust of 89 mph was reported at Shizuhama Airbase. Roke has dumped heavy rains of 155 mm (6.20") at Hamamatsu and 125 mm (4.86") at Tokyo. Damage due to flooding from Roke's heavy rains will likely be the main problem from Roke, as the soils over much of Japan are saturated from the passage of Tropical Storm Talas during the first week of September. Talas was a very slow moving storm, and brought extreme rainfall amounts of over six feet to some portions of Japan. Roke brought winds less than 25 mph to the damaged Fukishima-Dai-Iche nuclear plant northeast of Tokyo, and heavy rains of 189 mm (7.50") to Hirono, located 8 miles south of the plant.


Figure 1. Radar image of Typhoon Roke as it made landfall at 14:00 JST on September 21, 2011. The typhoon brought a large area of rainfall of 50 mm/hr (2"/hr) to Japan. Image credit: Japan Meteorological Agency.


Figure 2. MODIS image of Typhoon Roke taken at 3:55 UTC on Wednesday, September 21, 2011. At the time, Roke was a Category 1 storm with 80 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Storm Ophelia forms in the Atlantic
Tropical Storm Ophelia formed last night in the Central Atlantic from the tropical wave (Invest 98L) we've been tracking this week. Satellite imagery shows that Ophelia is suffering the classic symptoms of high wind shear, with the low level center of circulation exposed to view, and the storm's heavy thunderstorms pushed to the northeast side of the center of circulation. An analysis of wind shear from the University of Wisconsin CIMMS group shows a high 20 - 30 knots of wind shear due to strong upper level west-southwesterly winds affecting Ophelia. We don't have any ship, buoy, or hurricane hunter observations of Ophelia's winds, but an ASCAT pass from 7:27 pm EDT last night found top winds of 45 mph in the northeast quadrant of the storm. Ophelia will be passing south of buoy 41041 late tonight. Water vapor satellite images show dry air to the the west of Ophelia, and the strong upper level west-southwesterly winds bringing high wind shear to the storm are also injecting dry air into the storm's core, interfering with development.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of Ophelia showing the low-level center exposed to view, with all the storm's heavy thunderstorms pushed to the northeast side.

Forecast for Ophelia
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that Ophelia will experience moderate to high wind shear of 10 - 25 knots over the next five days, and will move into a region with drier air. The combination of shear and dry air should keep Ophelia from strengthening, and could dissipate the storm, as predicted by the ECMWF and HWRF models. The Northern Lesser Antilles could see some wind gusts of 30 - 40 mph and heavy rain squalls from Ophelia on Saturday and Sunday, but right now it looks unlikely that the islands would see sustained tropical storm force winds of 39+ mph, since they are likely to be on Ophelia's weaker (dry) side. At longer ranges, Bermuda will have to keep an eye on Ophelia, since a large cut-off low pressure system over the Eastern U.S. should turn Ophelia to the northwest and then north early next week. Ophelia may eventually be a threat to Canada, but it is too early to assess the odds of this happening.

Ophelia is the 15th named storm this year, putting 2011 in 10th place for the most number of named storms in a year. Ophelia's formation date of September 21 puts 2011 in 4th place for earliest date of arrival of the season's 15th storm. Only 2005, 1936, and 1933 had an earlier 15th storm. With only three of this year's fifteen storms reaching hurricane strength, though, this year has been near average for destructive potential. Atlantic hurricane records go back to 1851.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting MahFL:


She's always been out to see, FISH %^^&&*((
tough to get one all the way west this yr going to have to back door the conus the pattern seems to be set in stone.
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4344
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Good morning, all! Ophelia reminds me of so many storms this year.
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Ophelia

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742. MahFL
Quoting hurricanejunky:
I could be wrong but based on the tightening of the model cluster, I think Ophelia is out to sea...



She's always been out to see, FISH %^^&&*((
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Good morning everyone. What is that off the west coast of Florida ?
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little spin still with ex 99 http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=JUA&product =N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes if it can make it by hispanola it could be a threat
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4344
I'm praying for my Mum and Dad at the moment they are on the liner Celebrity Millenium, departed Cabo San Lucas 6pm Wed 21/9 heading for Acapulco! Hope the Captain has an eye out for Hilary!!!
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Pouch 32L--the healthy looking mess rolling off of West Africa right now--is hanging tough so far, one of the reasons that most of the major models are predicting some level of development over the next few days. Ophelia is, of course, the storm on the left side of the image. It's interesting to note that the African wave train is definitely slowing as it makes its way into the station; the lower density and coverage of the wispy cirrus clouds reaching towards Africa from the Indian Ocean (bottom right) is as sure a sign as any that it's close to drying up for the year:

Click for larger image:

Appropriate tropical weather-related image.
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Morning everybody.

I see Ophelia bids to be a replay of 1/2 our storms since Emily.... there must be a groove in the ATL now that these lows r just rolling down.... lol



Looks like another soaking for PR...

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13.2n42.8w, 13.5n44.0w, 13.6n45.4w have been re-evaluated&altered for TS.Ophelia's_6amGMT_ATCF
12.9n42.8w, 13.0n44.0w, 13.2n45.3w, 13.3n46.5w are now the most recent positions
Starting 21Sept_6amGMT and ending 22Sept_6amGMT

The 4 eastern line-segments represent TropicalStormOphelia's path,
the westernmost line-segment is the straightline projection for 22Sept_6amGMT,
the sea-to-island dumbbell at 14.161n60.945w-UVF is the endpoint of the straightline projection
connected to its nearest airport for the 22Sept_12amGMT*mapping,
and the island blob at 17.171n61.802w-ANU is the same for the 21Sept_6pmGMT straightline projection on that same previous*mapping.

Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the
ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 12amGMT then 6amGMT :
TS.Ophelia's travel-speed was 13.5mph(21.7k/h) on a heading of 275degrees(W)
TS.Ophelia was headed toward passage over MarquisBay,St.Lucia ~2days22hours from now

Copy&paste 17.171n61.802w-anu, 14.161n60.945w-uvf, 12.8n41.3w-12.9n42.8w, 12.9n42.8w-13.0n44.0w, 13.0n44.0w-13.2n45.3w, 13.2n45.3w-13.3n46.5w, uvf, 13.2n45.3w-14.034n60.892w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info

The previous mapping for 22Sept_12amGMT on this same page above.

* The alterations of the endpoints of a TropicalCyclone's previous paths also change its previous travel-speeds&heading, and the endpoints of its previous straightline projections...
...but I'm choosing to preserve the historicity of the mappings.
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Quoting FFtrombi:
TS. Ophelia should be upgraded to 65 / 70mph at the next advisory, winds at buoy 41041 show 1min winds of 54knots (62mph) and highest gust at 68knots (78mph).


According to ATCF, you may be right.
It shows that as of 06 UTC, it has winds of 55 kts (65 mph).
AL, 16, 2011092206, , BEST, 0, 133N, 465W, 55, 994, TS,
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TS. Ophelia should be upgraded to 65 / 70mph at the next advisory, winds at buoy 41041 show 1min winds of 54knots (62mph) and highest gust at 68knots (78mph).

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Anybody minding the store?
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Edit that it just started showing a 1008 mb low. Grain of salt again, or the real thing?
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Looking like the caribbean disturbance is being dropped again by the ECMWF. If these models keep pushing it back, by the time something forms hurricane season will be over...
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT THU SEP 22 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM OPHELIA...LOCATED ABOUT 1065 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS.

A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR PUERTO RICO IS PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
NOT CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...
NEAR 0 PERCENT
...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

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729. JLPR2
Thunder is making sleeping difficult. :\

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728. JLPR2
If the center were under the convection, I would dare say this one is almost a cat1, if not one already, but the LLC is pretty displaced from the whites, so, no. XD

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Quoting NoLa86:
he reports everybody. admin doesent give a crap who he reports


Thanks. Thought it was ridiculous myself.
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Complete Update

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI






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TS.Ophelia's_12amGMT_ATCF : Starting 21Sept_12amGMT and ending 22Sept_12amGMT

The 4 eastern line-segments represent TropicalStormOphelia's path,
the westernmost line-segment is the straightline projection for 22Sept_12amGMT,
the island blob at 17.171n61.802w-ANU is the endpoint of the 21Sept_6pmGMT
straightline projection connected to its nearest airport,
and the sea-to-island blob at 17.570n63.099w-EUX is the same for the 21Sept_12pmGMT.

Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the
ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 6pmGMT then 12amGMT :
TS.Ophelia's travel-speed was 15.7mph(25.2k/h) on a heading of 274.3degrees(W)
TS.Ophelia was headed toward passing 3.5miles(5.6kilometres) north of St.Lucia ~2days14hours from now

Copy&paste 12.5n39.8w-12.8n41.3w, 12.8n41.3w-13.2n42.8w, 12.8n41.3w-17.570n63.099w, eux, 13.2n42.8w-13.5n44.0w, 13.2n42.8w-17.171n61.802w, anu, 13.5n44.0w-13.6n45.4w, 13.5n44.0w-14.161n60.945w, uvf into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the branching straightline projections and other info.
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723. Skyepony (Mod)
Models are doing a little better with 98L than they had with similar storms this season. HWFR, UKMET & GFS doing okay. Average Error in nm.
Model Name 0hr 24hr 48hr 72hr 96hr
DSHP 3.0 88.4 160.9 175.2 160.8
EGRR 34.9 48.4 - - -
GFDI 3.4 119.2 296.3 419.8 -
GFDL 13.9 94.6 250.6 395.6 -
HWRF 6.1 75.2 63.3 26.3 -
LBAR 3.0 104.1 238.1 363.3 380.7
LGEM 3.0 88.4 160.9 175.2 160.8
AEMN 41.5 75.9 88.6 104.0 -
NGPS 64.2 221.8 231.0 149.7 -
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Quoting luigi18:


if you got rolling shutters like me no problem!


My neighbor had rolling shutters during Georges... they rolled all the way two blocks away... ;-)

Well, nice rain for sleeping... Enjoy
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Quoting sunlinepr:
Highways....





looks like a big CB cloud over San Juan. High cloud tops
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5964
Got the feeling (Funk Rock)



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719. Skyepony (Mod)
Lotta lightning in the basin..


Loving the Easterly flow here. Moisture coming in, low clouds racing, little breeze...hoping for a shower.
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Quoting sunlinepr:


Just to have some fun... Do you think I should put my Tormenteras under this lighting???... 12:39 AM....

Here... do you copy???


Yes you should close your windows and stay safe inside. Do not use the telephone (even mobiles), and avoid using water when the lightnings are close.
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5964
Quoting Wariac:


Sure. Next time the "fun weather" comes my way you are invited :)


Sweet. I'll bring the booze, or whatever tickles your fancy.
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Quoting sunlinepr:


Just to have some fun... Do you think I should put my Tormenteras under this lighting???... 12:39 AM....

Here... do you copy???


if you got rolling shutters like me no problem!
Member Since: September 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 470
Goodnight people. Enjoy the blog.
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Quoting WeatherWx:


I've admired your contributions on WU btw, even though you think Im worthy of being a troll. Lets just drop it and pardon me if I offended you. With that good night;)


Well, my contributions to WU aren't strong, but I'm happy to move on. And no you didn't offend me. It takes a lot more to do that. :)
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a lots of lighting san juan metro area wow!
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Quoting DFWjc:


Forecast for Ophelia
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that Ophelia will experience moderate to high wind shear of 10 - 25 knots over the next five days, and will move into a region with drier air. The combination of shear and dry air should keep Ophelia from strengthening, and could dissipate the storm, as predicted by the ECMWF and HWRF models. The Northern Lesser Antilles could see some wind gusts of 30 - 40 mph and heavy rain squalls from Ophelia on Saturday and Sunday, but right now it looks unlikely that the islands would see sustained tropical storm force winds of 39+ mph, since they are likely to be on Ophelia's weaker (dry) side. At longer ranges, Bermuda will have to keep an eye on Ophelia, since a large cut-off low pressure system over the Eastern U.S. should turn Ophelia to the northwest and then north early next week. Ophelia may eventually be a threat to Canada, but it is too early to assess the odds of this happening.


Thank you for the info
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Quoting CaribBoy:


You look excited about the weather! Good ^^ So enjoy the lightning show.. but hopefully power won't get down!


Just to have some fun... Do you think I should put my Tormenteras under this lighting???... 12:39 AM....

Here... do you copy???
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Can I stay at your house for a night to experience this fun weather? :)


Sure. Next time the "fun weather" comes my way you are invited :)
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SAN JUAN - AT 1220 AM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGIST DETECTED AN
AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...MOVING WEST BETWEEN 20 TO 25 MPH.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS AS THEY
MAY BE WASHED OUT. WATER LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO
RISE...THEREFORE SEEK HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

INTENSE LIGHTNING IS REPORTED WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES. STRONG
WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 35 TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND PEA SIZE HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.
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Well, good night WU... we'll see how Ophelia is doing tomorow.. (0Z GFS and NOGAPS are slightly south)
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5964
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Isn't Ophelia still in close proximity to the monsoon trough? Wouldn't that inhibit development on the SWward side of the system somewhat?

Oh that's what you meant. I thought you meant the monsoon trough would strengthen the SW side for some reason.

Back to your point, yea having the monsoon trough/ITCZ out to the SW of the storm certainly doesn't help. Here's the ECMWF 12z surface wind initialization from the Wundermap. (Open image in a new tab/window to see the full size)




Shows quite nicely how the monsoon trough/ITCZ has several vorticity maximums and the convergence and vorticity there are greatly contributing to the elongated nature of our Ophelia.
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Quoting JLPR2:


Yeah, satellite isnt showing much but on radar we can see there are some strong cells in there, the strongest convection passed a mile or two to my south. Wheew... I want my power on thank you very much. XD


You look excited about the weather! Good ^^ So enjoy the lightning show.. but hopefully power won't get down!
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5964
---THE LOW PRESSURE NOW LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN VIRGIN
ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE QUICKLY WEST AND AFFECT THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED TO THIS LOW FEATURE GENERATED GUSTY WINDS
OF BETWEEN 35 TO 45 MPH.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
it is too late with all the bannings as of late we have now reached the point where there is more trolls and people trying to get around bans that it really is just a big circus now be glad when season ends and we can await the start of next season
A certain Metallica song just pop in my head.
Member Since: September 26, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 637
703. JLPR2
Quoting CaribBoy:


I'm jealous lol!!!!!!!!!!!! However on sat there nothing impressive. Just little cells.


Yeah, satellite isnt showing much but on radar we can see there are some strong cells in there. The strongest convection passed a mile or two to my south. Wheew... I want my power on thank you very much. XD
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Ok... had to run to close the windows... Water pouring, lighting and thunder.... 25-30 mph winds....

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701. DFWjc
Quoting FrankZapper:
God no, he IS Tight!


Agreed...
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Can I stay at your house for a night to experience this fun weather? :)


99L is coming ashore on the NE coast of PR tonight.
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699. DFWjc
Quoting Wariac:
Weather blog, people, weather blog. I want info on TS Ophelia not a troll contest. Back to lurking before I get flamed.

PS - Windy, rainy and lighting here in Fajardo thanks to 99L.


Forecast for Ophelia
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that Ophelia will experience moderate to high wind shear of 10 - 25 knots over the next five days, and will move into a region with drier air. The combination of shear and dry air should keep Ophelia from strengthening, and could dissipate the storm, as predicted by the ECMWF and HWRF models. The Northern Lesser Antilles could see some wind gusts of 30 - 40 mph and heavy rain squalls from Ophelia on Saturday and Sunday, but right now it looks unlikely that the islands would see sustained tropical storm force winds of 39+ mph, since they are likely to be on Ophelia's weaker (dry) side. At longer ranges, Bermuda will have to keep an eye on Ophelia, since a large cut-off low pressure system over the Eastern U.S. should turn Ophelia to the northwest and then north early next week. Ophelia may eventually be a threat to Canada, but it is too early to assess the odds of this happening.
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Quoting JLPR2:
Jeez, the lightning is getting so frequent it looks like a bunch of paparazzi. XD


I'm jealous lol!!!!!!!!!!!! However on sat there is nothing impressive. Just little cells.
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good night blog gotta work in the am
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Quoting NoLa86:
he reports everybody. admin doesent give a crap who he reports
God no, he IS Tight!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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