Arctic sea ice bottoms out near all-time low; August was Earth's 4th - 8th warmest

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 6:11 PM GMT on September 17, 2011

Share this Blog
34
+

Arctic sea ice extent hit its minimum on September 9 this year, falling to its second lowest value since satellite measurements began in 1979, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center . More than one third (35%) of the Arctic sea ice was missing this summer, compared to the 1979 - 2000 average. This is an area about the size of the Mediterranean Sea. The 2011 sea ice minimum was very close to the all-time record low set in 2007; in fact, the University of Bremen rated the 2011 loss the greatest on record. For the fourth consecutive year, and fourth time in recorded history, ice-free navigation was possible in the Arctic along the coast of Canada (the Northwest Passage), and along the coast of Russia (the Northeast Passage.) Mariners have been attempting to sail these waters since 1497.

While the record low sea ice year of 2007 was marked by a very unusual 1-in-20 year combination of weather conditions that favored ice loss (including clearer skies, favorable wind patterns, and warm temperatures), 2011's weather patterns were much closer to average. The fact we pretty much tied the record for most sea ice loss this year despite this rather ordinary weather is a result of the fact that large amounts of thicker, multi-year ice has melted or been flushed out of the Arctic since 2007. As a result of the loss of this old, thick ice, both 2010 and now 2011 set new records for the lowest volume of sea ice in the Arctic, according the University of Washington PIOMAS model. Given the very thin ice now covering most of the Arctic, we can expect truly dramatic sea ice loss the next time 1-in-10 year or 1-in-20 year warmth and sunshine invades the Arctic. We are definitely on pace to see the Arctic virtually sea ice-free in summer by 2030, as predicted by several leading Arctic sea ice scientists. I expect we'll see more than half of the Arctic ice gone and the North Pole liquid instead of solid by the summer of 2020, and probably sooner.


Figure 1. Arctic sea ice extent in 2011 (blue line) compared to the record low year of 2007 (dashed green line) and average (thick grey line.) Image credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center .

When was the last time the Arctic was this ice-free?
We can be sure the Northwest Passage was never open for ice-free navigation--particularly ice-free navigation for multiple years in a row--between 1900 and 2000, as we have detailed ice edge records from ships (Walsh and Chapman, 2001). It is very unlikely the Passage was open between 1497 and 1900, since this spanned a cold period in the northern latitudes known as "The Little Ice Age". Ships periodically attempted the Passage and were foiled during this period, and the native Inuit people have no historical tales of the Passage being navigable at any time in the past.

The Northwest passage may have been open multiple years in a row for ice-free navigation at some period during the Medieval Warm Period, between 1000 and 1300 AD. A better candidate was the period 6,000 - 8,500 years ago, when the Earth's orbital variations brought more sunlight to the Arctic in summer than at present. Funder and Kjaer (2007) found extensive systems of wave generated beach ridges along the North Greenland coast that suggested the Arctic Ocean was ice-free in the summer for over 1,000 years during that period. Prior to that, the next likely time was during the last inter-glacial period, 120,000 years ago. Arctic temperatures then were 2 - 3°C higher than present-day temperatures, and sea levels were 4-6 meters higher.

However, it is possible that the recent summer low-ice conditions in the Arctic are unprecedented for the past 800,000 years, according to a 2011 press release by Project CLAMER, a European group dedicated to climate change and European marine ecosystem research. They found that a tiny species of plankton called Neodenticula seminae that went extinct in the North Atlantic 800,000 years ago has become a resident of the Atlantic again, having drifted from the Pacific through the Arctic Ocean thanks to dramatically reduced polar ice. The 1999 discovery represents "the first evidence of a trans-Arctic migration in modern times" related to plankton, according to the UK-based Sir Alister Hardy Foundation for Ocean Science, whose researchers warn that "such a geographical shift could transform the biodiversity and functioning of the Arctic and North Atlantic marine ecosystems."

It is possible we'll have a better idea of historical ice-free conditions in the Arctic in the next few years. A new technique that examines organic compounds left behind in Arctic sediments by diatoms that live in sea ice give hope that a detailed record of sea ice extent extending back to the end of the Ice Age 12,000 years ago may be possible (Belt et al., 2007). The researchers are studying sediments along the Northwest Passage in hopes of being able to determine when the Passage was open during the past 12,000 years.

References
Belt, S.T., G. Masse, S.J. Rowland, M. Poulin, C. Michel, and B. LeBlanc, "A novel chemical fossil of palaeo sea ice: IP25", Organic Geochemistry, Volume 38, Issue 1, January 2007, Pages 16-27.

Funder, S. and K.H. Kjaer, 2007, "A sea-ice free Arctic Ocean?", Geophys. Res. Abstr. 9 (2007), p. 07815.

Walsh, J.E and W.L.Chapman, 2001, "Twentieth-century sea ice variations from observational data", Annals of Glaciology, 33, Number 1, January 2001 , pp. 444-448.

August 2011: Earth's 4th - 8th warmest on record
August 2011 was the globe's 8th warmest August on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated August the 4th warmest on record. Land temperatures during August were the 2nd warmest on record, and ocean temperatures were the 12th warmest on record. Ocean temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean's Main Development Region (MDR) for hurricanes, from the coast of Africa to the coast of Central America between 10°N and 20°N latitude, were 0.8°C above average, the 4rd warmest August on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the 6th or 3rd warmest in the 34-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). For more details on global extremes during August, see the details from weather historian Christopher C. Burt.


Figure 2. Departure of temperature from average for August 2011. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

Maria hits Newfoundland
Hurricane Maria hit Newfoundland, Canada yesterday afternoon near 3:30 pm local time as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. However, the hurricane's strongest winds were over water, and the storm brought very little in the way of strong winds or heavy rain to the island. Cape Race at the southeast tip of Newfoundland saw sustained winds of 41 mph, gusting to 54 mph at 3:30 pm Friday as the center of the storm passed. Winds in the capital of St. John's peaked at 37 mph, gusting to 46 mph, at 10:30 am local time. Maria's strike makes this Newfoundland's second consecutive year with a hurricane strike, something that has never occurred since hurricane record keeping began in 1851. Last year, Hurricane Igor killed one person on Newfoundland, and damage exceeded $100 million, making Igor the most damaging tropical cyclone in Newfoundland history.


Figure 3. Satellite image of Hurricane Maria taken at 12:15 pm EDT September 16, 2011. At the time, Maria was a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. Image credit: NOAA Environmental Visualization Lab.

Invest 97L
For the first day since August 18, we don't have a named storm in the Atlantic. However, we have a new area to watch. A tropical wave that moved off the coast of Africa Friday and is now 300 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands is moving west at 10 - 15 mph. The wave has developed a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity and spin, and has been designated Invest 97L by NHC. Wind shear as diagnosed by the SHIPS model is light, 5 - 10 knots, and is predicted to stay light to moderate through Tuesday morning. Ocean temperatures are 27.5°C, one degree above the threshold typically needed for a tropical storm to spin up. Water vapor satellite images show 97L is embedded in a moist environment.

Most of the models develop 97L into a tropical depression by Tuesday; NHC gave the disturbance a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday in their 2 pm Tropical Weather Outlook. 97L should head west or west-northwest towards the Lesser Antilles over the next six days, and could arrive in the islands as early as Friday--though most of the models predict a later arrival. It is likely 97L will encounter the usual troubles storms this year have had with wind shear and dry air on the long trek across the Atlantic.

I'll have a new post on Monday, when I'll discuss the long-range hurricane outlook for the rest of September.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 777 - 727

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29Blog Index

Flood Warning for Eastern PR.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5627
Quoting zicoille:

Yeeeeeessssssss !
ignorant little boy
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Another rainy day...
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5627
Global Warming, Naturally
Posted by: angelafritz, 5:48 PM CDT on September 16, 2011




PETM Warming vs. Current Warming

During the PETM, around 1.5 billion tons of carbon was released into the atmosphere per year. The Earth warmed around 6C (11F) over 20,000 years, although some estimates are that the warming was more like 9C (16F). Using the low end of that estimated range, the globe warmed around 0.025C every 100 years. Today, the globe is warming at least ten times as fast, anywhere from 1 to 4C every 100 years. In 2010, our fossil fuel burning released 35 billion tons of carbon into the atmosphere. By comparison, volcanoes released 0.2 billion tons of carbon per year. How fast carbon enters the atmosphere translates to the how fast temperature increases, and the environmental and societal consequences of warming at such a break-neck speed could be devastating.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
124

WHXX01 KWBC 181220

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1220 UTC SUN SEP 18 2011



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL982011) 20110918 1200 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

110918 1200 110919 0000 110919 1200 110920 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 11.0N 35.2W 11.8N 36.3W 12.5N 37.7W 13.3N 39.6W

BAMD 11.0N 35.2W 11.7N 35.9W 12.4N 36.8W 13.2N 38.0W

BAMM 11.0N 35.2W 11.6N 36.3W 12.1N 37.4W 12.7N 38.8W

LBAR 11.0N 35.2W 11.5N 35.7W 12.3N 36.9W 13.5N 38.9W

SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 37KTS 43KTS

DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 37KTS 43KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

110920 1200 110921 1200 110922 1200 110923 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 14.2N 42.2W 16.1N 48.4W 17.9N 55.6W 19.5N 62.4W

BAMD 14.2N 39.7W 16.4N 43.4W 18.0N 46.3W 18.7N 47.9W

BAMM 13.3N 40.7W 14.7N 45.3W 15.9N 50.4W 16.9N 55.3W

LBAR 15.0N 41.0W 18.7N 45.8W 22.6N 49.1W 25.5N 51.0W

SHIP 46KTS 43KTS 32KTS 27KTS

DSHP 46KTS 43KTS 32KTS 27KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 11.0N LONCUR = 35.2W DIRCUR = 20DEG SPDCUR = 3KT

LATM12 = 10.4N LONM12 = 35.2W DIRM12 = 31DEG SPDM12 = 3KT

LATM24 = 10.0N LONM24 = 35.9W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT

CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 225NM SDEPTH = M

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
818

WHXX01 KWBC 181220

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1220 UTC SUN SEP 18 2011



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL992011) 20110918 1200 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

110918 1200 110919 0000 110919 1200 110920 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 17.3N 43.9W 17.8N 46.1W 18.2N 48.2W 18.5N 50.5W

BAMD 17.3N 43.9W 17.3N 44.1W 17.2N 44.6W 17.3N 45.5W

BAMM 17.3N 43.9W 17.5N 45.0W 17.5N 46.3W 17.5N 47.9W

LBAR 17.3N 43.9W 17.5N 44.6W 18.0N 45.6W 18.7N 46.7W

SHIP 20KTS 21KTS 22KTS 23KTS

DSHP 20KTS 21KTS 22KTS 23KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

110920 1200 110921 1200 110922 1200 110923 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 18.9N 53.3W 20.2N 58.9W 21.7N 64.9W 23.8N 70.6W

BAMD 17.5N 46.7W 18.2N 49.7W 18.4N 53.4W 18.4N 57.9W

BAMM 17.7N 49.8W 18.2N 54.0W 18.6N 59.1W 19.1N 64.5W

LBAR 20.0N 48.1W 22.8N 51.4W 25.2N 54.4W 26.7N 56.8W

SHIP 24KTS 25KTS 27KTS 32KTS

DSHP 24KTS 25KTS 27KTS 32KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 17.3N LONCUR = 43.9W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 9KT

LATM12 = 17.2N LONM12 = 42.3W DIRM12 = 279DEG SPDM12 = 10KT

LATM24 = 16.8N LONM24 = 40.0W

WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 20KT

CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = S

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
XX/INV/99L
MARK NEAR
18N/41W
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting nofailsafe:
I go to bed thinking there's nothing much more to be said about 97L, and then I wake up this morning and find that it's got two new friends? What a difference 11 hours can make.

edit: It's almost as if nogaps was right-ish for a change.
You sleep too much.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
POSS.T.C.F.A.
98L/INV/XX
MARK
10.00N/36.00W
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Neapolitan:

Not just nuts, but likely a deliberate lie. There's a lot of that going around right now...

The following snippet shouldn't be overlooked, and can't possibly be downplayed as hype or exaggeration: "August 2011 marked the 318th consecutive month (since February 1985) with the average monthly global land and ocean temperature above the 20th century average." (http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2011/8)

318 straight months above average. Pretty difficult to make a case that cooling's going on with that kind of a streak, no? 318-to-0 is a bit of a blowout, if you ask me...
The 318 month above the 20th century average is nonsense for one simple reason, can anyone here figure out why?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I go to bed thinking there's nothing much more to be said about 97L, and then I wake up this morning and find that it's got two new friends? What a difference 11 hours can make.

edit: It's almost as if nogaps was right-ish for a change.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Drakoen:


It dies down but can still be present.


Ah, okay.

Do you think it will find a better environment once in the Caribbean?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31454
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


I thought that wasn't supposed to be a problem except for early and late season? Not mid-season...?


It dies down but can still be present.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2011 Storms
All Active Year


Atlantic
99L.INVEST
98L.INVEST

East Pacific

Central Pacific

West Pacific
19W.SONCA
18W.ROKE

Indian Ocean

Southern Hemisphere
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting QueensEddie:
I find it disturbing re the arctic. As in a canary is dead? And someone is telling my son in school that there is more volume of arctic ice than before. Nuts.

Not just nuts, but likely a deliberate lie. There's a lot of that going around right now...

The following snippet shouldn't be overlooked, and can't possibly be downplayed as hype or exaggeration: "August 2011 marked the 318th consecutive month (since February 1985) with the average monthly global land and ocean temperature above the 20th century average." (http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2011/8)

318 straight months above average. Pretty difficult to make a case that cooling's going on with that kind of a streak, no? 318-to-0 is a bit of a blowout, if you ask me...
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13457
Quoting Drakoen:


Shear from the subtropical jet stream over the central Atlantic.


I thought that wasn't supposed to be a problem except for early and late season? Not mid-season...?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31454
Ok 98L listen to me. Please don't give headache to forecasters like MARIA did.
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5930
I find it disturbing re the arctic. As in a canary is dead? And someone is telling my son in school that there is more volume of arctic ice than before. Nuts.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


You think it will trek through the Caribbean?

I have a question...A lot of the intensity models forsee weakening as 98L approaches the islands. What would cause that? I know that ULL is in the area, but won't it be gone by the time that the invest reaches the Islands?


Shear from the subtropical jet stream over the central Atlantic.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Errr...it's quiet...
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31454
Quoting hurricanejunky:


Yeah, the memory leaks in Firefox are the biggest issue for me. Aside from that, Firefox and Chrome are pretty comparable although I think Chrome may be a little snappier.

Tried using the 7 beta (Firefox)? Purported improvement. I'd rather not give Google, the so-called do no evil technological giant, more leverage than they already have.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:
am out for the rest of today gone river rafting


Nice! enjoy!
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5930
All eyes on CATL



LinkShortWaveLoop
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11173
Quoting TropicalWeatherGrl88:


Thank you, do you think it will be developed by that time? I would say the chances are very slim. Which is probably why the ECMWF kills it.


I think there is a good chance that it is developed by the time it reaches the islands. Most models take it up to tropical storm status by that time, and then begin to weaken it.

BTW, cool avatar.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31454
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Not if it is already developed.


Thank you, do you think it will be developed by that time? I would say the chances are very slim. Which is probably why the ECMWF kills it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
In my opinion:

Post-97L: Near 0%

98L: 30%

99L: 20%

They'll probably go ~0%, 20%, 20% though.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31454
am out for the rest of today gone river rafting
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Energy Saving bulbs price will climb due to China....

China Consolidates Grip on Rare Earths
nytimes - KEITH BRADSHER, On Thursday September 15, 2011, 7:46 pm EDT

BEIJING — In the name of fighting pollution, China has sent the price of compact fluorescent light bulbs soaring in the United States.

By closing or nationalizing dozens of the producers of rare earth metals — which are used in energy-efficient bulbs and many other green-energy products — China is temporarily shutting down most of the industry and crimping the global supply of the vital resources.......................

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
GASP!






i save you
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting jpsb:

Just to continue the discussion on Solar,

Solar is very good at heating water up to about 120-140F, I have thought about trying to build a solar heating system for the few cold days I experience here in Texas, if done properly such a system could supply hot water for showers, dishes etc. All you would really need is a lot of black water hoses, maybe a reserve water tank and a little wind mills to move water thru the system. I'm building a little wind mill to pump water out of my well for my garden, if I get that right I might work on a solar heating system too. I think it's doable now. Solar for electricity? Maybe later.

Excellent! I like your DIY style. Solar panels do indeed need to surpass 20% efficiency before being useful to us plebes in electric generation (of course, the price will be out of range for a while).
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HCW:









no need to post mode runs for 97L has 97L has been drop
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
GASP!

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31454
Quoting Skyepony:


Sorry..left out the word makes.. China makes..produces more solar panels & wind turbines than any other country. China is winning (& beating America) in economic & cutting edge tecnology terms in producing panels & turbines.

Hardly a surprise there, this goes for MANY industries involved on the manufacturing front.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Looks like 98L might want to eat 99L!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalWeatherGrl88:


Won't the tradewinds off of Honduras keep it in check, or even kill it?


Not if it is already developed.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31454
Quoting jpsb:
Well I try to stay out of politics here, but I just wish we could try capitalism here, in stead of the corny corporatism we have now.

I take it you meant "crony?" :D It's pretty corny too, admittedly. ;)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CybrTeddy:
It will be interesting to see how 98L manages to get together over the coming days.


Yes,is stuck in weak steering now.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14009
Quoting stoormfury:
i support Drakoen, in that 98L should get under the base of thw ULL to it;s north, where shear will no longer be a problem. the other ULL to it's northwest will be far gone. This will allow a strong ridge to form which will keep 98L on a west track into the caribbean.


Won't the tradewinds off of Honduras keep it in check, or even kill it?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
It will be interesting to see how 98L manages to get together over the coming days.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23568
736. HCW




Member Since: Posts: Comments:
i support Drakoen, in that 98L should get under the base of thw ULL to it;s north, where shear will no longer be a problem. the other ULL to it's northwest will be far gone. This will allow a strong ridge to form which will keep 98L on a west track into the caribbean.
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2600
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Yes, I know that, but where does it come from?


Shear in the 12Z SHIPS text would come from the 06Z GFS, which indicates:

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
seems too me if we are going too see a cat 5 are best ch of seeing a cat 5 this year is in OCT looking at the pass Wilma and Mitch where both cat 5 in oct so too me that seems too be when the best ch are
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Drakoen:
Looks like we may finally have our first true Caribbean system from 98L.


I doubt it.

This one doesn't have a decent enviorment.

In addition, strong troughing should pluck this right out of the Caribbean.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting jpsb:


Revisionist history alert

True is here

I checked your link. It cites Newsweek,Washington Times, New York Times, Time Magazine. I don't see references to scientific publications that can be confirmed or discussion of how scientific opinion has treated whatever was published. This link discusses sensationalist opinion, the kind of thing that would have helped sell newspapers and magazines to a mass audience back then.

The web site is "a project of CFACT" according to the banner at the top of the page.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Drakoen:
Looks like we may finally have our first true Caribbean system from 98L.


Why will it not follow the other storms and creep north then curve away from the conus?
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11173
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


SHIPS text indicates shear and especially shear direction as major reductions in intensity, offsetting the increase in SST.


Yes, I know that, but where does it come from?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31454
Invest 98L:




Invest 99L:

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31454
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


You think it will trek through the Caribbean?

I have a question...A lot of the intensity models forsee weakening as 98L approaches the islands. What would cause that? I know that ULL is in the area, but won't it be gone by the time that the invest reaches the Islands?


SHIPS text indicates shear and especially shear direction as major reductions in intensity, offsetting the increase in SST.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 777 - 727

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.