98L organizing; September temperatures in the U.S. return to normal

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:29 PM GMT on September 20, 2011

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A tropical wave midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles (Invest 98L) continues to look well-organized on satellite imagery, with a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity and excellent spin. An ASCAT pass from 7:47 pm EDT last night showed that 98L had a moderately well-defined surface circulation. Wind shear as diagnosed by the SHIPS model is light, less than 10 knots, and is predicted to stay light to moderate through Friday. Ocean temperatures are 28 - 28.5°C, well above the threshold typically needed for a tropical storm to spin up. Water vapor satellite images show 98L is embedded in a moist environment, but there is dry air to the system's northwest. However, given the light wind shear, this dry air may not pose a hindrance to development at this time. An analysis of upper level winds from the University of Wisconsin CIMMS group shows a pattern favorable for development, with an outflow channel open to both the north and south available to ventilate the storm and allow 98L to efficiently lift plenty of moisture to high levels.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 98L.

The models are not very aggressive about developing 98L into a tropical storm, but most of them do show some development. NHC gave the disturbance a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday in their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook. 98L's westward motion of 5 - 10 mph should bring the storm into the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday, though the models are not in strong agreement about the forward speed of the storm. The GFDL model brings 98L into the islands on Friday, while the NOGAPS model keeps the storm east of the islands through Tuesday. If 98L takes a more west-northwesterly path through northern Lesser Antilles, which has been the preferred track for tropical systems this year, the disturbance should encounter high wind shear in excess of 20 knots due to strong upper-level winds out of the west. This shear should make it difficult for 98L to intensify as it moves though the islands. However, if 98L takes a more southerly path across Barbados, as predicted by the GFDL model, the storm will miss seeing the high shear area that lies over the northern islands, and the storm would have more opportunity to strengthen. The most likely scenario I see at this point is for 98L to be a weak tropical storm on Saturday as it moves through the Lesser Antilles--but there is more than the usual amount of uncertainty in both the track and intensity forecast.

September temperatures return to normal over the U.S.
The summer of 2011 was the second hottest in U.S. history, but September of 2011 is so far shaping up to be an average one for temperature. A series of cold fronts and cold-cored low pressure systems have moved southwards out of Canada this month, bringing typical amounts of cool air to the country. If you want to select dates for the start and end of the U.S. heat wave of 2011, the dates to pick would be May 20 - September 4. During the period May 20 - September 4, 2011, the number of daily record high temperatures at the 515 major airports in the U.S. exceeded the number of daily low temperature records every day but one. That's an astonishing 107 out of 108 days! Only July 15 had more record daily lows than highs during that 108-day period. I doubt one could find a similar stretch of days anytime in U.S. weather history where such a lopsided ratio of high temperature to low temperature records existed. For the 3-month summer period of June, July, and August, 2703 daily high temperature records were set, compared to 300 daily low temperature records--a ratio of 9-to-1. Not surprisingly, the summer of 2011 wound up as the hottest summer in 75 years in the U.S., and was only 0.1°F cooler than the all-time record hottest summer, during the Dust Bowl year of 1936. But so far this September, the ratio of high temperature records to low temperature records has been close to 1-to-1. There were 283 daily high temperature records set during the first sixteen days of September, and 246 low temperature records. Eight of the first sixteen days of September have seen the lows outnumber the highs, and eight have seen the highs outnumber the lows. The latest 2-week forecast from the GFS model shows a continuation of pretty normal weather over the U.S. for the rest of the month, and September temperatures will end up close to average.

Jeff Masters

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211. HurricaneHunterJoe
4:08 AM GMT on September 21, 2011



Hmmmmmmmmmmmm
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4576
210. daddyjames
7:31 PM GMT on September 20, 2011
New Blog
Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3731
209. tropicfreak
7:29 PM GMT on September 20, 2011
Quoting CaribBoy:
OMG THE BLOG IS DEAD!!! I'm wondering what is going on;;;;


Everybody is in awe of the SUPERDOOMHYPERCANE OMEGA!
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6814
208. CaribBoy
7:29 PM GMT on September 20, 2011
Looks like february lol activity-wise!!
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5600
207. CaribBoy
7:28 PM GMT on September 20, 2011
OMG THE BLOG IS DEAD!!! I'm wondering what is going on;;;;
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5600
206. CaribBoy
7:13 PM GMT on September 20, 2011
Quoting JLPR2:
Meanwhile ex-99L is moving closer to the islands, even though its chances are slim to none, it is entering my area so I'm keeping a very close eye on it.



I'm sure it'll blow up tonight!
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5600
205. carcar1967
7:05 PM GMT on September 20, 2011
Quoting daddyjames:


Blessed with an intelligent, confident, and all-around happy kid! An absolute joy to parent - challenging at times, but a load of fun!

(humor flag) [Know that this is "off topic" and there is obvious bias, please forgive one proud papa . . .]


I can say the same about mine with the added elevated energy. He love this site when I get on at home. He loves the satellite loops and always has a lot of questions.

Trying to get him interested in everything that has to do about weather. When I was younger and single, I almost wanted to be a storm chaser. Thought it was cool.
Member Since: June 9, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 100
204. caribbeantracker01
7:04 PM GMT on September 20, 2011
Quoting leicesterlass:
My apologies to everyone for asking again but if one does not ask, one does not learn. Stormpulse shows 98 at 10.8 and 40 while WU shows 12 and 38. I thought info was obtained from same location ie NHC so don't understand why the difference. As I am in Grenada ( 12N), this variance means a great deal to me. Having survived IVAN, although losing home and possessions, I don't wish to jump the gun and start packing away everything but do wish to be prepared. I have all my emergency supplies but to board up windows, pack away treasured items, etc is a very big task for me. If it is indeed at 12 and still some 1400 miles away, there is a good chance it will pass us by. On the other hand............. I rely a great deal on the comments posted here so any info would be appreciated.


well in the first place the system has not formed as yet and once it does all the sources will and should have the same cordinates however its just timing and i cannot agree with you to say once its above 12n it should pass us by i am also in greenz and i have watched weather since 2002 so i know alot of storm history but no 2 seasons are alike,2011 is the most difficult i have seen
Member Since: May 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 496
203. Jax82
7:02 PM GMT on September 20, 2011
Gulf SSTs on the decrease now.

Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 1261
202. WxLogic
7:01 PM GMT on September 20, 2011
Quoting SLU:
20/1745 UTC 12.3N 38.3W T2.0/2.0 98L -- Atlantic


Renumbering coming soon... may be by 8PM today
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4881
201. WxLogic
6:59 PM GMT on September 20, 2011
Good Afternoon...
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4881
200. JLPR2
6:58 PM GMT on September 20, 2011
Meanwhile ex-99L is moving closer to the islands, even though its chances are slim to none, it is entering my area so I'm keeping a very close eye on it.

Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8459
199. SLU
6:57 PM GMT on September 20, 2011
20/1745 UTC 12.3N 38.3W T2.0/2.0 98L -- Atlantic
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 4734
198. JLPR2
6:56 PM GMT on September 20, 2011
Quoting leicesterlass:
My apologies to everyone for asking again but if one does not ask, one does not learn. Stormpulse shows 98 at 10.8 and 40 while WU shows 12 and 38. I thought info was obtained from same location ie NHC so don't understand why the difference. As I am in Grenada ( 12N), this variance means a great deal to me. Having survived IVAN, although losing home and possessions, I don't wish to jump the gun and start packing away everything but do wish to be prepared. I have all my emergency supplies but to board up windows, pack away treasured items, etc is a very big task for me. If it is indeed at 12 and still some 1400 miles away, there is a good chance it will pass us by. On the other hand............. I rely a great deal on the comments posted here so any info would be appreciated.


12N 38W are the official coordinates.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8459
197. leicesterlass
6:53 PM GMT on September 20, 2011
My apologies to everyone for asking again but if one does not ask, one does not learn. Stormpulse shows 98 at 10.8 and 40 while WU shows 12 and 38. I thought info was obtained from same location ie NHC so don't understand why the difference. As I am in Grenada ( 12N), this variance means a great deal to me. Having survived IVAN, although losing home and possessions, I don't wish to jump the gun and start packing away everything but do wish to be prepared. I have all my emergency supplies but to board up windows, pack away treasured items, etc is a very big task for me. If it is indeed at 12 and still some 1400 miles away, there is a good chance it will pass us by. On the other hand............. I rely a great deal on the comments posted here so any info would be appreciated.
Member Since: July 31, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 14
196. PakaSurvivor
6:52 PM GMT on September 20, 2011
171. Neapolitan

Interesting Report and outcome not too surprising. Individual responses listed in the report keep emergency manager and staff hoping their warnings are getting through to the masses.
Member Since: September 20, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 235
195. CaribBoy
6:50 PM GMT on September 20, 2011
Quoting JLPR2:


Glad to bring some in. I'm still watching the TVCN closely since it is the consensus of the models.

Also, in visible imagery 98L has the appearance of a TS already.


Yes 98L looks good right now and TVCN is actually showing a dangerous track for the Leewards, VI and PR as the worst conditions are often confined in the N and NE semicircles (Maria, Irene).
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5600
194. HurrikanEB
6:43 PM GMT on September 20, 2011
Quoting AussieStorm:
Dry air??? That will inhibit Roke. which is what I am wishing for.



I could be wrong, but I think that it's less of a dry air issue, than it is of a secondary eye wall developing, and that is the drier area in between the two. At least, that's what it looks like using the other TRMM images.

(That and I remember someone pointing out the same thing in and archive of Hurricane Wilma's sat. loop a couple of days ago.)

...never-the-less, either could suggest some near term weakening or inhibit intensification.
Member Since: May 2, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 1289
193. JLPR2
6:43 PM GMT on September 20, 2011
Quoting CaribBoy:
Thanks for the info JLPR2


Glad to bring some in. I'm still watching the TVCN closely since it is the consensus of the models.

Also, in visible imagery 98L has the appearance or I should say structure of a TS already.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8459
192. daddyjames
6:43 PM GMT on September 20, 2011
Quoting carcar1967:


I wonder if your little one is as much a handful as mine is. LOL


Blessed with an intelligent, confident, and all-around happy kid! An absolute joy to parent - challenging at times, but a load of fun!

(humor flag) [Know that this is "off topic" and there is obvious bias, please forgive one proud papa . . .]
Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3731
191. CaribBoy
6:42 PM GMT on September 20, 2011
Lol at the HWRF and BAMS
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5600
190. Skeptic33
6:41 PM GMT on September 20, 2011
Quoting bird72:
Dr. Master mention Africa, so I going to talk about Africa.....

Africais the world's second largest and second most populous continent, after Asia. At about 30.2 million km² (11.7 million sq mi) including adjacent islands, it covers 6% of the Earth's total surface area and 20.4% of the total land area.[2] With 1.0 billion people (as of 2009, see table) in 61 territories, it accounts for about 14.72% of the world's human population.

The continent is surrounded by the Mediterranean Sea to the north, both the Suez Canal and the Red Sea along the Sinai Peninsula to the northeast, the Indian Ocean to the southeast, and the Atlantic Ocean to the west. The continent has 54 sovereign states, including Madagascar and various island groups.

Africa, particularly central Eastern Africa, is widely regarded within the scientific community to be the origin of humans and the Hominidae clade (great apes), as evidenced by the discovery of the earliest hominids and their ancestors, as well as later ones that have been dated to around seven million years ago – including Sahelanthropus tchadensis, Australopithecus africanus, A. afarensis, Homo erectus, H. habilis and H. ergaster – with the earliest Homo sapiens (modern human) found in Ethiopia being dated to circa 200,000 years ago.[3]

Africa straddles the equator and encompasses numerous climate areas; it is the only continent to stretch from the northern temperate to southern temperate zones.[4] The African expected economic growth rate is at about 5.0% for 2010 and 5.5% in 2011.[5]



The history of Africa begins with the prehistory of Africa and the emergence of Homo sapiens in East Africa, continuing into the present as a patchwork of diverse and politically developing nation states. Agriculture began about 10,000 BCE and metallurgy in about 4000 BCE. The history of early civilization arose in Egypt and later in the Maghreb and the Horn of Africa. During the Middle Ages, Islam spread through the regions. Crossing the Maghreb and the Sahel, a major centre of Muslim culture was at Timbuktu. States and polities subsequently formed throughout the continent.

From the late 15th century, Europeans and Arabs took slaves from West, Central and Southeast Africa overseas in the African slave trade. European colonization of Africa developed rapidly in the Scramble for Africa of the late 19th and early 20th centuries. Following independence and struggles in many parts of the continent, decolonization took place after the Second World War.

Africa's history has been a challenge for researchers in the field of African studies because of the scarcity of written sources in large parts of sub-Saharan Africa. Scholarly techniques such as the recording of oral history, historical linguistics, archaeology and genetics have been crucial.



Maybe the "biblical" flooding wiped out all of the records at the end of Ice Age about 10,000-12,000 years ago? There are some clues in the bible but it's all about interpretation... Ask 100 people and you get 100 different interpretation. Seems that a lot of things came directly from Sumerians, the oldest civilization that we could find with extensive writings. I suspect that the pyramids and similar buildings all over the world may have much older than 5000 years old but who really knows for sure? Look at Sphinx, the base showed water erosion. When's the last time that region saw that much water? Was that biblical flooding?

We could only trace homo sapien's MtDNA to south Africa as the earliest point (200,000 years).

How did homo species end up with 46 chromosomes while the higher primates have 48 chromosomes but they all look remarkable similar even with 2nd and 3rd pair from higher primates being fused together in homo sapiens.

I suspect genetic testing will clear up a lot of questions. What's strange is that there is 900 years old skull with no deformity at all and the genetic testing showed it to be entirely different species. I mean 900 years old? They are going to test those famous conehead skulls from Peru. Results are expected later this year or early next year. That should be very interesting to see if they are indeed a different species that is very recent. Remember queens and kings of ancient Egypt also had similar conehead skull... Sometimes I wonder those Egypt archaeologist (Hawass?) hid something from everybody...
Member Since: March 8, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 97
189. CaribBoy
6:40 PM GMT on September 20, 2011
Quoting JLPR2:
Models don't know what to make of 98L.


Obviously.
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5600
188. CaribBoy
6:39 PM GMT on September 20, 2011
Thanks for the info JLPR2
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5600
187. JLPR2
6:38 PM GMT on September 20, 2011
Models don't know what to make of 98L.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8459
186. MississippiWx
6:34 PM GMT on September 20, 2011
I pointed out last night that 98L was having issues with competing vort centers, and I still believing it's having that issue today. However, I do believe it is much less of an issue this afternoon. The circulation that was exposed on the northern side is not the main center. There appears to be a couple of different vort maxes rotating around a common center. Once they consolidate, we'll have a TD. This is a common occurrence with monsoonal type systems.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10156
185. JLPR2
6:33 PM GMT on September 20, 2011
Also, 18z SHIPS is more optimistic with 98L, has a 57mph TS in 48hrs, at the end of the runs weakens it to 48mph.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8459
184. JLPR2
6:31 PM GMT on September 20, 2011
A stronger 98L, up 5mph, down one millibar.

AL, 98, 2011092018, , BEST, 0, 120N, 383W, 30, 1007, LO
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8459
183. carcar1967
6:26 PM GMT on September 20, 2011
Quoting daddyjames:


Got the nom-de-blog from my little one, who coincidently also just turned 5, when asked what my name was (a few years back) and responded confidently "DaddyJames, silly". :D

Happy birthday to your son!

Edited to correct misspelling: confidently


I wonder if your little one is as much a handful as mine is. LOL
Member Since: June 9, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 100
182. CRepp28
6:20 PM GMT on September 20, 2011
Quoting Neapolitan:
The National Weather Service's Central Region just released a lengthy report (PDF) on the Joplin tornado of May 22. Particularly disturbing are the notes about how many people ignored the warnings and likely paid for that ignorance with their lives. The words sound much like those of people in hurricane-prone areas who haven't been hit in a while:

"...familiarity with seasonal weather in southwest Missouri played a major role in risk perception and warning response. Most individuals commented that severe weather in southwest Missouri during spring is common; however, tornadoes never affect Joplin or themselves personally. It was common in the interviews to hear residents refer to storms always blowing over and missing Joplin, or that there seemed like there was a protective bubble around Joplin, or there is rotation all the time, but never in Joplin. One city employee stated, "don‘t think it can‘t happen in your community, because that‘s what I thought." This sense in which people believe their personal risk from a hazard is less than the risk faced by others is referred to as optimism bias and can lead to diminished perceptions of threat and influence response."

Anyway, it's a very informational report for those interested in such things.


It is sad but true. Many people believe that there is a reason for their area to never have taken a direct hit. Whether it be for geographic reasons or something else. Truth is that it is just a matter of time, and we must always take the warnings serious. After covering an F5 in Hackleberg, AL this year, I heard many who live there say they thought that area would never get a direct hit because the tornadoes always go through a little valley there, and not hit the town. 18 were killed there.
Member Since: August 26, 2011 Posts: 38 Comments: 6
181. daddyjames
6:15 PM GMT on September 20, 2011
Quoting carcar1967:


Thanks, by the way my son is named James. He turned 5 yesterday.


Got the nom-de-blog from my little one, who coincidently also just turned 5, when asked what my name was (a few years back) and responded confidently "DaddyJames, silly". :D

Happy birthday to your son!

Edited to correct misspelling: confidently
Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3731
179. hurricanehanna
6:12 PM GMT on September 20, 2011
Quoting ncstorm:
last frame 384 hours


ewe - that's just not nice
Member Since: September 5, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3480
178. carcar1967
6:10 PM GMT on September 20, 2011
Quoting daddyjames:


This is where the +/- system located on the top right portion of each post comes into play. The filter "hides" posts by individuals who have had a poor reception (more minuses) from other posters (regardless of why that may be). You can set the level at which people are displayed as indicated by post 167: will40.


Thanks, by the way my son is named James. He turned 5 yesterday.
Member Since: June 9, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 100
177. CaribBoy
6:08 PM GMT on September 20, 2011
Quoting JLPR2:
CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1500 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
REMAIN FAIRLY WELL ORGANIZED. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE A
WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME
. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM IN
THIS AREA LATER TODAY
OR ON WEDNESDAY...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

That is rather contradictory.


LOL
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5600
176. daddyjames
6:07 PM GMT on September 20, 2011
Quoting Neapolitan:
The National Weather Service's Central Region just released a lengthy report (PDF) on the Joplin tornado of May 22. Particularly disturbing are the notes about how many people ignored the warnings and likely paid for that ignorance with their lives. The words sound much like those of people in hurricane-prone areas who haven't been hit in a while:

"...familiarity with seasonal weather in southwest Missouri played a major role in risk perception and warning response. Most individuals commented that severe weather in southwest Missouri during spring is common; however, tornadoes never affect Joplin or themselves personally. It was common in the interviews to hear residents refer to storms always blowing over and missing Joplin, or that there seemed like there was a protective bubble around Joplin, or there is rotation all the time, but never in Joplin. One city employee stated, "don‘t think it can‘t happen in your community, because that‘s what I thought." This sense in which people believe their personal risk from a hazard is less than the risk faced by others is referred to as optimism bias and can lead to diminished perceptions of threat and influence response."

Anyway, it's a very informational report for those interested in such things.

Thanks Nea. Intersting, though too common.
Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3731
175. daddyjames
6:04 PM GMT on September 20, 2011
Quoting carcar1967:
I have a general blog question, home come some posts are hidden and I have click on the show button to view them while others are shown?

Thanks.


This is where the +/- system located on the top right portion of each post comes into play. The filter "hides" posts by individuals who have had a poor reception (more minuses) from other posters (regardless of why that may be). You can set the level at which people are displayed as indicated by post 167: will40.
Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3731
174. JLPR2
6:03 PM GMT on September 20, 2011
CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1500 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
REMAIN FAIRLY WELL ORGANIZED. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE A
WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME
. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM IN
THIS AREA LATER TODAY
OR ON WEDNESDAY...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

That is rather contradictory.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8459
173. SLU
6:03 PM GMT on September 20, 2011
98L has 2 centers of circulation. One near 11n 39.5w and the other at 12.5n 38w so the NHC is right in saying that it is not well defined. It appears that the south-western low is becoming more dominant with the north-eastern one starting to rotate around it in a cyclonic fashion.
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 4734
172. will40
6:02 PM GMT on September 20, 2011
Quoting carcar1967:


Thanks, That worked.



welcome
Member Since: September 19, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 4066
171. Neapolitan
6:01 PM GMT on September 20, 2011
The National Weather Service's Central Region just released a lengthy report (PDF) on the Joplin tornado of May 22. Particularly disturbing are the notes about how many people ignored the warnings and likely paid for that ignorance with their lives. The words sound much like those of people in hurricane-prone areas who haven't been hit in a while:

"...familiarity with seasonal weather in southwest Missouri played a major role in risk perception and warning response. Most individuals commented that severe weather in southwest Missouri during spring is common; however, tornadoes never affect Joplin or themselves personally. It was common in the interviews to hear residents refer to storms always blowing over and missing Joplin, or that there seemed like there was a protective bubble around Joplin, or there is rotation all the time, but never in Joplin. One city employee stated, "don‘t think it can‘t happen in your community, because that‘s what I thought." This sense in which people believe their personal risk from a hazard is less than the risk faced by others is referred to as optimism bias and can lead to diminished perceptions of threat and influence response."

Anyway, it's a very informational report for those interested in such things.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13278
170. carcar1967
6:01 PM GMT on September 20, 2011
Quoting carcar1967:


I pick "Show All" and after the refresh it back to "Show Average". ????


Thanks, That worked.
Member Since: June 9, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 100
169. will40
6:00 PM GMT on September 20, 2011
Quoting carcar1967:


I pick "Show All" and after the refresh it back to "Show Average". ????


pick show all then log out and then log back in
Member Since: September 19, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 4066
168. carcar1967
5:59 PM GMT on September 20, 2011
Quoting will40:



look at the filter right under show comments and pick show all


I pick "Show All" and after the refresh it back to "Show Average". ????
Member Since: June 9, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 100
167. will40
5:56 PM GMT on September 20, 2011
Quoting carcar1967:
I have a general blog question, home come some posts are hidden and I have click on the show button to view them while others are shown?

Thanks.



look at the filter right under show comments and pick show all
Member Since: September 19, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 4066
166. Gatorstorm
5:55 PM GMT on September 20, 2011
Are we entering a La Nina, El Nino or neutral period? Where do you find that forecast?
Member Since: June 3, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 19
165. islander101010
5:55 PM GMT on September 20, 2011
my forecast is north of the greater antillias
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4018
164. carcar1967
5:54 PM GMT on September 20, 2011
I have a general blog question, home come some posts are hidden and I have click on the show button to view them while others are shown?

Thanks.
Member Since: June 9, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 100
163. SPLbeater
5:52 PM GMT on September 20, 2011
the NHC is sick...wtf they say no defined LLC? ok Jeff masters said there is one, ASCAT says there is one....they are taking independence too far!
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
162. ScottLincoln
5:44 PM GMT on September 20, 2011
Quoting hulazigzag:
would it be reasonable to take temp readings over ten seconds out of a yearand come up with a trend? And if 10 to 15 years is the sample that is reasonable any changes to the climate in those periods would be insignificant because in the next cycle they could do a complete 180.


You are confusing two things... whether a trend is statistically significant and whether or not a trend will continue.
Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 5 Comments: 2876
161. scott39
5:35 PM GMT on September 20, 2011
Quoting Levi32:
Good morning.

Blog update:

Tropical Tidbit for Tuesday, September 20th, with Video
Good afternoon to everyone, Levi, I think 98L is moving slower than any other CV storm this season, where its located now. I also have seen a further Southern trend in the GFS and Euro, with 98L over the last few days. They do curve it, but the trend seems to be further S. Now I see the GFDL has 98L in the central Caribbean. Can we look for more of this?
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6706

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.