Hurricane Maria rushes towards Newfoundland

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:41 PM GMT on September 16, 2011

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Hurricane Maria is bearing down on Newfoundland, Canada, as a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds. The wind shear over Maria turned out to be much lower than was predicted yesterday, allowing the storm to organize into the season's third hurricane. Latest satellite imagery shows that Maria is steadily degrading, with a hole in the storm's southwest eyewall, and the cloud pattern distorted by 30 - 50 knots of wind shear. The eyewall has collapsed, as seen on recent microwave satellite imagery. Maria's very fast forward speed of 45 mph means that only locations on the right (strong) side will experience hurricane force winds. With the center of Maria expected to pass over the extreme southeast tip of Newfoundland, only a small region of the island near Cape Race will see the powerful right-front quadrant of the storm. Winds at Sagona Island on the south shore of Newfoundland were sustained at 50 mph at 7:30 am local time, but have dropped to 37 mph at 9:10 am. Winds in the capital of St. John's have been rising steadily this morning, and were sustained at 37 mph, gusting to 46 mph, at 10:30 am local time. Winds will probably reach sustained speeds of 55 - 65 mph between 1 pm and 5 pm today in St. Johns, causing considerable tree damage and power failures. Radar out of Newfoundland shows the hurricane has been dumping heavy rains over the southeastern portion of the island this morning; rainfall has been under a half inch thus far at most locations, though. Along with wind damage, heavy rains leading to flash flooding are the main threat from Maria; last year, heavy rains of up to 8 inches from Hurricane Igor caused major damage in Newfoundland. Fortunately, Maria's rains are not expected to be as heavy as Igor's. According to the Canadian Hurricane Center, rivers in eastern Newfoundland are currently at average to below average levels, which will limit the amount of flooding. Maria's storm surge will arrive when the normal astronomical tide will be going out, limiting the damage the expected 3-foot storm surge will do.

Yesterday, Maria brought a brief 8-minute period of sustained winds of tropical storm force, 39 mph, to the Bermuda airport. Bermuda picked up 0.20" of rain from Maria.


Figure 1. Radar image of Tropical Storm Maria taken at 10:13 am EDT September 15, 2011. Image credit: Bermuda Weather Service.

Newfoundland's second consecutive year with a hurricane
If Maria strikes Newfoundland as a hurricane, this will be the province's second consecutive year with a hurricane strike, something that has never occurred since hurricane record keeping began in 1851. Last year, Hurricane Igor killed one person on Newfoundland, and damage exceeded $100 million, making Igor the most damaging tropical cyclone in Newfoundland history. A summary of the impact of Igor prepared by Environment Canada put it this way:

"Hurricane Igor and its severe impacts certainly represent a rare event in Newfoundland history which has been described as the worst in memory. In statistical terms, this was effectively a 50 - 100 year event depending on how one chooses to define it. There are no hurricanes/post tropical events of this magnitude striking Newfoundland in the modern era. Hurricane Juan in Nova Scotia was the last Atlantic Canadian hurricane to cause extreme damage. Prior to the naming of hurricanes, the 1935 Newfoundland Hurricane 75 years ago was of similar intensity."


Figure 2. A ravine carved by Hurricane Igor's flood waters washed out the Trans-Canada Highway, isolating Southeast Newfoundland from the rest of the province. Image credit: CBC News.

Elsewhere in the tropics
All of the models have been sporadically predicting development of a tropical wave 5 - 7 days from now between Africa and the Lesser Antilles. The location and timing of the hypothetical storm have been inconsistent, and there is at present no signs of anything brewing. The NOGAPS model continues to predict a strong tropical disturbance or tropical depression could form in the Caribbean 6 - 7 days from now, near Jamaica. None of the other models is supporting this idea, so the NOGAPS model is probably wrong on this scenario. I'll have an update Saturday afternoon.

Jeff Masters

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1161. txjac
Quoting scooster67:
Nice blob of rain moving into Texas. I hope it rains like crazy for y'all in its path.




Been watching that myself this morning scoots ...coming in from the west. Hoping that it doesnt rain out as it moves this way ..fingers crossed!
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...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW S OF THE AZORES
ISLANDS NEAR 34N33W IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WHICH HAS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING ALONG 32N33W TO 30N41W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150
NM SE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. EXPECT THE SURFACE TROUGH IN THE WRN ATLC TO SLOWLY DRIFT WEST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS-06
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE
$$
WALTON


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1159. txjac
Quoting PensacolaDoug:


Some form of "Eco-Socialism" is what you seem to be advocating here. I agree that de-forestation is a problem. But what do we do about it? Order the governments of places like Indonesia and Brazil and others to stop cutting down there forests? How do we do that? At gunpoint? What about individuals here in the US who own lumber producing tracts of land? They can no longer sell their timber? What's your home made of?



While we cant and shouldnt dictate to other countries, however we can lead by example. We should be planting and replacing the trees that are being cut down.
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Nice blob of rain moving into Texas. I hope it rains like crazy for y'all in its path.

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More rain for us here in PR,where is not needed.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1012 AM AST SAT SEP 17 2011

.UPDATE...POTENTIALLY ACTIVE AFTERNOON AS TUTT AND ITS SFC
REFLECTION CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST WITH INCREASING FORCING TO
GENERATE STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.
LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CU FIELD STARTING TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE CORDILLERA WHERE NAM12 SHOWS BEST SFC CONVERGENCE PER NEGATIVE
VALUES IN ITS SFC DIVERGENCE FIELD. BETTER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY TODAY THAN YESTERDAY SO CONVECTION SHOULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD.
0-6 KM WINDS ARE MORE FROM THE EAST TODAY SUGGESTING CONVECTION
WILL MOVE TO WRN PR AS OPPOSED TO THE SOUTHWEST LIKE IT DID
YESTERDAY. SOME TSTMS ACROSS THE ATLC COASTAL WATERS HAVE HAD
OVERSHOOTING TOPS INDICATIVE OF HOW UNSTABLE AIR MASS ALREADY IS.
MID-LVL TEMPS ARE SIMILAR TO YDAY SO THREAT FOR HAIL AND DOWNBURST
WINDS STILL THERE. CURR FCST HAS GOOD HANDLE ON EXPECTED WX. NO
PLANS TO UPDATE FCST ATTM.

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Quoting JRRP:


Yep, that looks like La Nina. Fun times will be had by all.
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Quoting txjac:


Sitting here in Texas and am so jealous of Florida ...never thought I'd see the day that I'd be jealous of a state ...lol


My daughter and I thought of you Texans last night and wished we could have sent some of the deluge your way...
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Morning Aqua and other friends!

Aqua, glad you're not in a flood plain! That's a lot of water coming down!
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1152. txjac
Quoting pvbeachbum:


Thanks for the explanation Skye - I was wondering why it jsut didn't quit! Here in Ponte Vedra Beach in NEFL I truly thought the sky was falling and that we would flood out - our barrier island floods pretty easily in many places. My street was well over the curbs, and it flooded up onto my porch.


Sitting here in Texas and am so jealous of Florida ...never thought I'd see the day that I'd be jealous of a state ...lol
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1151. Ineluki
Wow, you guys are now arguing about arguing about AGW?

Never was the phrase "let it go" more appropriate.
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Quoting Skyepony:
Aqua~ That's amazing how a few mesocyclones kept wandering back & forth over the same area. A rare quasi-steady-state HP (High Precipitation) super cell. They last for several hours maintaining themselves instead of raining them selves out like regular thunderstorms. Even wilder is the shape of the precip totals.. it's shaped like those standing waves all over in nature, like those clouds that are shaped like horse heads. The name escapes me..I started thinking of them when I was too young as Sky-ponies & that always stuck.


Thanks for the explanation Skye - I was wondering why it jsut didn't quit! Here in Ponte Vedra Beach in NEFL I truly thought the sky was falling and that we would flood out - our barrier island floods pretty easily in many places. My street was well over the curbs, and it flooded up onto my porch.
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1149. JRRP
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Average:

11-3-1

2011:

14-3-2
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Very consistent for 126 h! Could be interesting come Friday.? Say around 15n 50w?


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1145. Skyepony (Mod)
Aqua~ You've probably seen the worse but a couple more inches may fall. I give the coast best chance for rain.


19W SONCA~ Is something to see at the moment.. should just pass east of Japan. About where all those strong earthquakes were lastnight...



Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 172 Comments: 38111
Good Morning All.

Invest 97L made some progress last night with organizing its convection into more of a ball. However, it still isn't very deep. I agree with the National Hurricane Center giving the invest a 30% chance of developing within the next 48 hours.

There is a good chance it eventually becomes a tropical storm, but shear should increase in a few days, similar to Maria.
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Quoting greentortuloni:


THe problem is that this is not an academic issue. This is about the life and death of our planet and civilization and standard of living. The people who deny global warming do so make up reasons for thier motivations: "global conspiracy to get grant money", "conspiracy to return us all to the stone age", "liberal plot to create socialism"....

So why do they deny it? None of those reasons are true. The fat remains that a bunch of right wing wierdo liberal hating, anti scientific people are working to destroy the world for no reason.


I don't believe that they're trying to destroy the world. The destruction of the environment is a by-product of unfettered greed, Capitalism gone wild. It's all about the money all the time and making the absolute highest amounts of profit without regard for public safety or the environment.

I personally think that de-forestation is as big a problem as any other that we face. Imagine if we could return to forestation levels of say 200 years ago. I don't think pollution would be as urgent a concern if we still had all of the c02 absorbers we had back then.
Member Since: August 28, 2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 2899
1142. Patrap
A excellent product for easy at a Glance Basin info.

SRCC Imagery Viewer
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Quoting mikatnight:


I'm only refering to landfalling hurricanes (westerly-moving) whose center made a direct hit on PB County. I can only find four.

Maps for the '28 storm with the revised track (Re-Analysis 2010) are available on my photo page.

Hurricane Isbell of 1964 had almost the exact same track as Wilma. Same month, a little stronger, I was six at the time. Went right over us.
For Florida you better count plenty more than land falling hurricanes. Storms that land in Florida and cross it, can maintain their category strength even if they are category three or four. If a storm hits FL and they exit out the other side, the other side may not get the storm surge but it can still get the wind and the rain, which can still cause millions of dollars of damage even on the other side of FL.
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future mischief?
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Quoting islander101010:
might be something alot sooner than that between the stalled out front the sheared tw moving into the windwds something could spring up quick


I was just talking specifically about the NW Caribb however, your correct. It's eerily quiet for Sept 17th, IMO. I don't look for the lull to last too much longer, seems Mom Nature is reloading ATM.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5449
might piss off a few characters sorry groth but there should be a age limit to flying they are up there we are down here letting a 70 yr in a air show is downright stupid ive hung up my surfboards pretty much 55 plus there should be a age they need to hand in their wings
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1137. ncstorm
Quoting Chapelhill:


What time should we be over? ;). I agree with your thoughts on a home grown system.


I am heading to the fish market in a few minutes so around 2'ish :) I hope they have some mussels there too..those are hard to come by lately for some reason..but yeah, our area especially has been having model support lately from the EURO, GFS, CMC and NOGAPS for a potential home grown storm..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15656
{{{Oakland}}}

Yes, we have been through a lot.... I'm very thankful for my WU friends. Many of you guys were my life saver during the darkest days...
Hard to believe that has been almost 6 years & I have survived...

Sunshine & cooler weather here, nice breeze out of the north. Love this time of year on the coast!
Quoting oakland:


Could still use some more rain this way but I'm thankful for what I've had.

Foxxy lady- good to see you're still around too. Some of us have been through a lot together.....
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Quoting ProgressivePulse:


Morning All.

Persistent troughing that has, for the most part, protected the East Coast to date ends up biting you in the butt come late season should the pattern persist.


ECMWF is indicating a broad area of low pressure developing in the NW Caribbean. However, 240 hours out is way beyond anything I would consider reliable. Something to consider no doubt though.
might be something alot sooner than that between the stalled out front the sheared tw moving into the windwds something could spring up quick
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Great to read your discussion! I lived in palm Beach County from 1961 to 1996...There's so much history there...I followed the weather all the time and eventually worked at the PBI airport station for a number of years with the NWS. Now I live in Port Charlotte...miss the clear water and cool ocean breezes ...spent a lot of time at Jupiter light and Dubois Camp...




Quoting indianrivguy:
Thanks Weather Nerd.. I "captured" the image.

Mik'
The Jensen Causeway was wooden in '49, that is why it took so much damage. Not long ago we featured a photo collection about the damage the '49 storm caused at Stuart Feed Store Museum. One of our Board members comes from a boat building family and had some great shots of wrecked boats, buildings and dock in the Manatee Pocket.

You have missed a LOT of storms that affected Palm Beach county. A portion of my family had just left service at Jupiter Light, trying to make their way to Lake Worth via the "sawgrass route" and were caught in a sawgrass swamp by the 1873 cane that was VERY similar to Wilma.. even to the point of pulling down a cool front behind it. Uncle Charlie said after taking shelter under the 12ft tender "Fly" hauled up on a gator crawl all night they awoke to a calm NW breeze with clear robin's egg blue skies. He could hardly believe that just a few hours before the storm was raging at over a hundred miles per hour. Charlie says the "vortex" or eye passed over them so either the storm had a bigger eye than supposed, or it's track was a little further south than recorded. An aside, the 1873 storm pulled a cold front down as I said, but it brought a frost to Nawlins' which was having a mosquito borne epidemic. The frost ended it for that year.
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Quoting ncstorm:
Good Morning Everyone

Cloudy day here in NC today..plan on cooking some Spots, Shrimp and Grits today and hogging out..I still say the next development will be home grown..the CMC still calls for development off the east coast next week..


What time should we be over? ;). I agree with your thoughts on a home grown system.
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Quoting islander101010:
palm beach florida south has a bad history for major landfall storms for the rest of this season the sw part of fl. would seem to be more likely spot for a landfaller


Morning All.

Persistent troughing that has, for the most part, protected the East Coast to date ends up biting you in the butt come late season should the pattern persist.


ECMWF is indicating a broad area of low pressure developing in the NW Caribbean. However, 240 hours out is way beyond anything I would consider reliable. Something to consider no doubt though.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5449
1114 indianrivguy -

Thanks! Gonna shoot you an email...
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.... Oops, pulled out my old Halloween Costume! hehehe
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lived in jacksonville for a yr hyde park and loved it right on the little golf course they've cleaned that town up not a drop of rain here yet
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1128. oakland
Quoting Beachfoxx:
Skye - I am still shaking my head in disbelief at the rainfall totals. Incredile.......


Could still use some more rain this way but I'm thankful for what I've had.

Foxxy lady- good to see you're still around too. Some of us have been through a lot together.....
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{{{Aqua}}}

Stay safe today! Hopefully we are going to take the fiberglass out and enjoy these cooler temps....
Quoting aquak9:
skye- do you really think we're gonna see that same kinda pattern here again today?
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1126. ncstorm
Good Morning Everyone

Cloudy day here in NC today..plan on cooking some Spots, Shrimp and Grits today and hogging out..I still say the next development will be home grown..the CMC still calls for development off the east coast next week..I havent had a chance to look at the other models yet
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15656
Quoting Skyepony:
Aqua~ That's amazing how a few mesocyclones kept wandering back & forth over the same area. A rare quasi-steady-state HP (High Precipitation) super cell. They last for several hours maintaining themselves instead of raining them selves out like regular thunderstorms. Even wilder is the shape of the precip totals.. it's shaped like those standing waves all over in nature, like those clouds that are shaped like horse heads. The name escapes me..I started thinking of them when I was too young as Sky-ponies & that always stuck.
WOW :)
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1124. jpsb
.
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1123. LargoFl
Quoting HCW:
TY for posting this
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Skye - I am still shaking my head in disbelief at the rainfall totals. Incredile.......
Quoting Skyepony:
Aqua~ That's amazing how a few mesocyclones kept wandering back & forth over the same area. A rare quasi-steady-state HP (High Precipitation) super cell. They last for several hours maintaining themselves instead of raining them selves out like regular thunderstorms. Even wilder is the shape of the precip totals.. it's shaped like those standing waves all over in nature, like those clouds that are shaped like horse heads. The name escapes me..I started thinking of them when I was too young as Sky-ponies & that always stuck.
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1121. aquak9
skye- do you really think we're gonna see that same kinda pattern here again today?
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Quoting Skyepony:
Aqua~ That's amazing how a few mesocyclones kept wandering back & forth over the same area. A rare quasi-steady-state HP (High Precipitation) super cell. They last for several hours maintaining themselves instead of raining them selves out like regular thunderstorms. Even wilder is the shape of the precip totals.. it's shaped like those standing waves all over in nature, like those clouds that are shaped like horse heads. The name escapes me..I started thinking of them when I was too young as Sky-ponies & that always stuck.


I'm not exactly sure why, but that is one of the most facinating posts I've ever read...
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Oakland - my WUBASistah!

I'm reading back - trying to determine what the heck is going on... I agree 100%. Grothar is a nice man!



Quoting oakland:


All I can say to this is- Grothar was a nice man who had some wonderful contributions to this blog and WU in general. To come back this morning to learn he has left is a sad thing. Also, I searched his blog and tried to leave him a WUmail. The result- His blog entries have been removed and he has refused to accept WUmail.

Whoever or whatever happened yesterday must have been pretty horrific to drive him completely away.

It's a very sad commentary for the state of this blog.

Okay, I'm getting off my soapbox now and I'm sure I'll have derogatory comments about what I've said but that's okay.
You have my support WuBrother.
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1118. Patrap
WP182011 - Tropical Storm ROKE

Okinawa is spared by the latest track as we have over 20,000 US Military there.




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1117. Skyepony (Mod)
Aqua~ That's amazing how a few mesocyclones kept wandering back & forth over the same area. A rare quasi-steady-state HP (High Precipitation) super cell. They last for several hours maintaining themselves instead of raining them selves out like regular thunderstorms. Even wilder is the shape of the precip totals.. it's shaped like those standing waves all over in nature, like those clouds that are shaped like horse heads. The name escapes me..I started thinking of them when I was too young as Sky-ponies & that always stuck.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 172 Comments: 38111
Woof, Woof --- Water Doggie loves water! LOL
Quoting aquak9:


oh basti...you KNOW you will always have a sweet spot in my heart. Forever. :)

islander- I am NOT begging for it to stop. Geez. It was overwhelming, yes. But BRING IT ON. I'd grow gills and webbed feet and LIVE in the water and rain if I could.
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1115. Patrap
Morn irg,, be safe and well
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Mornin' Aqua, Skye Pat !

Mik, I'd love to get together and chat history up, meantime, Ill start putting a folder together of things that may interest you. I have links to some great resources and online publications and a ton of unpublished stuff i have transcribed. My Gramps had to travel 165 miles EACH way to the nearest trading post, which was John Joiners place at Sand point.. now Titusville, by small sailboat all through the 1870's. The 1878 trip took two months and involved two hurricanes.

wellll, I must get moving towards work, y'all have a great day and don't let the global warming issue wreck any friendships... :)
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1113. Patrap
GOES-13 GOM view

click image for loop





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Quoting Patrap:
Phunny stuff from Phunny folks always brings a crooked smile.

Cake anyone?
It's always nice here in the mornings when beach, skye, Aqua, and the other WuSisters are chatting. I have 5 sisters and it makes me feel.........Blueberry Muffins :)

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1111. Patrap
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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