Hurricane Maria rushes towards Newfoundland

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:41 PM GMT on September 16, 2011

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Hurricane Maria is bearing down on Newfoundland, Canada, as a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds. The wind shear over Maria turned out to be much lower than was predicted yesterday, allowing the storm to organize into the season's third hurricane. Latest satellite imagery shows that Maria is steadily degrading, with a hole in the storm's southwest eyewall, and the cloud pattern distorted by 30 - 50 knots of wind shear. The eyewall has collapsed, as seen on recent microwave satellite imagery. Maria's very fast forward speed of 45 mph means that only locations on the right (strong) side will experience hurricane force winds. With the center of Maria expected to pass over the extreme southeast tip of Newfoundland, only a small region of the island near Cape Race will see the powerful right-front quadrant of the storm. Winds at Sagona Island on the south shore of Newfoundland were sustained at 50 mph at 7:30 am local time, but have dropped to 37 mph at 9:10 am. Winds in the capital of St. John's have been rising steadily this morning, and were sustained at 37 mph, gusting to 46 mph, at 10:30 am local time. Winds will probably reach sustained speeds of 55 - 65 mph between 1 pm and 5 pm today in St. Johns, causing considerable tree damage and power failures. Radar out of Newfoundland shows the hurricane has been dumping heavy rains over the southeastern portion of the island this morning; rainfall has been under a half inch thus far at most locations, though. Along with wind damage, heavy rains leading to flash flooding are the main threat from Maria; last year, heavy rains of up to 8 inches from Hurricane Igor caused major damage in Newfoundland. Fortunately, Maria's rains are not expected to be as heavy as Igor's. According to the Canadian Hurricane Center, rivers in eastern Newfoundland are currently at average to below average levels, which will limit the amount of flooding. Maria's storm surge will arrive when the normal astronomical tide will be going out, limiting the damage the expected 3-foot storm surge will do.

Yesterday, Maria brought a brief 8-minute period of sustained winds of tropical storm force, 39 mph, to the Bermuda airport. Bermuda picked up 0.20" of rain from Maria.


Figure 1. Radar image of Tropical Storm Maria taken at 10:13 am EDT September 15, 2011. Image credit: Bermuda Weather Service.

Newfoundland's second consecutive year with a hurricane
If Maria strikes Newfoundland as a hurricane, this will be the province's second consecutive year with a hurricane strike, something that has never occurred since hurricane record keeping began in 1851. Last year, Hurricane Igor killed one person on Newfoundland, and damage exceeded $100 million, making Igor the most damaging tropical cyclone in Newfoundland history. A summary of the impact of Igor prepared by Environment Canada put it this way:

"Hurricane Igor and its severe impacts certainly represent a rare event in Newfoundland history which has been described as the worst in memory. In statistical terms, this was effectively a 50 - 100 year event depending on how one chooses to define it. There are no hurricanes/post tropical events of this magnitude striking Newfoundland in the modern era. Hurricane Juan in Nova Scotia was the last Atlantic Canadian hurricane to cause extreme damage. Prior to the naming of hurricanes, the 1935 Newfoundland Hurricane 75 years ago was of similar intensity."


Figure 2. A ravine carved by Hurricane Igor's flood waters washed out the Trans-Canada Highway, isolating Southeast Newfoundland from the rest of the province. Image credit: CBC News.

Elsewhere in the tropics
All of the models have been sporadically predicting development of a tropical wave 5 - 7 days from now between Africa and the Lesser Antilles. The location and timing of the hypothetical storm have been inconsistent, and there is at present no signs of anything brewing. The NOGAPS model continues to predict a strong tropical disturbance or tropical depression could form in the Caribbean 6 - 7 days from now, near Jamaica. None of the other models is supporting this idea, so the NOGAPS model is probably wrong on this scenario. I'll have an update Saturday afternoon.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting JLPR2:


If it fires up tonight we should get 97L. If it manages to develop the lull will be very short.



yess on the lull lol
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Quoting JLPR2:
We should have 97L in the next day or two.

Good looking system. The O name may just go to a Cape Verde-type cyclone. That doesn't happen too often.
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309. JLPR2
Quoting will40:


yes i agree


If it fires up tonight we should get 97L. If it manages to develop the lull will be very short.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8653
Quoting JLPR2:


Yeah, looking nice despite being d-min in the area.


yes i agree
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307. JLPR2
Quoting will40:



is that the yellow circle at NHC?


Yeah, looking nice despite being d-min in the area.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8653
Here's another one. I came to the Keys when I was 8 years old. My dad was in the Navy and we had just come back from Morocco, Africa to Norfolk, Va. We traveled by car down US 1, with two adults and four kids in the car. We slept at rest stops at night and anytime I or anyone needed to go to the bathroom, we pulled off on the side of the road and did our business behind a handy bush.

Anyway, Hurricane Donna had come through Marathon. I remember seeing Marathon and thinking that everything was upside down. All the mobile homes were in the water and all the boats were on land. My dad had to show his orders at each bridge in order to get through the destruction. My Mother had asked me one time if I remembered the pontoon bridge we had to cross. I didn't but there must be a record of it. I do remember the hole in the old seven mile bridge. I remember seeing them put boards down and directing my father to line up the car tires to cross. I think that is when I became scared of heights.

We finally made it to Key West. I remember thinking that nothing happened here. There was no damage or any signs of a storm. When we checked into the motel, we were without water. The break in the bridge broke the water pipeline. So each day my dad would say he is going to look for water, but each night he came home empty handed but loaded with beer. I was still young enough to believe his stories. LOL
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Quoting JLPR2:
We should have 97L in the next day or two.




is that the yellow circle at NHC?
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304. JLPR2
We should have 97L in the next day or two.

Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8653
302. JLPR2
Africa keeps producing.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8653
H.Maria's_6pmGMT_ATCF : Starting 15Sept_6pmGMT and ending 16Sept_6pmGMT

The 4 southwestern line-segments represent HurricaneMaria's path,
the northeasternmost line-segment is the 6hour-long straightline projection for 16Sept_6pmGMT,
(brushes against the dot YYT)
the short ocean-to-coastline dumbbell at 46.360n52.582w-YYT is the endpoint of the straightline projection connected to its nearest airport for the 16Sept_12pmGMT*mapping,
and the short coastline-to-coastline dumbbell at 47.113n54.077w-YYT is the same for the 16Sept_6amGMT*mapping.

Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the
ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 12pmGMT then 6pmGMT :
H.Maria's travel-speed was 54.8mph(88.2k/h) on a heading of 37.6degrees(NE)
(Comparing its max.sus.winds of 65knots to its travel-speed of 47.7knots, I'm surprised that Maria hasn't already been declared extratropical)
H.Maria appears to have made landfall near St.Vincent's,Newfoundland, to be followed by reentry into the Atlantic near St.John's

Copy&paste 47.113n54.077w-yyt, 46.360n52.582w-yyt, 33.7n67.0w-36.8n64.9w, 36.8n64.9w-39.8n62.2w, 39.8n62.2w-42.8n58.2w, 42.8n58.2w-46.5n54.0w, yyt, 42.8n58.2w-50.023n49.204w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info

The previous mapping for 16Sept_12pmGMT

* The alteration of the endpoint of a TropicalCyclone's previous path also changes its previous travel-speed &heading, and the endpoint of its previous straightline projection...
...but I'm choosing to preserve the historicity of the mappings.
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Quoting kwgirl:
Yeah, that's my story. Sorry I didn't sign it. I guess it is too late now.

That's a harrowing story! Glad it all finally worked out. That's the thing about hurricanes, the damage is done in a few hours but the recovery takes months or years. By the way that was your comment number 666, you need to make another comment fast!
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I did`t pay the 10 bucks. but all the crap that has been going on the last week all the people leaving or getting booked of for who know why looks to me like some people have more then one rule to play by so as a long time lurker I thank the GOOD PEOPLE on here for there time. and I leave you to your trolls and fighting

Steve
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Yeesh, the posting rate is slower than I woulda thought possible with a landfalling hurricane as topic.
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Quoting hurricanejunky:


Here is one she posted in reply to my Hurricane Wilma story...

Hey KW girl, you never signed it so you'll have to verify authenticity to all who require it...LOL!
Yeah, that's my story. Sorry I didn't sign it. I guess it is too late now.
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296. JLPR2
Nogaps says two storms in the Atl.


None of the models are being consistent.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8653
welcome Klolly
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Quoting hurricanejunky:


Here is one she posted in reply to my Hurricane Wilma story...

Hey KW girl, you never signed it so you'll have to verify authenticity to all who require it...LOL!


Thanks! Hit the Jackpot for hurricane stories. Should keep me entertained for a while while waiting for the tropics to heat up again (which they will, all the models are showing a Cape Verde storm by next week).
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Quoting will40:
Link


Klolly check out this site it has good info on hurricanes

Cool link will, thanks.
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288. JLPR2 8:08 PM GMT on September 16, 2011


yessssssssss exactly
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288. JLPR2
You know what's awesome about today's entry?

All the climate change posts are out of topic therefore anyone speaking of it could get banned. Yeah! XD
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8653
287. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting basti11:



my keyword is MOST OF HER LIFE A SEA RIDER...


If we quantify "life" as time spent alive..most of that was spent dumping on islands..look at the tracking map..pretty quick pace through the Central Atlantic..slowed way down around the islands..notice the little hurricane symbols are stacked on each other. Didn't finish dumping on PR til she reached the lat of FL then very quickly covered the open ocean & Bermuda.
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Since this blog has the strong tendency to always get out of hand when discussing global warming, just know that my blog is always open for you guys to post. It'll be monitored far better than "TheMain" and will only consist of tropical discussions.

I've been busy lately though, so unless something important is brewing...blog entries will be scarce.
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Quoting Klolly23:

I live in Sarasota, and I sure remember Gabrielle. Tree went through a friends house. Strongest storm I've experienced in my 27 years of living in Sarasota.

I live in Largo, and it was not that bad here, but I remember going to the Myakka River State Park and it surely did a number on the board walk by the lake!

By the way thinking back on 2004 and sitting in a dark house after all the shutters were in place, I found in Lowe's this transparent polycarbonate hurricane panes. They have this ribbed structure. Anybody actually used these? They looked like they may be good to let some light in.
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Quoting basti11:



my keyword is MOST OF HER LIFE A SEA RIDER...


So I suppose flooding rains and mudslides in Puerto Rico and the other islands don't count?
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6876
Quoting Huracaneer:


I for one love to hear hurricane anecdotes, specially as they relate to preparation and lessons learned (I will rather learn by other peoples experiences than having to make mistakes to learn). So please share with us your information, it's certainly a lot more fun and useful than the endless AGW debate.


Here is one she posted in reply to my Hurricane Wilma story...

Hey KW girl, you never signed it so you'll have to verify authenticity to all who require it...LOL!
Member Since: August 28, 2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 2895
Link


Klolly check out this site it has good info on hurricanes
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Quoting Huracaneer:
Well, let's see if I can get a discussion going on hurricane anecdotes. The Tampa Bay area does not get hit very often by direct hurricanes or even tropical storms. But in 2001 a tropical storm hit us directly and it was barely in the news, even thou it was quite strong. The storm was Gabrielle, which hit near Sarasota with 70 mile an hour winds. Normally this would make top news BUT the time frame was 9/14 so it was nearly overlooked, even locally, against the backdrop of the terrorist attacks.

I live in Sarasota, and I sure remember Gabrielle. Tree went through a friends house. Strongest storm I've experienced in my 27 years of living in Sarasota.
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Quoting Neapolitan:

I believe you missed my point, then, so please allow me to try once again. To expand on your story: though many scientists of the day decided in a mostly genial and democratic fashion that the world was flat, it wasn't. IOW, the practice of science may vary based on which way the wind is blowing at a particular time, but the absolutes of science--in this case, the truth of the roundness of the planet--aren't moved a bit by whether anyone believes them or not.

Nature rules. All else comes after.


Preach on brother Jim! I agree...
Member Since: August 28, 2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 2895
most welcome Klolly
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Quoting will40:
One excellent example of this addition of a storm's rotational and forward speeds is "The Long Island Express," the great hurricane of 1938. The 70 mph forward speed of the storm, the fastest known forward speed ever recorded, produced hurricane wind speeds that exceeded 180 mph in eastern Long Island and New England.

Wow that's unbelievable! Thank you all for your input.
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Quoting SamWells:


For T.S. "Don" I implemented the plan, took in all the plants and yard stuff, screwed on some plywood on a few leaky doors and windows, bought the gas, food, water, pet food, and booze, and went down to the beach on South Padre Island - which for me is across the street. Impressive gray clouds, but as you know the storm fizzled right in front of our eyes. Never saw a storm go poof so fast. Funny, it is so dry some of us go back to the beach, wondering when a gray cloud will come overhead.


That is in my opinion one of the weirdest tropical related things I have seen. The way Don just evaporated as it hit the Great Wall of Texas Drought was totally amazing!
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When using Dr. Masters' blog, please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself. Please do not engage in personal attacks or bickering. Material not conforming to these standards should be flagged with the button and ignored.
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Quoting daddyjames:


Scientists, at one time, did agree that the world was flat. And that was the prevailing theory for a very long time.


Calling them "scientists" might be debatable. I took an interesting course on the history of science. The central theme of the course was that science originated as philosophy, which in many ways was inter-connected with theology. In those times science was also evolving at different paces (and set on differing beliefs) across different cultures. Science wasn't the same everywhere and the flat earth hypothesis was not necessarily held by every part of the world simultaneously. Making comparisons between today's science and "science" of those times can become rather shaky...
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Well, let's see if I can get a discussion going on hurricane anecdotes. The Tampa Bay area does not get hit very often by direct hurricanes or even tropical storms. But in 2001 a tropical storm hit us directly and it was barely in the news, even thou it was quite strong. The storm was Gabrielle, which hit near Sarasota with 70 mile an hour winds. Normally this would make top news BUT the time frame was 9/14 so it was nearly overlooked, even locally, against the backdrop of the terrorist attacks.
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Quoting Neapolitan:

I believe you missed my point, then, so please allow me to try once again. To expand on your story: though many scientists of the day decided in a genial and democratic fashion that the world was flat, it wasn't. IOW, the practice of science may vary based on which way the wind is blowing at a particular time, but the absolutes of science--in this case, the truth of the roundness of the planet--aren't moved a bit by whether anyone believes them or not.

Nature rules. All else comes after.


So... now that so many scientist agree about AGW, it could be found later that they were all wrong. The science\reality of the situation could be that we're in a warming phase that's part of Earth's natural cycle, part of the sun cycles, or any other possibility that we've never fathomed.

Kind of like the Earth being flat.

This is the point so many non AGW supporters try to make, and it's often lost or twisted.

We also used to only know about 9 of our planets.

Mary's violet eyes make John stay up nights. (period) I remember when the period was added for Pluto, and then years later subsequent discussion about whether Pluto was technically a planet. I believe now it's not considered a planet.

Our understanding of these things is constantly evolving... I have a hard time with the AGW "extremists" blindly taking what we're experiencing today as a one-way direction to hot planet hell unless we do something about it.

I am ok with the ideology of if we do something about it or at least attempt to do something about it, we haven't really lost anything if AGW turns out to be not true. If we don't do something about it and AGW is true then we're in trouble.

To hear it from most on this site, though, this is law, it's absolute, and there is no turning back unless we humans change the ways we live.

I'm sorry, but that's hogwash. Not enough time has passed for us to KNOW we're on a one-way street. Believing we are, at this point, I think is ok. Agreeing with what many of the AGW supporting scientists are saying, sure! Tons of positive evidence supporting AGW. If more AGW supporters would frame their thinking like this, I'd be more willing to listen because it shows an open mind. But, I've found that very few in this argument have an open mind. It's all or none...both sides.

Where is the middle ground?

I'm in the 90% AGW believer category, but I'm not going to give up the remaining 10% until I walk out the front door and catch on fire, St. George Island is under water, or we're talking about CAT6 hurricanes, regularly.

And no amount of being brow-beaten by Nea's amazing linguistics is going to take my 10% away. :-)

*back to lurking*
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Quoting wial:


Yeah but *after* Galileo was proved right, not a lot of scientists went back to the obsolete position. AGW, not too long ago the minority position, gets proven over and over every day, and only those with the moral compass of tobacco industry PR flaks question it now, especially considering the incredible danger we are in. The tobacco industry murdered hundreds of millions, but now now all life is at stake. Do you really want your immediate descendants to have to live in sauna-like conditions? How can you even consider risking that, when the warnings are clear as day? Seems criminal, to me.


Extreme hyperbole much? People like you are the ones driving paying members from this website.

I'm done, Wunderground, you've lost another paying member.
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One excellent example of this addition of a storm's rotational and forward speeds is "The Long Island Express," the great hurricane of 1938. The 70 mph forward speed of the storm, the fastest known forward speed ever recorded, produced hurricane wind speeds that exceeded 180 mph in eastern Long Island and New England.
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2:00PM Advisory
*Click images to magnify (images can further be magnified in Link Window by clicking anywhere on it)

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Shame on you...not talking about the storm that made landfall seven years ago today. It was only the 5th costliest hurricane in US history.



Ivan.
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Quoting Huracaneer:


I for one love to hear hurricane anecdotes, specially as they relate to preparation and lessons learned (I will rather learn by other peoples experiences than having to make mistakes to learn). So please share with us your information, it's certainly a lot more fun and useful than the endless AGW debate.


For T.S. "Don" I implemented the plan, took in all the plants and yard stuff, screwed on some plywood on a few leaky doors and windows, bought the gas, food, water, pet food, and booze, and went down to the beach on South Padre Island - which for me is across the street. Impressive gray clouds, but as you know the storm fizzled right in front of our eyes. Never saw a storm go poof so fast. Funny, it is so dry some of us go back to the beach, wondering when a gray cloud will come overhead.
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When I have had strong conflicting opinions (which was only once) with Dr. Masters I wrote him personally and he was very courteous.

As for the AGW topic, I have no theory one way or the other so I stay away from the subject. Therefore I do what someone here suggested to someone else which is when he gets on the topic of global warming I breeze on past it.

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the forward speed adds to winds on the north side of the storm, while the forward speed subtracts from winds on the south side.
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Quoting daddyjames:


Actually, science is very much a democracy, and perhaps the oldest form of such in our modern society.
It relies on someone postulating a theory to explain an observation(s), design hypotheses to test that theory, gather and interpret the data, and presents evidence of whether there is support for the theory for peer review. If in the judgement of fellow peers versed in the science, the tests are rigorous enough, and designed appropriately to address the hypothesis postulated and the results interpreted appropriately, then the results are published for an open discussion and debate. Whether or not a theory ultimately becomes a law is when the evidence presented overwhelmingly supports the theory postulated, and is generally accepted by the scientific community that the theory cannot be disproven.

Ok really off to work.


I perhaps should have clarified that I meant "democracy from the masses." As in, the general populous doesn't get to vote on what science they believe in or not. Science gets re-tested, built upon, or ignored by the rest of the educated masses. Although somewhat similar to democracy, I wouldn't exactly view it as that simple.
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264. wial
Quoting WeatherWx:


Just like many scientists were so sure Galileo was wrong even though he was the minority viewpoint, he was found to be right. Thanks for proving my point neo.


Yeah but *after* Galileo was proved right, not a lot of scientists went back to the obsolete position. AGW, not too long ago the minority position, gets proven over and over every day, and only those with the moral compass of tobacco industry PR flaks question it now, especially considering the incredible danger we are in. The tobacco industry murdered hundreds of millions, but now now all life is at stake. Do you really want your immediate descendants to have to live in sauna-like conditions? How can you even consider risking that, when the warnings are clear as day? Seems criminal, to me.
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Quoting Klolly23:

Wouldn't that make her wind impacts stronger? Obliviously not as long lasting...TIA


Yes and no. You would add the forward speed to the wind speed on the east side but you would need to subtract the forward speed from the wind speed on the west side.

I believe that is correct. Would someone double check these figures for me?
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Quoting Klolly23:

Wouldn't that make her wind impacts stronger? Obliviously not as long lasting...TIA
yea but almost like a tornado come through for a little while and its over in less than an hour.
Member Since: July 25, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2576

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.