Hurricane Maria rushes towards Newfoundland

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:41 PM GMT on September 16, 2011

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Hurricane Maria is bearing down on Newfoundland, Canada, as a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds. The wind shear over Maria turned out to be much lower than was predicted yesterday, allowing the storm to organize into the season's third hurricane. Latest satellite imagery shows that Maria is steadily degrading, with a hole in the storm's southwest eyewall, and the cloud pattern distorted by 30 - 50 knots of wind shear. The eyewall has collapsed, as seen on recent microwave satellite imagery. Maria's very fast forward speed of 45 mph means that only locations on the right (strong) side will experience hurricane force winds. With the center of Maria expected to pass over the extreme southeast tip of Newfoundland, only a small region of the island near Cape Race will see the powerful right-front quadrant of the storm. Winds at Sagona Island on the south shore of Newfoundland were sustained at 50 mph at 7:30 am local time, but have dropped to 37 mph at 9:10 am. Winds in the capital of St. John's have been rising steadily this morning, and were sustained at 37 mph, gusting to 46 mph, at 10:30 am local time. Winds will probably reach sustained speeds of 55 - 65 mph between 1 pm and 5 pm today in St. Johns, causing considerable tree damage and power failures. Radar out of Newfoundland shows the hurricane has been dumping heavy rains over the southeastern portion of the island this morning; rainfall has been under a half inch thus far at most locations, though. Along with wind damage, heavy rains leading to flash flooding are the main threat from Maria; last year, heavy rains of up to 8 inches from Hurricane Igor caused major damage in Newfoundland. Fortunately, Maria's rains are not expected to be as heavy as Igor's. According to the Canadian Hurricane Center, rivers in eastern Newfoundland are currently at average to below average levels, which will limit the amount of flooding. Maria's storm surge will arrive when the normal astronomical tide will be going out, limiting the damage the expected 3-foot storm surge will do.

Yesterday, Maria brought a brief 8-minute period of sustained winds of tropical storm force, 39 mph, to the Bermuda airport. Bermuda picked up 0.20" of rain from Maria.


Figure 1. Radar image of Tropical Storm Maria taken at 10:13 am EDT September 15, 2011. Image credit: Bermuda Weather Service.

Newfoundland's second consecutive year with a hurricane
If Maria strikes Newfoundland as a hurricane, this will be the province's second consecutive year with a hurricane strike, something that has never occurred since hurricane record keeping began in 1851. Last year, Hurricane Igor killed one person on Newfoundland, and damage exceeded $100 million, making Igor the most damaging tropical cyclone in Newfoundland history. A summary of the impact of Igor prepared by Environment Canada put it this way:

"Hurricane Igor and its severe impacts certainly represent a rare event in Newfoundland history which has been described as the worst in memory. In statistical terms, this was effectively a 50 - 100 year event depending on how one chooses to define it. There are no hurricanes/post tropical events of this magnitude striking Newfoundland in the modern era. Hurricane Juan in Nova Scotia was the last Atlantic Canadian hurricane to cause extreme damage. Prior to the naming of hurricanes, the 1935 Newfoundland Hurricane 75 years ago was of similar intensity."


Figure 2. A ravine carved by Hurricane Igor's flood waters washed out the Trans-Canada Highway, isolating Southeast Newfoundland from the rest of the province. Image credit: CBC News.

Elsewhere in the tropics
All of the models have been sporadically predicting development of a tropical wave 5 - 7 days from now between Africa and the Lesser Antilles. The location and timing of the hypothetical storm have been inconsistent, and there is at present no signs of anything brewing. The NOGAPS model continues to predict a strong tropical disturbance or tropical depression could form in the Caribbean 6 - 7 days from now, near Jamaica. None of the other models is supporting this idea, so the NOGAPS model is probably wrong on this scenario. I'll have an update Saturday afternoon.

Jeff Masters

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961. JLPR2
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


At 348 hours the two hurricanes are fujiwaraing


I figured if I'm up this late I might as well see how the run turns out.



If two hurricanes get so close to Florida like that JFV might have a heart attack. XD
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
Quoting JLPR2:
Ha! Due north and into PR and the Northern Lesser Antilles, after vising Venezuela and the Windward Islands.

I would need to see that happening to actually believe it.


At 348 hours the two hurricanes are fujiwaraing


I figured if I'm up this late I might as well see how the run turns out.

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Quoting FrankZapper:
I'm in Metairie, and so far so good.

Speaking of smoke, I heard they take cigarette breaks near the Mauna Loa sampling station. :(
It smells horrible here in new orleans east again!
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The GFS has been hinting in a PR hit for many of the past runs except the 18utc. run
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Quoting GrillinInTheEye:


Wow, I have one of them too..


Link

Still running real warm down here. Looking forward to cooling off some.


That's pretty slick. Where did you buy that? What brand is it?
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956. JLPR2
Ha! Due north and into PR and the Northern Lesser Antilles, after vising Venezuela and the Windward Islands.

I would need to see that happening to actually believe it.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
We in PR need to watch this invest 97 very carefully.
Quoting JLPR2:


Also, they don't seem to be poofing this time around.


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Quoting bigwes6844:
Hey Pat do u still smell that smoke out there by you too?
I'm in Metairie, and so far so good.

Speaking of smoke, I heard they take cigarette breaks near the Mauna Loa sampling station. :(
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Hey Pat do u still smell that smoke out there by you too?
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Quoting Neapolitan:
UY
Here you go: http://www.wunderground.com/blog/angelafritz/comm ent.html?entrynum=10#yourcomment.

You're welcome... ;-)
Anytime!

:)

Seriously, thanks Mr Nea
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951. JLPR2
Quoting FrankZapper:
They both poof out before reaching Antilles and were looking like fish on 18z


Also, they don't seem to be poofing this time around.

Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
950. JLPR2
Quoting FrankZapper:
They both poof out before reaching Antilles and were looking like fish on 18z


I don't like 18z runs, that's when the GFS gets too creative.

I prefer 00z and 12z runs.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
Quoting JLPR2:
GFS is setting up a nasty pattern too, a bunch of H's north of these two.
They both poof out before reaching Antilles and were looking like fish on 18z
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Quoting Patrap:


Schweet,,not as crisp as the one behind Lee,,but I'll take it.

Weather Station
Uptown, New Orleans
Elevation
20 ft
Station Select
Now

Clear
Temperature
74.5 °F


Wow, I have one of them too..


Link

Still running real warm down here. Looking forward to cooling off some.
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Quoting FrankZapper:
No, link please.

Talk about roll your eyes about some AGW talk is the attempt to explain cold snowy winters by AGW theory. The " Open Refrigerator Door" theory.

Here you go: http://www.wunderground.com/blog/angelafritz/comm ent.html?entrynum=10#yourcomment.

You're welcome... ;-)
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13805
946. DFWjc
Quoting Bielle:


Same thing happens up north when the first snows come. It is as if no one has ever driven in snow before.


Our problem is we have 6 MAJOR road projects going on here in the Metroplex....then rain hits and it's like all the bad drivers are sitting at home and thinking, "hmm i think i'll go out for a drive" LOL
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Quoting TXMegaWatt:


Where's basti11? I'd like to hear his thoughts on the Texas rain.

Driving west on Interstate 30 was a bit crazy today. People haven't seen rain around here in quite sometime. Accidents were happening left and right. I won't complain though. Rain is a good thing :)


Same thing happens up north when the first snows come. It is as if no one has ever driven in snow before.
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Quoting MikeVentrice:


This is a time-longitude plot of 200 hPa velocity potential (VP) anomalies. The blue colors, or negative VP anomalies represent upper-level divergence, or where air moves away from a focal point. The warmer colors, or positive VP anomalies represents upper level convergence, or where air comes together. This plot is an unfiltered plot, therefore it will show eastward and westward propagating waves. However, what is nice about this plot is that it does show eastward progressing anomalies in unfiltered fields, which are associated with CCKWs. This plot is actually made by a graduate student in Albany who shares advisors with me, Matt Janiga. I use these types of plots in forecasting long-range weather, however there are a ton of elder meteorologists who are not fans of these plots. It's the "new" type of thinking I guess.


New is what drives the Science forward,,thanx for taking the time to share your thoughts and expertise.

Its what makes this place special, the sharing I always say.

Nitey All.

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943. JLPR2
GFS is setting up a nasty pattern too, a bunch of H's north of these two.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
942. JLPR2
There we go.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
Up way too late. Over and out.
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Quoting Patrap:



Indeed,,the "CCKW" role is not fully understood, was my impression.



But then again making a black roux for Alligator Gumbo isnt well understood either.





This is a time-longitude plot of 200 hPa velocity potential (VP) anomalies. The blue colors, or negative VP anomalies represent upper-level divergence, or where air moves away from a focal point. The warmer colors, or positive VP anomalies represents upper level convergence, or where air comes together. This plot is an unfiltered plot, therefore it will show eastward and westward propagating waves. However, what is nice about this plot is that it does show eastward progressing anomalies in unfiltered fields, which are associated with CCKWs. This plot is actually made by a graduate student in Albany who shares advisors with me, Matt Janiga. I use these types of plots in forecasting long-range weather, however there are a ton of elder meteorologists who are not fans of these plots. It's the "new" type of thinking I guess.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MikeVentrice:


Haha I've been in college/graduate school going on 8 years now. I have better learned something more than the mystical forecasters from joint pains :) Those are the best types of forecasters though!


It's the ants...What are the ants doing?...;^)
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Quoting DFWjc:


Thank you for that, and I hate to remind a certain few, but i said it before...wait until it gets cooler and the rains will come...


Where's basti11? I'd like to hear his thoughts on the Texas rain.

Driving west on Interstate 30 was a bit crazy today. People haven't seen rain around here in quite sometime. Accidents were happening left and right. I won't complain though. Rain is a good thing :)
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Quoting Bielle:


We have come a long way since, "My knees are giving me grief. It's gonna rain today for sure."


Haha I've been in college/graduate school going on 8 years now. I have better learned something more than the mystical forecasters from joint pains :) Those are the best types of forecasters though!
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Quoting JLPR2:


Pre-Maria.


I believe you are right!
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Quoting MikeVentrice:


Those are oceanic Kelvin waves. They move much slower than atmospheric Kelvin waves (the "CCKW"). Oceanic Kelviv waves, depending if it is either an upwelling or downwelling Kelvin wave, will cool or warm the ocean surface temperatures, respectively. They are big players in transitions towards El Nina/ La Nina.



Indeed,,the "CCKW" role is not fully understood, was my impression.



But then again making a black roux for Alligator Gumbo isnt well understood either.



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MikeVentrice:


Those are oceanic Kelvin waves. They move much slower than atmospheric Kelvin waves (the "CCKW"). Oceanic Kelviv waves, depending if it is either an upwelling or downwelling Kelvin wave, will cool or warm the ocean surface temperatures, respectively. They are big players in transitions towards El Nino/ La Nina.


We have come a long way since, "My knees are giving me grief. It's gonna rain today for sure."
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Have had some heavy thunderstorms & squalls move in from the south here in Cayman the past hour or so, looking like more on the way for tonight. have a good evening everyone!
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San Antonio/Austin/Dallas are 20% POP for the next few days.
Best forecast in quite a while.
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Quoting Patrap:
A propagating Kelvin Wave in an enclosed, idealized Atlantic basin and two-layer system (the coast of Africa is the closest border following around the edge in the corner). A westward (into the perspective) wind stress in the western part of the ocean excites an internal Kelvin Wave propagating eastward, with fluid velocities in the opposite direction.

The Z-value in the graph is the height of the upper density layer.


Results are reproduced from O'Brien 1979, animation done with Matlab.
By JohnE CS, UiO.




Those are oceanic Kelvin waves. They move much slower than atmospheric Kelvin waves (the "CCKW"). Oceanic Kelviv waves, depending if it is either an upwelling or downwelling Kelvin wave, will cool or warm the ocean surface temperatures, respectively. They are big players in transitions towards El Nino/ La Nina.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KoritheMan:


They certainly can. However, it doesn't happen often.

A lot also has to do with topography. That more so than anything actually. Orographic lift, you know.


Googling back I can see a lot of floods in Nigeria that killed 10 or more people. Their population is about 140 million now. I bet there are a lot of people living in flood plains with land shortages now.

Ibadan city is hills, from 150 to 275 meters.
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Quoting Skyepony:


Right under all the stuff at the top you normally see from your browser a bar may appear saying your computer has blocked this site cause it has an invalid certificate..maybe something to click on that or something in the pop up box like options or something you can click on to tell your computer's security it's okay to go there. It's different for different set ups but I've assured several computers & an Ipod it's okay..look around, don't fear pressing buttons to see what they do.


Okay, I'm not afraid to play about. I haven't seen the Blue Screen of Death in several years. :>) Thanks for your help.
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A propagating Kelvin Wave in an enclosed, idealized Atlantic basin and two-layer system (the coast of Africa is the closest border following around the edge in the corner). A westward (into the perspective) wind stress in the western part of the ocean excites an internal Kelvin Wave propagating eastward, with fluid velocities in the opposite direction.

The Z-value in the graph is the height of the upper density layer.


Results are reproduced from O'Brien 1979, animation done with Matlab.
By JohnE CS, UiO.


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
926. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting Bielle:


And how do you do that. You can use WMail if you think it is too much for the blog. I would be grateful for the help.


Right under all the stuff at the top you normally see from your browser a bar may appear saying your computer has blocked this site cause it has an invalid certificate..maybe something to click on that or something in the pop up box like options or something you can click on to tell your computer's security it's okay to go there. It's different for different set ups but I've assured several computers & an Ipod it's okay..look around, don't fear pressing buttons to see what they do.
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Quoting superpete:
Pat..well done there!! All showing pressure and other info. How is things in NOLA this late?


Schweet,,not as crisp as the one behind Lee,,but I'll take it.

Weather Station
Uptown, New Orleans
Elevation
20 ft
Station Select
Now

Clear
Temperature
74.5 °F
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


There was one a few weeks ago in Nigeria that caused flooding that killed over 100 people. Not from a depressions but a precursor.


They certainly can. However, it doesn't happen often.

A lot also has to do with topography. That more so than anything actually. Orographic lift, you know.
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923. JLPR2
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


There was one a few weeks ago in Nigeria that caused flooding that killed over 100 people. Not from a depressions but a precursor.


Pre-Maria.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
Quoting pottery:

Nice idea.
Can we find an interested person there?
How?

I'm out.


There are limited number of weather stations/rain gauges in Africa which forecasters there use. However the data is very limited. There have been campaigns to look at these waves over Africa. First was the JET2000 campaign, however this campaign failed to observe any strong AEWs since it was help during an unfavorable intraseasonal state. However in 2006, an international programm called the African Multidiscplinary Monsoon Association (AMMA) and NASA's verision (NAMMA) launched a field campaign to look at such events. Those campaigns are the only good sources of data to look at African easterly wave variability.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Damage from a tropical depression? Unlikely.


There was one a few weeks ago in Nigeria that caused flooding that killed over 100 people. Not from a depressions but a precursor.
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920. DFWjc
Quoting SubtropicalHi:


though it only rained for just over an hour, we got 0.77, but you know what, i don't mind one bit..
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Quoting Patrap:
Nigeria wunderground stations
Pat..well done there!! All showing pressure and other info. How is things in NOLA this late?
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Quoting floodzonenc:


Hooah! I did 6 years in the Army National Guard... good times! Yeah, Pott's theorem strikes true... the amount of bickering and off-topic discussion is inversely proportional to the amount of tropical activity.



Been meaning to ask you... Didn't your avatar used to lap his tongue? Hope I didn't dream that :) Good night!


Thanks! Been in 19 years. Staying in a few more :)

I'll be on here a couple months then deploying to Afghanistan. At least I'll miss the election campaign ;)

Not sure how much I'll participate here though. At first it was really nice. Angela Fritz commented on my blog which was cool. And I won the travelmets contest and got a prize pack, which was also fun!

And going over models with Tazmanian has been fun when we do it.

But....I dunno. Seems like I need higher and higher waders to go through in here. Have to say the trolls in here are the worst I've seen on a site that I've visited.

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917. JLPR2
CATL disturbance and the wave inland just off the coast.

Where is 97L? Who knows. XD

Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
916. DFWjc
Quoting Tazmanian:




i would re move that



that photo could end of geting you ban


I thought it would be relevant....no?
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Quoting pottery:

Did you read Angela Fritz's blog, above?
Good stuff there.
No, link please.

Talk about roll your eyes about some AGW talk is the attempt to explain cold snowy winters by AGW theory. The " Open Refrigerator Door" theory.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting floodzonenc:


Gotta be validating to read your own theorem being used. You'll forgive me if I forgot Pott's 2nd theorem. It was equally universal :)

I had never heard of CCKWs until reading about it on the blog recently. Mother Nature is one fascinating, exotic lady.


Jeff emailed me about the CCKW on a post I wrote to the tropical storms emailing list. The theory behind CCKWs have existed since 1966, when Matsuno derived the shallow water model equators on a beta plane.

However many tropical meteorologists believed these waves are purely stratospheric phenomena. But since Wheeler and Kiladis (1999) developed a method to filter datasets in wavenumber and frequency, it has become easier to view CCKWs in reanalysis datasets. I have been building my dissertation on such waves and have been trying to slowly introduce the impacts of these atmospheric waves in the grand scheme of the tropics. I was surprised when Jeff asked to put the information in his blog... but it's good for the public to know of such waves. Maybe then will science advance to another level.
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Quoting pottery:

Did you read Angela Fritz's blog, above?
Good stuff there.
It is a very well-written piece. Highly recommended.
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Quoting DFWjc:
Hey fellow Texans? Is anyone else enjoying the downpours of rains?
It apparently rained 1.12 inches at the San Antonio airport. Not a drop on this side of town, but we'll take it.
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Quoting FrankZapper:
The blog is a funny farm lately. There are no real systems to talk about right now. Also many have either been banned or left. And apparently some are p to mischief by sending out bogus Emails.


Indeed, we have heard of the mails trumpeting his untimely demise, just weren't aware of the true scope of the shenanigans.

If I may: Long live our excellent Friend (and former resident living fossil), Gro!

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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