Hurricane Maria rushes towards Newfoundland

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:41 PM GMT on September 16, 2011

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Hurricane Maria is bearing down on Newfoundland, Canada, as a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds. The wind shear over Maria turned out to be much lower than was predicted yesterday, allowing the storm to organize into the season's third hurricane. Latest satellite imagery shows that Maria is steadily degrading, with a hole in the storm's southwest eyewall, and the cloud pattern distorted by 30 - 50 knots of wind shear. The eyewall has collapsed, as seen on recent microwave satellite imagery. Maria's very fast forward speed of 45 mph means that only locations on the right (strong) side will experience hurricane force winds. With the center of Maria expected to pass over the extreme southeast tip of Newfoundland, only a small region of the island near Cape Race will see the powerful right-front quadrant of the storm. Winds at Sagona Island on the south shore of Newfoundland were sustained at 50 mph at 7:30 am local time, but have dropped to 37 mph at 9:10 am. Winds in the capital of St. John's have been rising steadily this morning, and were sustained at 37 mph, gusting to 46 mph, at 10:30 am local time. Winds will probably reach sustained speeds of 55 - 65 mph between 1 pm and 5 pm today in St. Johns, causing considerable tree damage and power failures. Radar out of Newfoundland shows the hurricane has been dumping heavy rains over the southeastern portion of the island this morning; rainfall has been under a half inch thus far at most locations, though. Along with wind damage, heavy rains leading to flash flooding are the main threat from Maria; last year, heavy rains of up to 8 inches from Hurricane Igor caused major damage in Newfoundland. Fortunately, Maria's rains are not expected to be as heavy as Igor's. According to the Canadian Hurricane Center, rivers in eastern Newfoundland are currently at average to below average levels, which will limit the amount of flooding. Maria's storm surge will arrive when the normal astronomical tide will be going out, limiting the damage the expected 3-foot storm surge will do.

Yesterday, Maria brought a brief 8-minute period of sustained winds of tropical storm force, 39 mph, to the Bermuda airport. Bermuda picked up 0.20" of rain from Maria.


Figure 1. Radar image of Tropical Storm Maria taken at 10:13 am EDT September 15, 2011. Image credit: Bermuda Weather Service.

Newfoundland's second consecutive year with a hurricane
If Maria strikes Newfoundland as a hurricane, this will be the province's second consecutive year with a hurricane strike, something that has never occurred since hurricane record keeping began in 1851. Last year, Hurricane Igor killed one person on Newfoundland, and damage exceeded $100 million, making Igor the most damaging tropical cyclone in Newfoundland history. A summary of the impact of Igor prepared by Environment Canada put it this way:

"Hurricane Igor and its severe impacts certainly represent a rare event in Newfoundland history which has been described as the worst in memory. In statistical terms, this was effectively a 50 - 100 year event depending on how one chooses to define it. There are no hurricanes/post tropical events of this magnitude striking Newfoundland in the modern era. Hurricane Juan in Nova Scotia was the last Atlantic Canadian hurricane to cause extreme damage. Prior to the naming of hurricanes, the 1935 Newfoundland Hurricane 75 years ago was of similar intensity."


Figure 2. A ravine carved by Hurricane Igor's flood waters washed out the Trans-Canada Highway, isolating Southeast Newfoundland from the rest of the province. Image credit: CBC News.

Elsewhere in the tropics
All of the models have been sporadically predicting development of a tropical wave 5 - 7 days from now between Africa and the Lesser Antilles. The location and timing of the hypothetical storm have been inconsistent, and there is at present no signs of anything brewing. The NOGAPS model continues to predict a strong tropical disturbance or tropical depression could form in the Caribbean 6 - 7 days from now, near Jamaica. None of the other models is supporting this idea, so the NOGAPS model is probably wrong on this scenario. I'll have an update Saturday afternoon.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting dixietx77:
please help us all we have been infested with TROLLS!!


It is Friday night. There is NO school tomorrow and the trolls could not get a date. Sooooooooo, we get the trolls.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good to see you Aussie.
When do you meet the Kiwi's in the Rugby?
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Quoting pottery:
It's a very strange thing, that when a Group/Forum/Party/Movement (whatever) gets popular, it attracts people of all kinds.

The WU is no different really, and WU because of it's popularity and the fact that so many people visit here, is a Prime place for Fools and Idiots to enter and make a lot of stupid noises.

The same thing happens to Political parties and other popular movements, and in no time all the Good Minds leave, and are replaced with Fools and Idiots.

Fools and Idiots LOVE to hear themselves talk nonsense or to see themselves annoying people.

It turns them on in some way.
Simple minds.

I agree Pot. But Dr M has some of the blame with his allowing Admin to adhere to a sometimes unpredictable ban policy and the continued encouragement of this AGW crusade.
Member Since: May 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193
Quoting nymore:
A guy from australia has a much better video on KTVN TV right now it is streaming live

mind posting the link to KTVN please.
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Quoting floodzonenc:
Hey, WU friends. Seems like there's been an epidemic of gloom and doom up here lately. I know a few great people have moved on from the blog and, yes, that stinks but its still our blog.

Remember that airforce guy who joined recently? He seemed really knowledgeable. Now I don't know if he left or if he's just busy lately or lurking, but it proves that great bloggers are out there.

"Treat a man as he is and he will remain as he is. Treat a man as he can and should to be, and he will become as he can and should be." ~ Goethe

You wanna see good posts? Make good posts. Scroll past the trolls and let's enjoy one another. We have to make this blog what we want it to be. :)


very true.

Quoting pottery:
It's a very strange thing, that when a Group/Forum/Party/Movement (whatever) gets popular, it attracts people of all kinds.

The WU is no different really, and WU because of it's popularity and the fact that so many people visit here, is a Prime place for Fools and Idiots to enter and make a lot of stupid noises.

The same thing happens to Political parties and other popular movements, and in no time all the Good Minds leave, and are replaced with Fools and Idiots.

Fools and Idiots LOVE to hear themselves talk nonsense or to see themselves annoying people.

It turns them on in some way.
Simple minds.


The use of the and Ignore User function is recommended if one feels a certain handle is here to just make trouble. The more people that use the quicker they are gone, if alot of people click the same post, that person is banned.
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855. DFWjc
Quoting j2008:

Hope you guys have a much luck as we Arizonans did. 4-5 inches in the past week. Thats half our yearly rain total!!! I think we sent you all the rain, it flooded pretty bad here. One person died after he got swept down the river.....What Im saying is I hope you guys dont get to much of a good thing...


Thank you for that, and I hate to remind a certain few, but i said it before...wait until it gets cooler and the rains will come...
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Quoting AussieStorm:

I have just done a youtube search, there was a crash at the same race last year. Fortunately no one died. There was a fatal crash in 94 at the same race too.
A guy from australia has a much better video on KTVN TV right now it is streaming live
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I agree with that, Floodzone!
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Quoting floodzonenc:
Hey, WU friends. Seems like there's been an epidemic of gloom and doom up here lately. I know a few great people have moved on from the blog and, yes, that stinks but its still our blog.

Remember that airforce guy who joined recently? He seemed really knowledgeable. Now I don't know if he left or if he's just busy lately or lurking, but it proves that great bloggers are out there.

"Treat a man as he is and he will remain as he is. Treat a man as he can and should to be, and he will become as he can and should be." ~ Goethe

You wanna see good posts? Make good posts. Scroll past the trolls and let's enjoy one another. We have to make this blog what we want it to be. :)
I totally agree :) and on that note good night !
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Quoting OopsIDiditAgain:


WHen did this happen?


Grothar is far from passing on. I find it quite unpalatable to see someone make a statement that suggests true knowledge, but in reality, shows ignorance.

I feel for Grothar and those who are going to have difficulty telling the difference.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
It's a very strange thing, that when a Group/Forum/Party/Movement (whatever) gets popular, it attracts people of all kinds.

The WU is no different really, and WU because of it's popularity and the fact that so many people visit here, is a Prime place for Fools and Idiots to enter and make a lot of stupid noises.

The same thing happens to Political parties and other popular movements, and in no time all the Good Minds leave, and are replaced with Fools and Idiots.

Fools and Idiots LOVE to hear themselves talk nonsense or to see themselves annoying people.

It turns them on in some way.
Simple minds.

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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


I like knowing what happened. Same reason we watch tornado videos, tsunami videos, I love jets, so I would like to see what went wrong.

I have just done a youtube search, there was a crash at the same race last year. Fortunately no one died. There was a fatal crash in 94 at the same race too.
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Quoting will40:



not wishing you anything from a strong storm but just the rain
Thanks Will it would take a strong storm to stall out to fill my pond ... I am barely keeping the fish alive.
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845. j2008
Quoting DFWjc:


It's been raining non stop from Dallas to Ft Worth for atleast the last hour.

Hope you guys have a much luck as we Arizonans did. 4-5 inches in the past week. Thats half our yearly rain total!!! I think we sent you all the rain, it flooded pretty bad here. One person died after he got swept down the river.....What Im saying is I hope you guys dont get to much of a good thing...
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Here rkay1 is this one better for you..


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Quoting twincomanche:
Why do you want to see this?


I like knowing what happened. Same reason we watch tornado videos, tsunami videos, I love jets, so I would like to see what went wrong.
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Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
I really wish there were a separate climate blog on this site. It used to be so easy to obtain useful information about what's going on in the tropics by simply reading the latest page of comments, but whenever this climate debate gets going, you have to scroll endlessly to come across a piece of information related to the tropics.



There is. Check out the blog by user Ricky Rood.

RickyRood

Or, if extreme weather is your thing, then check out another featured blogger:

weatherhistorian

Maybe that's why people question the topics in the "main" blog. Dr Masters graciously allowed others to have featured blogs, made reference to them in his posts, trying to get others to post there.

It's his blog, allows us to post (and create our OWN blogs), without payment, if you want.

We have the tools available that allows us to rate, ignore, post WU mail, all in real time (very light moderation).

But the things that pass for humor, the trolls, the "poof" posts, the abusive name calling, and other things make some wonder if it's really worth it.

For some, it's not.
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Quoting FrankZapper:
A couple of weeks ago I received an Email from his family saying he had departed. Others got the same Email.

I got that email also, forward it and 5 others from the same handle to admin.
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Quoting DFWjc:


It's been raining non stop from Dallas to Ft Worth for atleast the last hour.



yeaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa
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Quoting DFWjc:
Hey fellow Texans? Is anyone else enjoying the downpours of rains?


I would enjoy the downpours if they were happening here is SETX. Glad you're getting some much needed rain, though.
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838. DFWjc
Quoting will40:



glad you guys are finally getting it . i doubt anyone else needs it more


It's been raining non stop from Dallas to Ft Worth for atleast the last hour.
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Quoting dixietx77:
Thanks! all my grass is dead and my trees are beyond crying for rain>



not wishing you anything from a strong storm but just the rain
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


nope can ya post it?


Link
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Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:


Nice example of a completely uniformed comment. Your basis for stating such a thing?
A couple of weeks ago I received an Email from his family saying he had departed. Others got the same Email.
Member Since: May 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193
Quoting will40:


well crosses fingers that you get the rain
Thanks! all my grass is dead and my trees are beyond crying for rain>
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832. j2008
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Sometimes, you just need to step away from the computer and calm down.

This would be one of those times for everybody who is getting frustrated right now.

With that,

Good night.

Night TA13. Anybody have damage info on Maria??
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


nope can ya post it?


i have seen it on tv but a lady stands up and blocks most of it
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Quoting AussieStorm:
My local newspaper posted a video of the crash. has anyone else seen it?


nope can ya post it?
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Quoting dixietx77:
n it is hot and dry here on the South east Gulf coast :(


well crosses fingers that you get the rain
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Quoting rkay1:
What is this for? A memorial for the blog?



I would hope not. I love this blog. I pretty much kept to myself in my own blog. My friends knew where to find me. But it's just my way to say that I don't like the way things are going. Way to much bickering. Childish games. I'm sorry if you have offense.
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Quoting dixietx77:
thanks sweetie :)



welcome dixie
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Quoting will40:



glad you guys are finally getting it . i doubt anyone else needs it more
n it is hot and dry here on the South east Texas Gulf coast :(
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Sometimes, you just need to step away from the computer and calm down.

This would be one of those times for everybody who is getting frustrated right now.

With that,

Good night.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32003
Quoting dixietx77:
ok do you think you are being very polite ? show your manners !


he is one of them please dont quote him
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Quoting FrankZapper:
I think he passed away.


Nice example of a completely uniformed comment. Your basis for stating such a thing?
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


i thought i saw where some people said they didnt see the warning page with different browsers



ok must be some confusion. i seem to always see it when visiting their site
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Quoting will40:



report and then ignore. and if anyone quotes them ignore them also
thanks sweetie :)
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816. j2008
Quoting OopsIDiditAgain:


you're probably right.
Yea it would sure be a shame to lose both of them....they unlike many on here now stuck to nonbickering and WEATHER!!!! Past few days the blog has been slow and theres never any actual talk of storms....Truely saddening..
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Quoting dixietx77:
please help us all we have been infested with TROLLS!!



report and then ignore. and if anyone quotes them ignore them also
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Quoting nymore:
54 people taken to hospital 3 dead so far
My local newspaper posted a video of the crash. has anyone else seen it?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.