Hurricane Maria rushes towards Newfoundland

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:41 PM GMT on September 16, 2011

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Hurricane Maria is bearing down on Newfoundland, Canada, as a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds. The wind shear over Maria turned out to be much lower than was predicted yesterday, allowing the storm to organize into the season's third hurricane. Latest satellite imagery shows that Maria is steadily degrading, with a hole in the storm's southwest eyewall, and the cloud pattern distorted by 30 - 50 knots of wind shear. The eyewall has collapsed, as seen on recent microwave satellite imagery. Maria's very fast forward speed of 45 mph means that only locations on the right (strong) side will experience hurricane force winds. With the center of Maria expected to pass over the extreme southeast tip of Newfoundland, only a small region of the island near Cape Race will see the powerful right-front quadrant of the storm. Winds at Sagona Island on the south shore of Newfoundland were sustained at 50 mph at 7:30 am local time, but have dropped to 37 mph at 9:10 am. Winds in the capital of St. John's have been rising steadily this morning, and were sustained at 37 mph, gusting to 46 mph, at 10:30 am local time. Winds will probably reach sustained speeds of 55 - 65 mph between 1 pm and 5 pm today in St. Johns, causing considerable tree damage and power failures. Radar out of Newfoundland shows the hurricane has been dumping heavy rains over the southeastern portion of the island this morning; rainfall has been under a half inch thus far at most locations, though. Along with wind damage, heavy rains leading to flash flooding are the main threat from Maria; last year, heavy rains of up to 8 inches from Hurricane Igor caused major damage in Newfoundland. Fortunately, Maria's rains are not expected to be as heavy as Igor's. According to the Canadian Hurricane Center, rivers in eastern Newfoundland are currently at average to below average levels, which will limit the amount of flooding. Maria's storm surge will arrive when the normal astronomical tide will be going out, limiting the damage the expected 3-foot storm surge will do.

Yesterday, Maria brought a brief 8-minute period of sustained winds of tropical storm force, 39 mph, to the Bermuda airport. Bermuda picked up 0.20" of rain from Maria.


Figure 1. Radar image of Tropical Storm Maria taken at 10:13 am EDT September 15, 2011. Image credit: Bermuda Weather Service.

Newfoundland's second consecutive year with a hurricane
If Maria strikes Newfoundland as a hurricane, this will be the province's second consecutive year with a hurricane strike, something that has never occurred since hurricane record keeping began in 1851. Last year, Hurricane Igor killed one person on Newfoundland, and damage exceeded $100 million, making Igor the most damaging tropical cyclone in Newfoundland history. A summary of the impact of Igor prepared by Environment Canada put it this way:

"Hurricane Igor and its severe impacts certainly represent a rare event in Newfoundland history which has been described as the worst in memory. In statistical terms, this was effectively a 50 - 100 year event depending on how one chooses to define it. There are no hurricanes/post tropical events of this magnitude striking Newfoundland in the modern era. Hurricane Juan in Nova Scotia was the last Atlantic Canadian hurricane to cause extreme damage. Prior to the naming of hurricanes, the 1935 Newfoundland Hurricane 75 years ago was of similar intensity."


Figure 2. A ravine carved by Hurricane Igor's flood waters washed out the Trans-Canada Highway, isolating Southeast Newfoundland from the rest of the province. Image credit: CBC News.

Elsewhere in the tropics
All of the models have been sporadically predicting development of a tropical wave 5 - 7 days from now between Africa and the Lesser Antilles. The location and timing of the hypothetical storm have been inconsistent, and there is at present no signs of anything brewing. The NOGAPS model continues to predict a strong tropical disturbance or tropical depression could form in the Caribbean 6 - 7 days from now, near Jamaica. None of the other models is supporting this idea, so the NOGAPS model is probably wrong on this scenario. I'll have an update Saturday afternoon.

Jeff Masters

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for what this is worth cause i ant no professor nor am i a very good scientist but i would like to think that with reasoning Dr Masters puts out this info on global warming to show us how this changes or could change our weather patterns on earth as well as we can see that it does indeed have an effect on our lives within this atmosphere and not only that but it could drastically effect the price of my Tatar tots
with that said well let it Rain Over Me


Link
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Quoting weatherh98:
orange crayon!!!!

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orange crayon!!!!
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Quoting aislinnpaps:
Good morning, everyone. It's sad to read of many favorite people leaving. Many who had so much to teach and contribute. Also sad is when the topic of Climate Change comes up, it disintegrates into politics and fighting. I think the majority of people come here for tropics and weather. There is a blog for climate change, and it is used. But Dr. Masters allows for it to be here as well if he discusses it. And then the problems begin. Climate change is a highly charged subject for many. The only solution I can see if they two topics have seperate blogs. Keep climate change in it's own blog only and tropics and weather in it's own blog only. This blog has been one of the most respected blogs on the internet, but it's getting a bad reputation and that is depressing and sad. Trolls we can live with, but the rest?

Please Dr. Masters, seperate the two topics!


Thank you.
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In April, there are indications of what the upcoming hurricane season might be like, but it is based on relatively new and sometimes inaccurate science... Yet we are all eager to listen to that. Global Warming may or may not be occurring, but there's a good chance it may, and a good chance that we are contributing to it. Is it set in stone? No... But what IS set in stone in weather? If there is a good deal of evidence that this phenomenon may have ginormous impacts on our weather and our world, why shouldn't Dr Masters write about it? Every "new" theory has proponents and detractors (see Big Bang Theory, which got it's name from a mocking critique of the science).

The important thing for any of us is to form our opinions on evidence, to the best of our ability. My concern is that because it was a politician that largely brought this topic to the forefront of our minds, that that in and of itself must, by default, make it a left vs right issue... Which I don't think it needs to be. Couple that with the fact that it's short term economic impacts would result in otherwise unnecessary capital spending by big businesses, and suddenly you have the makings of a quintessential political debate of left vs right.

I think highly of all of you, regardless of your stand on GW, and I hope that same courtesy can be afforded me.
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1056. vince1
Quoting jpsb:
Get back to me when you post something of a factual nature without the 2012 hysteria. I think you have been watching to many sci-fi flicks. I am going to write something up just for you, the world is not coming to an end of that I am certain.
(emphasis mine)

I wish I could say the same. :D
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Quoting jpsb:
The self righteousness that accompanies quite a few of the AGW alarmists posts is very annoying. I think the skeptic arguments can be summed up in two sentences. 1) The climate system is too complex and chaotic to fully understand. 2) The data does not indicate that the Earth is in a positive feed back warming loop. Now if anyone wishes to dispute this I am more then happy to listen. Just don't bring Big Oil, George Bush, Fox News or any of your other personal baggage into the conservation. And I won't bring in Big Government, Al Gore or MSNBC.

Telling someone they are stupid because they do not agree with you is well stupid. Not to pick on anyone but as an example a poster here wrote the following "I agree with him too on the AGW thing. It's mainly unscientific types who don't get it" Really? Talk about a demonstrably false, self righteous, stupid thing to say on a public blog.

I fully understand being passionate about ones beliefs, but one should always be capable of entertaining the thought that you just might be wrong. One of our times greatest minds Steven Hawkins, the worlds foremost expert on black holes, passionately believed and argued that information would be lost in a black hole. Most people believed him a few did not since they seemed to think that violated one of the basic laws of the universe. Hawkins argued his case for years, guess what, he was wrong. Now if the world foremost expert can be passionately wrong in his field of expertise maybe you and I can be wrong too. Just saying.

There has been a lot of discussion lately on people leaving the blog. It is the nastiness, the personal attacks and the self righteousness of a minority of the posters here that drives some folks away. Yes it is Dr Master blog and yes Dr Masters in an expert climatologist any yes Dr Master is a believer in AGW. Is Dr Master wrong about AGW? I don't know that he is, but he might be. Thus far I am unconvinced. I very much enjoy reading his opinions on the subject and just in case he might be right I have done all I personally can to reduce my carbon foot print.

I intend to post a lot more on the subject of global warming. I am not a troll, it is not settled science and I won't be (willingly) leaving this blog any time soon (knock on wood).


I think this a tropical weather blog! People like you have a forum for your AGW. Go over there and talk about it.

Even Doc gets it:

You'll be happy with today's post. I am sensitive to the turmoil posts like my one yesterday cause, but I thought it was good to draw attention to an important event in climate change awareness that was going on.

Jeff

*********** Original message follows: ***********
Sent by scooster67 at: 8:44 PM EDT on September 15, 2011
Jeff,

I have been following your blog for a year now. I respect your experiences and opinions you have and your weather discussions. As a lurker for a year or so before then, I recall your blog entries to always be about the tropics during the season. It is what drew me to the blog then. Lately your focus has been as much on climate change as it is on the weather.

I am sure you see the turmoil that focus is having among your loyal membership. Several of them have decided to go to other forums, while other have been banned for unbeknownst reasons. The fighting has gotten out of control and has become almost unbearable to visit.

There are a lot of people who don't want to leave because they respect your input and have developed friendships with each other, but are tired of the climate change debate.

So this is my Plea. Please give us weather junkies what we want. The Weather :)

Thanks for listening,

Scooster67
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1053. bappit
People come and go. Lot's of friction over the years. Some of the self-righteous have been major contributors to the friction. Ho-hum. As the world turns ...
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1052. vince1
Quoting greentortuloni:


THe problem is that this is not an academic issue. This is about the life and death of our planet and civilization and standard of living. The people who deny global warming do so make up reasons for thier motivations: "global conspiracy to get grant money", "conspiracy to return us all to the stone age", "liberal plot to create socialism"....

So why do they deny it? None of those reasons are true. The fat remains that a bunch of right wing wierdo liberal hating, anti scientific people are working to destroy the world for no reason.

Totalitarianism is not exclusive to any side of the political aisle (though left-wingers typically love to focus power centrally to ensure their edicts pass). Hinging the future of the planet's survival on a menial percentage drop in CO2 emissions, no matter the cost and no matter how it risks the current economy, is foolhardy. The earth will self-correct one way or another...I think both right and left can agree with the benefits that come from reducing air and water pollution, however. I can assure you that your attitude merely puts us on a path towards further conflict, the likes of which we haven't experienced since the first civil war (this is just my take on the direction of the body politic in this country, coupled with dogmas and the dire state of the economy).
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1051. jpsb
Quoting pottery:

You seem to believe that a "world without oil" will be a world without Energy.
Please dont be so utterly simplistic.

No wonder this debate goes nowhere.

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Quoting jpsb:
Actions have consequences.

Let's do a thought experiment, a what if. My physics professor loved thought experiments. Ok, what if we got rid of all oil, coal, natural gas and the nukes too. What would life be like in the 21 century? Well plastics would be gone too since they are make from petroleum as are a lot of modern fibers used in clothing. Ok, no plastics so we are all wearing cotton, wool or bear skin. Opps forget the bear skin PETA would have a fit. Well so far everything is cool with me, I mostly wear cotton anyway plus now I don't have to look at any more spandex. No more plastic means no more cell phones which is fine with me too. I kinda hate to have to give up my mostly plastic computer but I will if the times demand it. I hope I can keep my old pick up truck going because I will not be able to afford a new environmentally safe eclectic car. Wait there is no electricity anyway so who needs an electric car? And why worry about the old pick up truck when there no gas to put in it either. Damn I am liking this, no vehicle means no job I don't have to work any more! Yipee.

I will miss my scotch on the rocks at night, but since the refrigerator no longer works I am out of ice. But without a job I don't have any money for scotch. That is if anyone still delivered scotch to the local store which they don't since they can't afford the electric vehicles that no one has any electricity for anyway.

Well at least I am eating a healthy diet of fresh foods and I can still take a shower on warm sunny days with my new solar water heating system. It is a drag hand pumping water from my new water well into my new water tank but with out a job I have nothing better to do anyway. And I love the night sky as I sit with my new shotgun in my new vegetable garden every night. I wonder what the city folks are dong tonight? Oh that's right they are doing food riots at the emergency government food center. Boy am I happy I live in the country cause a country boy can survive.

And that's what a world without oil, coal, gas and nukes will be all about, survival. Where do you live?
Great thought for a different blog!
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Good morning, everyone. It's sad to read of many favorite people leaving. Many who had so much to teach and contribute. Also sad is when the topic of Climate Change comes up, it disintegrates into politics and fighting. I think the majority of people come here for tropics and weather. There is a blog for climate change, and it is used. But Dr. Masters allows for it to be here as well if he discusses it. And then the problems begin. Climate change is a highly charged subject for many. The only solution I can see if they two topics have seperate blogs. Keep climate change in it's own blog only and tropics and weather in it's own blog only. This blog has been one of the most respected blogs on the internet, but it's getting a bad reputation and that is depressing and sad. Trolls we can live with, but the rest?

Please Dr. Masters, seperate the two topics!
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1038. indianrivguy

Yeah, I missed posting the '49 storm back in August. I've been doing a bit of research myself - wondering just how many landfalling 'canes have struck PB County - and it looks to be 4 in the last 160 years: '28, '33, '47, & '49. The 1930's decade is still under review by the NHC, and judging from damage reports for the '33 storm (WPB recorded only 80 mph sustained winds), it appears likely that the '33 hurricane came ashore north of the official track and thus, might not have been a PBC landfall after all. If that's true, then there have been only 3 PBC direct hits from westerly-moving hurricanes in over 160 years, albeit all of them very strong and very large Category 4 storms.

The 1949 Hurricane

The hurricane moved ashore over the city of West Palm Beach as a strong Category 4 hurricane around 7:20 p.m. The city's airport reported calm conditions from 7:20–7:40 p.m., and peak gusts were recorded at 125 mph before the anemometer blew away. A maximum sustained wind of 153 mph was reported from the Jupiter Inlet Light station prior to the loss of that anemometer; although conditions were slightly more severe after the reading. Palm Beach, Jupiter, and Stuart experienced the most damage from the storm in south Florida; hundreds of homes, apartment buildings, stores, and warehouse buildings lost roofs and windows. In West Palm Beach, cars were overturned in the interior of a dealership as winds shattered windows. Sand and debris covered the island of Palm Beach. Heavy rainfall resulted in flooding, and water entered many homes in Palm Beach and Martin counties, and snakes and mosquitoes infested many residences. Miami received less damage, although trees and power lines were knocked down as winds reached 60 mph in the city. Radio towers were toppled in Lake Worth and Belle Glade, and three portions of the Jensen causeway near Sewall's Point were ripped away.


Interested in your opinion on this indianrivguy (as always). Good post (#1038).

PS - Tomorrow is the anniversery of the 1926 "Great Miami" Hurricane.
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I have been on here since 2005 and agree with Wial post #1002 that Dr Masters has been posting Global Warming blogs since then. Yes, GW is a very polarizing topic so please keep yor posts civil. Sometimes WU members need to take a few days or weeks off to cool down. If you feel you have had too much, take some time off and come back at a later time.
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Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
Which is the storm who drove a 2X4 into a palm tree?

1928 Okeechobee hurricane. It hit PR as a Cat 4/5.
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Allways leave the back door open
anyway should keep an eye on this for a couple of days

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT SEP 17 2011

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A CONTRAST FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE WRN CARIBBEAN IS LADEN WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM S OF
WRN CUBA NEAR 21N83W TO ERN HONDURAS/NICARAGUA NEAR 13N84W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM HONDURAS AND ACROSS WRN CUBA IS PROVIDING AN AREA OF DIFFLUENCE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WHICH
IS HELPING ENHANCE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS JUST E OF THE YUCATAN FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 86W-89W...AND E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM 11N-19N BETWEEN 77W-84W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ALSO S OF 13N BETWEEN 76W-81W ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS ACROSS COSTA RICA TO NRN COLOMBIA. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS DOMINATING THE ERN CARIBBEAN CENTERED OVER THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS. DRY AIR IS BEING WRAPPED AROUND THE WRN SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW KEEPING THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN UNDER MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POPPING UP NEAR THE LOW CENTER N OF 15N BETWEEN 62W-70W AND
AROUND THE ERN SIDE...SOME OF WHICH ARE APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. EXPECT MOIST CONDITIONS TO REMAIN OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE ERN
CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT STATIONARY...WITH A SURFACE TROUGH E OF THE ISLANDS TO MOVE WWD WHICH WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND
NRN LEEWARD ISLANDS.



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Which is the storm who drove a 2X4 into a palm tree?
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Quoting jpsb:
The self righteousness that accompanies quite a few of the AGW alarmists posts is very annoying. I think the skeptic arguments can be summed up in two sentences. 1) The climate system is too complex and chaotic to fully understand. 2) The data does not indicate that the Earth is in a positive feed back warming loop. Now if anyone wishes to dispute this I am more then happy to listen. Just don't bring Big Oil, George Bush, Fox News or any of your other personal baggage into the conservation. And I won't bring in Big Government, Al Gore or MSNBC.

Telling someone they are stupid because they do not agree with you is well stupid. Not to pick on anyone but as an example a poster here wrote the following "I agree with him too on the AGW thing. It's mainly unscientific types who don't get it" Really? Talk about a demonstrably false, self righteous, stupid thing to say on a public blog.

I fully understand being passionate about ones beliefs, but one should always be capable of entertaining the thought that you just might be wrong. One of our times greatest minds Steven Hawkins, the worlds foremost expert on black holes, passionately believed and argued that information would be lost in a black hole. Most people believed him a few did not since they seemed to think that violated one of the basic laws of the universe. Hawkins argued his case for years, guess what, he was wrong. Now if the world foremost expert can be passionately wrong in his field of expertise maybe you and I can be wrong too. Just saying.

There has been a lot of discussion lately on people leaving the blog. It is the nastiness, the personal attacks and the self righteousness of a minority of the posters here that drives some folks away. Yes it is Dr Master blog and yes Dr Masters in an expert climatologist any yes Dr Master is a believer in AGW. Is Dr Master wrong about AGW? I don't know that he is, but he might be. Thus far I am unconvinced. I very much enjoy reading his opinions on the subject and just in case he might be right I have done all I personally can to reduce my carbon foot print.

I intend to post a lot more on the subject of global warming. I am not a troll, it is not settled science and I won't be (willingly) leaving this blog any time soon (knock on wood).


Amen to that!
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This morning's discussion of 97L by Crown Weather.

Link
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Hopefully that Low over Texas will have enough instability to produce some rain for you guys

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I just love History!
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Good morning gang!

Nice reminder Mikatnight, I was looking hard at the '49 storm last night myself. In '47, we had a second storm, cat 1, a month later. The next year '48, there were two storms, cat 2 or better in the same area. In '49, a cat4 made landfall following a path through Florida as the '28 cane. The entire ecosystem was chock FULL of water.
I am working on a piece about the St. Lucie Sound, and the St. Lucie Inlet. The '49 storm holds interest because it breached the ocean dune and created a new inlet across Gilbert's Bar at Peck's lake even though there was an existing inlet, the St. Lucie, less than three miles away. The rainfall, and water slug that came out of the St. Lucie River watershed must have been something to see. Both the '47, and '49 storms tore up the lower portion of the Indian River Lagoon. We have lots of pictures at the Feed Store Museum in Stuart.
As passionate Florida pioneer historian, I study old storms pretty intensely and pay a lot of attention to Dr. Landsea's Hurricane reevaluation project.
Great Gramma said the '28 storm pushed the house off its piers and knocked a large mango tree onto the roof just after they watched the Lainhart and Potter lumberyard roof peal off intact and blow away. The house is of Dade County pine and survived with little damage, the tree was stood back up and my son became the fourth generation to climb in it to pick mangoes. :)
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1037. jpsb
Quoting trunkmonkey:
Jbsh, I spent some vacation time in Galveston, right after Hurrican Ike, stayed at a church, highest point in galveston, 37.3 ft above sea level, power got shower water from a tanker, 65 degree water, what fun, went t barrier islands, man it was jacked up!
Question, how long did it take to get I45 ALL CLeaned up?
Three to four weeks as I recall, Galveston causeway was shut down for a long time. The city is mostly recovered but I still see a lot of dead trees when I go there. FYI I live in Galveston county not the city of Galveston.
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1036. WxLogic
Good Morning...

Carib. starting to moisten up:



Another interesting obs is that P27L is interacting with the ULL over PR and 850MB VORT has been increasing and extending down to the SFC.







but I would have to say that land interaction would limit either any tropical characteristics from being acquired by the ULL or further development of P27L, unless P27L weak circulation can relocate further N or S of the Islands.
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doubt if the cv disturbances amount to much the western carib. got my attention although
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1034. Xandra
Quoting Grothar:

Goodbye everyone. It has been nice.

Grothar, one of my favorite songs especially for you,

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1033. HCW
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT SEP 17 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE
SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW IS POSSIBLE DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT ...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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Jbsh, I spent some vacation time in Galveston, right after Hurrican Ike, stayed at a church, highest point in galveston, 37.3 ft above sea level, power got shower water from a tanker, 65 degree water, what fun, went t barrier islands, man it was jacked up!
Question, how long did it take to get I45 ALL CLeaned up?
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1030. jpsb
Quoting seafarer459:
@ 1024

You got a lot of nerve, posting something tropical ;)
Yeah what's up with that? Kidding, here in Galveston the cane season is pretty much over. Northers coming in now, just wish they would bring some rain with them. This drought is almost as bad as a hurricane.

Sometimes we do get a tropical system in the fall here, but not very often.
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1029. KBH
Quiet in the tropics, but having the 3rd stright day of heavy rains in Barbados
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1028. jpsb
Quoting trunkmonkey:
We see water getting warmed by magma at volcanoes worldwide, like Taal andRuapehu.

Causes of Global warming!
Two things,

It is unknown (mostly) what is going on at the bottom of an ocean.

It is (very) hard to know the mean temperature of an ocean to .5 C

I'll just add that large volcanic events are quite common on Planet Earth, I am hoping we don't see one anytime soon.
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Quoting MoltenIce:
What storm is that?
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@ 1024

You got a lot of nerve, posting something tropical ;)
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1025. jpsb
Quoting FrankZapper:

For you jpsb.

"Mercedes Benz" By Janis Joplin

Oh Lord, won't you buy me a Mercedes Benz ?
Lol, one of my favorites!
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Good Morning All,

Yesterday I posted about the anniversery of the 1928 Okeechobee Hurricane (#932).

Today is the anniversery of the 1947 Hurricane ("George")...


One of only five hurricanes to strike the United States with maximum sustained winds of at least 155 mph, the storm made landfall September 17 just north of Boca Raton as a strong Category 4 hurricane. It was unusually large, with winds of hurricane force extending out roughly 120 miles from the center in all directions. The cyclone produced sustained winds of 122 mph at the Hillsboro Inlet Light near Pompano Beach, and was the highest measured wind speed recorded in the state of Florida until Hurricane Andrew. An 11-foot storm surge was reported along the Florida coast and large stretches of State Highway A1A between Palm Beach and Boynton Beach were washed out. At Lake Okeechobee a 20 foot storm surge was reported along the south shore between Clewiston and Moore Haven, nearly overrunning the Herbert Hoover Dike. Unlike in the '28 Okeechobee Hurricane, the dike held, but still prompted further strengthening in the 1960's. Flooding was among the worst in southern Florida's history, as the storm was slow-moving (about 10 mph), which resulted in rainfall records being set in many areas - some of which still stand today. The hurricane killed 17 people in Florida.



A view of Royal Palm Way in Palm Beach after the 1947 hurricane, which was at least as strong as the ‘28 storm, or slightly stronger. It packed winds of 155 mph and hit just south of Palm Beach.
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1023. jpsb
Quoting greentortuloni:


THe problem is that this is not an academic issue. This is about the life and death of our planet and civilization and standard of living. The people who deny global warming do so make up reasons for thier motivations: "global conspiracy to get grant money", "conspiracy to return us all to the stone age", "liberal plot to create socialism"....

So why do they deny it? None of those reasons are true. The fat remains that a bunch of right wing wierdo liberal hating, anti scientific people are working to destroy the world for no reason.
Get back to me when you post something of a factual nature without the 2012 hysteria. I think you have been watching to many sci-fi flicks. I am going to write something up just for you, the world is not coming to an end of that I am certain.
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Since we regularly get questions about this type of thing, I wanted to repost this excellent post from Erik Klemetti's blog 'Eruptions.'

"I recently read a post about how humans couldn't be to blame for the warming of the oceans.
The "logic" of their post was this:

We see water getting warmed by magma at volcanoes worldwide, like Taal andRuapehu.
The bottom of the ocean is covered in volcanoes, whether it be seamounts or the mid-ocean ridge system.
Volcanoes at the bottom of the ocean must heat up the ocean water (like in crater lakes), so humans aren't to blame.

There are a number of ways to attack this poor reasoning, but I'll try to go with the ones I think are most convincing.

This argument suggests that volcanic activity (not just volcanoes) on the ocean floor must be increasing over the last few hundred years. We see no evidence of this - and the author of the post only uses evidence that we have discovered more volcanoes (up to 3.4 million) on the seafloor.
The author claims "that 3,477,403 number, coming from two well-respected oceanographers, does reinforce my point rather nicely, namely, that underwater volcanoes are heating the seas." Sure, there might be a lot of volcanoes but he makes no mention of how many might be active enough to heat the ocean water. We can see at surface volcanoes that not all of them are erupting or puffing away simultaneously - why would undersea volcanoes be different? Additionally, of those 3.4 million 'volcanoes' he cites from a 2007 study, how many were considered active?
Finally, you would expect in this situation that ocean water would warm from the bottom (near the volcanoes) upwards, but it is actually the surface waters that are warming, not the deep ocean. This suggests that heating is coming from exchange with the atmosphere, not from some deep source on the ocean floor.

It is very easy to try to throw around some partially baked ideas about volcanism to try to explain the changing in the ocean temperature worldwide, but they would require extraordinary circumstances where ocean volcanic activity was increasing exactly when human carbon dioxide production was also increasing. Sorry, the subsurface volcanoes are no source for your ocean heating (and if I had the time, I'd calculate how much energy would take to heat all the oceans by 0.5C - it is bound to be more than you can get out of a few hundred thousand

Causes of Global warming!
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1021. jpsb
Quoting FrankZapper:
...... I believe in AGW theory for the most part
...... I think a lot of anti-AGWers are lacking in a understanding of weather, climate, and even basic science.
.......Many anti-AGWers also are followers of Beck, Limbaugh, Perry (a creationist) and other benefactors of their beliefs,i.e. big oil.
........I equally am very wary of the AGW proponents, Gore and other liberal Hollywood celebrities who push the AGW agenda and who I never trust.Many are idiots.
......... I try and get my info from the numerous reputable scientific sites that study CC/GW.

This AGW thing is turning into a modern day scientific feud when it should not. I wish PBS or Discovery or NatGeo would start airing series to educate public on this before it is too late.
You are certainly entitled to your opinion, I respectfully disagree.
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To go further with comments, I love this blog, but I get a sour taste in my throat when the subject of Global warming is posted.
I've noticed over the years the bashing of Republicans in here, with no retribution, but it seems when there is a bash or negative comment about any Democrat, that person is banned.
Or given a warning.
I do see a need for some control of craziness of some post, some threatning, porn, hate, etc,
but just being at odds, and get banned, is like the
SS of the 1930's.
Just be responsible of postings.
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For you jpsb.

"Mercedes Benz" By Janis Joplin

Oh Lord, won't you buy me a Mercedes Benz ?
My friends all drive Porsches, I must make amends.
Worked hard all my lifetime, no help from my friends,
So Lord, won't you buy me a Mercedes Benz ?

Oh Lord, won't you buy me a color TV ?
Dialing For Dollars is trying to find me.
I wait for delivery each day until three,
So oh Lord, won't you buy me a color TV ?

Oh Lord, won't you buy me a night on the town ?
I'm counting on you, Lord, please don't let me down.
Prove that you love me and buy the next round,
Oh Lord, won't you buy me a night on the town ?
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1018. jpsb
Actions have consequences.

Let's do a thought experiment, a what if. My physics professor loved thought experiments. Ok, what if we got rid of all oil, coal, natural gas and the nukes too. What would life be like in the 21 century? Well plastics would be gone too since they are make from petroleum as are a lot of modern fibers used in clothing. Ok, no plastics so we are all wearing cotton, wool or bear skin. Opps forget the bear skin PETA would have a fit. Well so far everything is cool with me, I mostly wear cotton anyway plus now I don't have to look at any more spandex. No more plastic means no more cell phones which is fine with me too. I kinda hate to have to give up my mostly plastic computer but I will if the times demand it. I hope I can keep my old pick up truck going because I will not be able to afford a new environmentally safe eclectic car. Wait there is no electricity anyway so who needs an electric car? And why worry about the old pick up truck when there no gas to put in it either. Damn I am liking this, no vehicle means no job I don't have to work any more! Yipee.

I will miss my scotch on the rocks at night, but since the refrigerator no longer works I am out of ice. But without a job I don't have any money for scotch. That is if anyone still delivered scotch to the local store which they don't since they can't afford the electric vehicles that no one has any electricity for anyway.

Well at least I am eating a healthy diet of fresh foods and I can still take a shower on warm sunny days with my new solar water heating system. It is a drag hand pumping water from my new water well into my new water tank but with out a job I have nothing better to do anyway. And I love the night sky as I sit with my new shotgun in my new vegetable garden every night. I wonder what the city folks are dong tonight? Oh that's right they are doing food riots at the emergency government food center. Boy am I happy I live in the country cause a country boy can survive.

And that's what a world without oil, coal, gas and nukes will be all about, survival. Where do you live?
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Quoting traumaboyy:
Who would ever want to leave a pleasant and respectful place like this?? Thanks for the laughs Grothar!!


G-man -

You need to contact me.

Have I ever steered you wrong?

Check your mail...
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1015. nymore
Quoting greentortuloni:


THe problem is that this is not an academic issue. This is about the life and death of our planet and civilization and standard of living. The people who deny global warming do so make up reasons for thier motivations: "global conspiracy to get grant money", "conspiracy to return us all to the stone age", "liberal plot to create socialism"....

So why do they deny it? None of those reasons are true. The fat remains that a bunch of right wing wierdo liberal hating, anti scientific people are working to destroy the world for no reason.
Well at least you used facts to make your point and did not resort to name calling. HAHAHAHAHA
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Who would ever want to leave a pleasant and respectful place like this?? Thanks for the laughs Grothar!!
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...... I believe in AGW theory for the most part
...... I think a lot of anti-AGWers are lacking in a understanding of weather, climate, and even basic science.
.......Many anti-AGWers also are followers of Beck, Limbaugh, Perry (a creationist) and other benefactors of their beliefs,i.e. big oil.
........I equally am very wary of the AGW proponents, Gore and other liberal Hollywood celebrities who push the AGW agenda and who I never trust.Many are idiots.
......... I try and get my info from the numerous reputable scientific sites that study CC/GW.

This AGW thing is turning into a modern day scientific feud when it should not. I wish PBS or Discovery or NatGeo would start airing series to educate public on this before it is too late.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1011. jpsb
The self righteousness that accompanies quite a few of the AGW alarmists posts is very annoying. I think the skeptic arguments can be summed up in two sentences. 1) The climate system is too complex and chaotic to fully understand. 2) The data does not indicate that the Earth is in a positive feed back warming loop. Now if anyone wishes to dispute this I am more then happy to listen. Just don't bring Big Oil, George Bush, Fox News or any of your other personal baggage into the conservation. And I won't bring in Big Government, Al Gore or MSNBC.

Telling someone they are stupid because they do not agree with you is well stupid. Not to pick on anyone but as an example a poster here wrote the following "I agree with him too on the AGW thing. It's mainly unscientific types who don't get it" Really? Talk about a demonstrably false, self righteous, stupid thing to say on a public blog.

I fully understand being passionate about ones beliefs, but one should always be capable of entertaining the thought that you just might be wrong. One of our times greatest minds Steven Hawkins, the worlds foremost expert on black holes, passionately believed and argued that information would be lost in a black hole. Most people believed him a few did not since they seemed to think that violated one of the basic laws of the universe. Hawkins argued his case for years, guess what, he was wrong. Now if the world foremost expert can be passionately wrong in his field of expertise maybe you and I can be wrong too. Just saying.

There has been a lot of discussion lately on people leaving the blog. It is the nastiness, the personal attacks and the self righteousness of a minority of the posters here that drives some folks away. Yes it is Dr Master blog and yes Dr Masters in an expert climatologist any yes Dr Master is a believer in AGW. Is Dr Master wrong about AGW? I don't know that he is, but he might be. Thus far I am unconvinced. I very much enjoy reading his opinions on the subject and just in case he might be right I have done all I personally can to reduce my carbon foot print.

I intend to post a lot more on the subject of global warming. I am not a troll, it is not settled science and I won't be (willingly) leaving this blog any time soon (knock on wood).
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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