Hurricane Maria rushes towards Newfoundland

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:41 PM GMT on September 16, 2011

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Hurricane Maria is bearing down on Newfoundland, Canada, as a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds. The wind shear over Maria turned out to be much lower than was predicted yesterday, allowing the storm to organize into the season's third hurricane. Latest satellite imagery shows that Maria is steadily degrading, with a hole in the storm's southwest eyewall, and the cloud pattern distorted by 30 - 50 knots of wind shear. The eyewall has collapsed, as seen on recent microwave satellite imagery. Maria's very fast forward speed of 45 mph means that only locations on the right (strong) side will experience hurricane force winds. With the center of Maria expected to pass over the extreme southeast tip of Newfoundland, only a small region of the island near Cape Race will see the powerful right-front quadrant of the storm. Winds at Sagona Island on the south shore of Newfoundland were sustained at 50 mph at 7:30 am local time, but have dropped to 37 mph at 9:10 am. Winds in the capital of St. John's have been rising steadily this morning, and were sustained at 37 mph, gusting to 46 mph, at 10:30 am local time. Winds will probably reach sustained speeds of 55 - 65 mph between 1 pm and 5 pm today in St. Johns, causing considerable tree damage and power failures. Radar out of Newfoundland shows the hurricane has been dumping heavy rains over the southeastern portion of the island this morning; rainfall has been under a half inch thus far at most locations, though. Along with wind damage, heavy rains leading to flash flooding are the main threat from Maria; last year, heavy rains of up to 8 inches from Hurricane Igor caused major damage in Newfoundland. Fortunately, Maria's rains are not expected to be as heavy as Igor's. According to the Canadian Hurricane Center, rivers in eastern Newfoundland are currently at average to below average levels, which will limit the amount of flooding. Maria's storm surge will arrive when the normal astronomical tide will be going out, limiting the damage the expected 3-foot storm surge will do.

Yesterday, Maria brought a brief 8-minute period of sustained winds of tropical storm force, 39 mph, to the Bermuda airport. Bermuda picked up 0.20" of rain from Maria.


Figure 1. Radar image of Tropical Storm Maria taken at 10:13 am EDT September 15, 2011. Image credit: Bermuda Weather Service.

Newfoundland's second consecutive year with a hurricane
If Maria strikes Newfoundland as a hurricane, this will be the province's second consecutive year with a hurricane strike, something that has never occurred since hurricane record keeping began in 1851. Last year, Hurricane Igor killed one person on Newfoundland, and damage exceeded $100 million, making Igor the most damaging tropical cyclone in Newfoundland history. A summary of the impact of Igor prepared by Environment Canada put it this way:

"Hurricane Igor and its severe impacts certainly represent a rare event in Newfoundland history which has been described as the worst in memory. In statistical terms, this was effectively a 50 - 100 year event depending on how one chooses to define it. There are no hurricanes/post tropical events of this magnitude striking Newfoundland in the modern era. Hurricane Juan in Nova Scotia was the last Atlantic Canadian hurricane to cause extreme damage. Prior to the naming of hurricanes, the 1935 Newfoundland Hurricane 75 years ago was of similar intensity."


Figure 2. A ravine carved by Hurricane Igor's flood waters washed out the Trans-Canada Highway, isolating Southeast Newfoundland from the rest of the province. Image credit: CBC News.

Elsewhere in the tropics
All of the models have been sporadically predicting development of a tropical wave 5 - 7 days from now between Africa and the Lesser Antilles. The location and timing of the hypothetical storm have been inconsistent, and there is at present no signs of anything brewing. The NOGAPS model continues to predict a strong tropical disturbance or tropical depression could form in the Caribbean 6 - 7 days from now, near Jamaica. None of the other models is supporting this idea, so the NOGAPS model is probably wrong on this scenario. I'll have an update Saturday afternoon.

Jeff Masters

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1011. jpsb
The self righteousness that accompanies quite a few of the AGW alarmists posts is very annoying. I think the skeptic arguments can be summed up in two sentences. 1) The climate system is too complex and chaotic to fully understand. 2) The data does not indicate that the Earth is in a positive feed back warming loop. Now if anyone wishes to dispute this I am more then happy to listen. Just don't bring Big Oil, George Bush, Fox News or any of your other personal baggage into the conservation. And I won't bring in Big Government, Al Gore or MSNBC.

Telling someone they are stupid because they do not agree with you is well stupid. Not to pick on anyone but as an example a poster here wrote the following "I agree with him too on the AGW thing. It's mainly unscientific types who don't get it" Really? Talk about a demonstrably false, self righteous, stupid thing to say on a public blog.

I fully understand being passionate about ones beliefs, but one should always be capable of entertaining the thought that you just might be wrong. One of our times greatest minds Steven Hawkins, the worlds foremost expert on black holes, passionately believed and argued that information would be lost in a black hole. Most people believed him a few did not since they seemed to think that violated one of the basic laws of the universe. Hawkins argued his case for years, guess what, he was wrong. Now if the world foremost expert can be passionately wrong in his field of expertise maybe you and I can be wrong too. Just saying.

There has been a lot of discussion lately on people leaving the blog. It is the nastiness, the personal attacks and the self righteousness of a minority of the posters here that drives some folks away. Yes it is Dr Master blog and yes Dr Masters in an expert climatologist any yes Dr Master is a believer in AGW. Is Dr Master wrong about AGW? I don't know that he is, but he might be. Thus far I am unconvinced. I very much enjoy reading his opinions on the subject and just in case he might be right I have done all I personally can to reduce my carbon foot print.

I intend to post a lot more on the subject of global warming. I am not a troll, it is not settled science and I won't be (willingly) leaving this blog any time soon (knock on wood).
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Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Quoting FrankZapper:That sour puky garbagedump smell?


That would be post 1002.


+100
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1009. JLPR2
Lets see how 97L behaves during the day, made some progress at night.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8499
Quoting MidwestGuy:





go back and look at blog 123 that is all anyone knows well he left cause of all the crap


OMG!! I am shocked... He must of really been hurt, to leave. Now whoever messed with him was a Troll! How do you mess with one of, if not THE nicest people on the blog with such a great sense of humor and personality! I realy hope he comes back....
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Quoting FrankZapper:That sour puky garbagedump smell?


That would be post 1002.
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Quoting TropicalWeatherGrl88:
Who left? Grother? Levi? Those two are too strong to have annoying bloggers force them out. I do not like using the word trolls, I feel like a lot of the bloggers referred to as that were once normal bloggers that were ignored, or put down in some way. It does not give them a reason to act out, but between being ignored, and bored with the fact that there is no activity out there, they do not know how to contain themselves. If anyone knows where Grother is (if he left) please send me WUmail and let me know.





go back and look at blog 123 that is all anyone knows well he left cause of all the crap
Member Since: September 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 32
1004. JLPR2
Quoting tropicfreak:
Wonder if we will see 98L tomorrow ahead of 97L.


Lets see what happens, the GFS looses 97L, but we can see 97L has other plans.

Will be interesting to see what role 97L plays in relation to the disturbance in the CATL.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8499
the gfs has refueld the storm train and looks to be back on track in a few days
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Wonder if we will see 98L tomorrow ahead of 97L.
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6874
1000. jpsb
Quoting FrankZapper:
I agree with him too on the AGW thing. It's mainly unscientific types who don't get it, but do we need to have the same pointless debates daily?
Another Nobel Prize-winning physicist protests global warming alarmism

http://blog.nj.com/njv_paul_mulshine/2011/09/anot her_nobel_prize_winning_ph.html
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Ok whoever is sending those messages about Grothar's "death" GROW UP. That is a cruel and sick thing to wish for. Go mess around on your own blog. Keep your immaturity outside of Wunderground please, or at least outside Master's blog and the dedicated bloggers that go along with him.
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6874
Quoting traumaboyy:


Really??

Well, now that I know that....no need to go there....will stick with NOLA!!

Some parts of Paris smell of drains, but Europe as a whole? That's not my experience.
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Can anyone send me WUMAIL on the latest on Grothar?
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6874
Who left? Grother? Levi? Those two are too strong to have annoying bloggers force them out. I do not like using the word trolls, I feel like a lot of the bloggers referred to as that were once normal bloggers that were ignored, or put down in some way. It does not give them a reason to act out, but between being ignored, and bored with the fact that there is no activity out there, they do not know how to contain themselves. If anyone knows where Grother is (if he left) please send me WUmail and let me know.
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Quoting JLPR2:


Yeah.


LOL at the one heading south.


Classic BAMM.
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6874
Quoting floodzonenc:
Hey, WU friends. Seems like there's been an epidemic of gloom and doom up here lately. I know a few great people have moved on from the blog and, yes, that stinks but its still our blog.

Remember that airforce guy who joined recently? He seemed really knowledgeable. Now I don't know if he left or if he's just busy lately or lurking, but it proves that great bloggers are out there.

"Treat a man as he is and he will remain as he is. Treat a man as he can and should to be, and he will become as he can and should be." ~ Goethe

You wanna see good posts? Make good posts. Scroll past the trolls and let's enjoy one another. We have to make this blog what we want it to be. :)


Congrats JFV and others, you forced the experts off the blog so you can invade. At least you have something to do. Are you happy now?
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6874
Quoting OopsIDiditAgain:


I think the cape verde wave is going to die according to the xtrap and Lbar models


POOF!

Quoting AussieStorm:

I got that email also, forward it and 5 others from the same handle to admin.


Who passed?
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6874
Quoting pottery:

I haven't been following the Bannings too much, so I dont know about that one.

And the AGW thing...
There are 2 groups.
A very large group that thinks that AGW is a threat to future well-being.
A small group that dissagrees with that.
Dr. M. is from the first group.
He is a PHD in his field.
He posts about it here because he chooses to do that on his own blog.

I agree with him, frankly.


Yeah me too. I'm just glad that the current bickering doesn't involve me!
Member Since: August 28, 2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 2895
991. JLPR2
Quoting WoodyFL:
Some early models have an indication of a westward component.


img src="">


Yeah.


LOL at the one heading south.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8499
Quoting PrivateIdaho:


Most of Europe smells like that.


Really??

Well, now that I know that....no need to go there....will stick with NOLA!!
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Some early models have an indication of a westward component.


img src="">
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988. JLPR2
We got a 30%.



1. A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED ABOUT 325 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE
CENTER OF THE LOW THIS MORNING...AND SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15
MPH.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8499
Quoting traumaboyy:


Hiya Frank!!

You live there....Understandable.....We only get over there every couple months....We MISS it!! Definately a "One of a Kind" smell!!


Most of Europe smells like that.
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Quoting FrankZapper:
Hey trauma!

You all were too loaded to care.

There is no place you can go to escape it.I'm praying for a wind change before it reaches me.


Hiya Frank!!

You live there....Understandable.....We only get over there every couple months....We MISS it!! Definately a "One of a Kind" smell!!
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Quoting MikeVentrice:


This is a time-longitude plot of 200 hPa velocity potential (VP) anomalies. The blue colors, or negative VP anomalies represent upper-level divergence, or where air moves away from a focal point. The warmer colors, or positive VP anomalies represents upper level convergence, or where air comes together. This plot is an unfiltered plot, therefore it will show eastward and westward propagating waves. However, what is nice about this plot is that it does show eastward progressing anomalies in unfiltered fields, which are associated with CCKWs. This plot is actually made by a graduate student in Albany who shares advisors with me, Matt Janiga. I use these types of plots in forecasting long-range weather, however there are a ton of elder meteorologists who are not fans of these plots. It's the "new" type of thinking I guess.
very cool. Matt Janiga has some great model graphics on his site, especially for Africa, which is a region which typically gets very little attention meteorologically.

I see you are a fairly new poster as well, so welcome. As summer ends and hurricane season slows down, pointless bickering and trolling goes up big time, but here is still room for honest discussion, so stick around, atmospheric waves on the planetary scale are very interesting to me. Hopefully you can show us all a thing or two about what you are studying in the near future
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Quoting traumaboyy:


Was there about six weeks ago....Ol gal I took and brother's girlfriend were remarking how the smell was. I told them....yeah...but you will miss the smell when we go home!! Both have since remarked that they miss the smell and cant wait to get back!! NOLA ROCKS!!!
Hey trauma!

You all were too loaded to care.

There is no place you can go to escape it.I'm praying for a wind change before it reaches me.
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983. JLPR2
We got a land cane XD

Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8499
Quoting PrivateIdaho:


That's just Bourbon Street.


Was there about six weeks ago....Ol gal I took and brother's girlfriend were remarking how the smell was. I told them....yeah...but you will miss the smell when we go home!! Both have since remarked that they miss the smell and cant wait to get back!! NOLA ROCKS!!!
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Science is not up for a vote.
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Quoting PrivateIdaho:
How does Lee dump record rains, cause well above normal tides, and grass, growing in a marsh, is still on fire?

very odd.
It's underground, peetbog.
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Quoting PrivateIdaho:


That's just Bourbon Street.
No,this is worse. It's keeping the hookers OFF Bourbon st. They need to drop a train car of Glade on it. Even Lee couldn't put it out!
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How does Lee dump record rains, cause well above normal tides, and grass, growing in a marsh, is still on fire?

very odd.
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Quoting bigwes6844:
Yeah that darn marsh fire has came up again!


Old tires piled in a marsh and set on fire are not the same as a marsh fire.
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975. JLPR2
Quoting HuracandelCaribe:
i think is 97l that combines with that area.



Here is our potential problem.

Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8499
The run is done and so am I. This 384 hour GFS projection is so not going to happen!

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Quoting bigwes6844:
It smells horrible here in new orleans east again!


That's just Bourbon Street.
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If you follow the Lows in the first few frames it shows 3 lows consolidating in that general area an then start moving west
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Quoting FrankZapper:
That sour puky garbagedump smell?
Yeah that darn marsh fire has came up again!
Member Since: July 25, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2517
970. JLPR2
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


I've heard of him but don't know of him. Do I want to?


Nah. You're better off not knowing of him.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8499
969. JLPR2
Quoting bigwes6844:
am i crazy or do i see some rain headed to TX over near houston


At 384hrs the model shows some rain falling over Texas, but not nearly enough.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8499
i think is 97l that combines with that area.
Quoting JLPR2:


Yep, it keeps sending this area of disturbed weather to our area, it isn't 97L.


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I don't thin 97l will be that far south near Venezuela but is giving us an idea that thisone might be in a much better position at a lower latitude to affect PR
Quoting JLPR2:
Ha! Due north and into PR and the Northern Lesser Antilles, after vising Venezuela and the Windward Islands.

I would need to see that happening to actually believe it.

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Quoting bigwes6844:
It smells horrible here in new orleans east again!
That sour pukey garbagedump smell?
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Quoting JLPR2:


If two hurricanes get so close to Florida like that JFV might have a heart attack. XD


I've heard of him but don't know of him. Do I want to?
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964. JLPR2
Quoting HuracandelCaribe:
The GFS has been hinting in a PR hit for many of the past runs except the 18utc. run


Yep, it keeps sending this area of disturbed weather to our area, it isn't 97L.

Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8499
Quoting JLPR2:
Ha! Due north and into PR and the Northern Lesser Antilles, after vising Venezuela and the Windward Islands.

I would need to see that happening to actually believe it.
am i crazy or do i see some rain headed to TX over near houston
Member Since: July 25, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2517
At 372 hours it's a wishcaster's dream.
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961. JLPR2
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


At 348 hours the two hurricanes are fujiwaraing


I figured if I'm up this late I might as well see how the run turns out.



If two hurricanes get so close to Florida like that JFV might have a heart attack. XD
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8499

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.