Hurricane Maria rushes towards Newfoundland

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:41 PM GMT on September 16, 2011

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Hurricane Maria is bearing down on Newfoundland, Canada, as a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds. The wind shear over Maria turned out to be much lower than was predicted yesterday, allowing the storm to organize into the season's third hurricane. Latest satellite imagery shows that Maria is steadily degrading, with a hole in the storm's southwest eyewall, and the cloud pattern distorted by 30 - 50 knots of wind shear. The eyewall has collapsed, as seen on recent microwave satellite imagery. Maria's very fast forward speed of 45 mph means that only locations on the right (strong) side will experience hurricane force winds. With the center of Maria expected to pass over the extreme southeast tip of Newfoundland, only a small region of the island near Cape Race will see the powerful right-front quadrant of the storm. Winds at Sagona Island on the south shore of Newfoundland were sustained at 50 mph at 7:30 am local time, but have dropped to 37 mph at 9:10 am. Winds in the capital of St. John's have been rising steadily this morning, and were sustained at 37 mph, gusting to 46 mph, at 10:30 am local time. Winds will probably reach sustained speeds of 55 - 65 mph between 1 pm and 5 pm today in St. Johns, causing considerable tree damage and power failures. Radar out of Newfoundland shows the hurricane has been dumping heavy rains over the southeastern portion of the island this morning; rainfall has been under a half inch thus far at most locations, though. Along with wind damage, heavy rains leading to flash flooding are the main threat from Maria; last year, heavy rains of up to 8 inches from Hurricane Igor caused major damage in Newfoundland. Fortunately, Maria's rains are not expected to be as heavy as Igor's. According to the Canadian Hurricane Center, rivers in eastern Newfoundland are currently at average to below average levels, which will limit the amount of flooding. Maria's storm surge will arrive when the normal astronomical tide will be going out, limiting the damage the expected 3-foot storm surge will do.

Yesterday, Maria brought a brief 8-minute period of sustained winds of tropical storm force, 39 mph, to the Bermuda airport. Bermuda picked up 0.20" of rain from Maria.


Figure 1. Radar image of Tropical Storm Maria taken at 10:13 am EDT September 15, 2011. Image credit: Bermuda Weather Service.

Newfoundland's second consecutive year with a hurricane
If Maria strikes Newfoundland as a hurricane, this will be the province's second consecutive year with a hurricane strike, something that has never occurred since hurricane record keeping began in 1851. Last year, Hurricane Igor killed one person on Newfoundland, and damage exceeded $100 million, making Igor the most damaging tropical cyclone in Newfoundland history. A summary of the impact of Igor prepared by Environment Canada put it this way:

"Hurricane Igor and its severe impacts certainly represent a rare event in Newfoundland history which has been described as the worst in memory. In statistical terms, this was effectively a 50 - 100 year event depending on how one chooses to define it. There are no hurricanes/post tropical events of this magnitude striking Newfoundland in the modern era. Hurricane Juan in Nova Scotia was the last Atlantic Canadian hurricane to cause extreme damage. Prior to the naming of hurricanes, the 1935 Newfoundland Hurricane 75 years ago was of similar intensity."


Figure 2. A ravine carved by Hurricane Igor's flood waters washed out the Trans-Canada Highway, isolating Southeast Newfoundland from the rest of the province. Image credit: CBC News.

Elsewhere in the tropics
All of the models have been sporadically predicting development of a tropical wave 5 - 7 days from now between Africa and the Lesser Antilles. The location and timing of the hypothetical storm have been inconsistent, and there is at present no signs of anything brewing. The NOGAPS model continues to predict a strong tropical disturbance or tropical depression could form in the Caribbean 6 - 7 days from now, near Jamaica. None of the other models is supporting this idea, so the NOGAPS model is probably wrong on this scenario. I'll have an update Saturday afternoon.

Jeff Masters

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161. 996tt
Haha, a lively debate would be better than this. Dang, so is hurricane season over or what. I have a feeling that perhaps Yucatan might still get some action, but not us. Check back next week.
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12z CMC



round two for NF?


and then another storm off of NC



round three for NF??
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15144
There is more to life than this blog. Although it is very useful during the season and should stay close to the topic when serious threats are out there, some people take it absolutely way to serious.

Did anyone watch the LSU - Ms St. game last night. That was classic SEC football.
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page3comment135 was written and posted before I saw Grothar's comment.
Sorry to see you leaving :-( If you can't be dissuaded, have a VERY wonderful life.
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Quoting MississippiWx:
I've been very inactive here for the past week or so. What the heck is going on? I've stepped in for a post or two, but what's with people leaving? Before I make statements, I'd like to know the story.
I've missed a couple of days last week and this week, so all I can say is we appear to be losing our long time friends!
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Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Afternoon All, surprisingly quiet for the middle of September...

Not complaining one bit however. Looking forward to the approaching cool down here in SEFL, it's been dog hot this year.
Still waiting for the cool down here in South Central Texas, maybe in October? Our 10 day outlook is still Hot which is very unusual for this time in Sept. Normally we have cooled down already, next week we have a 10 percent chance of rain all week, today and Saturday less than 20 percent.
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Quoting Xyrus2000:


This is the problem. You are talking about opinions on either side of a "belief".

Dr. M is not discussing the moral relativism of different theological perspectives. He is discussing science.

Climate science is not a religion. It is science. Just like meteorology, astronomy, hydrology, chemistry, or any other branch of science. It is conclusions and results backed up by experiments, research, and data. In this case lots of experiments, research, and data.

People can choose to accept the research, or not to. Just like people can chose to not accept thermodynamics or gravity. However, if someone does not have solid evidence to back up their refutation, then their view has no scientific merit.

Dr. M's posts in regards to climate reference the research and data to validate what he is saying. His views are backed by the research of the scientific community at large. It is not his "belief" or his "opinion". He is not imagining or making things up just to suit himself. It is scientific fact.

If someone can demonstrate why the science is wrong and provide research or reference research that backs up their claims, then and only then can a scientific debate take place. Anything else is, as you put it, "opinion and belief" which has absolutely NOTHING to do with discussing the science and generally detracts from the blog.


+10000000 I wish more people thought like you...this post was incredibly insightful and puts things into the absolute proper perspective. Thanks Xyrus!
Member Since: August 28, 2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 2895
I've been very inactive here for the past week or so. What the heck is going on? I've stepped in for a post or two, but what's with people leaving? Before I make statements, I'd like to know the story.
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Quoting Skyepony:


Looking at the different models phase analysis they are undecided with cmc & ECMWF leaning a little warmer cored.

Looking only at the one you posted (gfs) Looks oppisate with a cold start & a warm end as it approaches Scotland area.


With La Nina back & so much open ocean where there should be ocean, we may start off with another upside down winter..where the polar vortex can't stay in place slinging weekly cold snaps way too far south..


Great analysis! Thanks
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15144
149. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting falloch:
W coast of Scotland calling: are we going to get tail end of Maria next weekend, or will it be further north? We've got the annual village beer festival next week, and it's always nice to be able to imbibe outside :-)


Gfs brings you the remains, really nails ya with the storm that may form off NC in a few days.

I'll side with the cmc~ kinda think it may go more north of ya. Look out for something coming off NC though.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37822
Quoting Grothar:

"I will speak ill of no man, and speak all the good I know of everybody."

I leave you with this: Be careful of what you wish for.....


Goodbye everyone. It has been nice.


Gro, I lurked here for a long time and enjoyed your contributions. Sorry to see you go and I send you every good wish. You've been one of the best here imho.
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Quoting Grothar:

"I will speak ill of no man, and speak all the good I know of everybody."

I leave you with this: Be careful of what you wish for.....


Goodbye everyone. It has been nice.


this is sad!
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Quoting TampaSpin:
Many Bloggers left yesterday with all the bickering going on about Global Warming. When Dr. Masters opens up discussion about GW.......this is always the result. Don't know why the door is opened and then slammed shut on people for posting their opinion on either side of belief. Now the door is completely shut after opening the door yesterday.


This is the problem. You are talking about opinions on either side of a "belief".

Dr. M is not discussing the moral relativism of different theological perspectives. He is discussing science.

Climate science is not a religion. It is science. Just like meteorology, astronomy, hydrology, chemistry, or any other branch of science. It is conclusions and results backed up by experiments, research, and data. In this case lots of experiments, research, and data.

People can choose to accept the research, or not to. Just like people can chose to not accept thermodynamics or gravity. However, if someone does not have solid evidence to back up their refutation, then their view has no scientific merit.

Dr. M's posts in regards to climate reference the research and data to validate what he is saying. His views are backed by the research of the scientific community at large. It is not his "belief" or his "opinion". He is not imagining or making things up just to suit himself. It is scientific fact.

If someone can demonstrate why the science is wrong and provide research or reference research that backs up their claims, then and only then can a scientific debate take place. Anything else is, as you put it, "opinion and belief" which has absolutely NOTHING to do with discussing the science and generally detracts from the blog.
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Quoting Grothar:

"I will speak ill of no man, and speak all the good I know of everybody."

I leave you with this: Be careful of what you wish for.....


Goodbye everyone. It has been nice.
Ok now what? I didn't hear anyone anounce "Abandon Ship!" If leadership jumps ship what left for those of us that joined to be taught by you????
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Maybe Grothar has some personal issues to where he can't blog anymore. He is an old man you know.. Grothar is strong enough to handle a little insanity on the blog. Hope all is well with you Gro, take it easy.
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If anybody doesn't agree with the way Dr. Masters handles HIS BLOG, there are plenty of other blogs out there. I find it extremely disrespectful for those who have the nerve to say negative things in his own blog.
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Grothar
If you leave, you will be sadly missed by many. Perhaps the recent insanity on the blog got to you, but be assured there are plenty of good people still here, including lurkers like me, who appreciated you.
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Sorry to see you go Grothar...you will be missed! Keep in touch tho Gro!
Member Since: August 28, 2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 2895
Please don't GrO.

Link
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138. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting ncstorm:
storm off the east coast..I wouldnt be surprise if this turns into our first noreaster..

GFS 12Z 54 Hours



69 Hours


75 Hours


Looking at the different models phase analysis they are undecided with cmc & ECMWF leaning a little warmer cored.

Looking only at the one you posted (gfs) Looks oppisate with a cold start & a warm end as it approaches Scotland area.


With La Nina back & so much open ocean where there should be sea, we may start off with another upside down winter..where the polar vortex can't stay in place slinging weekly cold snaps way too far south..
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37822
W coast of Scotland calling: are we going to get tail end of Maria next weekend, or will it be further north? We've got the annual village beer festival next week, and it's always nice to be able to imbibe outside :-)
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Boring
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Written and posted before I saw Grothar's comment..
Sorry to see you leaving :-( Have a wonderful life.

113 WeatherWx "From levi's blog directly, part of his statement in post #29: I myself am not going to even post in the main blog unless there is a storm threat, because it would be a waste of time otherwise."

Hardly surprising: I woulda recommended that course of action if he'd asked.
Levi32 is in the first year of taking a (hopefully, maths hyperintensive) Physics major. Not for wimps, not for slackers, and definitely not for procrastinators (ie those whose chief interest is outside of educating themselves). PLUS, he's has (to have) a paying job on the side.
Trying to carry on a conversation in this blog means using up a lot of time skimming through a lot of irrelevance. Time he can easily put to better use: he's probably running close to (if not past) the point of sleep-deprivation even without wading through the daily WUnderBlog.

112 daddyjames "Goals are not clear regarding acceptable topics (note, I said topics, not comments) on the blog. What and what is and is not "off limits" in regards to the discussion varies at the whim of the main blogger, which shifts on a daily basis (or even several times a day depending on the degree of perceived threat by a system)."

Actually they're quite clear.
Off-HurricaneSeason, pretty much anything goes, including YouTube embeds of music videos... EXCEPT when there is an on-going weather/geophysics-related EMERGENCY, in which case bloggers should strive to remain on that topic.
During HurricaneSeason, just stay on the topics specificly discussed in Dr.Masters' current blog entry... or hurricane preparedness and past experiences with TropicalCylones.

I've been temp-banned once. Another blogger was being adamantly argumentative about "Alex is a he" and "Alex is a male name". And during a lull in that particular TC's activity and threat level, I posted a bunch of pictures of different well known movie 'Alex'es who were tempestuously female.
Tested the borderline between acceptable and unacceptable, and got tossed into WUjail by "la migra".

Recently during Maria, I got overly longwinded and political (but non-partisanly) in response to a "look at how well the soldiers and vets are treated" comment. It was deleted.
Thing is, I was already "Should I or shouldn't I?" when contemplating on whether to PostComment. The deletion was a "You really shouldn't have."
In other words: when in doubt, don't.

"A recipe for cultural catastrophe within any organization, as we are currently witnessing."

People come and go for a variety of reasons, only a miniscule minority having to do with blog comments.
Oldtimers leaving is never a problem. "If you can't stand the heat, stay outta the kitchen."
What kills a blog forum is a lack of newcomers. Even diehard loyalists don't wanna be hearing nothing but a rehash of what they've already heard.
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Quoting Grothar:

"I will speak ill of no man, and speak all the good I know of everybody."

I leave you with this: Be careful of what you wish for.....


Goodbye everyone. It has been nice.
now listen up old man i did not come back here for you to leave and i never left in the first place just had to step back take a breath
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Quoting Grothar:

"I will speak ill of no man, and speak all the good I know of everybody."

I leave you with this: Be careful of what you wish for.....


Goodbye everyone. It has been nice.

Another one bites the dust. :(
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Quoting daddyjames:


Yes, I agree it is not entitled the tropical weather blog, and Dr. masters certainly is free to put up anything that he wishes to discuss. That i don't question.

but that is certainly not what is communicated in the instructions current just above my head.

"When using Dr. Masters' blog, please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself."

As any behavioral researcher can tell you creating or changing the existing culture is extremely difficult and fraught with many pitfalls. One thing required are clear communication of what is expected and then management actual setting an example.
The "blog culture" that currently exists has been created from the top down, and is rather difficult to ascertain - or, as i said before - pretty schizophrenic.
Goals are not clear regarding acceptable topics (note, I said topics, not comments) on the blog. What and what is and is not "off limits" in regards to the discussion varies at the whim of the main blogger, which shifts on a daily basis (or even several times a day depending on the degree of perceived threat by a system).
A recipe for cultural catastrophe within any organization, as we are currently witnessing.


Again, great insight. I've been on this blog since 2004 lurking and registered for a paid account in 2006 and still trying to figure this blog out.

I'm glad to get back to the topic of the tropics.
Member Since: August 28, 2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 2895
131. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting basti11:



MARIA was a sea rider...she rode the sea most of her life and she took a short pause over newfoundland before she went to her final resting place...


She dumped on PR & other Leeward Islands. Bermuda had Tropical Storm winds from her too.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37822
130. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting 996tt:
I am just curious and god knows I really don't want to stir anything up. Didn't the world just experience a rather cold winter. I understand the summer has been hot in places, but hasn't the winter been more extreme in places. What about climate in South America. Has their winters and summers been as extreme?


The southern half of South America had a little cooler than normal August, the northern 1/2 was warmer than usual. Australia had it's 5th warmest Aug since 1950. New Zealand did have a notable cold blast. The extremes both ways are occurring but many more warm than cold.. an overall lean globally to warm for Aug..land & sea global was 8th hottest Aug. You can check out the global wrap up for Aug here. & here for snow extent..which was actually up more than normal for Southern hemisphere this year. Seems they had extra moisture aloft this year too & well when it is cold..it snows.

By the numbers for just the SH They had a cooler fall to what they have been having but still above normal..that's over, Aug was the southern Hemisphere's 3rd warmest Aug since 1880.

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37822
129. XLR8
Quoting Grothar:

"I will speak ill of no man, and speak all the good I know of everybody."

I leave you with this: Be careful of what you wish for.....


Goodbye everyone. It has been nice.




???????? Don't go I love your posts. Sometimes you are the only voice of reason on here.
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174 Hours

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15144
Quoting Grothar:

"I will speak ill of no man, and speak all the good I know of everybody."

I leave you with this: Be careful of what you wish for.....


Goodbye everyone. It has been nice.


Gro are you ok?
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Quoting Grothar:

"I will speak ill of no man, and speak all the good I know of everybody."

I leave you with this: Be careful of what you wish for.....


Goodbye everyone. It has been nice.


Grothar does this mean you are bailing out also? Not good, not good. I am extremely saddened by this. Will miss you and your humor immensely and wish that I had stepped out of the shadows to introduce myself earlier. Will you be available to contact some other way? or be posting your pearls of wisdom elsewhere?
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Good morning.

Blog update:

Tropical Tidbit for Friday, September 16th, with Video
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"I will speak ill of no man, and speak all the good I know of everybody."

I leave you with this: Be careful of what you wish for.....


Goodbye everyone. It has been nice.
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Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Decent showers south of Bastrop moving north, if it holds together it could knock out all the hot spots in their fire.



glad to hear that boho
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Decent showers south of Bastrop moving north, if it holds together it could knock out all the hot spots in their fire.
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Quoting 996tt:


Preparing a batch of crow soup. Just kidding


That crow soup must be for those who thought Maria was going to be a fish storm. Hitting Newfoundland does not constitute this as being titled as such, therefore those who said it was going to be must partake, LOL. Oddly enough though, Newfoundland has been hit by more hurricanes than the entire coast of the U.S. in the last two years, as unlikely of a scenario as that might be.
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Quoting 996tt:
I am just curious and god knows I really don't want to stir anything up. Didn't the world just experience a rather cold winter. I understand the summer has been hot in places, but hasn't the winter been more extreme in places. What about climate in South America. Has their winters and summers been as extreme?


There were many extreme snow events in America and other midlattitude locations, but the poleward areas saw pretty warm temperatures during parts of the winter. Arctic sea ice extent was the second lowest on record Link. At the very least, I wouldn't call it a "rather cold" winter. It looks like Australia had a colder than normal summer but I believe that was due to copious precipitation.
Dec 2010 Anomalies
Link
Jan 2011 Anomalies
Link
Feb 2011 Anomalies
Link
March 2011 Anomalies
Link
April 2011 Anomalies
Link
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GFS 120 Hours out..CV storm starting to develop

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15144
If it's a slow weather day than why not be open to engage in debate on other topics? This will help and the blog advertisers which will contribute to WU's income... but no way if there's important weather going on..
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storm off the east coast..I wouldnt be surprise if this turns into our first noreaster..

GFS 12Z 54 Hours



69 Hours


75 Hours
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15144
Afternoon All, surprisingly quiet for the middle of September...

Not complaining one bit however. Looking forward to the approaching cool down here in SEFL, it's been dog hot this year.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5273
Quoting hurricanejunky:


Nice post. It is actually called Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog not specifically tropical. Just pointing that out. Not trying to start an argument, for those with itchy trigger fingers on the minus key. Thanks for the insight, I think that is a very accurate assessment, unfortunately.


Yes, I agree it is not entitled the tropical weather blog, and Dr. masters certainly is free to put up anything that he wishes to discuss. That i don't question.

but that is certainly not what is communicated in the instructions current just above my head.

"When using Dr. Masters' blog, please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself."

As any behavioral researcher can tell you creating or changing the existing culture is extremely difficult and fraught with many pitfalls. One thing required are clear communication of what is expected and then management actual setting an example.
The "blog culture" that currently exists has been created from the top down, and is rather difficult to ascertain - or, as i said before - pretty schizophrenic.
Goals are not clear regarding acceptable topics (note, I said topics, not comments) on the blog. What and what is and is not "off limits" in regards to the discussion varies at the whim of the main blogger, which shifts on a daily basis (or even several times a day depending on the degree of perceived threat by a system).
A recipe for cultural catastrophe within any organization, as we are currently witnessing.
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Quoting Bielle:


That's my only hurricane, and I don't want another one.



not my only one but never want to see another like her
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.