Hurricane Maria rushes towards Newfoundland

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:41 PM GMT on September 16, 2011

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Hurricane Maria is bearing down on Newfoundland, Canada, as a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds. The wind shear over Maria turned out to be much lower than was predicted yesterday, allowing the storm to organize into the season's third hurricane. Latest satellite imagery shows that Maria is steadily degrading, with a hole in the storm's southwest eyewall, and the cloud pattern distorted by 30 - 50 knots of wind shear. The eyewall has collapsed, as seen on recent microwave satellite imagery. Maria's very fast forward speed of 45 mph means that only locations on the right (strong) side will experience hurricane force winds. With the center of Maria expected to pass over the extreme southeast tip of Newfoundland, only a small region of the island near Cape Race will see the powerful right-front quadrant of the storm. Winds at Sagona Island on the south shore of Newfoundland were sustained at 50 mph at 7:30 am local time, but have dropped to 37 mph at 9:10 am. Winds in the capital of St. John's have been rising steadily this morning, and were sustained at 37 mph, gusting to 46 mph, at 10:30 am local time. Winds will probably reach sustained speeds of 55 - 65 mph between 1 pm and 5 pm today in St. Johns, causing considerable tree damage and power failures. Radar out of Newfoundland shows the hurricane has been dumping heavy rains over the southeastern portion of the island this morning; rainfall has been under a half inch thus far at most locations, though. Along with wind damage, heavy rains leading to flash flooding are the main threat from Maria; last year, heavy rains of up to 8 inches from Hurricane Igor caused major damage in Newfoundland. Fortunately, Maria's rains are not expected to be as heavy as Igor's. According to the Canadian Hurricane Center, rivers in eastern Newfoundland are currently at average to below average levels, which will limit the amount of flooding. Maria's storm surge will arrive when the normal astronomical tide will be going out, limiting the damage the expected 3-foot storm surge will do.

Yesterday, Maria brought a brief 8-minute period of sustained winds of tropical storm force, 39 mph, to the Bermuda airport. Bermuda picked up 0.20" of rain from Maria.


Figure 1. Radar image of Tropical Storm Maria taken at 10:13 am EDT September 15, 2011. Image credit: Bermuda Weather Service.

Newfoundland's second consecutive year with a hurricane
If Maria strikes Newfoundland as a hurricane, this will be the province's second consecutive year with a hurricane strike, something that has never occurred since hurricane record keeping began in 1851. Last year, Hurricane Igor killed one person on Newfoundland, and damage exceeded $100 million, making Igor the most damaging tropical cyclone in Newfoundland history. A summary of the impact of Igor prepared by Environment Canada put it this way:

"Hurricane Igor and its severe impacts certainly represent a rare event in Newfoundland history which has been described as the worst in memory. In statistical terms, this was effectively a 50 - 100 year event depending on how one chooses to define it. There are no hurricanes/post tropical events of this magnitude striking Newfoundland in the modern era. Hurricane Juan in Nova Scotia was the last Atlantic Canadian hurricane to cause extreme damage. Prior to the naming of hurricanes, the 1935 Newfoundland Hurricane 75 years ago was of similar intensity."


Figure 2. A ravine carved by Hurricane Igor's flood waters washed out the Trans-Canada Highway, isolating Southeast Newfoundland from the rest of the province. Image credit: CBC News.

Elsewhere in the tropics
All of the models have been sporadically predicting development of a tropical wave 5 - 7 days from now between Africa and the Lesser Antilles. The location and timing of the hypothetical storm have been inconsistent, and there is at present no signs of anything brewing. The NOGAPS model continues to predict a strong tropical disturbance or tropical depression could form in the Caribbean 6 - 7 days from now, near Jamaica. None of the other models is supporting this idea, so the NOGAPS model is probably wrong on this scenario. I'll have an update Saturday afternoon.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting FrankZapper:
The blog is a funny farm lately. There are no real systems to talk about right now. Also many have either been banned or left. And apparently some are p to mischief by sending out bogus Emails.


Indeed, we have heard of the mails trumpeting his untimely demise, just weren't aware of the true scope of the shenanigans.

If I may: Long live our excellent Friend (and former resident living fossil), Gro!

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Nigeria wunderground stations
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909. j2008
Quoting KoritheMan:


Damage from a tropical depression? Unlikely.

I was thinking along the lines of flooding, even as unlikely as it is.
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Quoting pottery:
See you all tomorrow.
Time to turn-up a Kiln, and get some sleep.
Stay safe all.

NICE pic., Pat!


Da wiki wunder works well.


Nite Pottery
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Quoting superpete:
What a great idea to sponsor a small personal weather station there in Nigeria or the Congo? A link direct to WU with the data. It wouldn't hurt at this time of year.

Nice idea.
Can we find an interested person there?
How?

I'm out.
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Quoting j2008:

That would be very fun to watch, as long as there is no damage. We shall call them the LandDepressions near the tropics, that way like other things, we can make it sound scaryer than it actually is.


Damage from a tropical depression? Unlikely.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 556 Comments: 19960
See you all tomorrow.
Time to turn-up a Kiln, and get some sleep.
Stay safe all.

NICE pic., Pat!
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903. j2008
Quoting MikeVentrice:


Just a nice mesoscale convective system (MCS) associated with a coherent diurnal cycle of convection over Africa. These MCSs are usually short lived and form from certain topographic features in Africa such as the Guinea Highlands (west coast of Africa), Jos Plateau, and the Ethiopian Highlands. There is a convectively-coupled Kelvin wave (CCKW)currently over Africa. These waves move from west toward the east and if you look closely at looping brightness tempature images, you can see the eastward progression of cloudiness and thunderstorms. CCKWs act as convective triggers for the genesis of new African easterly waves. They also tend to amplify the MCSs during the afternoon over Africa.

Great info!!! That was very interesting, you took all the fun out of our hopes though...JK!! Seriously, great info though.
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Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


I wish the west African countries had better weather station coverage. I'd love to know how deep those lows are over land.
What a great idea to sponsor a small personal weather station there in Nigeria or the Congo? A link direct to WU with the data. It wouldn't hurt at this time of year.
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900. JLPR2
The ULL to the NE of PR found its way to the 850mb level, almost to the surface.

Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8503
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:


Grothar is a dear Friend. I got worked up when I saw some writing him off as dead.

I won't presume to speak for him, but I know that he has serious concerns about the current state of the blog.

The blog is a funny farm lately. There are no real systems to talk about right now. Also many have either been banned or left. And apparently some are p to mischief by sending out bogus Emails.
Member Since: May 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193
Quoting KoritheMan:


One of these days, I desire to actually see a tropical depression form over Africa.


I believe Tropical Storm Christine in 1973 was named a tropical cyclone over Africa... well at least in the best track data.
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Good post, Mike.
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896. j2008
For a while I thought the trolls had compleatly taken over, then I got it switched back to weather and everybody came back on!! I finally have seen the blog get back to its good ol times!! And on that note I leave you this evening..... I might be back for the update at 2am EST. Anyway, stay safe everyone.
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This image of Tropical Storm Delta was acquired by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on the Aqua satellite at 1600 UTC on November 24, 2005.

This is a list of tropical cyclones that have either made direct landfall in Western Africa and its surrounding islands or have come close to making landfall.


This list of West Africa hurricanes includes tropical cyclones which originated in the Atlantic and directly or indirectly affected the west coast of Africa or its surrounding islands, or both. Atlantic hurricanes seldom directly affect Western Africa, the Cape Verde Islands, or the Canary Islands, since westerly winds carry the storms away from land, and most Atlantic storms that move off the African coast tend to be weak.

2000-present


Tropical Depression Four to the southeast of the Cape Verde islands

August 4, 2000: The tropical wave that later became Hurricane Alberto dropped 1 inch (25 mm) of rain across Dakar, Senegal and produced winds of 40 mph off the West African coastline.
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Quoting floodzonenc:


Hooah! I did 6 years in the Army National Guard... good times! Yeah, Pott's theorem strikes true... the amount of bickering and off-topic discussion is inversely proportional to the amount of tropical activity.



Been meaning to ask you... Didn't your avatar used to lap his tongue? Hope I didn't dream that :) Good night!

It never fails....

LOL
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Quoting JLPR2:
Jeez, if the one inland where over water I would say it's a TD.



Just a nice mesoscale convective system (MCS) associated with a coherent diurnal cycle of convection over Africa. These MCSs are usually short lived and form from certain topographic features in Africa such as the Guinea Highlands (west coast of Africa), Jos Plateau, and the Ethiopian Highlands. There is a convectively-coupled Kelvin wave (CCKW)currently over Africa. These waves move from west toward the east and if you look closely at looping brightness tempature images, you can see the eastward progression of cloudiness and thunderstorms. CCKWs act as convective triggers for the genesis of new African easterly waves. They also tend to amplify the MCSs during the afternoon over Africa.
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892. JLPR2
Quoting KoritheMan:


One of these days, I desire to actually see a tropical depression form over Africa.


Well now, that would leave everyone speechless and Avila would have a reason to make a little joke in the discussion. xD
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8503
Quoting FrankZapper:
I agree with him too on the AGW thing. It's mainly unscientific types who don't get it, but do we need to have the same pointless debates daily?

Did you read Angela Fritz's blog, above?
Good stuff there.
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Quoting DFWjc:






i would re move that



that photo could end of geting you ban
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114753
Quoting FrankZapper:
I agree with him too on the AGW thing. It's mainly unscientific types who don't get it, but do we need to have the same pointless debates daily?

Good point!
But there are very often very good new points being put forward.
I tend to read them all, laugh at some, roll my eyes at some, and say 'wow' to a couple...
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wunderground Tropical Weather & Hurricanes Page
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Quoting FrankZapper:
No problem


Grothar is a dear Friend. I got worked up when I saw some writing him off as dead.

I won't presume to speak for him, but I know that he has serious concerns about the current state of the blog.

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885. j2008
Quoting KoritheMan:


One of these days, I desire to actually see a tropical depression form over Africa.

That would be very fun to watch, as long as there is no damage. We shall call them the LandDepressions near the tropics, that way like other things, we can make it sound scaryer than it actually is.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JLPR2:
Jeez, if the one inland where over water I would say it's a TD.



One of these days, I desire to actually see a tropical depression form over Africa.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 556 Comments: 19960
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:


I can state w/o equivocation, Grothar is definitely among the living.

Apologies if I came off as a hard*ss. I don't find a premature burial acceptable.

No problem
Member Since: May 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193
Night all, appreciate the blog and those who discuss weather...
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Quoting floodzonenc:
I think his username was afwxguy or something like that. He showed up around August, and I think he was a met for the air force.


Dang. I'm not a met but an army guy interested in weather. I like this site but I wish I didn't have to tune out so much nonsense.
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879. j2008
Quoting JLPR2:


GFS doesn't actually develop 97L, it develops that one and the disturbance in the CATL.
Interestiing....Is that the latest run, I should go take a look at it.
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Quoting JLPR2:
Jeez, if the one inland where over water I would say it's a TD.



I wish the west African countries had better weather station coverage. I'd love to know how deep those lows are over land.
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Quoting pottery:

I haven't been following the Bannings too much, so I dont know about that one.

And the AGW thing...
There are 2 groups.
A very large group that thinks that AGW is a threat to future well-being.
A small group that dissagrees with that.
Dr. M. is from the first group.
He is a PHD in his field.
He posts about it here because he chooses to do that on his own blog.

I agree with him, frankly.


Sorry, but as I know it, there is no Ph.D for global warming.
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Quoting pottery:

I haven't been following the Bannings too much, so I dont know about that one.

And the AGW thing...
There are 2 groups.
A very large group that thinks that AGW is a threat to future well-being.
A small group that dissagrees with that.
Dr. M. is from the first group.
He is a PHD in his field.
He posts about it here because he chooses to do that on his own blog.

I agree with him, frankly.
I agree with him too on the AGW thing. It's mainly unscientific types who don't get it, but do we need to have the same pointless debates daily?
Member Since: May 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193
875. JLPR2
Quoting j2008:
Certainly does look impressive.... future threat?? I think it possible.


GFS doesn't actually develop 97L, it develops that one and the disturbance in the CATL.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8503
To me, that crash in Reno looked liked spacial disorientation. He was inverted, then suddenly the plane looks like the pilot pulled back on the stick, thinking he was level. Just my opinion.....
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873. j2008
Quoting JLPR2:
Jeez, if the one inland where over water I would say it's a TD.

Certainly does look impressive.... future threat?? I think it possible.
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Quoting FrankZapper:
A couple of weeks ago I received an Email from his family saying he had departed. Others got the same Email.


I can state w/o equivocation, Grothar is definitely among the living.

Apologies if I came off as a hard*ss. I don't find a premature burial acceptable.

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871. JLPR2
Jeez, if the one inland where over water I would say it's a TD.

Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8503
Quoting FrankZapper:
I agree Pot. But Dr M has some of the blame with his allowing Admin to adhere to a sometimes unpredictable ban policy and the continued encouragement of this AGW crusade.

I haven't been following the Bannings too much, so I dont know about that one.

And the AGW thing...
There are 2 groups.
A very large group that thinks that AGW is a threat to future well-being.
A small group that dissagrees with that.
Dr. M. is from the first group.
He is a PHD in his field.
He posts about it here because he chooses to do that on his own blog.

I agree with him, frankly.
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Quoting AussieStorm:
My local newspaper posted a video of the crash. has anyone else seen it?


i saw one on u tube
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Quoting pottery:
Good to see you Aussie.
When do you meet the Kiwi's in the Rugby?

We'll likely meet them in the final, today we play Ireland. will be a tough game.
I'm out, going to kids party.

P.S Don't feed the trolls.
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865. j2008
Quoting DFWjc:


Thank you for that, and I hate to remind a certain few, but i said it before...wait until it gets cooler and the rains will come...
They sure will, its hopefully a sign of change that will spread across the south. Here in zona we've been sufferig like you texans have. It was one of the dryest years on record(until this week came along). You should have seen the bank of the major river here in town, at one of the major bridges you could look over and see hundreds of people standing on the river bank. That just tells you how long its been....once again I'm hopeing for the best for you texans.
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Quoting floodzonenc:
Hey, WU friends. Seems like there's been an epidemic of gloom and doom up here lately. I know a few great people have moved on from the blog and, yes, that stinks but its still our blog.

Remember that airforce guy who joined recently? He seemed really knowledgeable. Now I don't know if he left or if he's just busy lately or lurking, but it proves that great bloggers are out there.

"Treat a man as he is and he will remain as he is. Treat a man as he can and should to be, and he will become as he can and should be." ~ Goethe

You wanna see good posts? Make good posts. Scroll past the trolls and let's enjoy one another. We have to make this blog what we want it to be. :)


Who's the airforce guy? Always happy to see others who serve.
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Quoting AussieStorm:

mind posting the link to KTVN please.
google it faster
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Quoting AussieStorm:

I have just done a youtube search, there was a crash at the same race last year. Fortunately no one died. There was a fatal crash in 94 at the same race too.
the plane crashe after comeing around a pretty tight turn, i assume the other crashes where in the same area. BTW they revised the death number to 3.
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Quoting dixietx77:
please help us all we have been infested with TROLLS!!


It is Friday night. There is NO school tomorrow and the trolls could not get a date. Sooooooooo, we get the trolls.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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