Hurricane Maria rushes towards Newfoundland

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:41 PM GMT on September 16, 2011

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Hurricane Maria is bearing down on Newfoundland, Canada, as a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds. The wind shear over Maria turned out to be much lower than was predicted yesterday, allowing the storm to organize into the season's third hurricane. Latest satellite imagery shows that Maria is steadily degrading, with a hole in the storm's southwest eyewall, and the cloud pattern distorted by 30 - 50 knots of wind shear. The eyewall has collapsed, as seen on recent microwave satellite imagery. Maria's very fast forward speed of 45 mph means that only locations on the right (strong) side will experience hurricane force winds. With the center of Maria expected to pass over the extreme southeast tip of Newfoundland, only a small region of the island near Cape Race will see the powerful right-front quadrant of the storm. Winds at Sagona Island on the south shore of Newfoundland were sustained at 50 mph at 7:30 am local time, but have dropped to 37 mph at 9:10 am. Winds in the capital of St. John's have been rising steadily this morning, and were sustained at 37 mph, gusting to 46 mph, at 10:30 am local time. Winds will probably reach sustained speeds of 55 - 65 mph between 1 pm and 5 pm today in St. Johns, causing considerable tree damage and power failures. Radar out of Newfoundland shows the hurricane has been dumping heavy rains over the southeastern portion of the island this morning; rainfall has been under a half inch thus far at most locations, though. Along with wind damage, heavy rains leading to flash flooding are the main threat from Maria; last year, heavy rains of up to 8 inches from Hurricane Igor caused major damage in Newfoundland. Fortunately, Maria's rains are not expected to be as heavy as Igor's. According to the Canadian Hurricane Center, rivers in eastern Newfoundland are currently at average to below average levels, which will limit the amount of flooding. Maria's storm surge will arrive when the normal astronomical tide will be going out, limiting the damage the expected 3-foot storm surge will do.

Yesterday, Maria brought a brief 8-minute period of sustained winds of tropical storm force, 39 mph, to the Bermuda airport. Bermuda picked up 0.20" of rain from Maria.


Figure 1. Radar image of Tropical Storm Maria taken at 10:13 am EDT September 15, 2011. Image credit: Bermuda Weather Service.

Newfoundland's second consecutive year with a hurricane
If Maria strikes Newfoundland as a hurricane, this will be the province's second consecutive year with a hurricane strike, something that has never occurred since hurricane record keeping began in 1851. Last year, Hurricane Igor killed one person on Newfoundland, and damage exceeded $100 million, making Igor the most damaging tropical cyclone in Newfoundland history. A summary of the impact of Igor prepared by Environment Canada put it this way:

"Hurricane Igor and its severe impacts certainly represent a rare event in Newfoundland history which has been described as the worst in memory. In statistical terms, this was effectively a 50 - 100 year event depending on how one chooses to define it. There are no hurricanes/post tropical events of this magnitude striking Newfoundland in the modern era. Hurricane Juan in Nova Scotia was the last Atlantic Canadian hurricane to cause extreme damage. Prior to the naming of hurricanes, the 1935 Newfoundland Hurricane 75 years ago was of similar intensity."


Figure 2. A ravine carved by Hurricane Igor's flood waters washed out the Trans-Canada Highway, isolating Southeast Newfoundland from the rest of the province. Image credit: CBC News.

Elsewhere in the tropics
All of the models have been sporadically predicting development of a tropical wave 5 - 7 days from now between Africa and the Lesser Antilles. The location and timing of the hypothetical storm have been inconsistent, and there is at present no signs of anything brewing. The NOGAPS model continues to predict a strong tropical disturbance or tropical depression could form in the Caribbean 6 - 7 days from now, near Jamaica. None of the other models is supporting this idea, so the NOGAPS model is probably wrong on this scenario. I'll have an update Saturday afternoon.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting MANYMOREGOOFSTOCOME:
i trust the models up to 1 hour after that its a crap shoot


*facepalm*
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358. JLPR2
Quoting petewxwatcher:


Of course. Beyond a week I don't trust models at all. And with reservations after 4 days.


Yeah, this year I'm trusting the GFS till 90hrs.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
Quoting tropicfreak:


Yep, so we had Arlene making landfall in Mexico.
Bret in the Bahamas
Cindy OTS
Don fizzled at the TX coast, nevertheless it did manage to make landfall.
Emily affected Hispanola, and later the Bahamas when she regenerated.
Franklin OTS
Gert OTS, but passed very close to Bermuda.
Harvey made landfall in Belize, and affected Central America and Mexico
Irene affected the Lessler Antillies, Puerto Rico, Hispanola, Bahamas, and made landfall in NC and impacted the Mid Atlantic and New England.
Jose was a brief TS, OTS but brushed Bermuda.
Katia OTS, TS force winds for Bermuda.
Lee made landfall in LA, and the remnants spread across the eastern 3rd of the country.
Maria drenched the Greater Antillies and Bahamas, brushed Bermuda, and made landfall in the Canadian Maritimes.
Nate made landfall in Mexico as a TS.




that about sums it all up
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Quoting Tazmanian:



POOF
im stating opinions buddy so dont poof me....
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St. John's Int'l Airport
Date: 6:30 PM NDT Friday 16 September 2011
Condition: Mostly Cloudy
Pressure: 99.2 kPa
Tendency: rising
Visibility: 24 km
Air Quality Health Index: 1

Temperature: 18.3°C
Dewpoint: 16.7°C
Humidity: 90 %
Wind: WSW 52 gust 76 km/h
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Keeper would normally do this, but in the past hour, there have been three earthquakes off the eastern coast of Japan a bit north of March's monster: a 5.2, a 5.5, and a 6.6.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13800
Quoting JLPR2:


Yes, at the very last frames the storm seems to be turning to the north.

But being so far out it isn't accurate, it will probably be gone in the next run, or at a different location.


Of course. Beyond a week I don't trust models at all. And with reservations after 4 days.
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Quoting Tazmanian:






we have had a vary few storms this year that went out too see fully with out hiting one on the way out


Yep, so we had Arlene (TS) making landfall in Mexico.
Bret(TS) in the Bahamas
Cindy(TS) OTS
Don(TS) fizzled at the TX coast, nevertheless it did manage to make landfall.
Emily (TS) affected Hispanola, and later the Bahamas when she regenerated.
Franklin (TS) OTS
Gert (TS) OTS, but passed very close to Bermuda.
Harvey, a TS made landfall in Belize, and affected Central America and Mexico
Irene (H) affected the Lessler Antillies, Puerto Rico, Hispanola, Bahamas, and made landfall in NC and impacted the Mid Atlantic and New England.
Jose was a brief TS, OTS but brushed Bermuda.
Katia(H) OTS, TS force winds for Bermuda.
Lee (TS) made landfall in LA, and the remnants spread across the eastern 3rd of the country.
Maria(H) drenched the Greater Antillies and Bahamas, brushed Bermuda, and made landfall in the Canadian Maritimes.
Nate made landfall in Mexico as a TS.
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Quoting Chicklit:


On what basis?
end of the run you can already see a big dip in the jetstream on the east coast. the storm is over cuba. steering flow becomes week. the jet is orianted sw to ne. this implies a north east movement. im just stating facts off the model run yet this solution is 16 days out and is hard to pinpoint exactly what will happen?
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350. JLPR2
Quoting petewxwatcher:


That run also depicts a trough to the west. If that run is completely accurate that storm would head north into Florida.


Yes, at the very last frames the storm seems to be turning to the north.

But being so far out it isn't accurate, it will probably be gone in the next run, or at a different location.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
16 days out end of run notice the northward motion A TROUGH TRYING TO RECURVE IT... ONCE AGAIN ANYTHING OFF AFRICA WILL HAVE A 1 IN 80 CHANCE OF MAKING IT ALL THE WAY TO THE US. its pretty hard.


On what basis?
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Quoting Tazmanian:






we have had a vary few storms this year that went out too see fully with out hiting one on the way out
yeah only 1. and we are a HYPERACTIVE SEASON. 2004 had 15 storms we r going to have 19 -23 and yet 2004 got ivan charley jeane frances. hurricane irene ESCAPED the trough that why it didnt turn out. guess people in the NE should be prepared after irene because 55 deaths isnt a small number..
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Because of Hurricane Igor, which was reaching its peak yesterday or today.


Julia and Karl also made contributions.
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Quoting JLPR2:


Look at the model run before posting.
16 days out end of run notice the northward motion A TROUGH TRYING TO RECURVE IT... ONCE AGAIN ANYTHING OFF AFRICA WILL HAVE A 1 IN 80 CHANCE OF MAKING IT ALL THE WAY TO THE US. its pretty hard.
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Quoting petewxwatcher:


There was a big burst of ACE last year about this time. Almost 30 points in 3 days.


Because of Hurricane Igor, which was reaching its peak yesterday or today.
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Quoting JLPR2:


Look at the model run before posting.


That run also depicts a trough to the west. If that run is completely accurate that storm would head north into Florida.
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Nice job, Neapolitan.
Looks like someone's doing their homework!
Also looks like one of Maria's outer bands in NE of this TATLWVLOOP.
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Quoting JLPR2:


Look at the model run before posting.


that is about same area NOGAPS is showing
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340. JLPR2
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
haha GFS recurves all the systems.. man same old stuff again lol i wanna see a big come farther west into texas becuase i think theve had enough of the drought


Look at the model run before posting.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


I believe the ACE this time last year was lower than what it was now..I know it was close anyways.


There was a big burst of ACE last year about this time. Almost 30 points in 3 days.
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Quoting wunderweatherman123:
haha GFS recurves all the systems.. man same old stuff again lol i wanna see a big come farther west into texas becuase i think theve had enough of the drought






we have had a vary few storms this year that went out too see fully with out hiting one on the way out
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haha GFS recurves all the systems.. man same old stuff again lol i wanna see a big come farther west into texas becuase i think theve had enough of the drought
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Quoting basti11:



in your dreams evidently you havent looked at all the dust waiting..and the ull that is waiting to destroy it...cape verdes season is finished...start looking to the western caribbean now...


That ULL is going to move away WAY ahead of pre 97L. And shear is low around the AOI so I don't know what you are seeing.
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Quoting JLPR2:


Interestingly the GFS shows 3 more storms in the CATL. This season could end up being a very weird one.
Indeed. The Euro also has Philippe developing behind Ophelia. Still no signs of anything developing in the Caribbean, however.

But as long as they keep heading out to sea...keep em' coming Africa!
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Quoting Neapolitan:
Now that Maria has gone post-tropical, I thought I'd present the current ACE rankings for 2011:


KATIA: 24.8375
IRENE: 20.3425
MARIA: 8.6700
BRET: 2.9450
NATE: 2.8225
ARLENE: 1.9875
EMILY: 1.9875
CINDY: 1.8800
LEE: 1.7050
DON: 1.7000
GERT: 1.6025
HARVEY: 1.2350
JOSE: 0.5275
FRANKLIN: 0.4050
----------------
TOTAL: 72.6475

For the record, 2011 has now surpassed four of the seasons since 1995 where ACE is concerned: 1997, 2002, 2007, and 2009. (Next up is 2006 with 79). 2011 has also accumulated more ACE than 21 of the previous 61 seasons (that is, since 1950). The average over that time is 102.26, and the median value has been 88.

This seasons's 14 named storms has been equaled five times since 1950 (1953, 1990, 1998, 2000, and 2004). Only eight seasons since 1950 have had more than 14 named storms.

For the record, I still believe 2011 will produce another six to eight storms. But we'll see...


I believe the ACE this time last year was lower than what it was now..I know it was close anyways.
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Quoting kwgirl:
Yeah, that's my story. Sorry I didn't sign it. I guess it is too late now.


I signed it for you...
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Quoting aspectre:
A closer look at HurricaneMaria's 6hour-long straightline projection crossing over NovaScotia.

Copy&paste 47.113n54.077w, yyt, 46.360n52.582w, 46.5n54.0w-50.023n49.204w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info.
Copy&paste yyt airport into GoogleMaps for a more detailed adjustable-scaled look at NovaScotia.


That's not Nova Scotia...
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Quoting JLPR2:


Interestingly the GFS shows 3 more storms in the CATL. This season could end up being a very weird one.


i looked again and you right but it does show one around the Bahamas at the end of run
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Now that Maria has gone post-tropical, I thought I'd present the current ACE rankings for 2011:


KATIA: 24.8375
IRENE: 20.3425
MARIA: 8.6700
BRET: 2.9450
NATE: 2.8225
ARLENE: 1.9875
EMILY: 1.9875
CINDY: 1.8800
LEE: 1.7050
DON: 1.7000
GERT: 1.6025
HARVEY: 1.2350
JOSE: 0.5275
FRANKLIN: 0.4050
----------------
TOTAL: 72.6475

For the record, 2011 has now surpassed four of the seasons since 1995 where ACE is concerned: 1997, 2002, 2007, and 2009. (Next up is 2006 with 79). 2011 has also accumulated more ACE than 21 of the previous 61 seasons (that is, since 1950). The average over that time is 102.26, and the median value has been 88.

This seasons's 14 named storms has been equaled five times since 1950 (1953, 1990, 1998, 2000, and 2004). Only eight seasons since 1950 have had more than 14 named storms.

For the record, I still believe 2011 will produce another six to eight storms. But we'll see...
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13800


It's starting out pretty low so may have a chance against the projected wind shear. Also may be stronger earlier than expected.

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Have a nice weekend all. I think we see a little development around 10n 45w late this weekend. If you must, have a nice GWW. Last W for war of course.
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327. JLPR2
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Good looking system. The O name may just go to a Cape Verde-type cyclone. That doesn't happen too often.


Interestingly the GFS shows 3 more storms in the CATL. This season could end up being a very weird one.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
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Quoting JLPR2:


Yeah, it's gone.


ok
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324. JLPR2
Quoting will40:


the 12z?


Yeah, it's gone.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
Looks like the lull has lapsed.

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You meant Newfoundland :)

Quoting aspectre:
A closer look at HurricaneMaria's 6hour-long straightline projection crossing over NovaScotia.

Copy&paste 47.113n54.077w, yyt, 46.360n52.582w, 46.5n54.0w-50.023n49.204w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info.
Copy&paste yyt airport into GoogleMaps for a more detailed adjustable-scaled look at NovaScotia.
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Quoting JLPR2:


The Nogaps pretty much dropped it too.


the 12z?
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320. JLPR2
Quoting will40:


NOGAPS only one developing anything there it looks like


The Nogaps pretty much dropped it too.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
Maria's tale has finally ended.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Good looking system. The O name may just go to a Cape Verde-type cyclone. That doesn't happen to often.

I don't think it has ever happened before. Not between 1980-2010 anyways. And considering very few seasons get that far down the list, it wouldn't be hard to believe.
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Quoting rmbjoe1954:
Wow. It sounds like I've stepped into a war zone. So what is the latest on any development in the Caribbean?


NOGAPS only one developing anything there it looks like
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Well everyone have a good night and good weekend. Follow the "Golden Rule" and maybe the discussion will be a little bit more respectful. This is the Poker Run weekend for bikers down here so I think I will take a stroll down Duval to see some of the hardware. See ya'll on Monday.
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Wow. It sounds like I've stepped into a war zone. So what is the latest on any development in the Caribbean?
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Quoting JLPR2:
We should have 97L in the next day or two.

azores islands watch out
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A closer look at HurricaneMaria's 6hour-long straightline projection crossing over Newfoundland.

Copy&paste 47.113n54.077w, yyt, 46.360n52.582w, 46.5n54.0w-50.023n49.204w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info.
Copy&paste yyt airport into GoogleMaps for a more detailed adjustable-scaled look at Newfoundland.
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Quoting JLPR2:


If it fires up tonight we should get 97L. If it manages to develop the lull will be very short.



yess on the lull lol
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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